What to Make of Carlos Correa's Defense at Shortstop?

[Nick Nelson]

He was just named a Gold Glove finalist, but the data suggests Carlos Correa's formerly elite glove is not what it once was.

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

When it comes to defense in baseball, often the defensive metrics just don't match up to the eye test or general consensus. One famous example would be Derek Jeter, who won five Gold Gloves in his career and was widely considered a premier shortstop, despite the fact that fielding statistics consistently rated him as below-average. 

Carlos Correa, conversely, is not a player whose fielding has been overrated relative to statistics. If anything, the opposite is true. Or it was. 

Metrics like Outs Above Average (OAA) and Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) consistently viewed Correa as one of the most impactful shortstops in the league throughout most of his career. From 2018 through 2021, here's where Correa ranked among shortstops in OAA, and among all MLB players as a percentile factor.

• 2018: 23 OAA – 2nd in MLB, 100th percentile
• 2019: 11 OAA – 7th in MLB, 96th percentile
• 2020: 4 OAA – 9th in MLB, 94th percentile
• 2021: 10 OAA – 6th in MLB, 96th percentile

Genuinely elite defense, year after year. Aided by his incredible arm, quick reactions, and strong instincts, Correa overcame a lack of standout foot speed to continually rank as one of the rangiest shortstops in the game. Culminating with a Platinum Glove award in 2021 that recognized him as the best overall defender in the game, fielding was a huge part of Correa's value proposition when the Twins signed him in 2022, and then re-signed him to a historic long-term deal in 2023.

Yet, ever since joining the Twins, Correa's defensive metrics have been completely out of line with his previous track record. In his first season here, Statcast had Correa producing negative-3 Outs Above Average, which ranked 32nd among shortstops (100+ attempts) and in the 18th percentile among all big-leaguers. 

We all wondered if perhaps that 2022 season would prove to be an outlier, and Correa's defensive numbers would bounce back toward career norms this year. Turns out he did, a little. Correa ranked 25th among shortstops with 1 OAA, a figure that placed him in the 64th percentile for big-leaguers. 

Not bad, but much more average than great, and probably not a result that lines up to the eye test for most Twins fans and (apparently) Gold Glove voters. 

 

Elsewhere, signs of a sudden yet sustained drop-off are even more vivid. Here's how Correa has rated out according to FanGraphs' Defensive Runs Above Average (DEF) metric over the past six years:

• 2018: 17.3 in 110 games
• 2019: 9.6 in 75 games
• 2020: 5.6 in 58 games
• 2021: 14.5 in 148 games
• 2022: 2.1 in 136 games
• 2023: 3.5 in 135 games

What to make of this stark decline in statistical defensive proficiency? It's hard to say that the metrics are missing something in Correa's performance given how consistently they assigned him massive defensive value prior to his time with the Twins. 

I think there are a few different reasons that Twins fans might perceive Correa's defense as more positively impactful than it has verifiably been. One is simply reputation. When you're treated by media and popular narratives as a great defender, it's a rep that tends to gain traction and stick, regardless of evidence to the contrary. Jeter benefited from this.

Another thing is that Correa is just a really good, smart, smooth ballplayer. He doesn't commit many errors. It may not be all that visibly noticeable when he misses a grounder that he'd have gathered a few years ago, or that some of the other top shortstops in the league would get to. On any given play, the incredible caliber of his arm alone could easily convince someone he's a top-tier defensive SS regardless of any other data.

There's also this: Correa is a clutch. He steps up and makes big plays in big moments. We certainly saw that in the playoffs. 

 

The Athletic's Eno Sarris wrote this week about the concept of clutchness in baseball. His data-driven analysis is an interesting one, but what I find most striking is the way performances in big moments shape our memories and perceptions. 

As Eno put it in a radio interview, "If you have an emotion tied to a memory, you're going to remember it more." In this light, it's easy to see why momentous plays like Correa's game-ending backhand stab in Houston, or his heady throw home against Toronto – not to mention all those big-time highlights in years past – have an outsized influence on the way we think of him.

 

Emotions and subjectivity have a major impact on the so-called eye test, which is why many observers are prone to overrate Correa's current defensive impact just as they did with Jeter throughout his career.

So what does this all mean? Not a ton in the short term, necessarily. Even if you agree, based on the evidence, that Correa is no longer quite as strong defensively as his Gold Glove nomination would suggest, no one's arguing that Correa is a liability at shortstop, or that he should be moved somewhere else next year. 

Even as his range diminishes, Correa remains a steady and sure-handed infield captain. His leadership and intelligence at a position where smart split-second decision-making is invaluable will help C4's continue to be an asset at shortstop even if his physical tools are beginning to dullen.

