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Posted

Through the first third of the season, the Minnesota Twins offense hasn't exactly been the imposing powerhouse we hoped it would be. But they bats have still been pretty decent overall, despite facing some major tribulations, and high-caliber help is on the way. 

The outlook for this offensive unit remains bright, even if the lineup has been navigating some murky times in April and May.

Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

The biggest concern for the offense heading into this 2024 campaign, as I outlined during the offseason, was the threat of regression coming for three players who were all key contributors to the offense as rookies: Royce Lewis, Matt Wallner and Edouard Julien. Each of the three posted an OPS+ north of 130 in 2023, during which they were worth a combined 6.8 Wins Above Replacement according to FanGraphs.

Well, that sophomore regression bug bit right on cue. Lewis missed almost the entire first two months with an injury. Wallner batted .080 in 13 games before being demoted to the minors, where he's struggled to find himself. Julien has been the most productive of the bunch, but entered play on Monday with a sub-.200 batting average, his OPS+ down 40 points from last year. Julien's unraveling plate approach is forcing the Twins to consider a similar course of action as they took with Wallner.

In spite of these developments, through 52 games, the Twins have been almost exactly a league-average offense. Among 30 MLB teams, they rank 16th in runs scored, 15th in wOBA, and 14th in fWAR from position players. 

In addition to the massive drop-off in production from the aforementioned sophomore trio, the Twins have also endured injured list stints from Carlos Correa, Max Kepler and Byron Buxton, as well as jarringly lackluster performance from the likes of Kyle Farmer, Manuel Margot and Christian Vázquez. The latter, in particular, has been an extraordinary drain: Vázquez ranks last in the majors in OPS (by 40 points) among players with 100+ plate appearances, and has individually accounted for more than 5% of the team's total at-bats.

In light of all these hindrances, it really is pretty amazing that the Twins have managed to remain in the middle of the pack as an offensive unit. It speaks to a few different things – how good guys like Correa, Kepler, Ryan Jeffers, Willi Castro and José Miranda have been, but also how much the bar has been lowered for league-wide production as a whole. 

The average big-league hitter currently has a sub-.700 OPS, which provides valuable benchmarking context. We're in an environment where, say, Buxton's .250/.296/.414 slash line is better than average, even though it's not the level anyone hopes to see from him. Generally speaking, pitchers are running the show right now in Major League Baseball, and that's important to keep in mind when evaluating how teams are performing offensively.

All of this is to say that the Twins have really nowhere to go but up. We've likely seen their floor over the first third of the season, and it still was not abnormally bad compared to the league as a whole. The distribution of their run-scoring, with a dominant 20-game run surrounded by drought-filled stretches, has certainly been unusual, but that kind of thing tends to even out in the long term. Meanwhile, reinforcements are on the way.

Lewis is rehabbing in Triple-A and could rejoin the lineup as soon as next weekend, restoring the team's best hitter to the No. 3 spot in the batting order. Brooks Lee also started a rehab stint last week, piling up a bunch of hits in rookie ball, and is set to take the next step to Single-A this week en route to St. Paul. In spring training he was making a strong case for stealing a roster spot; Lee's switch-hitting bat looks ready to roll.

On top of all that, the Twins also have an outfield prospect named Emmanuel Rodriguez with a 1.079 OPS as a 21-year-old at Double-A. It's only a matter of time before the ultra-patient slugger gets promoted to Triple-A, and from there it's not out of the question he could join the fold with a second-half rookie jolt akin to what Minnesota got from Julien and Wallner last season.

It's easy to get caught up in some of the underwhelming performances we've seen and the generally uneven nature of the Twins offense. League-average production is nothing to get excited about. But it feels like what we've seen so far is the downside of this lineup, whereas going forward, it's easy to see plenty of upside.


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Posted

Absolutely zero reason Royce Lewis shouldn't be in the lineup today against KC. He's playing in St. Paul at full speed, crushing the ball and stealing bases. 

Did the Bulls make Michael Jordan play in some backwater semi-pro league in Beloit for 2 weeks before they allowed him to rejoin the team? What kind of ridiculousness is this? 

