2024 Minnesota Twins Spring Training Position Battles: Left Field

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins come into the 2024 Major League Baseball season with plenty of starting positions on the roster established. Some spots remain at least partially fluid as spring camps open. Left field is among them.

Image courtesy of © Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Rocco Baldelli comes into Spring Training with a relatively clear plan for his outfield. The hope would be that there is more consistency out there this season, and that starts in center field, with Byron Buxton. While Max Kepler has been in right field for the better part of the past nine years, the left fielder is new.

Probable Starter: Matt Wallner 
After playing in the 2022 American League Futures Game, the Forest Lake native made his big-league debut for an 18-game cameo to end the season. It took a bit for the Twins to promote him during 2023, but the 2019 first-round pick forced their hand as much as he could at Triple-A.

Wallner ultimately posted a .927 OPS across 67 games last season for the Saints. While there is plenty of swing-and-miss to his game, the exceptional .403 OBP provided a significant amount of confidence for the next level. In 76 games with the Twins, Wallner found that success, to the tune of an .877 OPS with an equally impressive .370 OBP.

Presumably taking over for 2023 starter Trevor Larnach, Wallner will be tasked with playing a high level of defense. He posted a -2 DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) and OAA (Outs Above Average) in a small 308-inning sample, but the arm has always been his calling card. With two outfield assists in just his first 57 starts, teams immediately could see the cannon that made him a solid starting pitcher in college.

If Wallner is going to remain at the big-league level and be a productive regular, working on the 31.5% strikeout rate is a must. Had he qualified, that would have been the fifth-highest total in the majors last year, and not far off from Brent Rooker’s leading 32.7%. It is a positive that Wallner drew walks 11% of the time, but there is room to improve upon a 28.7% chase rate and 15.4% swinging-strike rate (whiffs as a share of all pitches seen). Overall, the 65-game sample after mid-July was solid, but it included a few dreadful stretches. He can hold down the position, but the top depth behind him should make him earn it.

The Backups: Trevor Larnach, Willi Castro
The chief competition for Wallner will be the 2023 starter, Larnach. The 2018 first-round pick is a very similar player to Wallner, but he hasn't enjoyed the same kind of steady success we just saw from the younger slugger over any meaningful period. Larnach hasn’t had consistent opportunity, thanks in part to injuries, but he has also failed to show much of the promise expected from his skillset.

Across 188 big-league games, Larnach has only hit 20 homers. His .315 OBP isn’t enough to carry him, and a .385 SLG isn’t anywhere near what should be his ceiling. Larnach’s career 33.6% strikeout rate is a huge issue, and while he doesn’t chase quite as often as Wallner, he whiffs at about the same frequency. If he’s going to get what could be a final shot to make it work, figuring out a way to tap into the power potential is a must.

There’s almost no scenario in which Castro doesn’t make the Opening Day roster, but there shouldn’t be one in which he starts at any position, barring a failure to thrive for both Wallner and Larnach. After playing a pivotal role last season as a utility player, Castro will probably see some regression from the career-best 106 OPS+. He is just 27 years old, so there might be more to unlock, but his value is derived from being capable across the board, rather than being exceptional anywhere. If he does rise to yet another level, it'll be a pleasant surprise, but the emphasis will be on the second word of that phrase.

Waiting in the Wings: Emmanuel Rodriguez, Austin Martin, DaShawn Keirsey Jr., Kala'i Rosario
It’s pretty unlikely the Twins will bring Rodríguez up for his debut this season. Still, he is the only other corner outfielder on the 40-man roster (without putting Alex Kirilloff back in the grass). In 99 games at High-A last season, he posted a solid .863 OPS, but a .400 OBP heavily propped that up. The 134 strikeouts at that level don't advertise his big-league readiness, but his ability to take walks has always been exceptional.

Playing more than 100 games, staying healthy, and continuing the power surge as he hones in his approach at the plate is a must. Rodríguez may begin the season at Double-A, and despite being just 21 years old, a strong start would have him knocking on the major-league door by season’s end.

Additional options are relatively light, in that they aren’t ideal corner fits, and Minnesota doesn’t have much of a veteran presence to speak of at the Triple-A level. Martin is best utilized as a center fielder, where his speed can play up and there's less pressure on his bat to produce power. Keirsey is in a similar boat. He doesn’t have an immediate path to the parent club, not being on the 40-man roster, and the same rings true for Rosario, whom the Twins sent to the Arizona Fall League after last season and who thereupon paired with Aaron Sabato to lead the league in home runs. He’ll be at Double-A this year as a 21-year-old, and while the .832 OPS for Cedar Rapids was nice, it would be a modest surprise for him to even reach Triple-A in 2024.