But the undeniable data trend does lead you to wonder. What's at the root of this statistical defensive decline? Is he already showing signs of aging at 29? Are the health concerns in his lower body – an ankle that's structurally worrisome, and now a nagging case of plantar fasciitis – taking their permanent toll?

These will be things to keep an eye on moving forward. It is worth noting that Correa was ready to move to third base if he signed in New York, and the nature of his contract with the Twins (salaries declining quickly in the later years) seems to imply that an eventual position switch is expected from all parties. 

Everyone seems to understand that it's a matter of if, not when, Carlos Correa will stop playing shortstop. Even if he wins a Gold Glove this year, a deeper look his declining defensive value – not to mention the physical state of his body – makes clear that the day could come sooner than many anticipate.

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[DJL44]

He has great fundamentals and a strong arm but it would be crazy to think a season where he was dealing with plantar fasciitis all year would be one of his best defensively. That means there is some upside for next year.

I also think finding a 2B who turns the pivot well would improve Correa's numbers. Neither Polanco or Julien is as good as he had when Altuve was his partner.

[saviking]

Correa has been drastically overpaid for his production on the offensive and defensive side of the ball the last 2 years. 

That is just a fact. Let's hope he miraculously makes a BIG jump next year.

I'm not a Correa hater. Just doing the numbers. 

[DJL44]

3 minutes ago, saviking said:

Correa has been drastically overpaid for his production on the offensive and defensive side of the ball the last 2 years. 

That is just a fact. Let's hope he miraculously makes a BIG jump next year.

I'm not a Correa hater. Just doing the numbers. 

Fangraphs has him worth $34.8M last year and he got paid $35.1M. That's not "drastically overpaid".

[Launch Angle]

The fact that he improved his defensive metrics this year vs 2022 while dealing with plantar fasciitis gives me a little hope he'll be able to bounce back to above average defense again. I don't expect him to be elite anymore but I think he can still improve over the last two years. 

[Trov]

27 minutes ago, saviking said:

Correa has been drastically overpaid for his production on the offensive and defensive side of the ball the last 2 years. 

That is just a fact. Let's hope he miraculously makes a BIG jump next year.

I'm not a Correa hater. Just doing the numbers. 

Generally that is what happens with FA is they are normally overpaid for their production.  Really, the question is would we have someone better?  Maybe we could have tried to sign someone else, but I doubt we make playoffs if he is not on the team. 

[terrydactyls]

31 minutes ago, saviking said:

Correa has been drastically overpaid for his production on the offensive and defensive side of the ball the last 2 years. 

That is just a fact. Let's hope he miraculously makes a BIG jump next year.

I'm not a Correa hater. Just doing the numbers. 

I see no "fact" in your post.  Only a statement of your opinion.  His value/worth is a byproduct of how the person paying him perceives his performance.  Personally, I don't think anyone playing major league baseball is "worth" the amount they are paid.  But that's just my opinion.

[Woof Bronzer]

I think Twins fans really WANT Correa to be great given the unprecedented contract.  No one could argue he was having a good year at the plate so fans latched on to his defense as otherworldly.  Nobody wants the guy to be a bust.  

For what it's worth I think Correa is simply on the down slope of his career.  He's not exactly young anymore and he has a lot of innings on his body.  But I still think he'll have a better year next year if he can make some adjustments to his approach at the plate.  And stays healthy.  

[Parfigliano]

Lets see how he grades defensively and his offensive production next year when hopefully not dealing with the plantar fasciitis problem.

[tony&rodney]

Correa makes the plays. We can quibble about his range and he did suffer all season with PF, yet at the end of the day he is a rock at shortstop. The Twins haven't had a shortstop of his caliber since Greg Gagne. 

The contract is a function of his time in the league and demand, similar to Seager and others. I do not consider it at all when watching a player.

A huge part of fielding evaluations are the various metrics used to rate players. These tools have been almost continually refined year over year, which is probably for the better. There is also some differences between the different numbers gathered on a player by separate sites. My thought is that these are all interesting but only useful to a degree. Several decades ago I devised my own systems for the players I coached in an attempt to objectively evaluate them. This works beautifully when one guy can mark every pitch and play according to standards. It doesn't work as well when another person uses their systems or even tries to use your measures. Fielding remains subjective despite the various methods used to rate the players. 