Posted

Nick, I applaud your "half-full-glass" take on the offense, but I can't buy it just yet.  For this wish to materialize, the big 3 of Correa, Lewis and Buxton will have to produce like all-stars most of the last 4 months for this team to have a decent chance to overtake the Guards' 6-1/2 game lead(not to even mention KC's 4 game lead).  The average offensive rankings you cited are perhaps not surprising given the absence of these 3, but there are some huge issues with reading too much into these stats.

First, the Twins offensive spurt was most noticeable in the 12 game streak, when they won 10 in a row from the dregs of the division - WSox/Angels.  Note their record against the top 3 teams in the AL(NY, Balt, Cleve) is 0-11!!  Their offense was led by Jeffers, Kepler and at times Castro, Kirillof.  Suffice it to say that 2 of those 4 have relapsed(Castro, Kirillof) and the other two have cooled off.  Yes, Miranda has provided a lift, yet still, the offense in the last 12 games has been less than robust.   There are still too many black holes in this lineup to compete with the top 3 teams.

I'm certainly hopeful that Lewis can provide the added spark as he did last year.  Still, that is not a foregone conclusion.  I have less faith in Buxton.  So far he is just a shell of his former glory days.  And Correa, while consistent, is far from playing at an all-start level.  This all adds up to much more offensive uncertainty than one would hope for in a solid playoff contender.  Big question:  have we seen a "floor" or is this just reality?

Posted
22 minutes ago, Karbo said:

They need Larnach's foot to get better. He is crushing the ball but doesn't have a lot to show for it yet.

 

46 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

LF continues to be a black hole.

 

It's a black hole when Margot is playing.  Somewhere between Larnoch, Kirrilov, Kiersey JR, and Erod it shouldn't exist much longer. 

Posted

After an excellent 2023 season, Lane Thomas of the Nats would solve the right hand hitting left field bat the Twins need (although he was injured earlier this year and plays right field now). He would cost some good prospect capital. Danny Janson would make a great addition to pair with Jeffers if the Twins could find someone to take Vasquez and eat half of his salary.

 

Posted

I've always seen the potential of this lineup especially with Lewis leading it. That's why I was against going out & acquiring new players, we had the players to light things up inhouse. The new acquisitions took up our young player's playing time & roster spot.

In the beginning of the offseason, I had faith in Miranda, Kiriloff & Julien to take care of 1B/ DH the positions where they'd really thrive at, 1B with Santana we are 28th, with our trio we can be much higher. Due to pitcher's adjustment on Julien's swing style & the Julien's added focus of being overstretched at 2B contributed to Julien's high regression. A reset at AAA is in order for Julien so he can adjust his swing & have him focused on 1B where his long term future is at.

Margot is our black hole that trade should not have happened. Our young OFs need that playing time & Keirsey needs his roster spot. We have to see what Keirsey can do at the MLB level & Emma needs to get promoted to AAA to get him one step closer to the show.

Lewis can carry this team even with the old hitting philosophy but now with a better hitting philosophy, we are a better team. So in a way, his injury has been a blessing in disguise, in that we could see the great hole in that old hitting philosophy sooner & change it. Resetting for Wallner & Julien might take a while but at least they're on the right track.

Lewis will be great when he returns, Correa, Miranda, Castro, Jeffers & Kepler have been steadily good, Buxton has been streaky but can be very explosive, Larnach, Kiriloff & Martin have shown signs of being very good but appears something is holding them back at times. Vazquez & Farmer have been terrible but we still need their defense off the bench.

Posted

Castro at 2B?? Addition by subtraction should work with Julien at this point. .146 in May & no HR’s since April 25th.

Kirilloff - Buxton - Kepler ….Lewis - CC - Castro/Farmer - Santana - Jeffers/Vazquez - Larnach - Miranda - Margot (Lee & Kiersey by June 20-30th?)

Once Lewis is back, days away, I just don’t see Miranda in the line-up v. RH pitching …….that’s 75% of the time. He seems to be the likely demotion as I think they’ll give Margot another month.

Posted

I like Correa but he is not really hitting all that well.   He only has 4 HR's but has 30 strikeouts.  He is middle of the pack in most stat 5th or 6th.  He needs to heat up very soon.  The only stat I don't know is how many runs he has saved.