With Wallner as the most likely starter and Larnach as his chief competition, can the 2023 rookie do enough to hold down the job? Will he take considerable strides forward in 2024 and reach new heights at the highest level? Those are the questions fans gathered down the left-field line at Hammond Park this spring can spend their time debating and discussing. Spring performance will inform playing-time decisions at this spot, even if it's unlikely to completely upend the Twins' plans.

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[LewFordLives]

It's certainly Wallner's to lose, although neither he nor Larnach have a big sample of MLB at-bats.  Wallner's performance thus far mimics what he did in the minors, which is encouraging. 

I really want to see what Martin can do.  His OBP has always been good, and he an steal some bases,

[Karbo]

I would like to see Martin too. He has speed which is like a black hole on this team, and is a capable CF'er. Otherwise, I wouldn't mind a reunion with MAT.

[CRF]

I think Wallner would have to either completely fall apart, or get hurt, to lose the LF job. Let's hope he avoids both scenarios and continues to progress and solidify what he's shown so far.

[Doctor Gast]

I think it surprising how raw talented Wallner, fast, strong arm & has power has only developed his power these years with the Twins. He's fast but doesn't get good jumps off the ball or run good routes, He has a good arm but is not disciplined if given a different approach his hitting could improve. Wallner has the tools to become a superstar.

Larnach was once a highly sought prospect with the Twins & led the team in RBIs at the beginning of last year. Is now lucky to be on the roster now because Gordon was traded. SOs are the problem of many Twins but Larnach has a big problem with off-speed especially curveballs. Once Martin is ready Larnach is gone.

Castro will have his share of playing time in CF against RHPs & LF against LHPs. Martin will be a much-needed RH-hitting spark plug in the OF. 

[Jeff K]

Unless Wallner has a disastrous Spring, I think we can write it in ink that he starts the season in LF...as the starter.

[Minny505]

I would not be surprised if Larnach ends up leading the team in DH starts in 2024. As it stands right now, he is the best fit in the lineup vs RHP, though likely as the 8/9 hitter.

[Trov]

It is Wallner's to lose, barring any other trades.  Against lefties he will not start too often, if at all, but I think they need to give him some run against lefties, at least in the spring, to see how he can do if he can be full time and not just platoon guy. 

[saviking]

Click on Austin Martin 's name, and it says he's a relief pitcher .. :) 

Hoping Larnach can stay healthy and produce this year. If nothing else, it would improve his trade value. Or cover for Wallner if he has a sophomore slump.

 

[bighat]

Remember 3 years ago on this board when Trevor Larnach was the next "Sure Thing"? Turns out the only sure thing is that he'll strike out if you throw him a curveball. Anyone remember Bobby Keilty? Frankly I think at this point Larnach will be lucky to have a career like his. I'm guessing he won't be with the Twins much longer, will get a cup of coffee or two with another club. He strikes out way too much for a AAAA player and doesn't have any other tricks in his bag to make up for the deficiencies. 

The Twins gift wrapped the job for Larnach the past couple years, now they're basically handing it to Wallner. Let's see if Wallner takes the opportunity and runs with it. 

[TopGunn#22]

Wallner should/will be the guy.  It's quite an advantage to have a guy with a cannon like his in LF.  You'd have to go back to Willie Stargell (with Clemente in RF) and Rocky Colovito (with Kaline in RF) to find a team with a guy in LF with a cannon like Wallner's.

It would be nice if he couple cut down on K's a bit.  But if the walks and power are still there and his defense improves a bit he's a solid starter.  He may be destined to shift to RF once Max Kepler moves on but he can be solid in LF for 2024.

I'm interested in seeing if Castro can replicate what he did last year.  Defensively, I think he graded the best in LF.  I'm also excited to see a good helping of Austin Martin.  I don't care if Martin doesn't hit for power.  I want a .280 BA with an OBP of .380 with stolen bases.  Honestly, if the Twins (post Kepler) can get that kind of production out of Martin and Castro out of LF that would be fine with me.

