What to Make of Carlos Correa's Defense at Shortstop?

[DJL44]

15 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

The value calculation is WAR x a coefficient that FanGraphs chooses.  It spits out the same exact order of results as WAR.  The "value" has nothing to do with realistic market values or what teams will pay someone.  Don't know how to break it to you but Acuna (or anyone else) aint getting $66m/year as a free agent.  I get that you are looking for some statistic that proves how great Correa is, but hopefully you know it's not rooted in anything resembling reality or meaning.  

Got it. You believe all the general managers in baseball are wrong and they're paying too much for free agents.

I guess that's an opinion but you're the one not rooted in reality. Fangraphs is just taking the $$ actually spent (reality) and dividing it by the performance (also reality). Nobody gets $66M a season but plenty of players get $33M a season with the expectation that the last years of the contract will be paying $33M for nothing. When you divvy up the pool of money it ends up at $9M/WAR.

One thing I don't like about how they present the data is "value" is always in context to current market value, not market value in that particular year but that's a nitpick especially when $$/WAR was pretty much the same in 2022 as 2023.

[RickOShea]

4 hours ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

An swap of positions between Correa and Lewis is inevitable. The only question is how soon.

The soon will be defined when Correa loses the ability in his right arm, or when he can no longer walk.

[Woof Bronzer]

12 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Got it. You believe all the general managers in baseball are wrong and they're paying too much for free agents.

I guess that's an opinion but you're the one not rooted in reality. Fangraphs is just taking the $$ actually spent (reality) and dividing it by the performance (also reality). Nobody gets $66M a season but plenty of players get $33M a season with the expectation that the last years of the contract will be paying $33M for nothing. When you divvy up the pool of money it ends up at $9M/WAR.

One thing I don't like about how they present the data is "value" is always in context to current market value, not market value in that particular year but that's a nitpick especially when $$/WAR was pretty much the same in 2022 as 2023.

Jurickson Profar's "value" this year was $-15 mil.  Does this mean he should have paid the club 15 million bucks?  Has this ever happened in the history of the sport?  If not, why, again, do you think this statistic has any particular meaning?  It's simply a WAR multiplier.

Also WAR doesn't represent "reality" or "performance" either...topic for another day...

 

[DJL44]

7 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Jurickson Profar's "value" this year was $-15 mil.  Does this mean he should have paid the club 15 million bucks? 

No, it means the team shouldn't have given him playing time. It's a failure of management to have a player rack up negative value.

[Jocko87]

5 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Lets see how he grades defensively and his offensive production next year when hopefully not dealing with the plantar fasciitis problem.

I think this is the explanation.  What we got this year is a preview of a couple years down the road when he actually loses a step.  Still a darn good shortstop.  Knock on wood that he comes back to full speed next year. 

The arm and the glove are great obviously but what sets him apart is the scouting, positioning and anticipation.  Adjusting for age is easier than adjusting for injury because its consistent.  Those traits should allow him to stay at shortstop for quite a while.  Barring injury, by the time Correa is ready to move off short Royce and Brooks will no longer be options either. 

Interesting mention of just 6 errors, I distinctly remember two odd missed catches down the stretch that were completely out of character.  I went back to the MLB video library and there were 3 catches that looked like a high schooler should have made.  They were August and Sept as the foot and season had to have been grinding on him but he could have very easily had a 3 error season where his mobility was compromised.  Pretty, prettty good.

His down year on defense is as good as most guys best years.  We should not be looking to move him to 3rd anytime soon.

[PatPfund]

Can’t really expect a premium year with plantar fasciitis; in the field or at the plate. Hopefully he feels better next year, and maybe gets some extra rest days. In some ways he’ll never live up to his contract, and in others he already has. I’m happy with what we have, and I’m glad we have two great foundation blocks in Correa and Lopez to build around. (I remember some metric rating his arm as average last year; cracked me up no end.)

