Twins’ Playoff Hopes Are Slipping, But Their 2027 Draft Position Is Rising

The Minnesota Twins are running out of time to save their season. With the calendar flipping to September, the team's playoff hopes are slipping away. Every loss makes the postseason picture a little more difficult to see, and Minnesota's recent stretch of poor play has put the team in a position where it might be time to look at the standings through a different lens.

Instead of asking how the Twins can get back into the playoff race, it might be worth asking where they could land in the 2027 MLB Draft. After Sunday's win, Minnesota has the 10th-worst record in MLB. That's not quite enough to put the Twins in position for one of the highest picks, but their draft lottery odds are already more favorable than their spot in the standings might suggest.

Minnesota currently has the ninth-best odds of landing the No. 1 overall pick, at 2.1%. The Rockies, Angels, and Athletics are in a tier of their own. Each has a 19.25% chance of landing the top pick, and they're locked into the bottom three spots in the standings unless they make a surprising September run.

Behind them, things get much more interesting.

The Race for Lottery Picks in the 2027 MLB Draft

The Mets and Royals currently occupy the fourth and fifth spots in the reverse standings. Minnesota sits in a large group of teams "competing" for the next few positions. Detroit, Seattle, and Washington are separated by just 1.5 games in the reverse standings. That small gap makes every September game meaningful, and puts many fan bases in strange positions—hoping for wins to cling to the fringes of the Wild Card race, but taking solace in losses that bolster their draft lottery odds.

Detroit currently has a 52% chance of landing a top-six pick and a 6.42% chance of getting the No. 1 selection. Minnesota's numbers are much different, despite how close the clubs are in the standings. The Twins enter Monday with just a 20.3% chance of landing in the top six and a 2.1% chance of picking first.

The standings may make Detroit and Minnesota look like neighbors, but the draft odds show just how quickly things can change. A handful of games in September could dramatically alter the order. For Minnesota, moving from a projected top-10 selection into the top six won't be easy—and, of course, it's not really what they most want.

Twins' Remaining Schedule Leaves Door Open for Wild Card Push

One of the biggest problems for the Twins' draft positioning is no problem at all, in the grand scheme: it's an opportunity. Minnesota has the fifth-easiest remaining strength of schedule in baseball. There are certainly some difficult series remaining, including matchups against the Yankees, White Sox, and Cleveland. But the schedule also includes plenty of opportunities to win. The Twins still have games against the Angels, Giants, Tigers, and Rangers. If Minnesota continues playing competitive baseball, those matchups could push the team back up the standings and further away from the highest draft picks, but they wouldn't mind that at all; it would put them back into a relevant playoff position.

Among the teams currently ahead of Minnesota in the reverse standings, only Seattle has an easier schedule. The Mariners have the easiest remaining schedule in baseball, with their remaining opponents carrying a combined .424 winning percentage. Detroit ranks 24th in remaining strength of schedule, while Washington ranks 14th. The Twins still have an open lane to the playoffs, should they get hot. If they don't, though, the teams to whom they lose will move above them in the standings and become less likely to pick ahead of them next summer.

Not Every Bad MLB Team Is Eligible for a Lottery Pick

There's another wrinkle to the draft standings that makes Minnesota's position even more interesting. The Giants have a worse record than the Twins, but San Francisco cannot participate in the draft lottery this year. Pittsburgh is also ineligible.

MLB's draft lottery rules are designed to prevent teams from intentionally losing for multiple seasons in a row. Because San Francisco is a large-market team, it cannot participate in the lottery in consecutive years. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, cannot participate in the lottery in three consecutive seasons.

Those restrictions have already impacted the draft order. In the 2026 MLB Draft, the Rockies, Nationals, and Angels were not eligible for the lottery. That means Minnesota's position in the actual draft order could be better than its record suggests because some teams with worse records are not competing for lottery positioning.

There is an additional consideration for the Twins. If Minnesota wins a top-six pick in the 2027 MLB Draft, the club would fall into the same general category as Pittsburgh for the 2028 draft. That would limit the Twins' ability to return to the lottery again the following year. That's something the organization will have to weigh if its season continues to spiral.

There is a lot to like about the potential top of the 2027 MLB Draft, although it's far too early to start locking players into specific draft slots. The prep class includes several intriguing names, including shortstop Dylan Seward, left-hander Connor Salerno, shortstop/right-hander Chase Fuller, and shortstop Carter Hadnot.

The college ranks feature another interesting group that is more well established. Shortstop Brendan Lawson of Florida, left-hander Tomas Valincius of Mississippi State, outfielder Landon Hairston of Arizona State, right-hander Dax Whitney of Oregon State, and catcher/second baseman Gavin Kelly of West Virginia are among the names to watch.

Of course, the draft landscape will change significantly over the next year. That's one of the most important things to remember when discussing draft positioning this early.

At this point last season, few people would have expected Vahn Lackey to become the No. 3 overall pick in the 2026 MLB Draft. The Twins ultimately selected the Georgia Tech catcher with the third pick, giving the organization one of its highest draft selections in recent history.

A similar development could happen in 2027. Players will break out. Others will struggle. Prep prospects will rise. College players will establish themselves as potential top picks. Injuries and performance will reshape the board.

A Different Kind of September

The Twins aren't going to enter September hoping to lose games. Players and coaches are still trying to win, and the organization isn't going to openly embrace a tanking strategy. If Minnesota's playoff hopes disappear, however, the reverse standings become one of the more important things to watch during the final month of the season. The Twins are already trending toward a top-10 selection. The question is whether they can climb higher.

Getting into the top six would require Minnesota to fall several spots in the standings while teams around them win enough games to separate themselves. The remaining schedule makes that unlikely (and it would certainly be unwelcome), but the American League has been a jumble all season.

Minnesota already has a top-three pick in its recent history with Lackey. Another high selection could provide an important addition to a farm system that will continue changing as prospects graduate to the majors.

The Twins may not have the postseason race they envisioned entering September. But if the playoffs are no longer realistic, there is still something meaningful at stake. The final month could determine whether Minnesota enters the 2027 MLB Draft with another top-10 pick—or whether a few more losses turn that selection into something much more valuable.

What stands out about Minnesota’s odds in the MLB Draft Lottery? How high can the team climb (or fall) in September? Leave a comment and start the discussion.