Should We Be Worried About Alex Kirilloff?

[Cody Pirkl]

Alex Kirilloff was one of the few bright spots in the lineup in the early weeks of the season, as the Twins struggled. However, as the team has looked more competitive, Kirilloff has completely disappeared. Is this worth worrying about?

Image courtesy of Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

We’ve seen plenty of ups and downs in Alex Kirilloff's career. Typically, they've been brief highs, followed by long periods of lows that are eventually attributed to injury. As we watch another prolonged slump, it’s fair to wonder whether he’s dealing with more physical issues, or if this is a simpler, skill-driven dry spell.

Kirilloff was slashing .370/.419/.667 through Apr. 8. The hope was that he was finally healthy and that his prospect pedigree was finally paying off. The Twins revived their season shortly after that, with Kirilloff at the top of the lineup and sometimes leading off. As the team has come back to life, however, Kirilloff has fallen flat. Since his third consecutive game with a triple, he’s slashing .167/.228/.306 in 79 plate appearances.

We’ve seen from Kirilloff that, mainly when his wrist is the culprit for his struggles, regardless of the pitch type or location, he rolls over grounders repeatedly. Since May 8, Kirilloff has had a 44% ground ball rate and has been pulling the ball 40% of the time. These percentages are very similar to previous periods right before he was put on the IL, such as in 2022, but it’s worth noting that he was hitting more ground balls during his hot streak this season, too.

Looking at the way his batted-ball profile has changed over the last month, weak pop-ups have been as much of a problem as rollers to second base. He's continued to hit the ball in that range just north of 30 degrees pretty consistently; it just hasn't been quite hard enough to generate damage.

As we know, success in MLB is a product of adjustments. Thus, it's always fleeting, but can also be quickly recaptured. It’s possible Kirilloff’s hot streak caused opposing pitchers to make one, and now it’s Kirilloff’s job to adjust back.

This is obviously a more favorable outcome than yet another injury on the path of Kirilloff’s disrupted career. The hope is that, although it’s not good that Kirilloff has struggled for the better part of a month, an injury should have surfaced by now if that were the culprit.

Regardless of the reason, hopefully, Kirilloff can right the ship soon. Several players who shined during the 12-game winning streak, such as Carlos Santana and Edouard Julien, have cooled back off. May is arguably the most difficult month of the Twins season. A healthy and productive Alex Kirilloff from the left side of the plate would go a long way in a Twins lineup that’s still missing Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis.

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Is it worth being concerned about Kirilloff, either regarding an injury or just traditional struggles? Can he still be relied upon as a middle-of-the-order hitter in this lineup? Let us know below!

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[Ricky Vaughn]

He's going through a slump. He will be fine.

[LambchoP]

I think the book is out on AK. He'll have to learn to make adjustments quick, or his batting average will be in danger of falling below .200 like Julien's...

[2wins87]

I tend to wonder not whether Kirilloff is injured now, but how much of his struggles in previous years can be attributed strictly to injuries, and not at least partially to the difficult adjustment process in the majors.

Having physical pain or discomfort would obviously affect his performance, but not always knowing the timelines for when the pain started and when the struggles started, I've always wondered if we've been using the injuries to explain away too much of his cold stretches.

At this point, I kind of just think that he is a solid hitter, maybe 110-120 wRC+ overall between the hot and cold stretches.  That's a solid starter for a 1B/corner OF, but not a middle of the order masher.  At this point, there really just isn't any evidence that he can maintain a 130+ wRC+ in the majors for any extended period of time unless he learns to make adjustments more quickly.

[nova_twins]

I'm kinda worried. Either he's still not healthy or he's struggling badly despite being healthy, neither of which are good. He doesn't add any value defensively so he can't just be a decent hitter, he really needs to rake. 

Kirilloff still has an option year so he might not be far off from demotion conversations, depending on the position player health situation. 

[Azviking101]

Maybe he’s just a bust? He’s had a few hot streaks but the metrics have rarely backed it up. Now he has multiple surgeries under his belt. I know he was a big time prospect but he’s officially running out of time here to show he can hit major league pitching. If he can’t produce an OPS+ of 120 then he has no value as a starting player since his defense is brutal 

[MMMordabito]

[bean5302]

I think Kirilloff will be just fine. Over a full year, I'd expect him to be in that .750-780 OPS range. About 10-15% better than league average vs. RHP like his career has shown. Kirilloff doesn't walk a ton and he hits a lot of line drives instead of fly balls. That'll mean his OBP will be good, not great, and his SLG will be good, not great.

[Doctor Gast]

I've been concerned. Kiriloff's hitting approach has been pretty sound so IMO his adjustments should be slight & quick. This slump is taking longer than I'd like. So I'd look at other reasons. I don't think it'd be anything serious.

