Should the Twins Trade For This Baltimore Orioles Starting Pitcher?

[Cody Schoenmann]

As the New Year approaches, the Twins front office remains adrift in the offseason doldrums, and fans are getting antsy. Could trade winds blow in a pitcher from Baltimore to get things moving?

Image courtesy of Tommy Gilligan - USA TODAY Sports

In his novel Slaughterhouse-Five, author Kurt Vonnegut depicts an interaction between the protagonist of the novel, Billy Pilgrim, and a Tralfamadorian. That's the alien species who abduct Billy, put him on display in a zoo-like dome on their planet, and teach him their philosophy on life. During the interaction, the Tralfmadorians deliver Billy an enlightening truth about the universe and life. The conversation goes

Quote

"Why you? Why us for that matter? Why anything? Because the moment simply is. Have you ever seen bugs trapped in amber?"

"Yes," Billy, in fact, had a paperweight in his office which was a blob of polished amber with three ladybugs embedded in it.

"Well, here we are, Mr. Pilgrim, trapped in the amber of this moment. There is no why."

Though this passage addresses more introspective and existential trains of thought, it feels fitting to describe the present state of the offseason. Here we are, Twins fans: bugs trapped in amber. 

Though the organization presently finds itself in this state, the Twins will likely execute a significant trade or free-agent signing before the start of spring training. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey and the front office purposely idle and let the free-agent and trade markets play out, until they feel that making a move is the correct course of action. Remember, two of the most significant transactions in franchise history (the long-term signing of Carlos Correa and the Luis Arraez-for-Pablo López swap) didn't occur until mid-January. 

As we sit here in mid-December, the team's priority is to replace the recently departed American League Cy Young Award runner-up Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda, who generated a combined 6.4 Wins Above Replacement at Baseball Reference (bWAR).

Chris Paddack looks to be the one-for-one replacement for Maeda in the starting rotation, and while replacing Gray will be a much more strenuous endeavor, names like Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber, Jesús Luzardo, and Logan Gilbert have been thrown around by many as potential replacement plans. Acquiring one of those guys would generate major buzz in Twins Territory, but the organization's likelihood of pulling off a trade that noteworthy again seems thin. 

Could it make sense, instead, for the front office to acquire a back-of-the-rotation starter who would effectively move Louie Varland to the "sixth starter" role and start the season at Triple-A St. Paul, similar to what Bailey Ober did in 2023, or let him join the bullpen in the place of newly-minted Reds reliever Emilio Pagán?

If so, many arms are available who could be acquired for a package that would be palatable. Of those options, this steady, cost-controlled Baltimore Orioles right-handed starting pitcher could make sense.

Dean Kremer - Baltimore Orioles - 172 2/3 innings, 4.12 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 1.5 fWAR
Kremer, 27, is the epitome of a consistent middle-to-back of the rotation starting pitcher who can put together a string of highly effective starts, similar to the campaign Varland put together last season. The difference between the two is that Kremer has been able to perform at this rate over 53 starts since the beginning of the 2022 season, while Varland only strung together five above-average starts before being sent down to Triple-A St. Paul and returning later in the season as a reliever.

Also, Varland had a severe home-run issue as a starter, evidenced by the 20.6% HR/FB he yielded over the 56 innings pitched as a starter for the Twins last season. For reference, Kremer generated a 13.9% HR/FB over 172 2/3 innings he pitched for the 101-win Orioles. Also, Kremer performed better than Varland in specific park-adjusted metrics such as:

(*100 is average, and lower is better) 

ERA-

• Varland - 110
• Kremer - 98

FIP-

• Varland - 119
• Kremer - 107

According to Baseball Savant's "Park Factors Leaderboard," Oriole Park at Camden Yards is the eighth-most hitter-friendly park in Major League Baseball, compared to Target Field, the 18th most hitter-friendly park. Kremer made 18 of his 32 starts (56%) of his starts in Baltimore, while Varland made four of his 10 (40%) at home in Minnesota; his other six starts came at ballparks that are considered more pitcher-friendly. To be specific, here are the other six stadiums at which Varland made starts, with their respective "Park Factors Leaderboard" ranking:

