The Twins Have a Rotation; They Still Need a Playoff Ace

[Peter Labuza]

The Twins’ newest pitching acquisition will serve a critical purpose in their fight to reclaim the Central Division, but the team still needs another postseason starter.

Image courtesy of © Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports

In their decisive series win against the Toronto Blue Jays in breaking the curse, the Twins relied on two critical pitchers: Pablo López and Sonny Gray. The team’s two aces, who finished first and second in Twins Daily’s MVP poll ahead of any hitter, ensured the team had a fighting chance against a team full of dominant hitters. 

The 2024 Twins have found rotation backup by acquiring Anthony DeSclafani, coming over in a package of players for Jorge Polanco. DeSclafani will no doubt bolster their position throughout the season, and if the Twins can sprinkle that Pete Maki pitching guru wisdom, turn him into his 2021 self again. 

But DeSclafani doesn’t fill the hole left by Sonny Gray, and more importantly, doesn’t help them in turning next October into an even longer campaign. The Twins will need another ace.

Just look at the teams that made the World Series last year. The Diamondbacks used three caliber starting pitchers (Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, and Brandon Pfaadt). The Rangers got away with two aces (Nathan Eovaldi and Jordan Montgomery—who is available by the way) and an injured Max Scherzer picking up some slack. Remember how three 100-win season teams all got bounced early? All had questionable pitching lined up before their divisional series began and paid the consequences. 

There is no magic rule to the post season but having great starting pitching is a no-brainer. The Twins carefully curated the exposure of their starters beyond López and Gray while throwing both Louie Varland and Kenta Maeda into the bullpen. Teams rely on aces for a reason, and an ace can only appear so many times during a postseason. 

DeSclafani is hardly an innings eater in the sense of its contemporary use, but he provides the kind of back stop necessary to make it through the season. As strong as the starting rotation proved to be through 2023, it takes more than five to make it through a season, which included at least a handful of starts by Tyler Mahle and Dallas Keuchel. This year, Minnesota can easily turn to their almost-ready minor leaguers like David Festa, but DeSclafani going every fifth time through will prove essential. The former Giant pitched at least five innings in fourteen of his nineteen starts last year, the kind of stat you want from any back of the rotation guy.

But picking up fifth starts is irrelevant when it comes to postseason action. The Twins will need to determine who will sit behind López. Bailey Ober got pulverized by a dominant Houston team. Joe Ryan had a tight leash during an elimination game. Paddack looked dominant in his brief role, but it’s unclear how he might play after throwing a complete season. Any of them could make the step up throughout the 2024 campaign, but that’s also asking more than anyone expects.

If DeSclafani were to turn his entire career around, perhaps he fills that role. But the Twins hardly expect him to fill that role. His only previous start in postseason was a beat down the Dodgers in 2021 that resulted in two runs before being pulled after facing only five batters.

That means the search for another ace begins. That might mean waiting out half the season and testing the trade market come July, but those prices can come steep. Plus, part of the benefit of signing someone now is being able to work all spring training and beyond to develop their skills to a new level. 

One might ask: why worry about October? With the streak over, teams like the Twins can no longer simply hope for a good luck of the draw.

But now there are expectations: with this class of rookies, stars like Carlos Correa and Byrxon Buxton returning to health, and dominant pitching for the first time in decades, the Twins need to hope for more than October luck. It’s time to start engineering a serious, competitive team. That will require not just another arm, but an ace. 

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[Karbo]

I believe to go far in post season you need either a dominate starting rotation or a good rotation and dominate bullpen. At this point as the article says we have Lopez. I do believe Paddack will be better than avg. but questions about his health must be answered. Ryan needs to work on his secondary pitches, Ober has health questions, and so does Desclafini. Varland will almost certainly be needed at some point and after him would be a mystery. They also need bullpen help IMO. So looking at it on paper, can this team try to outslug and outscore other playoff teams? Of course this all assumes they even make the playoffs which is a fair assumption in this division.

[Jeff K]

On paper, the bullpen looks to be an area of strength.  Moving Varland to the pen as well as our additions, this looks like a deep bullpen with a lot of velocity.  

[Cory Engelhardt]

I always appreciate Brandon Warne reminding when this thought comes up; the 2014 Detroit Tigers were swept in the playoffs, and they had a starting rotation including Verlander, Scherzer and Price.

Nothing is ever guaranteed in the playoffs. Ask Atlanta and Baltimore this year, for different reasons.