Posted
2 hours ago, bighat said:

Absolutely zero reason Royce Lewis shouldn't be in the lineup today against KC. He's playing in St. Paul at full speed, crushing the ball and stealing bases. 

Did the Bulls make Michael Jordan play in some backwater semi-pro league in Beloit for 2 weeks before they allowed him to rejoin the team? What kind of ridiculousness is this? 

Thanks for the medical clearance. He's good to go. And Michael wasn't coming off the IL. He just needed to play himself back into game shape.

Posted

Santana, Farmer, Vazquez and Margot are struggling against right handed pitching. I believe they can get better against right handers but I don't believe they will be better enough because there isn't any recent history that they can hit right handed hitting better enough.  

When we are completely healthy we can hide those 4. When we are not healthy... we can't.

IMO...  We have gone from decent depth to health vulnerable as a result. 

Unfortunately... I'm pretty sure that Miranda will be sent down if we are healthy when Lewis returns just to keep the above 4 on the roster to face those left handers who throw 25% of the time. Money was spent on them, they will not be just tossed aside. 

This will marginalize the uptick that the return of Lewis provides because of instead of Lewis replacing one of our worst hitters (Margot). He will replace one of our better hitters (Miranda). 

Replacing Margot is how it should work. Always cull from the bottom. This is where the extreme platooning and the need to roster below average hitters against right handed pitchers punches you in the face. 

The only solution to keeping Miranda up, culling the worst hitter on the team (Margot) and keeping this platoon system intact requires

1. Pulling Jeffers out of DH'ing and making him the two start guy to a 2 to 1 catching rotation with Vazquez regardless of what hand is throwing. 

2. Returning Kepler to full Time vs both left handers and right handers

3. Making Castro a short side platoon with Larnach in LF

4. Miranda stays full time playing 1B against RH's and DH'ing against left handers. 

That would create: 

DH Kirilloff/Miranda

C - Jeffers and Vazquez 2 to 1

1B- Miranda/Santana

2B - Julien/Farmer

3B - Lewis

SS - Correa

LF - Larnach/Castro

CF - Buxton

RF - Kepler

Player Roles Recap:

Every Day Players - Lewis, Correa, Buxton, Kepler and Miranda

Platoon Players vs RH - Kirilloff, Julien and Larnach

Platoon Players vs LH - Santana, Farmer and Castro

Catchers - Jeffers and Vazquez

I hope that Miranda stays and Margot goes. Lewis really improves the offense this way by replacing a bad hitter with a real good hitter. Lewis replacing Miranda is just trading a good hitter for a better hitter. 

The team would be better with Lewis and Miranda than it is with Lewis and Margot.  

 

 

Posted
24 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Thanks for the medical clearance. He's good to go. And Michael wasn't coming off the IL. He just needed to play himself back into game shape.

He's stealing bases and legging out doubles. What more does he need to do, exactly? 

I'm guessing if he ran out there doing backflips like Ozzie Smith you'd say "I think he needs to work on that backflip rotation a few more weeks in St. Paul before we take the bubble wrap off this guy". 

The Twins are not leading the division by 10 games, it's the other way around. 

 

Posted
1 minute ago, bighat said:

He's stealing bases and legging out doubles. What more does he need to do, exactly? 

I'm guessing if he ran out there doing backflips like Ozzie Smith you'd say "I think he needs to work on that backflip rotation a few more weeks in St. Paul before we take the bubble wrap off this guy". 

The Twins are not leading the division by 10 games, it's the other way around. 

 

I saw him jog out a double. He stole a base. He's been there for a couple games. And if he were somehow injured you'd be blasting them for hurrying Lewis return. Relax Dr. 

Community Moderator
Posted
11 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Santana, Farmer, Vazquez and Margot are struggling against right handed pitching. I believe they can get better against right handers but I don't believe they will be better enough because there isn't any recent history that they can hit right handed hitting better enough.  

When we are completely healthy we can hide those 4. When we are not healthy... we can't.

IMO...  We have gone from decent depth to health vulnerable as a result. 