• Yankee Stadium (22nd)
• Guaranteed Rate Field (14th)
• Angel Stadium (13th)
• Minute Maid Park (17th)
• Tropicana Field (28th)
• Rogers Centre (15th)

None of these parks are more hitter-friendly than Camden Yards, and only two of the six tilt toward being hitter-friendly. Even those parks are right around average. Nevertheless, Kremer pitched in a much less pitcher-friendly environment than Varland and could thrive if half his starts were at Target Field.

I don't mean to bash Varland, but the idea of him being the Twins' fifth starter going into 2024 makes me uneasy. If the Twins front office elects not to shell out prospects for a frontline starter and to pursue a lower-tier option instead, then Kremer should be a top target. Kremer could slot in as the team's fourth starter behind Joe Ryan and Ober, rounding out a respectable back end of the rotation with Paddack.

As illustrated in the video above, Kremer is a unique pitcher who utilizes entirely different pitches, depending on the handedness of the batter. The former 14th-round-pick is an "east-to-west" pitcher, using a fastball-cutter-sinker mix 90% of the time when facing same-handed hitters. Against lefties, though, he becomes a pitcher who leans on his changeup as a complement to his four-seam fastball. That's a fascinating and seemingly effective strategy, but it would be interesting to see if the Twins would encourage Kremer to lean on a more consistent approach that emphasizes his strengths. He and the team's coaching staff could thus fine-tune his pitch mix as the season develops and batters make adjustments to him.

Kremer isn't a free agent until the end of the 2027 season, and that club control would compel the Twins to surrender something substantial for him. The Twins would probably need to send a package of David Festa (a near-MLB-ready arm) and José Miranda to the Orioles to acquire a cheap, controllable hurler like Kremer. 

Nevertheless, the Twins will acquire a starting pitcher this offseason. Though it would be ideal if the organization traded for an analog of Gray like Burnes, Bieber, Luzardo, or Gilbert, their budget and farm system might make that impossible. Is Kremer an attractive target? Would you trade Festa and Miranda for his services? Join the discussion and comment below. 

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[LewFordLives]

Interesting, but not happening. Orioles are looking for starting pitching help, same as the Twins. There's no way they trade Kremer.

The Twins are in a tough spot. It's rare that decent starters are made available. If someone like Luzardo or Gilbert are dangled on the trading block (and I doubt they will be) there are 10 playoff contenders willing to bite.

[Hrbeks Divot]

I don’t like the idea of acquiring a 4-5 starter by trade, even if controllable for a couple of years. That’s especially true if we need to use one of our own close to MLB ready pitching prospects to make it happen. If we’re going to part with prospects I’d much rather package a couple high prospects and pay the freight to get a Gilbert or Luzardo. Otherwise pickup a free agent backend starter and hope to hit on him or roll with what we have.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I like the idea, and I appreciate the research. I'd prefer a more top-of-the-rotation type arm. But he is young, cheap for a long time, and has shown some success. IF Baltimore is open to trading any pitching they have (are they?) and the Twins see something to unlock, then this isn't a crazy idea.

That said, our best potential trade chips are young bats. Where is a spot that Baltimore needs more bats? It seems like they would mostly be in the market to add pitching as well? Or are you thinking of trading some of our young arms for him?

[TwinsDr2021]

He is basically a 5 inning starter that doesn't strike out guys, no thanks.

[Otaknam]

I wouldn’t do that trade. Festa’s fastball is a few MPH better than Kremer’s, so  I am hoping that he has more of an upside than a #4-5 starter. 

[Karbo]

No way I'm trading a top prospect and Miranda (who I believe is a big bounce back candidate) for a 4 or 5 slot pitcher, unless there is truly something to unlock. Trading a prospect like Festa who projects more as a 2 or 3 slot pitcher doesn't make sense unless you get a guy that has at least as much of a ceiling.