All of that said, better pitching gives you a better chance. I like our pitching staff as a whole. I love the bullpen, I like the starters.

If the Twins can add someone so that we can love our starters too, that would help. We would want to have at least two guys who can comfortably start a playoff game by October right, and hopefully a lot sooner

[pierre75275]

I still think they will get another starting pitcher.

Maybe RYU, Cleveringer (sp) or maybe via trade or maybe they work out a interesting contract for Snell or Montgomery.

But I don't think they are done yet

[Doctor Gast]

We entered the '24 offseason with only one need & that's another postseason SP. That's where all our attention should be to finalize a deal for an ace type. Not being distracted by adding depth to already deep positions. Before DeSclafani we had a good rotation. Most of this article is about DeSclafani, he's not critical for us to win the division. Hope that Maki can do his magic will do nothing for us any more than Johnson could work magic on Happ, Shoemaker or Colume'. We already have a lot of 5th starters in Varland, Fiesta & SWR. 5th starter are "a dime a dozen". If we get another postseason starter that'll push everybody yet further down.

For a postseason SP, I'm not talking about SEA's young arms type because that's like getting a version of Ryan/Ober. We needed to have a feasible Plan A maybe Plan B & go all in to make it happen with no pussy-footing around. That was not done. W/o another postseason SP, we won't win more than 1 postseason game.

[JD-TWINS]

The ACE talk is oversimplified IMO. It’s great to say we need an Ace - we need at least a #2, but it isn’t a simple thing to make happen.

Can’t sign Snell due to years/$$, nor should we sign Snell.

Jordan Montgomery for 5 years and $130M is a big stretch & that’s his low end - oh, & there’s probably 6-10 other teams in the mix for him.

Clevinger could be a #2-3 guy but not any more consistent nor better than the Ryan/Ober combination.

H J Ryu could be an uptick over Kuechel - great history - low ERA - been hurt most of last 2 years.

”Trade” for one………..teams really like to keep their best 1 or 2 pitchers!

Burnes would have been a wasteful one year rental that would have depleted young assets.

I target Devin Williams in the midst of the Brewer reshuffle ……..he’s got 2 years of availability & they need some starting pitching. We could TRY with DeSclafani - Winder - Headrick - SWR & the late #1 compensatory pick we’re getting for Gray. The Brewers have traded Houser & Burnes & lost Woodruff. Need some MLB arms to eat innings & be competitive. Williams is maybe the best reliever in the game & he makes $7.25M & then $10.5M. Adding him & Topa to our existing mix would establish a dominant Pen for next 2 years. With the DeSclafani exchange the Twins only spend $3.25M more $$.

#5, roll with Varland - Festa ………..sign Ryu or preferably Clevinger.

With TV $$ seeming to be more & more certain, taking the payroll to $142M seems realistic - still an 8% reduction from last year.

[rv78]

If a #2 pitcher is not in the works they:

1. Better plan on scoring a lot more runs than they did last year.

2. Hope that Ryan and/or Ober improve over last year

3. Hope the bullpen becomes "lights out" like the Royals had in their WS run in 2015.

4. All of the above.

[Eris]

The challenge is that other teams are are also looking for starting pitching. The consequences being that even average pitching has become very expensive. 

[Fatbat]

Its a long time until October and a lot will have to go wrong for the twins to not be in the thick of the playoffs.  Im not sure if ownership is all in yet to make the investment in a complete team. They may just continue to lag behind teams like Baltimore that act on their open window.  I hear that Montgomery wants to return to Texas but MN is just a few miles north and  has better lakes. Someone convince him to sign a decent 4 yr contract with us please! 

[Twinkies are for eating]

Starting pitching dominates in the playoffs. We saw proof positive last year with our own club. We would have never made it past Toronto without Pablo. Before we bounced Toronto everyone talked about the record playoff drought. It was no surprise to me. This team has not had any dominant starting pitchers since Johan. Sure you can win the Central with this current staff, but that’s not a given. Seems to me the Pohlads once again are happy to put a .500ish roster together and laugh at us diehard fans who dream of next year while they count their billions. It’s a broken record and Bally sports has control over our broadcasts with limited streaming for home games. What has changed?

[DJL44]

This is like saying that all an NFL team needs is a top 5 QB. Ace pitching is the scarcest commodity in baseball and teams that can produce it from the minor leagues have a huge advantage. That means consistently trading veteran players for promising pitching talent.