[GKuehl]

Kirilloff might just have holes in his swing. Anything down and away or below the zone gets a pretty easy swing and a miss from Kirilloff over the top. When he's hitting well, he's able to stay back and drive the ball to the opposite field, but recently it seems like he's off balance and out on his front foot, which has hurt his ability to hit breaking balls and drive fastballs to the left-center gap (his specialty). 

[roger]

Have been asking myself that question, Cody.  Then I remind myself that considering how much time he missed the last X years, he really is playing in what hopefully will be his first full year.   So in many ways, it is like his rookie season and he will need to deal with disappointment.  LIke most rookies.

With that said, cannot tell you how happy I am with what we are seeing from Larnach and Miranda. Yes, its still a small sample in 2024, but sure looks like that duo is set to settle into nice roles for the Twins.  Hopefully, by 2025 we will see the same for AK and Julien.  Now if we can only get Royce back on the field because he is a special talent who can be a difference for the Twins.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Cody Pirkl said:

Should We Be Worried About Alex Kirilloff?

 

Yes.

I'll try to find time to read the article later, and learn the details of why.

[Azviking101]

57 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I think Kirilloff will be just fine. Over a full year, I'd expect him to be in that .750-780 OPS range. About 10-15% better than league average vs. RHP like his career has shown. Kirilloff doesn't walk a ton and he hits a lot of line drives instead of fly balls. That'll mean his OBP will be good, not great, and his SLG will be good, not great.

Is a .750 ops enough for him to be a mlb starter?

Brandon Belt continues to sit without a team and he’s better than that. Kiriloff’s defense and a .750 ops is not an mlb regular. 

[Whitey333]

As mentioned in the article Kirilloff and others have been slumping as of late.   Could it be that 12 game winning streak covered up a lot of Twins hitting issues?  Now that we are facing major  league pitching again averages are going down.  Surprise?  No.  I'm not worried about Kurilloff, Miranda, or Larnach.  I'm more concerned about how the Twins mis managing their careers.  I think all 3 will be fine if the manager let's them play and not treat them as part time players.  You don't help a players confidence by pinch hitting for guys that hit homeruns in the same game.  Especially with a stiff like Margot.  IMO, this is a manager issue.  He seems to jerk them around a lot.

[Dman]

1 hour ago, 2wins87 said:

I tend to wonder not whether Kirilloff is injured now, but how much of his struggles in previous years can be attributed strictly to injuries, and not at least partially to the difficult adjustment process in the majors.

Having physical pain or discomfort would obviously affect his performance, but not always knowing the timelines for when the pain started and when the struggles started, I've always wondered if we've been using the injuries to explain away too much of his cold stretches.

At this point, I kind of just think that he is a solid hitter, maybe 110-120 wRC+ overall between the hot and cold stretches.  That's a solid starter for a 1B/corner OF, but not a middle of the order masher.  At this point, there really just isn't any evidence that he can maintain a 130+ wRC+ in the majors for any extended period of time unless he learns to make adjustments more quickly.

Nice analysis.  I tend to agree.

He seems to start off hot and then slump from there.  I can see why the Twins didn't trust him completely and brought in Santana.  

I hope he can still become a feared hitter but time is running out.  IMO he doesn't have the greatest eye at the plate and chases plenty of changeups and other stuff out of the zone.  I keep hoping he will get better with more experience but starting to think he is who he is.

[VivaBomboRivera!]

Can we not have any more of these kinds of articles, please?  Stats alone are not enough to tell what may (or may not) be going on. If something is really wrong, we will know soon. In the meantime, we all have better things to do than speculate.

[hitterscount]

Whether it's an injury or a slump, Kirloff just isn't consistent enough. It's been 4 weeks since he has done much of anything, whatever the reason it has been a trend since he has been in the big leagues.

[jccracraft]

I'm willing to give him a full, hopefully healthy, season in the majors before I'd worry. He's obviously never had that continuity due to the injuries. His minor league stats (.906 OPS) were outstanding. His overall MLB stats are a little weak given his defensive liabilities. But I think he still has upside.

[RpR]

29 minutes ago, VivaBomboRivera! said:

Can we not have any more of these kinds of articles, please?  Stats alone are not enough to tell what may (or may not) be going on. If something is really wrong, we will know soon. In the meantime, we all have better things to do than speculate.

NO STATS. -- She Knows;

OH WAIT -- She's dead -- Did not see that coming.

[mikelink45]

Yes, I am concerned. I'm also concerned about Julien and I am frustrated with Santana and Margot and Vasquez and Farmer. I know we had a nice 12-game winning streak, but that isn't enough as I pointed out on the athletic. Athletic we are 7 and 0 versus the White Sox. Take that away on our record. Doesn't look as great. We need all of our players performing at the level expected. 

