I Still Believe in Aaron Sabato (And You Should, Too!)

[Matthew Taylor]

Once a promising prospect, Aaron Sabato fell off of everyone’s radar following three disappointing Minor League seasons. After a strong showcase in the Arizona Fall League and a promising start to his Minor League season in 2024, Sabato is showing why we shouldn’t give up on him yet.

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

If you asked Minnesota Twins fans about Aaron Sabato a year ago, you'd likely hear a mix of frustration and disappointment. The 27th overall pick in the 2020 draft was supposed to be a safe bet at the plate. He may not have had the upside of an up-the-middle, do-it-all player, but his massive raw power and a 6-foot-2, 230-pound frame to go along with his patient approach at the plate made him someone intriguing as a bat-first first baseman/designated hitter. 

Drafted out of the University of North Carolina, Sabato's college numbers were nothing short of incredible. In 2019 and 2020, he posted OPS figures of 1.149 and 1.186, respectively, and hit 46 extra-base hits in 64 games during his freshman season alone, boasting a slugging percentage that flirted with .700. 

Given his impressive college stats and an advanced age of 21 at the time of the draft, Sabato seemed destined for Major League success. However, his transition to professional baseball has been anything but smooth. In his first three full seasons in the Minors, Sabato's OPS languished in the 700s, and his strikeout rate was much higher than we saw in college, with strikeout percentages consistently over 30. The power-hitting prospect who once looked like a can't-miss player at the plate was now a shell of his college self, struggling to find his footing.

The fall from grace was steep enough that the Twins opted not to add Sabato to their 40-man roster last offseason, exposing him to the Rule 5 draft. The potential for another team to snap up a former first-round pick was real, but no one took the bait, and Sabato remained with Minnesota. It seemed like the writing was on the wall for Sabato's career with the Twins, but things have changed over the past eight months.

Sabato found his stride in the Arizona Fall League last fall, posting a .905 OPS with seven home runs in 18 games. This resurgence was no fluke. Sabato has been tearing it up in Double-A Wichita by carrying that momentum into the current season. Through 31 games, he has a .837 OPS with 13 extra-base hits. Since June 1, he's been even hotter, posting a .925 OPS with five home runs in 13 games. This is the Aaron Sabato we've been waiting for.

Adding to the optimism, in Triple-A this season, Sabato has trimmed his strikeout rate to 26.9%—a massive improvement after posting seasons in the 30s every year since being drafted. Sabato is pulling the ball more than he ever has before, now doing so 54% of the time, helping him drive the ball more than he has in previous seasons.

At 25, Sabato may have passed the prime window to be considered a top prospect, but that doesn't mean his value is gone. He still possesses the first-round pedigree, the ability to get on base at a solid 34% rate, and, most importantly, the raw power that every team in the MLB covets. His recent performance should prompt the Twins to reconsider their stance on him.

The Twins must decide whether to add Sabato to the 40-man roster this offseason to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. While leaving him off last year was an easy choice given his struggles, his performance this year makes that decision much harder. Sabato will soon earn a promotion to Triple-A, where the Twins can better understand his readiness for the big leagues.

Sabato will likely never live up to his first-round draft selection, where he was taken four years ago. He may never even end up being a full-time Major League Baseball player. But if we have seen anything from the Minnesota Twins this season, you can never have too many bats in your organization to call up, especially ones with the pop that Sabato presents. And with many of the Twins up and coming players coming from the left side of the plate (Emmanuel Rodriguez, Matt Wallner, Edouard Julien), a player with Sabato's bat to come up even as a platoon first baseman/designated hitter is something of value.

Power-hitting bats are always in demand, and Sabato's resurgence suggests he could still fill that role, even if in a limited capacity. The journey hasn't been easy, and Sabato still may never make it to the Big Leagues with the Twins, but his performance this season has given the Twins a reason to see what they have in their former first rounder. There's still plenty of reason to believe in Aaron Sabato.

Do you still believe in Aaron Sabato as a prospect for the Minnesota Twins? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!

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[Alex Wilde]

I believe in him more than Cavaco…

[jmlease1]

Complicated on Sabato. While the overall numbers at the AFL were ok, there were some of the same concerns with him inside them: low contact rates, really high Ks, low BA. He certainly doing better this season in AA, but I would hope that a 25-year old in AA repeating a level would show improvement or he'd be looking at the end of his career. It's good to see the improve contact rates and lower Ks, but he's also had to lose a little of patience and isn't piling up the walks quite as well. 