[TwinsDr2021]

22 hours ago, Otaknam said:

I wouldn’t do that trade. Festa’s fastball is a few MPH better than Kremer’s, so  I am hoping that he has more of an upside than a #4-5 starter. 

Festa turns 24 in March, has a minor league ERA of 3.88 and has pitched 3 innings AAA. So the probability of him becoming something more than a 4 or 5 isn't real high, I hope he exceeds that, but I am not expecting or counting on it. He has a very similar minor league profile to Joe Ryan, except Ryan was better in the minors

[Blyleven2011]

Cutting payroll  and FO  very stagnant on pitching additions  ,

Falvey and Levine  should have taken a vacation  , oh wait , Pohlads cut payroll and FO had to forfeit the 2 week paid vacations  ....

[nicksaviking]

Acquiring more back of the rotation arms feels like the bug trapped in ember.

This team doesn't need more of that type of pitcher, they are all stocked up. 

[old nurse]

Trading for him would make sense if what the team needed was a back of the rotation starter. That is not the case Trading for a back of rotation starter would make sense if your only goal was to barely win the division.  Most would hope that is not the goal. If just winning the division was enough Terry Ryan would still be the GM 

[hitterscount]

They are going to have to trade some prospects if they want to or are serious in replacing Gray. We have been down this road way to often in the signings of arms like Bundy's Archers, Shoemaker, etc...   the bottom of the free agent dumpster, Kremer is an upgrade from those pitchers but is a backend rotation arm. need to go higher... meaning they overpay for a quality arm.  

[jjswol]

At first blush I would ask - why trade for a pitcher from a team that is looking for pitching too?

[tony&rodney]

The folks who write for Twins Daily have done a remarkable job of churning out content on a consistent basis to the point where Twins fans have no need of The Athletic, MLB.com, or the Trib for interesting content. Whether there is agreement, disagreement, or occasional disinterest readers can find a post. Thank you to all of those who write the posts. I appreciate the writing and especially the work that goes into the product. Often I go immediately into my thoughts on an article, which is as it should be, but felt it necessary (for me) to preface any further comments with a genuine word (or two) of thanks.

Slaughterhouse-Five is one of the best anti-war books ever written. Would that we had literate politicians who could read and reflect. Numerous WWII veterans, including my father, commented on the brilliance of this work as the best commentary on war. An interesting choice for a baseball post.

The Baltimore Orioles have an absolutely loaded system and the Twins were already quite kind in their giving them Cade Povich and Cano. It seems that the search for pitching has reached a fever pitch, more perhaps than at any time in my memory. The Orioles managed to finish 7th best in MLB in both runs scored and in runs given up, a balanced team. The Twins, for comparison, finished 10th in runs scored and 3rd in runs given up. The Twins lost some pitchers and have some hopes that their offense of the second half of 2023 will hold for an entire season in 2024. This leads me to a few conclusions.

The Twins cannot afford to trade pitching prospects who are close to MLB ready unless they are a part of a larger deal which returns a potential front of the rotation pitcher with four or more years of control. While Dean Kremer is a fine pitcher, I do not see a transaction for him because 1) the Orioles need to keep the pitching they have and add to their staff and 2) the Twins have a sufficient lineup of guys who fill the middle and back end of a starting rotation. All of Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Louie Varland, and Chris Paddack are solid pitchers. The Twins need to add a guy who could fit in above these guys. Right now, the market is still unsteady but there may be an opportunity for the Twins to acquire their guy in a trade. It looks like we will wait until then. 

[BigHurt35]

A fine target to go after but the teams do not match up for a trade.  Balt is loaded with hitters at the major league level and in AAA with multiple MLB top 25 prospects ready to go.  So the Twins key trade chips (hitters) would not even crack their current lineup or future lineup.  They need pitching in same areas we need pitching.  Flip side would be Balt asking for Ryan for a util infielder and possible pen arm prospect.  Not going to happen!  Balt is a young possible dynasty in the making and should be going after top of the line pitching now to make their run while they have young cheap contracts for their superstar studs.   

