Is This Unimpressive Byron Buxton the Permanent Version at the Plate?

[Cody Pirkl]

Byron Buxton has earned the reputation of a two-way superstar capable of taking over games both offensively and defensively. As we look over the last two seasons of Buxton’s career, is it time to revise that assessment?

Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

Byron Buxton remains one of the most dynamic players in a Twins uniform when he’s on the field, but it’s been some time since we’ve seen the offensive highlight-reel player he’s shown he can be (or, ahem, could be). Age, injuries, and his offensive approach are all worth considering when we evaluate the offensive player he currently is. Should we be looking at Buxton differently?

Buxton has not been a consistent offensive contributor since the beginning of 2023.

He’s still capable of a big hit now and then, but we haven’t seen a sustained period of Buxton being one of the Twins' best hitters in a very long time. At 30 years old, a few factors should leave many wondering whether we will see another elite offensive season from the Twins center fielder.

Unfortunately, Buxton is as well-known for his time spent off the field as he is for the highlight-reel plays he’s involved in when healthy and playing. His list of past injuries includes his groin, foot, hamstring, hip, and, more recently, chronic knee issues. It’s difficult to imagine such a lengthy list of previous injuries not having a long-term effect on him. As Buxton’s power, quality of contact, and contact rate decline, you have to wonder if his body's wear and tear is the culprit.

Buxton is also a different hitter than we saw at his peak. It was always unfair to expect Buxton to repeat his 2021 season, in which he posted a 1.005 OPS in 61 games, but he completely transformed as a hitter over the last few years, and not in a way that one would expect much long-term success from.

After the 2021 season, Buxton appeared to make some changes to his approach, either because of injury or in search of some more sustainable way to achieve the same gaudy numbers he put up that year. His flyball rate skyrocketed from 38.4% to 51.1%, which would increase again in 2023. His pull rate increased from 53.8% to 58.2%. His plate approach became based on hunting for home runs, and ironically, his isolated slugging has dropped off precipitously every season since. Some of his flyball and pull rate tendencies aren’t quite as extreme this year, but he’s still in this mold of hitter.

Buxton has compiled nearly 500 plate appearances over the last two seasons and posted a .713 OPS. His on-base percentage is below .300, which isn’t surprising, considering he has an 8.5% walk rate and 31.4% strikeout rate during that time. Not even the slugging percentage, which is the entire goal of his plate approach, has been impressive during the last two seasons. His slugging is below .400 in 2024, as he continues a trend of three consecutive seasons of this number declining.

If he were still hitting the ball as hard at the best of times, or lifting it with authority at anywhere near the same frequency, we could confidently project that Buxton's power would rebound. It's just not there. Buxton's average exit velocity on batted balls was 92.9 MPH in 2022. It fell to 91.5 MPH in 2023, and so far this year, it's just 89.5. His 90th-percentile exit velocities have trended down, from 109.2 MPH in 2021 to 106.4 this season. Managing editor Matthew Trueblood created weighted sweet-spot exit velocity (wSSEV) to balance a hitter's ability to hit line drives and fly balls with their exit velocity on those batted balls, and Buxton's has utterly cratered since 2021, stepping down from 92.3 that year to the upper 80s the last two years, to 85.6 in 2024. He's gone from near-elite to below-average, in overall production and in underlying indices like this one.

This year, though his exit velocity on balls that result in outs have held pretty steady, those measurements taken on balls that ended up as hits show a marked decline from previous years.

This isn’t to say Buxton is no longer valuable; his defense alone makes him one of the Twins' better players. It is approaching time to accept that the days of Buxton carrying the lineup could be behind him. His free-swinging approach was never one that would age well, and it looks a lot like injuries have sped up his slide down the aging curve. 

Selling out for pulled fly balls will still work occasionally, but that’s typically only a long-term success when accompanied by elite plate discipline. As Buxton relies on taking pitches out of the park, opposing pitchers have no reason to throw him anything he’s looking for, and there’s a real chance that his ability to punish these pitches has declined due to age and injury. 