He's going to be a hard call for the 40-man next season; Twins are facing a bit of a crunch there. Sabato doesn't add anything on the defensive end (mediocre 1B); he absolutely has to hit to have value. Texas league is also a hitters environment...is he hitting enough? It'd be nice to get some value out of Sabato, who was bordering on bust territory. He's had a good stretch, but I'm not sold yet.

[DaveW44]

Your article states

Adding to the optimism, in Triple-A this season, Sabato has trimmed his strikeout rate to 26.9%

he is till in double A, not triple A. I would be more sold if he were putting up these stats in triple A. 

[mikelink45]

Not a believer!  Sorry AA at 25 and just figuring things out.  He will probably make the Majors for a few years, but my expectations are quite low. 

[Doctor Gast]

47 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Complicated on Sabato. While the overall numbers at the AFL were ok, there were some of the same concerns with him inside them: low contact rates, really high Ks, low BA. He certainly doing better this season in AA, but I would hope that a 25-year old in AA repeating a level would show improvement or he'd be looking at the end of his career. It's good to see the improve contact rates and lower Ks, but he's also had to lose a little of patience and isn't piling up the walks quite as well. 

He's going to be a hard call for the 40-man next season; Twins are facing a bit of a crunch there. Sabato doesn't add anything on the defensive end (mediocre 1B); he absolutely has to hit to have value. Texas league is also a hitters environment...is he hitting enough? It'd be nice to get some value out of Sabato, who was bordering on bust territory. He's had a good stretch, but I'm not sold yet.

I'm far from being sold on Sabato. I wouldn't have been disappointed if he was taken in the rule 5 draft. For being a bat 1st/ no glove 1st round draftee, the bar for offense production has to be very high. Sabato hasn't come close to meeting that bar. His low contact & high SO rate history has been depressing even though he has improved them a little, I can see the pull-happy Sabato having problems in the MLB much like Buxton now but worse. Sabato has seen some success at his level in the MiLB but he really has to turn it up to ever make the MLB.

[terrydactyls]

I am so high on Sabato that I think he should be part of every trade package the Twins put together when searching for trade deadline help.

Now, for posters like RpR, this is an example of a tongue-in-cheek comment.  It is not a definitive statement about Sabato's abilities or his potential value in a trade.  Just a little humor on a dreary, rainy Sunday in Maine.

[Old fox]

Subato may be a coupon in a trade.

[Linus]

My mother told me that if I don’t have anything nice to say then don’t say anything at all so everyone have a great day. 

[FlyingFinn]

Sabato (and Severino's) window to the Twins has closed. Santana is at 1B this year. With Lewis, Correa and Lee lined up for the other three spots, Miranda, Julien and Kirilloff are looking at 1B for 2025. Nice to see Sabato doing better. He will not be added to the 40 man over the winter. Keirsey, Raya, Olivar and Helman would all go on there before him IMO (and I don't think Keirsey and Helman will get added because of their age).

The article says all teams love raw power. I'm not sure that's correct. Most of the talk about our sluggers (Wallner, Severino, Sabato) revolves around the strikeout rate being too high. They all get stuck at AAA. 

[High heat]

Very nice to see Sabato putting it together.  He isn’t dead in the water yet!

 

Would like to see the Twins move Severino (much younger and much more sustained MILB success, much more value). Then can give Sabato the call to AAA and see if it all continues.  

[D.C Twins]

Nah....I don't and neither should you...

[chpettit19]

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'm far from being sold on Sabato. I wouldn't have been disappointed if he was taken in the rule 5 draft. For being a bat 1st/ no glove 1st round draftee, the bar for offense production has to be very high. Sabato hasn't come close to meeting that bar. His low contact & high SO rate history has been depressing even though he has improved them a little, I can see the pull-happy Sabato having problems in the MLB much like Buxton now but worse. Sabato has seen some success at his level in the MiLB but he really has to turn it up to ever make the MLB.

Sabato isn't really that pull happy of a player. He goes to the opposite field more than the average MLB hitter. MLB average is just about 25% Oppo. Sabato has been at 39, 31, 28, 29, 27 percents at his stops before this year. This year he's right on the MLB average of 25.3%. He doesn't use the middle of the field much, but he's not just a dead pull hitter. He goes the other way a significant amount.

That doesn't mean I'm sold on him at all, and I don't see any way the Twins put him on the 40-man after the season and wouldn't expect him to be selected in the Rule 5. But his struggles aren't because he's pull-happy. He just can't hit the ball frequently enough.