We may never get to that point with guys like Rodriguez, Jenkins, Winikour, Gonzolez and Rosario pushing, but it's not necessary to have power at EACH supposed power position (corner OF and corner IF) as long as the player there is giving you solid production.     

[jmlease1]

The reality is there aren't very many positional battles for the Twins this year, There might have been a little more of a fight in LF if Gordon has stuck on the roster (it was his best position defensively and if he's pulling the ball effectively he can hit enough to be a positive there) but with him gone it's Wallner's job unless he gets hurt in Spring Training. And it should be: he did more than enough last season to show he deserves to be the default guy there.

I was particularly impressed that even when Wallner had a rough stretch where he wasn't making contact and was racking up a bunch of Ks, he didn't fall into the trap of expanding the zone. He stayed disciplined, kept taking walks, and the contact came back around for him. He's going to frustrate people this season, but he's also going to have big games and big moments. He's better defensively than the eye test, and I pity the fool who tests his arm.

Wallner was really good last season. he might slip back a little as teams really develop pitching plans to attack him, but disciplined hitters survive and adapt, and I think he's one of those guys. And the ball explodes off his bat.

[stringer bell]

Matt Wallner is the incumbent in left field. He'll start there or in right field if something happens to Kepler and he'll DH some with Willi Castro in left field. A year ago, Trevor Larnach was clearly ahead of Wallner, but Matt clearly outperformed Trevor in major league at-bats and played a good left field. Larnach is around in case Larnach falters and will also get DH at-bats if he makes the club. 

If he makes the club, Austin Martin will get some time in left as well. It will be interesting to see the pecking order between left and center between Martin and Castro. If Castro is in left and Martin in center, that will indicate that Martin is a viable option to back up Buxton.

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, Karbo said:

I would like to see Martin too. He has speed which is like a black hole on this team, and is a capable CF'er. Otherwise, I wouldn't mind a reunion with MAT.

I see Martin gets a 55 grade for speed which is about 28 ft/s. That's about as fast as Wallner and Royce Lewis and slower than Buxton and Castro.

[nicksaviking]

I know there's a legacy player over there now, but shouldn't Wallner, with his plus arm but lack of range be in right field? Right field in Target Field has made similar players, like Michael Cuddyer and even the ancient Torii Hunter look passable.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Minny505 said:

I would not be surprised if Larnach ends up leading the team in DH starts in 2024. As it stands right now, he is the best fit in the lineup vs RHP, though likely as the 8/9 hitter.

I'm expecting Kirilloff to get those DH starts.

[Joe A. Preusser]

41 minutes ago, bighat said:

 Anyone remember Bobby Keilty? 

I remember Kielty fondly as a pretty decent player on some bad teams.  That said the two things that stick in my mind are the time he tripped rounding third during a game I attended, and that I thought his then girlfriend was gorgeous.  And of course some nice HRs.  

Is Kirrilof completely out of the LF picture?  Or would he still be considered an option on the level of Larnach?  I believe they want to give Santana starts at 1st if he is hitting well, but Santana also has the smaller platoon side.  Thoughts?

 

[Doctor Gast]

15 minutes ago, Joe A. Preusser said:

I remember Kielty fondly as a pretty decent player on some bad teams.  That said the two things that stick in my mind are the time he tripped rounding third during a game I attended, and that I thought his then girlfriend was gorgeous.  And of course some nice HRs.  

Is Kirrilof completely out of the LF picture?  Or would he still be considered an option on the level of Larnach?  I believe they want to give Santana starts at 1st if he is hitting well, but Santana also has the smaller platoon side.  Thoughts?

 

I think they want to take Kiriloff slow coming off a sore shoulder. This could mean primary DH to begin with then 1B when his shoulder is 100% I hope he'd be able to get over to the OF if needed & to get some more ABs in.

[Nashvilletwin]

With DeSclafani and Staumont showing up 100%, the only roster battle, other than because of an outlier performance (both good or bad) and/or injury, is for the last spot on the position player bench.  It appears that Larnach and Martin are the leading contenders, but one cannot rule out the veteran Goodrum. Hellman and Prato are longer shots. 

[Joe A. Preusser]

1 minute ago, Doctor Gast said:

I think they want to take Kiriloff slow coming off a sore shoulder. This could mean primary DH to begin with then 1B when his shoulder is 100% I hope he'd be able to get over to the OF if needed.

Yeah, that makes a lot of sense.  Then as he feels more and more healthy/comfortable we gain more and more lineup flexibility.   