Whether injuries or an active choice forced it, Byron Buxton’s change at the plate has made him a boom-or-bust hitter. As we’ve seen him reach 30 years of age, the boom hasn’t been there enough, as we now have a lengthy sample size of him being a below-league-average hitter. Is this the new norm for Byron Buxton?

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[bean5302]

153 plate appearances isn't that lengthy for a veteran player like Buxton. I mean, that's all it's generally taken for fans to declare him an MVP favorite when Buxton goes on a hot streak, but I've never bought into it.

I think Buxton will finish up the year at a wRC+ of around 120, which is what I think fans should have been expecting from him since 2019. His first 10 games back from the IL was .258/.324/.516 OPS .840 wRC+ 138. He's just a streaky hitter. Lots of K's, crappy OBP, lots of power.

[stringer bell]

3 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

153 plate appearances isn't that lengthy for a veteran player like Buxton. I mean, that's all it's generally taken for fans to declare him an MVP favorite when Buxton goes on a hot streak, but I've never bought into it.

I think Buxton will finish up the year at a wRC+ of around 120, which is what I think fans should have been expecting from him since 2019. His first 10 games back from the IL was .258/.324/.516 OPS .840 wRC+ 138. He's just a streaky hitter. Lots of K's, crappy OBP, lots of power.

Yes, he is slump prone. It seems the hot streaks are shorter and the slumps are longer the last two years. I do think last year's struggles were exacerbated by injuries, but if he's healthy enough to play a good center field, I don't think injuries are the real cause. 

[ewen21]

If you look at his lifetime numbers what is different this year from his past seasonal average?  This year is almost the median of what he is at this time of year.  We are seeing pretty much the most accurate representation we could have expected.  230something, 3 homers and 15 runs batted in on June 5th?  Sounds like the OVER/Under

[Schmoeman5]

Yes. This is the new norm for Buxton. 

[tony&rodney]

I said several times in the offseason that Buxton needs to rework his swing. He is too much all or nothing and I would never fear pitching to a guy with that severe cut. Buck has a long term contract and the Twins need to insist that Byron move towards a different approach or a .700 OPS is his ceiling.

Does anyone believe that Buck is a threat in the batter's box at this time?

[Fezig]

Hopefully Buxton is absorbing the Yankees approach to hitting. Watching Aaron Judge take smart swings based on the count is kind of like watching old school ball. 

[CRF]

Sadly...yes. 

[mikelink45]

10 Yrs				714	2644	2404	382	572	138	23	118	313	88	12	180	781	.238	.298	.462	.760	105

 This is not the line of a superstar.  He is a good player, but time to downgrade the hype that has followed him all his career.  I remember them working on his swing and approach to the plate in his earlier years and it just seemed to confuse him.  So he is what he is and that's all he is!  

“Man is not what he thinks he is, he is what he hides.”

― André Malraux

“When we are no longer able to change a situation, we are challenged to change ourselves.”
― Viktor E. Frankl, Man’s Search for Meaning

[Twinkie]

I recall that a couple of years ago he mentioned that he didn’t like doing batting practice so he quit doing it. I often wonder if he still is avoiding it. If so, maybe he should reconsider. 

[Eris]

Buxton has always had a long swing. Early efforts to rework his swing were not successful. When he pulls a pitch of the outside part of the plate, I wonder if this is what the Twins are coaching or is it just Buxton.   Absent a change in his hitting approach—and he is going in the wrong direction—this is what we can expect from Buxton going forward. 
 

58% pull rate. That is Brian Dozier territory and he flamed out quickly. 
 

He doesn’t need to look to the Yankees to find hitting success. Max Kepler is a much better hitter now that he has stopped trying to pull every pitch into the bleachers. 

[Karbo]

At this point I see him as a below avg. hitter. I don't see any thing changing until Buck changes. Time to work a little more in the cage on a toned down 2 strike approach. Let it rip until 2nd strike then stay on the pitch and hit where its pitched!