[Minny505]

I think the HR comparison here is broken. Yes, the Orioles ranked 12th in HR-friendly stadium, but that ranking is based off a three-year average. Turn off the three-year average and it paints a MUCH different picture.

The Orioles stadium in 2023, after moving the LF wall back, ranked 23rd with a score of 91. Meanwhile, the Twins stadium is getting more homer-friendly every season, and in 2023 it ranked 9th with a score of 107.

Varland is certainly the more homer-prone pitcher in this comparison, as we saw on display even when he was a reliever, but the gap on a neutral field is likely only 1-2 percentage points. Varland looks vastly superior in all other components of run-prevention. 

[Doctor Gast]

For all the reason that the other members have beaten me to what I wanted to say, not going to happen. We can do ATL (Contreras)/ OAK (Murphy)/ MIL type of trade to upgrade & MN (Arraez)/ MIA (Lopez) type strength to weakness  trade to improve our team.

Please not like '21 again, after we won the division where FO punted by letting Rosario walk & depended on Cave, Kiriloff & Larnach, & then Celestino, and then converted INFer Gordon & Refsnyder to OF. Scrambling at the end they scraped Happ, Shoemaker & Colume from bottom the barrel & convinced the fanbase what great additions they were.

Maybe this year after they trade off one or more of the 4. They can scrape together enough money to sign a  FA RH version of Gallo. Please excuse my sarcasm.

[2wins87]

This is maybe not the biggest thing when considering Kremer's potential, but this just seemed really off to me:

Quote

According to Baseball Savant's "Park Factors Leaderboard," Oriole Park at Camden Yards is the eighth-most hitter-friendly park in Major League Baseball, compared to Target Field, the 18th most hitter-friendly park.

Camden used to be a super hitter friendly park, but this just didn't seem like it could possibly be true after they moved the left field wall way back (and up).  Baseball savant uses 3-year rolling averages by default, so Camden only ranks as more hitter friendly than Target field if you include 2021, before the wall was moved, in the average.

Kremer was terrible in 2021, which maybe isn't super relevant as he was also new to the league.  But if we base the discussion off of his last two years when he was pretty good, we should also base the park factors off of only those two years.  According to Savant, Camden had park factors of 99 and 96 in 2022 and 2023 respectively, which puts it definitely in the bottom third of parks in terms of hitter friendliness over the last 2 years.  Target field's park factor was 100 both years, right around average.

Whatever his other merits, I think the idea that he would be helped by Target field is just wrong.

At any rate, the Orioles have a system loaded with young mlb hitters and near-ready hitting prospects.  I think they would ask for quite a bit for Kremer and I don't see why they would have any interest in Miranda or really any of the Twins most valuable hitting assets.  I don't think they really match up as a trade partner for the Twins at all.

 

[darin617]

Looks like someone forgot Baltimore actually got good and are not looking to trade away arms now. This article would have made sense a few years ago.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Lets see, Varland could either be an elite RP,  or may have found what level of pitching is needed in the mlb to succeed and be even better than Kremer.  Beyond that the Orioles are not trading away any starting pitching.  They already have gaps,  they won't create more.  

[Mike Sixel]

I have no idea why the Twins would do this. None. 

[Brandon]

You didn't mention the 3.81 ERA Varland had in his trial with the Twins the year before.  He has earned a chance to start.  He may be good.  He is a likely a real good reliever.  The idea is to get a known quantity towards the top of the rotation for the playoffs.  Someone to replace what Gray brought to the table.  not just replace his innings with a 4.5 ERA.  Unless of course the front office believes they can add a notch to the pitcher's effectiveness with a new pitch (Sweeper) or a new mix of pitching strategy or adding a few miles to their fast balls.  or best yet a combo of those three things.  The Twins helped Gray elevate to ace level status.  Let's see if we can find a starter who they can do that again with. or get someone like Burnes from Milwaukee....  I am out on this pitcher from Baltimore.  