We saw quite a bit of change in two Twins players this past season in reference to defense. Matt Wallner was halting and indecisive on both fly balls and hits coming to him. He has a big arm but his release was slow. By the end of the year Wallner had become much more confidant and covered more ground as an outfielder. He also became much quicker in his transfer to throw the ball. It was almost ridiculous how no player attempted an extra base if there was a chance on balls to hit Wallner. Edouard Julien was intimidated by MLB as a fielder when he arrived and it showed. His defense was .... well, not good. There were calls to get him off the field and worse. By the end of the year Julien was making the plays that should be made and it is likely the Twins can see him as their main second baseman moving forward. The metrics improved dramatically for Julien as well. That said, most would believe that there is still room for improvement. This long paragraph is mostly to ask if anyone knows where to find metrics that break down fielding by the month or weak for the players.?

[Fire Dan Gladden]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Fangraphs has him worth $34.8M last year and he got paid $35.1M. That's not "drastically overpaid".

I do not know how Fangraphs came up with that number, but if you polled 100 knowledgeable people, I would bet 100 would say that Correa's production value did not come close to his salary last year.

2023 OPS+
Correa 94
Gallo 101

Gallo had to be worth $40M, right?
 

[Blyleven2011]

Players get traded and thrive  elsewhere  ...

We trade or sign players and they decline ...

What's wrong with this picture ...

To my eye test nothing but those  that follow data driven statistics  are painting a picture of his decline , if statistics  are measured when a team signs a player then why haven't our FO been savvy enough to stay away from players that are declining  ...

Is it because they are cheaper , I don't know  ...

Correa was good in the field but has to learn not to go after a high inside pitch ... 

Correa is a fine shortstop for now ...

[Woof Bronzer]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Fangraphs has him worth $34.8M last year and he got paid $35.1M. That's not "drastically overpaid".

Fangraphs has him at $9.1M in value.  No idea where you are getting $34.8M.

But those numbers are meaningless.  It has Acuna worth $66m, or about double the most annual salary anyone in the league has ever been paid.  A fantasy.  All the valuations are is WAR x a $/WAR that they come up with.  So the WAR leaderboard is the exact same as the "value" leaderboard.  Correa had 1.1 WAR, good for 107th in the league. He was the 11th highest paid player in the league.  Drastically overpaid is an understatement.  

[wabene]

20 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I do not know how Fangraphs came up with that number, but if you polled 100 knowledgeable people, I would bet 100 would say that Correa's production value did not come close to his salary last year.

2023 OPS+
Correa 94
Gallo 101

Gallo had to be worth $40M, right?
 

I believe he was referring to 2022 and his 138 OPS+. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

2 minutes ago, wabene said:

I believe he was referring to 2022 and his 138 OPS+. 

I re-read the comments.  While not clear, I certainly hope so...

[Dave The Dastardly]

An swap of positions between Correa and Lewis is inevitable. The only question is how soon.

[Riverbrian]

I'm not going to follow the bouncing balls of yearly small sample size defensive stats that are groaning from the weight of routine plays overwhelming the few non-routine plays that actually produce the numbers that we use to form the basis of our defensive opinion.   

Correa is an exceptional defensive SS. I've watched him nearly every day for two years now. He is exceptional.   

[KikiMN]

How much has the new rule keeping Correa off the outfield grass hurt his range?

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

2 hours ago, saviking said:

Correa has been drastically overpaid for his production on the offensive and defensive side of the ball the last 2 years. 

That is just a fact. Let's hope he miraculously makes a BIG jump next year.

I'm not a Correa hater. Just doing the numbers. 

Last year Correa was not overpaid,  he had a 5.5 WAR - if you go with the 10 million per a WAR then you are at 55 million,  this year he had a 1.4 WAR.  In total about 7 war or 70 mil.   That is also ignoring he had foot issues hindering his ability both in the field and at the plate all year.  His performance in the playoffs was exceptional.   We don't need a miraculous jump,  we just need him to get back to normal.  

So no offense but it appears you are a bit of hater 😉

[jmlease1]

3 minutes ago, KikiMN said:

How much has the new rule keeping Correa off the outfield grass hurt his range?

It's definitely an issue, because it means his superior arm doesn't play as well. Correa used to be able to position himself deeper to get to more balls and use his arm to gun them out. The rule change favors quicker/faster players (and hitters, a little).

I do think one thing keeping Correa's defensive reputation high is the lack of errors and that lack of big play creation for the other team via a major gaffe or wild throw. And that certainly matters: even if you're not getting to more balls, not making mistakes (especially in big situations) really does make a difference...but it's probably a bit harder to quantify because you can't presume that every throwing error leads to a big inning by the other team.

I think it's likely his numbers tick up next season if the plantar fasciitis is no longer an issue, but with the rule changes limiting his positioning, it's going to put a ceiling on how much it goes up.

He's still more than solid there defensively, and it's awfully nice to have that level of consistency even if he might not be adding as much high end defensive value any longer.

[Minny505]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I re-read the comments.  While not clear, I certainly hope so...