Unfortunately... I'm pretty sure that Miranda will be sent down if we are healthy when Lewis returns just to keep the above 4 on the roster to face those left handers who throw 25% of the time. Money was spent on them, they will not be just tossed aside. 

This will marginalize the uptick that the return of Lewis provides because of instead of Lewis replacing one of our worst hitters (Margot). He will replace one of our better hitters (Miranda). 

Replacing Margot is how it should work. Always cull from the bottom. This is where the extreme platooning and the need to roster below average hitters against right handed pitchers punches you in the face. 

The only solution to keeping Miranda up, culling the worst hitter on the team (Margot) and keeping this platoon system intact requires

1. Pulling Jeffers out of DH'ing and making him the two start guy to a 2 to 1 catching rotation with Vazquez regardless of what hand is throwing. 

2. Returning Kepler to full Time vs both left handers and right handers

3. Making Castro a short side platoon with Larnach in LF

4. Miranda stays full time playing 1B against RH's and DH'ing against left handers. 

That would create: 

DH Kirilloff/Miranda

C - Jeffers and Vazquez 2 to 1

1B- Miranda/Santana

2B - Julien/Farmer

3B - Lewis

SS - Correa

LF - Larnach/Castro

CF - Buxton

RF - Kepler

Player Roles Recap:

Every Day Players - Lewis, Correa, Buxton, Kepler and Miranda

Platoon Players vs RH - Kirilloff, Julien and Larnach

Platoon Players vs LH - Santana, Farmer and Castro

Catchers - Jeffers and Vazquez

I hope that Miranda stays and Margot goes. Lewis really improves the offense this way by replacing a bad hitter with a real good hitter. Lewis replacing Miranda is just trading a good hitter for a better hitter. 

The team would be better with Lewis and Miranda than it is with Lewis and Margot.  

 

 

I've seen the "what will they do with Miranda when Lewis returns?" articles/threads/whatever on here, and all over the internet recently. I've always been confused by any answer other than "figure out where they both play to keep them both in the lineup everyday." But the more and more I see people talk about it and think about it I've come to accept that there's a real chance they send him down. They should be fired immediately if they do, but they wouldn't be. Outside of their big money guys and Jeffers he's the last guy they should be considering moving. He's arguably the best hitter on the team right now. 

I know it's a long season, and you need to account for that, but sending down your best hitter in order to maintain "depth" is a joke of a move. They absolutely can't be giving it serious consideration. But I know they are. Their "positional flexibility" plan has completely failed if they have to move their current best hitter to AAA to add their young superstar back to the roster.

Posted
4 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I've seen the "what will they do with Miranda when Lewis returns?" articles/threads/whatever on here, and all over the internet recently. I've always been confused by any answer other than "figure out where they both play to keep them both in the lineup everyday." But the more and more I see people talk about it and think about it I've come to accept that there's a real chance they send him down. They should be fired immediately if they do, but they wouldn't be. Outside of their big money guys and Jeffers he's the last guy they should be considering moving. He's arguably the best hitter on the team right now. 

I know it's a long season, and you need to account for that, but sending down your best hitter in order to maintain "depth" is a joke of a move. They absolutely can't be giving it serious consideration. But I know they are. Their "positional flexibility" plan has completely failed if they have to move their current best hitter to AAA to add their young superstar back to the roster.

I don't know about fired immediately but yeah... they shouldn't send Miranda down.

Figure it out... let's try to keep the best bats batting. See if we can create some cushion for our pitching staff. 

 

Posted

Don't forget about Carlos Santana! I have it on good authority he's a total stud. There was a forum thread gloating about Santana's value and taunting the idiots who didn't think Santana was going to rake this year! Thread was from a couple weeks ago. Oddly silent recently... LOL

Posted

Nowhere to go but up?  How about nowhere to go period.

Outside of Lewis there is nothing that is going to improve this entire offensive lineup.  No payroll increases means no moves.  There is no help left in the minors.  What you see is what you get.

Posted
1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

Santana, Farmer, Vazquez and Margot are struggling against right handed pitching. I believe they can get better against right handers but I don't believe they will be better enough because there isn't any recent history that they can hit right handed hitting better enough.  

When we are completely healthy we can hide those 4. When we are not healthy... we can't.

