Should the Twins Trade For This Baltimore Orioles Starting Pitcher?

[PatPfund]

When Dean Kremer was the same age as Louie Varland was last season, he started 13 games and had an ERA of 7.55. Which he then cut in half the next year.

I'd rather keep Festa and Miranda, and trust our own 2-time Minor League Pitcher of the Year to improve with experience from a far better starting point. Save the prospect trades for a better pitcher; you can sign rotation depth as a budget FA.

[TopGunn#22]

I agree Fatbat.  The easiest avenue to filling that #2 hole in the starting rotation would be to just go sign someone like Giolito, Bauer or Montas.  Bauer has been a Cy Young Award winner.  Giolito and Montas have each been the #`1 SP on their team.  They are veterans who, while having question marks also offer a track record that gives some sort of projectability for future production.  It is, as you so succinctly put it, hitting the "Easy Button."  

By going this route, the Twins remove all the pressure of needing to trade Polanco, Kepler, Vasquez, Farmer.  It also allows them the option to trade for prospect capital rather than exclusively focusing on someone who would be an immediate contributor.  

Let's play this out for the sake of discussion.  Rotation:  Lopez, Bauer, Ryan, Ober, Paddack.  Varland-bullpen or St. Paul SP.  Festa-pitching at St. Paul.  SWR-pitching at St. Paul.  

So there are 5 SP's and depth at St. Paul with Varland the obvious immediate call up.  But what if Varland is deemed the Pagan replacement?  To me, Varland becomes the 8th inning guy and closer when Duran is unavailable.  Jax becomes my Pagan replacement.  Canterino is also in St. Paul.  All he has to do is stay healthy and he's got a ticket to a Twins bullpen spot.

 The Twins could then do a trade like this:

Maybe the Twins don't get BOTH Sixto Sanchez and Ryan Weathers as throw ins.  But they could get one of them.  The Marlins get Polanco to play 2B and strengthen their lineup.  They also get a promising young OF who is expendable because the Twins have Jenkins and Rodriguez on the way with Wallner, Martin, Larnach and possibly Kirilloff either already on the team or on the doorstep. 

The Twins get a 26 year old SP in Cabrera who takes the #5 spot in the rotation and pushes Paddack to the #6 SP role which frees Varland to be a beast in the bullpen for 2024.  Cabrera has STUFF.  He just needs to be more consistent with his command and become more efficient.  Maybe the Twins can unlock that.  Getting Sanchez and or Weathers just adds more pitching depth to the Twins.  Weathers could find his way into the bullpen right away and at 24 years old still has SP potential.

This also allows the Twins to just hang onto Kepler and see what 2024 brings.  If Kepler has a year like 2023 it would be tremendous.  When 2025 rolls around Emmanuel Rodriguez could very well be taking his place.  

The Twins now roll into 2024 with a rotation of Lopez, Bauer, Ryan, Ober and Cabrera.  The bullpen is Duran, Varland, Stewart, Funderburk, Jax, Theilbar, Alcala.  Kepler is still in RF.  Wallner in LF.  Buxton--who knows, maybe Adam Duval is signed as a RH OF bat to play CF/LF allowing Wallner to sit against LH pitching and as Buxton insurance.  But the rotation and bullpen are division champion caliber.  You haven't moved Julien, Miranda, Kirilloff, Lee etc...so you've got another year to see what unfolds.

But as Fatbat stated, all this is possible if the Twins just hit the "EASY BUTTON."   

Twins

00

NAME	AGE	LEVEL	P1	P2	AVAILABILITY	YEARS	AFV	SALARY	SURPLUS	LOW	MEDIAN	HIGH
Edward Cabrera	26	Majors	SP		Medium	5	31.6	15.7	15.8	12.7	15.8	19
Sixto Sanchez	26	Majors	SP		Medium	5	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ryan Weathers	24	Majors	LRP	SP	Low	5	3.5	3.1	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.4

Total Value:

16.1

Marlins

00

NAME	AGE	LEVEL	P1	P2	AVAILABILITY	YEARS	AFV	SALARY	SURPLUS	LOW	MEDIAN	HIGH
Jorge Polanco	30	Majors	2B		Low	2	31.9	22.5	9.4	7.6	9.4	11.3
Yasser Mercedes	18	Minors	OF			0	0	0	8	6.4	8	9.6

Total Value:

17.4

[tony&rodney]

The Marlins are a bit of an enigma. They need a true starting catcher, a shortstop, and a first baseman/DH. If Miami sees a place on the field for Polanco, I believe they would trade Cabrera to the Twins. A throw in like Mercedes or Sean Mooney type would help add a controllable prospect that does not need to be on the 40 person roster. The Twins will not want to add guys who are out of options that do not figure to be contributors.

The money remains a mystery as far as adding Giolito. Bauer has his name brought up in numerous chats on various sites and every writer has said that there is currently zero interest from any MLB team. I believe Bauer is a firm no from the front office.

A ton of trade options have been proposed and are always interesting to think about. I'm pretty bullish on Louie Varland as the Twins #4 starting pitcher at this time. Chris Paddack fits perfectly as a #5 starting pitcher because he can be skipped in the rotation as the team uses the schedule to find him days for extra rest. Paddack will be lucky to reach 120 effective innings this season. Varland has no limitations at all.