[Peter]

Not worried one bit about twins-they will get another starter before season starts

[strumdatjag]

Pablo Lopez was an all-star last year - he is the current Ace.  But the Twins need more if they want to be able make a run in the playoffs (I know - let’s get there first).   They need a solid 1-2-3 to face the 1-2-3 pitchers of other playoff caliber teams.   They need improvement from current pitchers (Ober, Ryan …).   Adding a stud pitcher would help.  Adding a 4-5 level player does nothing that internal options don’t already address. 

[Blyleven2011]

This article is spot on ...

I have been saying this for years , we have a pitching staff that can be competitive  but aren't a playoff  contender  ...

It showed last year what strong pitching can do , Last year we had a very solid starting pitching staff  and we made progress in the playoffs but fell short ...

Now we are taking a step back in starting pitcher , we are not starting the season with a 1 / 2 punch , behind lopez , hòw long Paddack can stay healthy or on a pitch limit  , Ober wasn't bad until he tired  and Ryan muffed an injury and second half faltered 

The time to add a high quality starting pitcher is in the off season by trade  because we know the FO doesn't  add expensive and long term starting pitchers in free agency  ...

The the FO  seems to be better at trading during off season  and has muffed most of the deadline trades ...

And if they find a trading partner at the deadline it's very expensive and the teams trading their top starters to desperate teams ( deadline trades ) will want top prospects in return and plenty of them ...

We still have time before the season starts to add that quality pitcher at a lesser price than the deadline  ... 

Plus there is a probability  of TV revenue contract coming back at 40 million  instead of 55 million ....

WHY SHOULDN'T WE HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A QUALITY STARTER  AND A PAYROLL OF 135 MILLION ....

[D.C Twins]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I always appreciate Brandon Warne reminding when this thought comes up; the 2014 Detroit Tigers were swept in the playoffs, and they had a starting rotation including Verlander, Scherzer and Price.

Nothing is ever guaranteed in the playoffs. Ask Atlanta and Baltimore this year, for different reasons.

All of that said, better pitching gives you a better chance. I like our pitching staff as a whole. I love the bullpen, I like the starters.

If the Twins can add someone so that we can love our starters too, that would help. We would want to have at least two guys who can comfortably start a playoff game by October right, and hopefully a lot sooner

Good God... I forgot about that rotation.... Also the Maddox, Glavine, Smoltz (and others) from Atlanta that 'only' won one WS

[tony&rodney]

The answer is Louie Varland. All hopes are high going into Spring Training.

[Jocko87]

Starting pitching is certainly one way to do it. Another is a dominant bullpen, which they are taking a stab at. The 15 Royals were game over with a lead in the 5th. With the extra days off in the playoffs the bullpen guys can go every game where the starter has to perform for several innings at once and you still need to pitch the other games.

Duran, Jax, Stewart, Theilbar, one of the new guys and playoff Varland can cover a lot of postseason innings. Ryan, Ober and Paddack do have the ability to get 4-5 postseason innings even if they aren't the 8 inning horses.

[NotAboutWinning]

1 minute ago, Jocko87 said:

Starting pitching is certainly one way to do it. Another is a dominant bullpen, which they are taking a stab at. The 15 Royals were game over with a lead in the 5th. With the extra days off in the playoffs the bullpen guys can go every game where the starter has to perform for several innings at once and you still need to pitch the other games.

Duran, Jax, Stewart, Theilbar, one of the new guys and playoff Varland can cover a lot of postseason innings. Ryan, Ober and Paddack do have the ability to get 4-5 postseason innings even if they aren't the 8 inning horses.

Agreed. With the insane cost of starters, a dominate bullpen may be a much more cost-efficient way to get some wins.

[MMMordabito]

See if Teheran, Velasquez (if healthy) or Keller will take an MiLB deal - they are 3 of the 24 starting pitchers available on the MLBTR FA list, and then trade for a higher end pitcher at the deadline if the development and seasoning of the current group doesn't advance enough to cover the #2 spot come playoff time. I mean if Brandon Pfaadt is the bar for quality playoff starter, I'm not too worried.

To paraphrase what Jocko stated in another thread - The Twins have the roster to remain the team to beat in the AL Central right now, and that gives them the luxury of time to get a good look at younger and fringe players to see who rises to the top. 

