Should We Be Worried About Alex Kirilloff?

[mikelink45]

17 hours ago, AlGoreRythm said:

Remove 7 wins from any team other than the Dodgers and Phillies and it doesn't look so great. That's not reasonable analysis.

Every team plays crap teams every year. Those wins count just as much as any other, regardless of the level of competition and that applies to every team.

I'd argue the 5th straight series win vs Seattle was helped due to confidence gained vs the crap teams in the 12 game streak.

I agree, I just want to maintain perspective - the Mariner wins are what impresses me. 

[bean5302]

15 hours ago, RpR said:

What, you mean he is going to disappear like C.J.?

Cron didn't disappear, he's been playing as a regular until this season. He's just consistently been a free agent veteran high floor kinda guy.

[RpR]

19 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Cron didn't disappear, he's been playing as a regular until this season. He's just consistently been a free agent veteran high floor kinda guy.

Where is he?

[bean5302]

31 minutes ago, RpR said:

Where is he?

www.baseballreference.com
www.spotrac.com

[RpR]

6 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

www.baseballreference.com
www.spotrac.com

MLB shows nothing, neither in the Bigs or the MInors; you used a poor analogy.

[DocBauer]

AK's entire ML career has been marred by his wrist issue...supposed fixed now...and then a bad shoulder late in 2023 when he dove and landed hard chasing a ball. Start and stop, start and stop. That's been his ML career so far.

When drafted, he was seen as possibly the best bat to ball hitter in his draft class. His milb results would seem to back that opinion. So has stretches, when healthy, at the ML level.

If there is no hidden, non reported injury at this time, I'd speculate he's in the "they adjusted and now I have to" phase. Does that mean a temporary demotion to AAA would be a bad thing? Not at all. But I dontnsee it happening until someone else comes back healthy. I don't think the Twins are ready to bring Wallner back just yet, and I don't see a 40 man spot for Keirsey just yet. So I think AK keeps working on it at the ML level.

It's hard to believe, but he's on got a little over 800 PA in his ML career thus far. That's really not a lot! Worried? No. A bit concerned? Yes. But I full, healthy, playing daily 2024 will help him develop and prove himself. Or it might not. But really, 20 games of a slump for a kid with talent and only 800 PA is knee jerk to actually be "worried about" him.

[Kummel]

We are conditioned to assume the worst, because there is reason to associate poor performance at the plate for Kirilloff with injury.    If for the first time it's a matter of  adjusting and not dealing with injury, I have hope.  He has a sweet swing when he's tuned in.

[USAFChief]

On 5/9/2024 at 7:56 AM, bean5302 said:

I think Kirilloff will be just fine. Over a full year, I'd expect him to be in that .750-780 OPS range. About 10-15% better than league average vs. RHP like his career has shown. Kirilloff doesn't walk a ton and he hits a lot of line drives instead of fly balls. That'll mean his OBP will be good, not great, and his SLG will be good, not great.

He hasn't been "10-15% better than league average" against RH pitching.

His career OPS+ vs RH pitching is 107. And he was below average against RH pitching his first 2 years in MLB.

He's not down much this year from his overall career numbers. Maybe this is close to what he is.

[saviking]

Do we worry when Kepler goes into long slumps. Do we worry when Correa started in slumps early in the first two seasons. Do we worry when Buxton goes into long slumps. 

Sure we do but unfortunately they are a part of the game ..

[Azviking101]

41 minutes ago, saviking said:

Do we worry when Kepler goes into long slumps. Do we worry when Correa started in slumps early in the first two seasons. Do we worry when Buxton goes into long slumps. 

Sure we do but unfortunately they are a part of the game ..

Kiriloff has never actually had mlb success longer than a handful of weeks. 
You can’t keep the AAA shuffle up forever. Good players shouldn’t need AAA stints every year to get right. Kiriloff is very near bust status right now 

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, USAFChief said:

He hasn't been "10-15% better than league average" against RH pitching.

His career OPS+ vs RH pitching is 107. And he was below average against RH pitching his first 2 years in MLB.

He's not down much this year from his overall career numbers. Maybe this is close to what he is.

It was wRC+ 112 a couple weeks ago :p

That said, yeah, I think Kirilloff is probably a little below league average if he's not platooned, and a little above league average if he is platooned. That's probably just who he is. Right now, he owns a career fWAR of 0.4 in 818 plate appearances and 225 games, but a lot of fans have been pulling his bandwagon out of the mud for years to keep riding it.

[JD-TWINS]

On 5/9/2024 at 10:52 AM, Azviking101 said:

Maybe he’s just a bust? He’s had a few hot streaks but the metrics have rarely backed it up. Now he has multiple surgeries under his belt. I know he was a big time prospect but he’s officially running out of time here to show he can hit major league pitching. If he can’t produce an OPS+ of 120 then he has no value as a starting player since his defense is brutal 

2023: .270 BA …… .348 OBP …….. 118 OPS+ and we know that at least a few weeks he played hurt.

He was a lone offensive bright spot for most of 3-4 weeks. I completely agree he stinks right now but considering him a bust seems out of bounds.

My assumption is that if he were not healthy somebody would have said something by now. A few other guys are rolling to help alleviate any pressure but he needs to get it going.

So does Mr Julien!!!

[JD-TWINS]

6 hours ago, Azviking101 said:

Kiriloff has never actually had mlb success longer than a handful of weeks. 
You can’t keep the AAA shuffle up forever. Good players shouldn’t need AAA stints every year to get right. Kiriloff is very near bust status right now 

 

6 hours ago, Azviking101 said:

Kiriloff has never actually had mlb success longer than a handful of weeks. 
You can’t keep the AAA shuffle up forever. Good players shouldn’t need AAA stints every year to get right. Kiriloff is very near bust status right now 

He had 281 AB’s in ‘23:

.270 BA - .348 OBP - 118 OPS+ ………that’s a successful major league hitter!

[saviking]

16 hours ago, Azviking101 said:

Kiriloff has never actually had mlb success longer than a handful of weeks. 
You can’t keep the AAA shuffle up forever. Good players shouldn’t need AAA stints every year to get right. Kiriloff is very near bust status right now 

Larnach 27 Castillo 27

Krilloff 26

MIranda 25 Julian 25

The top two were left for dead a year and a half ago. Miranda was last year, and Julian is struggling to start the year. The jump from minors to majors is hard and takes time to adjust. I[m nowhere near ready to giving up on Krilloff at this stage ..

[stringer bell]

7 minutes ago, saviking said:

Larnach 27 Castillo 27

Krilloff 26

MIranda 25 Julian 25

The top two were left for dead a year and a half ago. Miranda was last year, and Julian is struggling to start the year. The jump from minors to majors is hard and takes time to adjust. I[m nowhere near ready to giving up on Krilloff at this stage ..

You mean Castro not Castillo? Matt Wallner is also 26 (I believe he's a month younger than AK). The Twins don't need all of their young left handed corner OF/1Bs to succeed, but they need a couple to thrive. It's probably fair to include Miranda as a corner IF/DH. 

[saviking]

On 5/11/2024 at 9:16 AM, stringer bell said:

You mean Castro not Castillo? Matt Wallner is also 26 (I believe he's a month younger than AK). The Twins don't need all of their young left handed corner OF/1Bs to succeed, but they need a couple to thrive. It's probably fair to include Miranda as a corner IF/DH. 

Good catch. Castillo