[Road trip]

I'm optimistic that Wallner's defense in LF will improve as he becomes accustomed to playing on that side.  LF is different than RF.  The throws are different, the ball breaks off the bat a little differently, and it can be just a bit disorienting playing on the left side of the diamond after spending your entire life on the right side.  There's a reason Kepler wants to stay in RF where he is comfortable..  In a failure of player development, Wallner was never prepped to play LF in the minors (a grand total of 11 games prior to 2023) while racking up hundreds of games in RF.  He went from looking extremely clumsy in LF early last year to just-a-little clumsy by the end of the season.  If increased reps and experience can get Wallner to "average" on his jumps and reads, we could have a pretty good left fielder thanks to his cannon of an arm.

[TwinsDr2021]

17 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I think they want to take Kiriloff slow coming off a sore shoulder. This could mean primary DH to begin with then 1B when his shoulder is 100% I hope he'd be able to get over to the OF if needed & to get some more ABs in.

So the plan is to put 36/37 Santana at 1B fulltime or Miranda? He is coming off a years of OPS+ of 103, 100, 81, 93. I can't see that happening because if AK starts slow and Santana starts like Gallo last year, AK just becomes a bench or demoted player. If he isn't healthy enough to play the field he should go on the DL and when healthy can be inserted into the lineup.

As for Wallner it seems pretty obvious it is his job to lose, and to be honest I don't really think it matters how he performs in spring training, because I can't see the Twins putting him in AAA and giving the job to Larnach. To me Larnach career is going to look like Stevenson's a great AAA player and plan B/C/D for injury replacement.

 

[nicksaviking]

42 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I'm expecting Kirilloff to get those DH starts.

I'm more than happy to give Kirilloff more chances, but he doesn't have much in the way of power, and his OBP even last year was just good, not great. If he's only going to contribute with his bat, his bat needs to get a whole lot better in one of those areas, OBP likely being the more reasonable path.

[Cris E]

Miranda and Larnach are around to get healthy and prove they can hit. Period.  Nothing else matters until that's settled, so you can just leave them out of the plans until March, when that question is answered and we're closer to actually establishing the lineup card.

LF is Wallner followed by poor second choices. If there's a major injury to Walner or Kepler I'd expect Martin to get the long term sub job so he can be up to spell Buxton as well.

[Doctor Gast]

5 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

So the plan is to put 36/37 Santana at 1B fulltime or Miranda? He is coming off a years of OPS+ of 103, 100, 81, 93. I can't see that happening because if AK starts slow and Santana starts like Gallo last year, AK just becomes a bench or demoted player. If he isn't healthy enough to play the field he should go on the DL and when healthy can be inserted into the lineup.

As for Wallner it seems pretty obvious it is his job to lose, and to be honest I don't really think it matters how he performs in spring training, because I can't see the Twins putting him in AAA and giving the job to Larnach. To me Larnach career is going to look like Stevenson's a great AAA player and plan B/C/D for injury replacement.

IMO Santana is a waste of money, I'd go with Miranda instead but since they got him, they'll play him there, We need Kiriloff there as soon as possible.

[DJL44]

26 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

So the plan is to put 36/37 Santana at 1B fulltime or Miranda?

I would plan on Santana taking 1B since he rates much higher on defense than Miranda or Kirilloff.

[DJL44]

17 minutes ago, Cris E said:

Miranda and Larnach are around to get healthy and prove they can hit. Period.  Nothing else matters until that's settled, so you can just leave them out of the plans until March, when that question is answered and we're closer to actually establishing the lineup card.

I would keep them out of the plans until May, barring injury.

[Mike Sixel]

That's a lot of words to state the most obvious thing ever. Wallner was one of the best left fielders in the game last year. How is this a discussion?

[DJL44]

17 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

IMO Santana is a waste of money

Santana is basically the same as playing Polanco at 1B, which was suggested by several here, but at half the cost.

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

I think they want to take Kiriloff slow coming off a sore shoulder. This could mean primary DH to begin with then 1B when his shoulder is 100% I hope he'd be able to get over to the OF if needed & to get some more ABs in.

The injury was to his non-throwing shoulder FWIW. I've visualized AK as the primary first baseman for the last three years. He was last year for a while (platooned, of course) and I hope youth is served eventually at first base by having Kirilloff as the first baseman even when Santana is in the lineup.