[insagt1]

He will always be one heartbeat away from another long stint on the IL. His fragility now coupled with his age has robbed him of some tools at the plate...ability to bunt or beat out infield hits or steal bases. That leaves him striking out a lot and relying on the long ball. Yes he has always been streaky but I don't think his arc is upward anymore. His 'd' is still great but that superstar we all dreamed about has disappeared.

[Otaknam]

Buxton now looks like a $15 million late inning defensive replacement, and that’s assuming he can stay healthy. It is now probable that he will spend at least two IL stints of two weeks or more each season, and then have flailing at bats for ten days while trying to regain his timing. Such a promising career destroyed by injuries. 

[TopGunn#22]

Yup.  This is the version of Buxton we will be saddled with for the rest of this contract.  The sooner the Twins can move forward with E-Rod, Jenkins or even Keirsey in CF the better off the Twins will be as a whole.  If there was some way to buy him out of this contract, cut the cord and just move on I would be overjoyed.  He is a very difficult player to watch now because the expectation for "WOW" is always there, but he consistently fails to deliver.   

[Whitey333]

Yes the "Buxton era" is a myth and is over.  It's unfortunate but it's true.  He's only been a part time player for nearly all of his career.  The limited flashes of greatness are diminished.   Ive never been a Buxton fan and I'm still not.  I truly feel sorry for him due to the injuries.  We never knew if his potential was true or over hyped.  The fact that he was able to finagle a 100 million dollar contract from the Twins is pure genius on his part.  Unfortunately all he is and has been doing is hurting the development of someone who could perhaps play regularly.  Yes he will still have a game where he may hit two Homer's and then all they will keep telling us how great he is.   Then the nex 2 for 20 with 10 strikeouts will come up.  Somehow it's time to move on from Byron Buxton.

[David Maro]

His so called 5 tool talent has been wasted on him believing he is a power hitter.And now everyone is moving on to the Lewis train.You listen to Cory P and that is all he talks about is Lewis hitting it out of the park.

[Cody Pirkl]

14 hours ago, bean5302 said:

153 plate appearances isn't that lengthy for a veteran player like Buxton. I mean, that's all it's generally taken for fans to declare him an MVP favorite when Buxton goes on a hot streak, but I've never bought into it.

I think Buxton will finish up the year at a wRC+ of around 120, which is what I think fans should have been expecting from him since 2019. His first 10 games back from the IL was .258/.324/.516 OPS .840 wRC+ 138. He's just a streaky hitter. Lots of K's, crappy OBP, lots of power.

He's at about 500 PAs between 2023 and 2024 and has actually been less productive this season when he's been mostly "healthy"

[Cody Pirkl]

53 minutes ago, Otaknam said:

Buxton now looks like a $15 million late inning defensive replacement, and that’s assuming he can stay healthy. It is now probable that he will spend at least two IL stints of two weeks or more each season, and then have flailing at bats for ten days while trying to regain his timing. Such a promising career destroyed by injuries. 

Who in the world will be playing CF in the early innings?

[Cody Pirkl]

41 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Yup.  This is the version of Buxton we will be saddled with for the rest of this contract.  The sooner the Twins can move forward with E-Rod, Jenkins or even Keirsey in CF the better off the Twins will be as a whole.  If there was some way to buy him out of this contract, cut the cord and just move on I would be overjoyed.  He is a very difficult player to watch now because the expectation for "WOW" is always there, but he consistently fails to deliver.   

He will likely be worth the $15m base value of his contract based on defense alone. I don't think we have to worry about him hitting many incentives. As he tries to do do nothing but hit homers at the plate, he's probably never going to appear in another ASG or get MVP votes again. That's the trade off that was made.

[DJL44]

I like the unimpressive version of Buxton more than the unavailable version of Buxton. He's still performing about league average at the plate with above average defense which means he's worth every penny of his modest $15M salary.

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, Eris said:

Buxton has always had a long swing. Early efforts to rework his swing were not successful. When he pulls a pitch of the outside part of the plate, I wonder if this is what the Twins are coaching or is it just Buxton.   Absent a change in his hitting approach—and he is going in the wrong direction—this is what we can expect from Buxton going forward. 
 

58% pull rate. That is Brian Dozier territory and he flamed out quickly. 
 

