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The biggest concern for the offense heading into this 2024 campaign, as I outlined during the offseason, was the threat of regression coming for three players who were all key contributors to the offense as rookies: Royce Lewis, Matt Wallner and Edouard Julien. Each of the three posted an OPS+ north of 130 in 2023, during which they were worth a combined 6.8 Wins Above Replacement according to FanGraphs.
Well, that sophomore regression bug bit right on cue. Lewis missed almost the entire first two months with an injury. Wallner batted .080 in 13 games before being demoted to the minors, where he's struggled to find himself. Julien has been the most productive of the bunch, but entered play on Monday with a sub-.200 batting average, his OPS+ down 40 points from last year. Julien's unraveling plate approach is forcing the Twins to consider a similar course of action as they took with Wallner.
In spite of these developments, through 52 games, the Twins have been almost exactly a league-average offense. Among 30 MLB teams, they rank 16th in runs scored, 15th in wOBA, and 14th in fWAR from position players.
In addition to the massive drop-off in production from the aforementioned sophomore trio, the Twins have also endured injured list stints from Carlos Correa, Max Kepler and Byron Buxton, as well as jarringly lackluster performance from the likes of Kyle Farmer, Manuel Margot and Christian Vázquez. The latter, in particular, has been an extraordinary drain: Vázquez ranks last in the majors in OPS (by 40 points) among players with 100+ plate appearances, and has individually accounted for more than 5% of the team's total at-bats.
In light of all these hindrances, it really is pretty amazing that the Twins have managed to remain in the middle of the pack as an offensive unit. It speaks to a few different things – how good guys like Correa, Kepler, Ryan Jeffers, Willi Castro and José Miranda have been, but also how much the bar has been lowered for league-wide production as a whole.
The average big-league hitter currently has a sub-.700 OPS, which provides valuable benchmarking context. We're in an environment where, say, Buxton's .250/.296/.414 slash line is better than average, even though it's not the level anyone hopes to see from him. Generally speaking, pitchers are running the show right now in Major League Baseball, and that's important to keep in mind when evaluating how teams are performing offensively.
All of this is to say that the Twins have really nowhere to go but up. We've likely seen their floor over the first third of the season, and it still was not abnormally bad compared to the league as a whole. The distribution of their run-scoring, with a dominant 20-game run surrounded by drought-filled stretches, has certainly been unusual, but that kind of thing tends to even out in the long term. Meanwhile, reinforcements are on the way.
Lewis is rehabbing in Triple-A and could rejoin the lineup as soon as next weekend, restoring the team's best hitter to the No. 3 spot in the batting order. Brooks Lee also started a rehab stint last week, piling up a bunch of hits in rookie ball, and is set to take the next step to Single-A this week en route to St. Paul. In spring training he was making a strong case for stealing a roster spot; Lee's switch-hitting bat looks ready to roll.
On top of all that, the Twins also have an outfield prospect named Emmanuel Rodriguez with a 1.079 OPS as a 21-year-old at Double-A. It's only a matter of time before the ultra-patient slugger gets promoted to Triple-A, and from there it's not out of the question he could join the fold with a second-half rookie jolt akin to what Minnesota got from Julien and Wallner last season.
It's easy to get caught up in some of the underwhelming performances we've seen and the generally uneven nature of the Twins offense. League-average production is nothing to get excited about. But it feels like what we've seen so far is the downside of this lineup, whereas going forward, it's easy to see plenty of upside.







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