@DJL44 said last year. Last year is 2022. 

I don't think anyone would argue Correa played up to his contract value in 2023, including Correa himself. His playoff performance is a big part of why he was signed though and he delivered there.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Fangraphs has him at $9.1M in value.  No idea where you are getting $34.8M.

But those numbers are meaningless.  It has Acuna worth $66m, or about double the most annual salary anyone in the league has ever been paid.  A fantasy.  All the valuations are is WAR x a $/WAR that they come up with.  So the WAR leaderboard is the exact same as the "value" leaderboard.  Correa had 1.1 WAR, good for 107th in the league. He was the 11th highest paid player in the league.  Drastically overpaid is an understatement.  

Carlos Correa - Stats - Batting | FanGraphs Baseball

You go down to Value and you look at the line for 2022, not the line for 2023. 2022 is last year, 2023 is THIS year. 2024 is NEXT year. He had a bad season at the plate THIS year but he was worth every penny last year.

The value is based on the average cost of 1 WAR in free agency. Nobody has been paid $66M in a single season but plenty of superstars have had years of dead money at the end of the contract (see Miguel Cabrera). Like many superstars in their prime Acuna isn't able to cash in at his full value because he hasn't reached free agency.

[Karbo]

I wouldn't trade him. He's consistent and a good leader. IMO the Twins wouldn't have won the division without him. He played hurt most of the year and I never heard him complain or use it as an excuse. After the past several years going through SS after SS it sure is nice to have him there.

[GNess]

If the numbers show Correa is not worth what the Twins are paying him by. a wide margin why would any other team want him? Especially since they have access to the same metrics.

My view is Correa is a leader and a winner and you may not be able to see that expressed in the metrics except the one that matters most - the W-L column. (His outstanding performance in the postseason further demonstrates his value.)

Correa is worth what the Twins are paying him.

[IaBeanCounter]

I wonder if the defensive metrics don't fully value his arm.  How many shortstops are the cutoff man for double in the right field corner?  Can't remember the game, but saw the highlight of him taking the throw from the right fielder and throwing a pea to get the runner at the plate.  Julien or Polanco don't make that throw.  The defensive metrics don't take into account the postseason, where Correa had to sprint to get a ball that Polanco didn't field and make an on target throw to get a Toronto runner.  These are the plays that we remember for the eye test.  

Do the defensive metrics take into account his leadership in realizing that Toronto baserunners couldn't hear their coach so they could be picked off ( and were)?  Again this is in the postseason, but we remember for the eye test.

I am glad the Twins have Correa. 

Edit: The right field cutoff was 8/26 vs Texas.

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, IaBeanCounter said:

The defensive metrics don't take into account the postseason, where Correa had to sprint to get a ball that Polanco didn't field and make an on target throw to get a Toronto runner. 

And WPA credits that out to the pitcher.

[terrydactyls]

I am old and I don't give a crap about UZR, RF, DRS, DER, M-O-U-S-E, ETC.  I just enjoy watching a shortstop that smoothly fields a grounder and fires a bullet to the first baseman for which the first baseman barely has to move his glove in order to complete the play.  Correa is that type of player and he's worth the money.  Besides, it ain't my money.

[IaBeanCounter]

I just looked up the old fashioned field stats for the 3 SS for gold glove:

1. Correa 6 errors 450 chances (one error every 75 chances), fielding .987 1st
2. Seager 8 errors 424 chances (one error every 53 chances). fielding .981 2nd
3. Volpe 17 errors 560 chances (one error every 33 chances). fielding .970 8th

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

3 hours ago, Trov said:

…but I doubt we make playoffs if he is not on the team. 

the Twins did win the division by 9.0 games

[Woof Bronzer]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Carlos Correa - Stats - Batting | FanGraphs Baseball

You go down to Value and you look at the line for 2022, not the line for 2023. 2022 is last year, 2023 is THIS year. 2024 is NEXT year. He had a bad season at the plate THIS year but he was worth every penny last year.

The value is based on the average cost of 1 WAR in free agency. Nobody has been paid $66M in a single season but plenty of superstars have had years of dead money at the end of the contract (see Miguel Cabrera). Like many superstars in their prime Acuna isn't able to cash in at his full value because he hasn't reached free agency.

The value calculation is WAR x a coefficient that FanGraphs chooses.  It spits out the same exact order of results as WAR.  The "value" has nothing to do with realistic market values or what teams will pay someone.  Don't know how to break it to you but Acuna (or anyone else) aint getting $66m/year as a free agent.  I get that you are looking for some statistic that proves how great Correa is, but hopefully you know it's not rooted in anything resembling reality or meaning.