[Dman]

It's nice to see him having some success, but he still seems like pretty much the same hitter with certain problem areas in his swing.  While the K rate has come down a little it's not enough yet.  I don't see him as a Rule V add with all the warts in the underlying numbers and his limited value as a 1st base\DH bat.

The only Rule V players I have for next year are Festa and Raya as for sure adds and outside chance of Olivar and Kiersey. Although bats are hard to predict as they don't get taken that often.  Also Lee looks like an early add. Everyone else would need to show a lot more in the second half to get added IMO. 

Sabato would not be on my list as I like Severino better in the 1st base DH spot as he is a switch hitter, runs better and has better contact skills.  They can't have two of those types taking up 40 man space so if Sabato takes off they would need to trade one of them and my pick would be Sabato.

[jimbo92107]

I wondered why the Twins drafted Sabato and Cavaco. Still wondering. Both guys seemed like mid to late rounders to me. I also wonder why the Twins continue to draft pitchers that are coming off arm surgeries. Very seldom does that result in a solid starter, much less a front rotation guy. 

[ashbury]

His best case is that he's somehow a "slow learner" in baseball terms, and therefore still has room for growth even as a 25-year old.  Lacking knowledge of the man or having any kind of direct experience watching him, I'm pretty skeptical of someone that age who lacks defensive value and is putting up "pretty good" but far from stellar numbers at AA. 

[Brandon]

Sabato is this generation’s version of Dave McCarty. 

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

That doesn't mean I'm sold on him at all, and I don't see any way the Twins put him on the 40-man after the season and wouldn't expect him to be selected in the Rule 5. But his struggles aren't because he's pull-happy. He just can't hit the ball frequently enough.

We can disagree about the definition of pull-happy, I compared him to Buxton, who also goes the other way sometimes but IMO tries to pull the ball too often. Nor did mentioned that his sole problem is because he likes to pull the ball, although that contributes. Your statement of his problem matches pretty much what I wrote earlier in my text.

Quote

His low contact & high SO rate history has been depressing even though he has improved them a little, 

 

[chpettit19]

38 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

We can disagree about the definition of pull-happy, I compared him to Buxton, who also goes the other way sometimes but IMO tries to pull the ball too often. Nor did mentioned that his sole problem is because he likes to pull the ball, although that contributes. Your statement of his problem matches pretty much what I wrote earlier in my text.

 

Yes, I was agreeing that his contact rates are his problem. But when you're going the other way nearly 40% of the time in multiple seasons that's far more than "goes the other way sometimes." There are very few hitters in baseball who aren't primarily trying to pull the ball. If being 10+% higher than average going the other way isn't enough to not qualify as "pull happy" maybe the definition of "pull happy" being used isn't correct.

Your comp, Buxton, goes the other way less than 20% of the time. Sabato nearly doubles him most of the time. 

[DJL44]

Will Holland is showing more promise than Aaron Sabato.

[bean5302]

Sabato's plate approach has changed. He had an interview years ago where he talked about his plate approach basically consisting of waiting for mistake pitches to crush. It's a great theory, but as he moved up the line, the mistakes just weren't there anymore. He needed to adapt his approach to be more aggressive at the plate, and he has. Sabato's reduction in strike outs (18%) comes with an even larger reduction in walks (35%) vs. 2023. Instead of having a nice projectable walk rate and poor projection on the K rate, both numbers are now borderline-ish projectable.

Still, Sabato's batting average crept up from the abyss so his mediocre OBP didn't regress, but like the hitch in BB:K rates, his power hitter profile completely vanished to start the year, managing a pretty pitiful .099 ISO through May despite this being his 3rd season go-'round in AA.

Now as the calendar page has flipped to June, his power stroke has returned (.344 ISO), and his K rate has stayed about the same. It's a very small sample size for a player who has struggled at AA for years now. Hopefully, he's figured something out, but even in June, his production is borderline for projecting as a DH caliber bat at the MLB level.

Considering Sabato is graded as a terrible fielder, and his numbers certainly don't look like they've gotten better in that regard, he's probably a right handed batting DH candidate so his bat is the only thing which can save him. I'd expect Sabato to be left off the roster yet again this year unless he does something truly remarkable. He was rule 5 eligible last year as well as I recall. These types of players who have a burst of production out of nowhere are usually viewed as long shots and ignored by other teams like Anthony Prato was last year.

[AceWrigley]

8 hours ago, Alex Wilde said:

I believe in him more than Cavaco…

So do the Twins, Cavaco got released.