[TopGunn#22]

I agree with those who have posted something to the effect that "If we trade valued assets, let's not settle for a #4 or #5 SP."  Kremer is a back of the rotation guy.  In contrast, if you traded for someone like Bieber, or gave up a little more for a Miller/Woo type of young, controllable Seattle SP you would at least be acquiring a pitcher who has the potential to be a #2 or #3 as opposed to someone who will never rise above Ryan, Ober and Varland, and probably not over Paddack & Festa.

As Twins fans, we all HOPE Ryan can figure out how to limit HR's and finally take that step to be a #2 or even a #1.  He hasn't been ale to put a full season together yet.  Ober looks to be solid.  Paddack flashed some ability once upon a time as did Louie Varland.  

But the stated goal of the FO is to bring in a #2 to slot in behind Lopez and allow the Twins more time to gauge whether Ryan will ever take that step.  Bieber could be that #2.  He's not even 30 yet.  But the velocity drop last year concerns me.  Giolito could be that workhorse #2 that K's 200 guys and keeps you in enough games to win a lot of them.  Montas and Bauer would also be potential fits.

The question with our FO is always "who is going to be left when we finally decide to join the party?"  If all the pretty girls have been taken, we will find ourselves dancing with JA Happ or Dylan Bundy.  We've got to decide WHICH GIRL we want to dance with, before we end up disappointed.  Sometimes I just think the Twins philosophy isn't that we're too shy to ask that girl to dance.  We just can't decide WHO we really want to dance with.  

[chpettit19]

No, thanks.

[FilthyMogwai]

The Twins want to (and need to) aquire a #2 starter this off season. However, I'm skeptical that they'll be able to do so with Polanco and/or Kepler being the key pieces. I think it would require two things:

 

1. A willing trade partner: not sure many teams are looking to trade away SPs and if they are, the Twins will be competing with several teams to aquire meet a team's astronomical price for one, and;

 

2. Trading away elite prospects like Lee or Rodriguez.

 

As for this Baltimore pitcher, like others, I don't see why Baltimore would trade him unless someone overpays. 

[JesusisLord7]

How would trading for this kid help us win in the playoffs? Answer = It wouldn't. A big waste of prospect capital. If you are going to make a trade it has to be a guy that could win in the playoffs otherwise lets roll with the 6 or 7 guys that could be 4th or 5th starters we already have in our system. Is he better than Bailey Ober who got crushed. No!

[Blyleven2011]

7 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

For all the reason that the other members have beaten me to what I wanted to say, not going to happen. We can do ATL (Contreras)/ OAK (Murphy)/ MIL type of trade to upgrade & MN (Arraez)/ MIA (Lopez) type strength to weakness  trade to improve our team.

Please not like '21 again, after we won the division where FO punted by letting Rosario walk & depended on Cave, Kiriloff & Larnach, & then Celestino, and then converted INFer Gordon & Refsnyder to OF. Scrambling at the end they scraped Happ, Shoemaker & Colume from bottom the barrel & convinced the fanbase what great additions they were.

Maybe this year after they trade off one or more of the 4. They can scrape together enough money to sign a  FA RH version of Gallo. Please excuse my sarcasm.

Your excused  ...

[rv78]

I understand the work involved in writing up these articles and appreciate the effort in doing so, but isn't this just another one of those written on pure speculation? Is there any indication from anyone in the Orioles organization that they are taking offers for Kremer. If not, then there are 28 other clubs besides the Orioles that we could speculate have a pitcher or two that the Twins could trade for. Give us something with teeth that is in the works. If ya ain't got it then you might as well put the keyboard to rest. Speculation comes true about one time out of a hundred and it isn't worth the time to write about or read.

[DocBauer]

I'd much rather call up Miami for someone like Cabrera, same 27yrs of age, hasn't put it all together yet, but has actual upside.

[Fatbat]

I’m wouldn’t be giving up pitching to get pitching. The easiest way to improve the ‘24 Twins is to just go buy pitching. Someone should just hit the easy button.