I Still Believe in Aaron Sabato (And You Should, Too!)

I believe in him more than Cavaco…

Complicated on Sabato. While the overall numbers at the AFL were ok, there were some of the same concerns with him inside them: low contact rates, really high Ks, low BA. He certainly doing better this season in AA, but I would hope that a 25-year old in AA repeating a level would show improvement or he'd be looking at the end of his career. It's good to see the improve contact rates and lower Ks, but he's also had to lose a little of patience and isn't piling up the walks quite as well. 

He's going to be a hard call for the 40-man next season; Twins are facing a bit of a crunch there. Sabato doesn't add anything on the defensive end (mediocre 1B); he absolutely has to hit to have value. Texas league is also a hitters environment...is he hitting enough? It'd be nice to get some value out of Sabato, who was bordering on bust territory. He's had a good stretch, but I'm not sold yet.

Your article states

Adding to the optimism, in Triple-A this season, Sabato has trimmed his strikeout rate to 26.9%

he is till in double A, not triple A. I would be more sold if he were putting up these stats in triple A. 

47 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Complicated on Sabato. While the overall numbers at the AFL were ok, there were some of the same concerns with him inside them: low contact rates, really high Ks, low BA. He certainly doing better this season in AA, but I would hope that a 25-year old in AA repeating a level would show improvement or he'd be looking at the end of his career. It's good to see the improve contact rates and lower Ks, but he's also had to lose a little of patience and isn't piling up the walks quite as well. 

He's going to be a hard call for the 40-man next season; Twins are facing a bit of a crunch there. Sabato doesn't add anything on the defensive end (mediocre 1B); he absolutely has to hit to have value. Texas league is also a hitters environment...is he hitting enough? It'd be nice to get some value out of Sabato, who was bordering on bust territory. He's had a good stretch, but I'm not sold yet.

I'm far from being sold on Sabato. I wouldn't have been disappointed if he was taken in the rule 5 draft. For being a bat 1st/ no glove 1st round draftee, the bar for offense production has to be very high. Sabato hasn't come close to meeting that bar. His low contact & high SO rate history has been depressing even though he has improved them a little, I can see the pull-happy Sabato having problems in the MLB much like Buxton now but worse. Sabato has seen some success at his level in the MiLB but he really has to turn it up to ever make the MLB.

My mother told me that if I don’t have anything nice to say then don’t say anything at all so everyone have a great day. 

Sabato (and Severino's) window to the Twins has closed. Santana is at 1B this year. With Lewis, Correa and Lee lined up for the other three spots, Miranda, Julien and Kirilloff are looking at 1B for 2025. Nice to see Sabato doing better. He will not be added to the 40 man over the winter. Keirsey, Raya, Olivar and Helman would all go on there before him IMO (and I don't think Keirsey and Helman will get added because of their age).

The article says all teams love raw power. I'm not sure that's correct. Most of the talk about our sluggers (Wallner, Severino, Sabato) revolves around the strikeout rate being too high. They all get stuck at AAA. 

Very nice to see Sabato putting it together.  He isn’t dead in the water yet!

Would like to see the Twins move Severino (much younger and much more sustained MILB success, much more value). Then can give Sabato the call to AAA and see if it all continues.  

Nah....I don't and neither should you...

I wondered why the Twins drafted Sabato and Cavaco. Still wondering. Both guys seemed like mid to late rounders to me. I also wonder why the Twins continue to draft pitchers that are coming off arm surgeries. Very seldom does that result in a solid starter, much less a front rotation guy. 

Sabato is this generation’s version of Dave McCarty. 

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

That doesn't mean I'm sold on him at all, and I don't see any way the Twins put him on the 40-man after the season and wouldn't expect him to be selected in the Rule 5. But his struggles aren't because he's pull-happy. He just can't hit the ball frequently enough.

We can disagree about the definition of pull-happy, I compared him to Buxton, who also goes the other way sometimes but IMO tries to pull the ball too often. Nor did mentioned that his sole problem is because he likes to pull the ball, although that contributes. Your statement of his problem matches pretty much what I wrote earlier in my text.

Quote

His low contact & high SO rate history has been depressing even though he has improved them a little, 

Will Holland is showing more promise than Aaron Sabato.

8 hours ago, Alex Wilde said:

I believe in him more than Cavaco…

So do the Twins, Cavaco got released.

2 hours ago, AceWrigley said:

So do the Twins, Cavaco got released.

That's the joke

If you strike out 31% of the time at AA, you have virtually no chance of doing anything at MLB.  There are exceptions, and I thought Matt Wallner might be one, but I'm willing to be my house Sabato is not one.  Reducing your K rate in your third AA season is more expected than not expected.  The Aaron Sabatos of yore all eventually made it to AAA or AAAA status, and to do so, they needed to figure out AA first at a "too old" age.  You can find thirty former Twins system guys just like Sabato.

I didn't mind the pick at the time, despite my recognition of the extremely small number of rh hitter drafted as 1B making it.  Lesson learned.

At this point it would be a huge achievement for Aaron Sabato to even get one at-bat in the Major Leagues, let alone play a meaningful role on a Big League roster. 

He's not worth protecting, and if he goes on to hit a home run or two for the Pirates or Marlins at age 28 or 29 while having a cup of coffee on an MLB roster, I am sure the Twins will survive. 

He's not even "organizational depth" at this point. He's a first round bust and always will be. That said, he's better than all of us combined, and I'm sure he's a great person. Let's hope he gets to put on an MLB uniform one day and take some cuts. 

I think Sabato could do similar to Rooker.  Both bat only college guys.  Rooker made debut in 2020, but that was 7 games due to injury and short season.  Then we thought he had it, and in 2021 we learned he still was a work in progress.  He was 26 that season.  At age 27 season he bounced around a few teams AAA and MLB and did nothing MLB level.  Finally, the real life Major League actively trying to lose Oakland A's brought him at age 28.  He had an out of the this world April, and then rest of ugh season.  Now 29 Rooker is doing decent.  He will never get a long term second deal, he may not even get through his arb years, but he is playing MLB ball.

I could see Sabato making similar run in his late 20's getting a few okay seasons from either us or another team that needs to fill holes in roster with cheap guys. Will he be an all-star ever, doubtful, but could he have a hot few months yeah.  Luke Raley is another guy, that at age 28 finally got a long run and put up some good numbers for a month or two.  We have a need at 1b possibly in the future so if we could get something like that out of him I would take it.  

On 6/23/2024 at 9:50 AM, Linus said:

My mother told me that if I don’t have anything nice to say then don’t say anything at all so everyone have a great day. 

Did you ever hear the Moms Mabley clip, where she talks about some male acquaintance dying. She says her Momma told her to talk good about the dead. "Good. He dead"