He doesn’t need to look to the Yankees to find hitting success. Max Kepler is a much better hitter now that he has stopped trying to pull every pitch into the bleachers. 

He’s Giancarlo Stanton with less power and better speed……his pull rate going up over 10% from one year to the next is not great! He should be hitting double after double to right center on the away pitches - easier said than done - can’t pull sliders away!!!

[dogsday]

Whether this is the Buxton we get for the rest of his career in Minnesota is probably up to Buxton and whoever he trusts to work with. He's certainly still young enough and athletic enough to improve his hitting performance within whatever limitations his health imposes. But without some effective changes, he will continue to be what he is, an occasionally amazing hitting talent but more often an average or slightly below average hitter. 

[farmerguychris]

Got him around the 9th round for my fantasy team - cut him last week.  Not sure what is challenging him, but hope he can bounce back.  When he's on fire, we all know what he can do.

[KBJ1]

In April & May of 2022, Buxton was hitting everything to all fields! Since then - nada, zip. Either he figures that out, or he's a platoon player and defensive replacement.

Ho hum for a would be star.

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, Eris said:

...58% pull rate. That is Brian Dozier territory and he flamed out quickly...

Fangraphs has Byron Buxton at #45 of 315 batters with 100+ PA with a 47.9% pull rate with some hacks like Jose Altuve, Rhys Hoskins, Trea Turner, and Christian Yelich well above Buxton. The biggest problem Buxton's had this year is the fastball, and catching up to the fastball in specific. There's an article about it from a few weeks ago around here somewhere... where is it.... here, I found it.

Buxton pulling the ball is a good thing right now. It means he's ahead of the pitch, where he needs to adjust his timing to catch up on the fastball, and I expect he'll get there.

[ewen21]

2 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Yes the "Buxton era" is a myth and is over.  It's unfortunate but it's true.  He's only been a part time player for nearly all of his career.  The limited flashes of greatness are diminished.   Ive never been a Buxton fan and I'm still not.  I truly feel sorry for him due to the injuries.  We never knew if his potential was true or over hyped.  The fact that he was able to finagle a 100 million dollar contract from the Twins is pure genius on his part.  Unfortunately all he is and has been doing is hurting the development of someone who could perhaps play regularly.  Yes he will still have a game where he may hit two Homer's and then all they will keep telling us how great he is.   Then the nex 2 for 20 with 10 strikeouts will come up.  Somehow it's time to move on from Byron Buxton.

I liked this post for its honesty, not for how his career unfolded.  He’s vastly overrated.  Simple as that.

[LambchoP]

Sure, he plays great defense when he's healthy. But defense alone is not worth 15 million per year. He is waaay too pull happy, I haven't seen him hit anything the other way all year. I think he's basically a .230 hitter with 10-15 HR. Lots of strikeouts, no walks and no stolen bases. Should be hitting towards the bottom of the lineup now probably.

[ewen21]

2 hours ago, Cody Pirkl said:

Who in the world will be playing CF in the early innings?

I don’t think that statement was meant to be taken literally.  It’s more a statement where he is as an offensive player.  He is oneon the low end of average offensively.  He strikes out a ton and gets on base less than 30 percent of the time.

 

The article was totally warranted, but he has always been this player.  He has his hot streaks and these deep chasms where he couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat.  He’s not “one of the best” and he really never was

[bighat]

Buxton wouldn't start on 3/4 of the MLB outfields today. It's a far cry from a few years ago where he was an elite option. His star shined bright, faded quickly, and is now fizzling out. 

I know injuries have been his main Achilles heel but he also has a record of streaks of horrific plate appearances even when perfectly healthy. Even without the injuries I think his career would be sidetracked - though perhaps not this severely.

His trade value is as low as it's ever been, no team wants him, if the Twins somehow managed to offload him we'd be paying a heavy price for someone to take on Bux and his contract. 

Great guy, elite fielder in his prime, and will always be one of the names that comes up frequently when old timers talk Twins baseball over while trolling for walleye in 20 years. 

He'll always be The Greatest that Never Was.