IMO...  We have gone from decent depth to health vulnerable as a result. 

Unfortunately... I'm pretty sure that Miranda will be sent down if we are healthy when Lewis returns just to keep the above 4 on the roster to face those left handers who throw 25% of the time. Money was spent on them, they will not be just tossed aside. 

This will marginalize the uptick that the return of Lewis provides because of instead of Lewis replacing one of our worst hitters (Margot). He will replace one of our better hitters (Miranda). 

Replacing Margot is how it should work. Always cull from the bottom. This is where the extreme platooning and the need to roster below average hitters against right handed pitchers punches you in the face. 

The only solution to keeping Miranda up, culling the worst hitter on the team (Margot) and keeping this platoon system intact requires

1. Pulling Jeffers out of DH'ing and making him the two start guy to a 2 to 1 catching rotation with Vazquez regardless of what hand is throwing. 

2. Returning Kepler to full Time vs both left handers and right handers

3. Making Castro a short side platoon with Larnach in LF

4. Miranda stays full time playing 1B against RH's and DH'ing against left handers. 

That would create: 

DH Kirilloff/Miranda

C - Jeffers and Vazquez 2 to 1

1B- Miranda/Santana

2B - Julien/Farmer

3B - Lewis

SS - Correa

LF - Larnach/Castro

CF - Buxton

RF - Kepler

Player Roles Recap:

Every Day Players - Lewis, Correa, Buxton, Kepler and Miranda

Platoon Players vs RH - Kirilloff, Julien and Larnach

Platoon Players vs LH - Santana, Farmer and Castro

Catchers - Jeffers and Vazquez

I hope that Miranda stays and Margot goes. Lewis really improves the offense this way by replacing a bad hitter with a real good hitter. Lewis replacing Miranda is just trading a good hitter for a better hitter. 

The team would be better with Lewis and Miranda than it is with Lewis and Margot.  

 

 

Preach! Unfortunately, gotta keep the terrible veterans. 

Are people still defending Vazquez? How they aren't moving to more catching for Jeffers hurts my brain. How Margot is in this roster hurts my brain, they don't even trust him to field center. They are so obsessed with depth......

Posted
5 hours ago, MABB1959 said:

I like Correa but he is not really hitting all that well.   He only has 4 HR's but has 30 strikeouts.  He is middle of the pack in most stat 5th or 6th.  He needs to heat up very soon.  The only stat I don't know is how many runs he has saved.

Who do you think he is Judge or Trout? His career average is .272, he is hitting .270, He has never hit more than 26 homers and he is just under that pace, His career OPS is .819 and it currently is .809. His career OPS+ is 125 and it is 132. Career OBP is .352 and currently .356

Verified Member
Posted
2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Are people still defending Vazquez? How they aren't moving to more catching for Jeffers hurts my brain. How Margot is in this roster hurts my brain, they don't even trust him to field center. They are so obsessed with depth......

Jeffers is not a good catcher, probably not run at will any more , but still not good.

Posted
35 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Who do you think he is Judge or Trout? His career average is .272, he is hitting .270, He has never hit more than 26 homers and he is just under that pace, His career OPS is .819 and it currently is .809. His career OPS+ is 125 and it is 132. Career OBP is .352 and currently .356

He is the highest paid player on the team, expect him to be incredible

Posted
6 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Castro at 2B?? Addition by subtraction should work with Julien at this point. .146 in May & no HR’s since April 25th.

Kirilloff - Buxton - Kepler ….Lewis - CC - Castro/Farmer - Santana - Jeffers/Vazquez - Larnach - Miranda - Margot (Lee & Kiersey by June 20-30th?)

Once Lewis is back, days away, I just don’t see Miranda in the line-up v. RH pitching …….that’s 75% of the time. He seems to be the likely demotion as I think they’ll give Margot another month.

 

Posted

Demote one of the guys that is stinging the ball on a consistent basis and many times in clutch situation? Huh? Miranda stays!!!

Posted
14 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

LF continues to be a black hole.

 

Despite the seeming revolving door in LF, as of a few days ago, the Twins were 17th overall in MLB in LF. 1B and DH have been near the bottom of the league. Thats where we really need to find improvement. 