[MGX]

1 hour ago, Twinkies are for eating said:

Starting pitching dominates in the playoffs. We saw proof positive last year with our own club. We would have never made it past Toronto without Pablo. Before we bounced Toronto everyone talked about the record playoff drought. It was no surprise to me. This team has not had any dominant starting pitchers since Johan. Sure you can win the Central with this current staff, but that’s not a given. Seems to me the Pohlads once again are happy to put a .500ish roster together and laugh at us diehard fans who dream of next year while they count their billions. It’s a broken record and Bally sports has control over our broadcasts with limited streaming for home games. What has changed?

I'm guessing the defending champion Texas Rangers see this differently. None of the starters that made big contributions in the post-season were considered "Aces" or "playoff caliber pitchers" going into last season. They made it work with a very good position player group a bullpen that was patched together & some starters who pitched beyond expectations (primarily Eovaldi who has a career ERA of 4.10).

The idea that you can add a SP & that will make all the difference in the playoffs is short sighted. Any improvement in your position player group, bullpen or rotation is valuable. It doesn't have to be from one group.

This isn't the 60's or 70's where a starter will pitch 3 games in a series & go 8+ innings in each start. Those days are long gone & that means all three areas are of similar value in terms generating Wins. IMO a strong position player group holds the most value of the three.

[Blyleven2011]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

5th starter are "a dime a dozen".

. W/o another postseason SP, we won't win more than 1 postseason game.

If 5th starters are a dime a dozen  , our FO got fleeced again  , haha ...

Without a quality pitcher behind lopez , we will win enough games to win the division  but it won't be enough wins  to get out of the wildcard slot ...

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, rv78 said:

If a #2 pitcher is not in the works they:

1. Better plan on scoring a lot more runs than they did last year.

2. Hope that Ryan and/or Ober improve over last year

3. Hope the bullpen becomes "lights out" like the Royals had in their WS run in 2015.

4. All of the above.

Similar thoughts:

1) Played about as poorly as possible on offense from May 1 - July 20. Actually, not much better in April, just won more. Gotta be better with the line-up going out there in ‘24.

2) Both guys were in their 2nd years in the Show last year. With health, they have to improve. Frankly, I don’t think Ober can be much better other than just remaining durable and taking the ball - his performances were generally pretty good! Ryan needs to master his command, very difficult thing, to be more effective in ‘24.

3) I think they could add to the Pen to offset any Starter deficiencies. I’ve said 15 times here they should push chips to the middle for Devin Williams - more control (2 yrs.) - affordable $7.25M - lights out pitcher. Otherwise, if they can’t spend much, sign H.J. Ryu to split the #4-#5 slot and move Varland to the Pen……..OR, if Varland looks really good, maybe the better way to get innings that matter with least risk of overuse, is to put Paddack in the Pen? He looked really, really good in September & October.

Ryu - DeSclafani - Festa - Paddack could over the #4/#5 slots.

………………

Jordan Montgomery would simplify everything!!

[Fatbat]

4 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Similar thoughts:

1) Played about as poorly as possible on offense from May 1 - July 20. Actually, not much better in April, just won more. Gotta be better with the line-up going out there in ‘24.

2) Both guys were in their 2nd years in the Show last year. With health, they have to improve. Frankly, I don’t think Ober can be much better other than just remaining durable and taking the ball - his performances were generally pretty good! Ryan needs to master his command, very difficult thing, to be more effective in ‘24.

3) I think they could add to the Pen to offset any Starter deficiencies. I’ve said 15 times here they should push chips to the middle for Devin Williams - more control (2 yrs.) - affordable $7.25M - lights out pitcher. Otherwise, if they can’t spend much, sign H.J. Ryu to split the #4-#5 slot and move Varland to the Pen……..OR, if Varland looks really good, maybe the better way to get innings that matter with least risk of overuse, is to put Paddack in the Pen? He looked really, really good in September & October.

Ryu - DeSclafani - Festa - Paddack could over the #4/#5 slots.

………………

Jordan Montgomery would simplify everything!!

Put DeSclafani in the pen and sign Montgomery. 

[JD-TWINS]

Just now, Fatbat said:

Put DeSclafani in the pen and sign Montgomery. 

No issue with trading DeSclafani’s salary away for little return to help pay for Montgomery!!