[The Mad King]

I don't know how they factor defensive metrics, but I can't look at errors and think it's the end all of stats. Let's say I'm playing SS. I'm 62 and not very quick. I might never make an error unless they hit the ball right at me because I have no range. CC on the other hand, is going to dive for balls I have no business getting to, but he's going to make a few errors because he's getting to stuff most of us can't get to. Plus, there's fielding errors, throwing errors, and mental errors. Maybe they need to split those up in the stats.  In short, CC has better defense than me, despite my idiot little league coach who put me there.

[Bodie]

6 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I do not know how Fangraphs came up with that number, but if you polled 100 knowledgeable people, I would bet 100 would say that Correa's production value did not come close to his salary last year.

2023 OPS+
Correa 94
Gallo 101

Gallo had to be worth $40M, right?
 

ANY stat showing Joey Gallo to be above average (i.e. better than the average, I don't need confirmation that he is a world-class hacker...) is instantly worthless in evaluation...

[Brandon]

7 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I do not know how Fangraphs came up with that number, but if you polled 100 knowledgeable people, I would bet 100 would say that Correa's production value did not come close to his salary last year.

2023 OPS+
Correa 94
Gallo 101

Gallo had to be worth $40M, right?
 

I imagine they included his playoff value too which I'm sure is pretty high with how he performed there.  I'm not arguing your call on offense.  but the only real drop in offense from Correa this year vs past years is his batting average.  His power numbers and walk numbers were close to norms.  I'll also point out his GIDP numbers sure didn't help his value either. 

 

[old nurse]

Nobody has stopped and considered DRS and OAA are counting stats and are based on opportunity.   Houston during Correa’s time there had  one of the highest GB rates.  The Twins have one of the lowest during his time here. That would explain some of the drop off 

[Doctor Evil]

Correa is far from being one of the things that need to be focussed on to make the team better this off-season. Next topic please.

[TFelton]

He passes my eye test.  IF the ball is hit, he is one of 2 I hope it is hit to (MAT).

[saviking]

On 10/20/2023 at 8:27 AM, DJL44 said:

Fangraphs has him worth $34.8M last year and he got paid $35.1M. That's not "drastically overpaid".

Why. Because he's good in the clubhouse. Hope that's worth 15 million because a 227 batting average and pretty good defense would have half the league getting 35 million a year.

[tony&rodney]

25 minutes ago, saviking said:

Why. Because he's good in the clubhouse. Hope that's worth 15 million because a 227 batting average and pretty good defense would have half the league getting 35 million a year.

Why does it sound like you pine for the days of Denny Hocking at shortstop? 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Let’s say Correa was a free agent this offseason. Would people want to sign him going forward for 5/167?

[saviking]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Why does it sound like you pine for the days of Denny Hocking at shortstop? 

Maybe, Lewis or Lee and 36 million to spend on Pitching?

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, saviking said:

Maybe, Lewis or Lee and 36 million to spend on Pitching?

I believe that Falvey already made that decision for us.

[stringer bell]

Defense is just hard to measure. Positioning, arm strength, instincts and "making the right play" should all figure in. We have known since Correa was acquired (the first time) that he is not speedy (below average sprint speed), but that his reach (6'4") and big arm made up for the lack of range. 

Correa makes all the plays and has excelled at turning outs into outs. Probably he doesn't get enough credit for that. Or maybe whoever does the analysis of defense automatically penalizes whoever goes to the Twins. In the last several years, the Twins have added three guys regarded as elite defenders--Andrelton Simmons, Josh Donaldson and Correa--and each has seen their defensive stats suffer (Donaldson's rebounded when he went to NY).

[MGM4706]

With all due respect this is one of the dumbest articles in a long time. Correa is better than anything the Twins have ever had. With only a few exceptions his only errors were on balls that most shortstops don't get too! They would be through for hits. He knocks them down and gets penalized for errors.

[Greglw3]

2023 OPS+
Correa 94
Gallo 101

That comparison shows how wildly un-useful the new wave of metrics, advanced metrics, SABR stats are and a massive failure in lending any instructive insights into the game of baseball. Correa was 10,000 times the player Gallo was. Gallo’s season had to be one of the worst of all time.

