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Randy Dobnak’s story is well documented. An Uber driver turned 2019 postseason starter in New York against the Yankees, it’s been a while since we have seen him in a Twins uniform. Out of the big leagues since 2021, the 29-year-old is now a dad with a whole new bag of tricks.
Although he has missed portions of recent seasons and dealt with a finger ligament issue that sapped his effectiveness, he couldn’t look better than he does right now. The fastball has never been his go-to pitch, but he’s sitting around 93 mph this season and pairing it with an enhanced changeup. After spending countless hours in the lab this offseason, the changeup was shown off this spring, and he’s throwing it nearly 30% of the time.
Pitching for the Saints this season, Dobnak is seeing more than just positive surface level results. With a chase rate above 32%, he is forcing opposing hitters to expand the zone at a near-career-high rate. His 12.5% whiff rate is well above his career average, and his 23% strikeout rate is solid as well. A ground ball master, Dobnak has gotten that part of his game back as well, inducing balls on the ground nearly 60% of the time.
All of these results also come with the caveat that it was a slow start to the year. As he looked to settle in with the new repertoire, Dobnak owned a 5.96 ERA across his first 25 2/3 innings. The strikeouts were there, but so too were walks and too much contact. However, across his last 15 outings, a period of 74 innings, Dobnak owns a 2.80 ERA with 73 strikeouts. Since his 10-strikeout game on June 15, Dobnak has ripped off a run of eight starts with a 1.70 ERA.
When Chris Paddack went on the shelf with a forearm strain for the Twins, an opening popped up in the rotation. That was handed to top pitching prospect David Festa, who struggled in his first two turns. He was great following Steven Okert’s mess as the opener, and he certainly earned another chance after besting a tough Phillies lineup. Beyond that though, Dobnak has all but forced his way back in.
This isn’t just a fun story anymore, and Dobnak isn’t out to make a brief appearance. As was the case before an odd injury that changed his career trajectory, he is capable of showing that there’s a high-quality big league pitcher ready to compete. The Twins would need to make room on the 40-man roster, and that’s difficult with the current construction. Still, Dobnak is on a five-year deal that runs through 2025 and includes two team options. Finding a way to explore a full-circle moment should be part of the plan.
It shouldn’t be difficult to root for a guy who has dealt with so much adversity and continued to work his way through it. It becomes a whole lot easier to call for a move when the performance warrants it as well. It’s not difficult to argue that Dobnak has been one of the best pitchers across Minnesota’s entire system this season. That may not have been expected, but it’s now the reality that we’re dealing with.
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