[SaberNerd]

2 hours ago, AceWrigley said:

So do the Twins, Cavaco got released.

That's the joke

[Danchat]

6 hours ago, jimbo92107 said:

I wondered why the Twins drafted Sabato and Cavaco. Still wondering. Both guys seemed like mid to late rounders to me. I also wonder why the Twins continue to draft pitchers that are coming off arm surgeries. Very seldom does that result in a solid starter, much less a front rotation guy. 

Trying to remember back from the draft day threads, I recall the logic on the Cavaco pick being that he had a ton of upside and had some of the tools to possibly develop into something... whereas Sabato was a likely-to-be DH-only with one tool, that being power. Even on draft day that pick didn't make sense, and while Cavaco was clearly a reach it seemed more defendable to a degree.

[gil4]

9 hours ago, Brandon said:

Sabato is this generation’s version of Dave McCarty. 

That might be the ceiling at this point.  

[twinstalker]

If you strike out 31% of the time at AA, you have virtually no chance of doing anything at MLB.  There are exceptions, and I thought Matt Wallner might be one, but I'm willing to be my house Sabato is not one.  Reducing your K rate in your third AA season is more expected than not expected.  The Aaron Sabatos of yore all eventually made it to AAA or AAAA status, and to do so, they needed to figure out AA first at a "too old" age.  You can find thirty former Twins system guys just like Sabato.

I didn't mind the pick at the time, despite my recognition of the extremely small number of rh hitter drafted as 1B making it.  Lesson learned.

[bighat]

At this point it would be a huge achievement for Aaron Sabato to even get one at-bat in the Major Leagues, let alone play a meaningful role on a Big League roster. 

He's not worth protecting, and if he goes on to hit a home run or two for the Pirates or Marlins at age 28 or 29 while having a cup of coffee on an MLB roster, I am sure the Twins will survive. 

He's not even "organizational depth" at this point. He's a first round bust and always will be. That said, he's better than all of us combined, and I'm sure he's a great person. Let's hope he gets to put on an MLB uniform one day and take some cuts. 

[Trov]

I think Sabato could do similar to Rooker.  Both bat only college guys.  Rooker made debut in 2020, but that was 7 games due to injury and short season.  Then we thought he had it, and in 2021 we learned he still was a work in progress.  He was 26 that season.  At age 27 season he bounced around a few teams AAA and MLB and did nothing MLB level.  Finally, the real life Major League actively trying to lose Oakland A's brought him at age 28.  He had an out of the this world April, and then rest of ugh season.  Now 29 Rooker is doing decent.  He will never get a long term second deal, he may not even get through his arb years, but he is playing MLB ball.

I could see Sabato making similar run in his late 20's getting a few okay seasons from either us or another team that needs to fill holes in roster with cheap guys. Will he be an all-star ever, doubtful, but could he have a hot few months yeah.  Luke Raley is another guy, that at age 28 finally got a long run and put up some good numbers for a month or two.  We have a need at 1b possibly in the future so if we could get something like that out of him I would take it.  

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, Trov said:

I think Sabato could do similar to Rooker.  Both bat only college guys.  Rooker made debut in 2020, but that was 7 games due to injury and short season.  Then we thought he had it, and in 2021 we learned he still was a work in progress.  He was 26 that season.  At age 27 season he bounced around a few teams AAA and MLB and did nothing MLB level.  Finally, the real life Major League actively trying to lose Oakland A's brought him at age 28.  He had an out of the this world April, and then rest of ugh season.  Now 29 Rooker is doing decent.  He will never get a long term second deal, he may not even get through his arb years, but he is playing MLB ball.

I could see Sabato making similar run in his late 20's getting a few okay seasons from either us or another team that needs to fill holes in roster with cheap guys. Will he be an all-star ever, doubtful, but could he have a hot few months yeah.  Luke Raley is another guy, that at age 28 finally got a long run and put up some good numbers for a month or two.  We have a need at 1b possibly in the future so if we could get something like that out of him I would take it.  

As a hitter? Yes. But he's not a fielder at all apparently. That makes it even harder. 

Never take a bat only guy in round one....

[Fred]

On 6/23/2024 at 9:50 AM, Linus said:

My mother told me that if I don’t have anything nice to say then don’t say anything at all so everyone have a great day. 

Did you ever hear the Moms Mabley clip, where she talks about some male acquaintance dying. She says her Momma told her to talk good about the dead. "Good. He dead"