If one has followed baseball for many years and seen many average, good and great players the eye test is all you need. 

I’ll give an example from basketball. Luckily basketball hasn’t been afflicted with an avalanche of unscientific new stats like baseball but what f somebody told you that someone somewhere (like who’s responsible for OAA, Zone ratings and all these defensive stats and offensive stats that skew toward power hitters? Who created it? Who voted on all these stats saying, yes, these are more valuable than Terry Francona, Dick Bremer, Alex Rodriguez, Justin Morneau and Roy Smalley’s eye tests and scores of fans who have seen the 72-74 Oakland A’s play and the 75-76 Reds , the 35-5 Tigers, both generations of Orioles teams with stifling pitching. Seen Omar Vizquel, Ozzie Smith, Cal Ripken, Jason Bartlett, Greg Gagne, Carlos Correa, Freddie Patek, U.L Washington, Dave Concepcion and Bert Campaneris).

Like everything else in life, experience matters. How could anybody be fooled by neophyte, gravely flawed statistics when the answer is right in front of their eyes.

Back to my basketball analogy. I feel like people telling me that Outs above average and these other new defensive metrics that try to measure range and errors all in one, i.e. the unmeasurable - that Gio Urshela and Carlos Correa last year were below average because of OAA would be like (I lived in Chicago for 21 years) telling me that Michael Jordan was overrated. That his assists above average was never near the top of the league and that he was below average on defense because his field goals allowed by other team while he was on the floor and his 3 pt field goals allowed was below average.

Don’t use the eye test!

None other than Carlos Correa offered just one argument that demolishes OAA. He said, I’m playing for a primarily Flyball pitching staff. How in the world could he lead the league playing on a flyable pitching staff? More likely a poor fielder who plays behind a roundball pitching staff would lead the league in OAA.

I read a  description of how they get OAA and it was so convoluted and full of flaws that it was almost laughable.

I mentioned how Bill James, in retrospect, wrote an article in late 2021 about another new stat that is very flawed. James gave a very logical presentation and concluded that WAR should be renamed WAG for Wild Ass Guess. I mentioned that to someone on Twitter and they just attacked James as a bitter old fart or something like that. But James is right.

Well, I and every other Bulls and basketball fan used the eye test to judge Jordan. And for Scottie Pippin. Also for players like Magic Johnson,  I used the eye test for Wilt Chamberlain, Bill Russell and Oscar Robertson. Lebron. Bird. All eye tests. Even in basketball, the most basic, unchallenged stat recently told basketball fans a little fib. The secret is Kareem Abdul Jabbar played when there was no 3 point rule. So, if you take away that extra point from Lebron, he’s likely way behind Kareem in baskets made. 

Correa made only 6 errors at SS this year. That’s historically low. The lowest Hall of Fame SS Ozzie Smith ever had in a season where he played 1144 or more innings is 8. I’ve always considered Ozzie Smith to be the best defensive SS of my lifetime. and he never matched Correa’s excellence at the only defensive stat that is a true empirical measurement of an observable event.

 

Bottom line is Carlos Correa had a great defensive season. As far as I recall,I watched every game this year and my eye test says Correa is the best in baseball. One man’s opinion to mix in with all the others.

 

[Greglw3]

On 10/21/2023 at 12:36 AM, TFelton said:

He passes my eye test.  IF the ball is hit, he is one of 2 I hope it is hit to (MAT).

Amen, brother! And I watched Terry Felton pitch extensively at Toledo. He had a smoking fastball. I thought he was gonna be good in MLB.

[stringer bell]

Regarding errors, there were probably at least 6-10 plays where Correa could have/should have made a play and wasn't charged with an error. Even adding in those plays as errors, he still was very competent in turning outs into outs. 

[DJL44]

On 10/21/2023 at 11:21 AM, saviking said:

Why. Because he's good in the clubhouse. Hope that's worth 15 million because a 227 batting average and pretty good defense would have half the league getting 35 million a year.

Why are so many posters in this thread having such a hard time figuring out what year this is? Is it legal weed?