[AlGoreRythm]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

Yes, I am concerned. I'm also concerned about Julien and I am frustrated with Santana and Margot and Vasquez and Farmer. I know we had a nice 12-game winning streak, but that isn't enough as I pointed out on the athletic. Athletic we are 7 and 0 versus the White Sox. Take that away on our record. Doesn't look as great. We need all of our players performing at the level expected. 

Remove 7 wins from any team other than the Dodgers and Phillies and it doesn't look so great. That's not reasonable analysis.

Every team plays crap teams every year. Those wins count just as much as any other, regardless of the level of competition and that applies to every team.

I'd argue the 5th straight series win vs Seattle was helped due to confidence gained vs the crap teams in the 12 game streak.

[Linus]

Excellent article Cody. Well researched with reasonable theories. I wonder if teams are adjusting to him for the first time. Previously he got hurt so frequently teams didn’t need really need to make a plan to pitch to him. I view him as in the same boat as Julien Wallner Larnach and Miranda. They all have to prove they are bona fide MLB hitters. Chances are 2 will make it and 2 will bust. We won’t know until they each get 1000 -1500 at bats. These guys are also similar in that none of them are great fielders so their bats need to be special. 

[Craig Arko]

Clearly Alex needs to spend some quality time with the sausage. 

[bean5302]

7 hours ago, Azviking101 said:

Is a .750 ops enough for him to be a mlb starter?

Brandon Belt continues to sit without a team and he’s better than that. Kiriloff’s defense and a .750 ops is not an mlb regular. 

Kirilloff's tough to gauge. If he's at the .750 end of the spectrum, he'd probably be like short timer Nomar Mazara, but if he can hit at a .780 level, he'd be more like low cost journeyman for bad teams, CJ Cron. A lot may depend on whether or not teams reconsider Kirilloff as a viable corner OF as his defense at 1B has been rough and his bat honestly doesn't play at DH, IMHO.

Brandon Belt is way better than Kirilloff so they're not comparable, but do keep in mind he's now a36, and I think the expectation around the league was Belt was going to be looking for a contract in the $10-12MM AAV range. 

A lot of fans want 2023 Kirilloff to return, I just don't buy his .374 BABIP against RHP last year. Kirilloff has a much better likelihood of being a consistent starter if he's playing outfield where a .750 OPS, and average defense can push his WAR to 1.5-2.0.

[bean5302]

7 hours ago, VivaBomboRivera! said:

Can we not have any more of these kinds of articles, please?  Stats alone are not enough to tell what may (or may not) be going on. If something is really wrong, we will know soon. In the meantime, we all have better things to do than speculate.

So you're saying no discussions, speculation, analysis? Personally, digging into this kind of stuff is interesting, and Kirilloff's overall track record is getting pretty long now. 818 PA .254/.313/.416 OPS .729 wRC+ 102.

[RpR]

45 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Kirilloff's tough to gauge. If he's at the .750 end of the spectrum, he'd probably be like short timer Nomar Mazara, but if he can hit at a .780 level, he'd be more like low cost journeyman for bad teams, CJ Cron.

What, you mean he is going to disappear like C.J.?

[VivaBomboRivera!]

38 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

So you're saying no discussions, speculation, analysis? Personally, digging into this kind of stuff is interesting, and Kirilloff's overall track record is getting pretty long now. 818 PA .254/.313/.416 OPS .729 wRC+ 102.

Thanks for the comment.  No doubt the stats and analysis can be interesting, and an article cast that way would draw attention from readers with an interest in the topic or the player. However, statistics alone are not enough to support an article titled, "Should we be worried about ...?"

If we're going to dive into what appears to be recent poor performance by a player, what may be behind it, and what it means for a player's future, an article needs to draw on more sources. These could include comments from the player, others close to the player, or those with a qualified opinion, on-field examples of how the player's performance has (not) changed, or comparisons of strengths and weaknesses with similar players. An article focused solely on statistics (especially this early!) with nothing else to support it is too thin to wear that headline.

Speculation?  No time for that. Get enough facts to at least develop probable theories if not a single conclusion. Otherwise, don't waste everyone's time.

[stringer bell]

Kirilloff hasn't looked like the same hitter for the last month. He had a nice start after a good spring training, but has faded considerably. I guess he is in the "adjustments to the adjustments" stage unless there is an underlying injury. 

In another thread, it has been stated that he is a candidate to be optioned when Lewis and Buxton are added back to the active roster. While I count myself as an Alex Kirilloff fan, that seems accurate. 

[karcherd]

I would like to see what would happen if he was allowed to play every game for the whole game.  I get being taken out of LF in the 8th or 9th inning for defense.  It feels like his playing time is inconsistent with this obsession with platooning.  I don't know if it would help or not but would love to see what would happen.

[LambchoP]

I'm thinking maybe a AAA trip would do him some good. Plus Keirsey Jr is raking right now and could be a great boost for our offense. Plus he can play center field.