[terrydactyls]

Instead of waiting until the ink is dry on the new TV contract, I would like to see the Twins "anticipate" the signing and move NOW to strengthen the bullpen or sign Montgomery (or both).  Act now while other teams are playing the waiting game.  Plus, if you act now, MLB will throw in two extra prime-time dates on the TV schedule!  Hurry.  The supply of quality pitching is limited.  🤩

[GNess]

Nice article. There really isn't just one formula for postseason success However, I will concede that quality pitching (starters and/or relievers) are likely a key in many scenarios,  but not anywhere near a guarantee as noted on this thread the numerous ace pitching staffs that came up short of the World Series title. 

Since there is only one champion a year it seems that the wisest strategic approach, and I think the one the current front office has basically deployed,  is to assemble a core roster, player development program and farm system that can produce .500+ competitive seasons as often as possible. The more you are knocking on the door the more likely you are to have it open for you with the caveat when you believe you have a team that is most likely to have a shot to win it all, you trade off some future assets from the deepest player pool you have to acquire that key piece or two that improves your chances.

Does the FO consider this current core group of that more likely variety? If so more moves to come...

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Ok  first off we have find the hardest thing in baseball to find -  an Ace and we have that in Pablo.  

2ndly,  we have Joe Ryan how is he that much different that a Kelly or Pfaadt?  FYI Pfaadt had a negative war last year.  Ober had a 3 War just a step below Kelly.  Honestly Lopez, Ryan and Ober actually match up with Merrill Kelly and Pfaadt.  

Ive said it in other thread though, Paddack has the highest upside.  Paddack has the potential to be your #2 pitcher in the playoffs.   The stuff he showed in the playoffs was off the charts.  Now does he have the same effectiveness in a starters role.  

I am very much beginning to rethink Desclafani.  I thought he was cleared to pitch,  but he may not even be cleared to pitch and if not,  that is not a good sign.  They are stating they want him to be in the rotation, but will have to wait and see.  He was a negative asset in the trade and effectively treated as such.  Likely got more prospect return for taking on the remainder of his 4 million salary.   It really comes down to can he pitch or is the elbow shot.  If healthy,  I actually think he can be a decent #3 or #4 this year,  maybe higher if we can unlock something with him.   So a slight shot at a #2 pitcher like he was with the Giants in 2021.  If Minnesota doesn't view him as healthy,  then we have another move coming.  

Beyond that we have the prospect capital to find a #2 at the trade deadline as the minors are actually starting to get a tad clogged.  

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I will agree with the argument that you can never have too much pitching, but thinking that there’s only one way to experience playoff success is only right until it isn’t anymore.  The game is too variable for that to be true.  
 

As for the Twins rotation, I don’t think things are so dire.  Lopez is widely expected to take another step and become a top fivish pitcher in the league.  I think that might be true and that’s great (but it may not happen). Assuming the Twins don’t have a “playoff starter” means that you don’t expect Ryan, Ober, or Paddack to take any type of step forward this year.  I don’t think all three will, but I would bet on at least one of them being very good and maybe even two of them.  There is your second playoff starter.  Will this happen?  I don’t know, but the idea is very plausible.  

[TopGunn#22]

There is no question that the staff, as it is presently arrayed is enough to win the division (and maybe not enough that we lose the division) but it is one #1 or #2 SP short to seriously challenge in the playoffs. 

If Varland and Canterino, with the addition of Topa and Staumont as well as the firepower the Twins already have are all in our bullpen THAT is a pen that could be very effective in the regular AND post season.

But the question remains, who will be that #2?  Let's play make believe that Joe Ryan is more "1st half of the season Joe" than "2nd half of the season Joe" for the entire 2024 season.  In my opinion, the Twins STILL NEED one more top shelf arm to be able to go toe to toe with the Orioles (who now have Burnes), the Astros (who are still the Astros and now have Hader), the Rangers (who are the defending World Series Champions) and maybe the Yankees if all their pitchers not named Cole are finally healthy for an entire season (Rodan, Cortes, Stroman etc...).  

The easy answer with a $47 million dollar windfall from Balley is to sign Montgomery or Snell.  The fact that the Twins have never done such a thing and that they probably won't leads to the next question.  Do they wait until the trade deadline and try to deal for a good SP on a losing team (when everyone else who's contending will probably be in the same position)?  Or do they make a trade within the next couple of days to address this NOW.

I prefer the proactive approach.  Why wait when waiting means you will need to out bid ALL the other potential contenders and limit your benefit from this SP to 35% of the season?  I can hope they will make a fairly quick, proactive move.  But I'm not holding my breath.