Posted

I'm an optimist for the offense the rest of this season and going forward. Big surprise huh? LOL

Getting Lewis back and for the rest of the season is of tremendous importance. That's a given. But ANY thought of sending down Miranda would be idiotic. He's young and doing well again. He can backup 3B, play some at 1B, and DH. You KEEP your best bats! And 1B and DH are the worst performing spots in the lineup. Period. Miranda can help with that.

Due to Jeffers, catcher is not a bottom performing spot, despite Vazquez pretty much stinking. Being a veteran, I guess there's SOME HOPE Vazquez will improve slightly. But his defense and game calling absolutely has real value regardless. A 60-40 split between Jeffers and Vazquez should be the norm going forward, with Vaz starting against LHP as much as possible to help mitigate his overall lack of production. Considering he's not a bad bunter, I wouldn't hesitate to use him in that capacity from time to time with runners on base, similar to a pitcher batting 9th.

I'm super excited about Emmanuel Rodriguez, what he's doing, and what he might become. And I think he's close to heading to AAA. But placing hopes on a 21yo to jump to MLB and be a savior is misguided at best. And while I have great hope/expectations for Lee, he's a few weeks away from helping with all of the time he's missed. I'd like to think he's 2nd half help if an injury happens, IF Julien doesn't rebound, or IF Farmer is somehow gone, which I doubt.

IMO, one of the biggest keys for offense is Larnach, Kirilloff, and possibly Wallner. Larnach has made major adjustments and has been productive. Despite his lack of production recently, the contact has been decent, and he's really stung the ball with little result. He can DH and if his toe heals up more, he might play a little more corner OF. Kirilloff started hot, slumped terribly, but has been on fire the past 7 to 10 days. Can he continue his upswing? He's also, potentially, part of the DH/1B conundrum as well as a little time as a corner OF. The Wallner we've seen in 2024 is just NOT the player we've seen the past 3-4 years as he climbed the milb ladder, or what he's shown at the ML level. Can he get RIGHT for the 2nd half? All 3 of these guys are potentially important for this year, and beyond, BEFORE we even fantasize about E Rodriguez and what he might become. TWO of those THREE figuring it out really changes the complexion of the roster now, and going forward. But even ONE, helps make a difference. Larnach and AK STILL have less than 800 ML AB even though it feels like they've been around forever. 

Roster construction with Lewis being back may crowd out any immediate idea of Keirsey coming up. For now at least. But I just can't ignore a kid on the upswing for the past couple of years who is making AAA look easy. Defense, power, and speed are impossible to dismiss. Can he HIT at the ML level? We'll never know until he gets his shot one of these days. 

The basic principles of having offensive balance of RH/LH batters is solid. But it only takes you so far, especially when you consider A] You still face RHP 75% of the time, and B] Just how good/productive ARE those "extra" RH depth batters?

No vitriol, but Margot has done little defensively for the club, despite past reputation and ability. He's always been pretty decent...not great...against LHP. But even in that regard, he's still about 50 points behind league average OPS. Add in poor, average at best, defense and he's taking up a roster spot with very little production. June 1st is around the corner and it's time to let loose the least productive player you have rostered. 

Note: I've removed Vazquez from the previous comments not only due to his contract, but because he's in a different discussion as a strong catcher.

With all due respect to Farmer as a person, a teammate, his contributions in 2023, and a still solid glove, and a fairly decent uptick with the bat the past couple of weeks, he should be considered as a possible removal come July if Lee is ready and there are no significant injuries. I'm not saying he should be on the chopping block now, but there's a real chance Castro and a fully rehabbed Lee could not only be better options, but part of the future as well.

Lewis back, Margot goes. Kepler, Buxton, Larnach, Krilloff, and Castro are your OF.

Buxton goes down at some point, time for Keirsey to get his shot. But you also have Martin in reserve, and maybe even the versatile, hot, and late blooming Helman as an option. 

Vazquez you treat as already stated.

This is a club that is "oh so close" to being pretty damn dangerous with Lewis back, keeping Miranda, and SOMEONE of Larnach, Kirilloff, and Wallner FIGURING IT OUT, even before we talk about Rodriguez and Lee. 

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