Let The Kid Play

[Cody Pirkl]

Misfortune has hit the playoff-bound Twins again, as Carlos Correa has hit the IL, and Royce Lewis suffered a hamstring injury in Tuesday’s contest. If either is unavailable for the playoffs, the Twins need to prepare for drastic measures.

Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins had lofty goals of establishing a sea of roster depth heading into 2023 and were successful in doing so. They’ve held onto struggling veterans all season, sometimes at the expense of younger, better players to ensure they avoid a repeat of the 2022 collapse. The marathon is ending, and as they finish the home stretch of the regular season and approach the postseason, it’s time for a change in philosophy.

Along with the misfortune of the Twins potentially losing their starting shortstop and third baseman, comes a bit of good fortune in regard to who can qualify for a postseason roster. Any player in the organization can be deemed eligible for postseason play as long as they were in the organization as of September 1 and are replacing an injured player. This includes legitimate prospects who are big parts of the Twins' future, such as Brooks Lee.

One could argue that Brooks Lee has had something of a down season relative to his debut in 2022. That does include an .841 OPS in Double-A, even if his .708 OPS with St. Paul leaves much to be desired. So why should Lee get the call when it appears he has work left to do with the Saints?

If the Twins are without Carlos Correa for the playoffs, very much still an if at this point, this likely pushes Kyle Farmer into a full-time role at shortstop. While Farmer has certainly been a solid contributor to the Twins this season, he’s far from a player you want starting every day, especially in the postseason.

Farmer’s .708 OPS is a slight improvement on his 2022 numbers, but there are several things to consider before handing him the keys to a starting job when it matters most. He’s always been a lefty masher, and while that wasn’t quite true to the same degree this year, he was still nearly 20% above league average against southpaws. He’s a valuable piece to be able to pull off the bench in a big spot, especially now that Jordan Luplow is likely out of the picture.

Farmer has also posted a .687 OPS against righties this season, a number that suggests tough times ahead when the Twins are facing an opposing team’s best pitchers, many of which will be right-handed. There are going to be games where Christian Vázquez and Kyle Farmer are paired together at the bottom of the order, likely making the trip through the bottom of the lineup a cakewalk for opposing pitchers.

So why should we expect Brooks Lee to do any better?

For as much as it looks like Lee has to prove in the minor leagues, nearly all of this has to do with hitting left-handed pitching. Lee has posted a .607 OPS against left-handed pitchers, and an .866 against righties. It sets up a perfect situation where he could be lifted for Farmer later in games should a big spot arise with a left-handed reliever coming in. It seems like a tall task, but if anyone is up to it, why wouldn’t it be top prospect Brooks Lee?

For anyone thinking “The Twins would never do this”, they found themselves in a similar situation in 2020 when Josh Donaldson and Byron Buxton weren’t able to play in the three-game playoff. Alex Kirilloff made his MLB debut in the postseason having not played above Double-A, and not having played organized ball at all that year due to the pandemic shutdown. Desperate times call for desperate measures, and in this case, the Twins still have a week plus to call Lee up and get his feet wet in an MLB atmosphere.

It may seem like a panic response, but Kyle Farmer as the Twins potential everyday postseason shortstop just isn’t a good scenario. Likely to contribute nothing offensively against what will likely be right-handed heavy pitching staffs, the downside is as low as it gets, and the upside is extremely limited. That’s not to say Brooks Lee’s floor is any higher, but at least he has the potential of a top prospect and a track record of mashing southpaws. The potential for him to meaningfully impact a postseason contest should outweigh what will likely be a zero offensively paired with merely capable defense from Kyle Farmer.

Hopefully, it’s all a non-factor, and Carlos Correa is ready to return come October. It doesn’t hurt to plan for a worst-case scenario though. Brooks Lee is a legitimate piece of the Twins future, and even if he comes up for this stretch and begins next season back in the minors for a bit, it’s hard to imagine the experience hurting him.

The Twins have spent much of the season conceding to veterans and their experience. Now that the playoffs near, the possibility of Brooks Lee’s talent shining and impacting a postseason game should outweigh the veteran status and perceived “safety” of someone like Kyle Farmer. Do you agree?

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[Ex-Iowegian]

Hardly. 
There is an enormous difference between mlb pitching and AAA arms. Only magnified in the playoffs.
Go with the known commodity, even if it’s not ideal.

[TopGunn#22]

Yet...Cody pointed out the Alex Kirilloff call up.  It's not an outlandish scenario.  I would say that in athletic endeavors, the cream always rises to the top.  Brooks Lee, to me, is as creamy as Royce Lewis and Walker Jenkins.  I think Lee has an excellent chance to break camp with the Twins next season.  Getting a look at him NOW, once the division has been clinched (and also that St. Paul's season is done) would be a move I could get on board with.  Look, Lewis and Correa aren't going to play for the rest of the regular season.  Add him to the roster Monday in place of Stevenson or Luplow and see what he does.  

[DJL44]

We're at least one additional infield injury away from thinking about Brooks Lee.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

Sometimes it seems these kids come up and perform well as it takes time for pitchers to adjust to them.  Maybe we could use that to get some value out of him in this first playoff series.  That said, I'd be OK with them not bringing him up either.  He will be on the team next year IMO.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I feel you are underestimating Kyle Farmer and overestimating a good young player with no major league experience. I must respectfully disagree with bring Lee up to play now and later in the most important Twins' playoff games in 22 years. For me, Farmer's experience and better than adequate skills trump Lee's youth and promise.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

4 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Sometimes it seems these kids come up and perform well as it takes time for pitchers to adjust to them.  Maybe we could use that to get some value out of him in this first playoff series.  That said, I'd be OK with them not bringing him up either.  He will be on the team next year IMO.

And more often it takes young kids time to adjust to the big show. None is bigger than the playoffs.

[Cave Bear]

"especially now that Jordan Luplow is likely out of the picture"?  Am I missing something? What is up with Luplow?

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I think Brooks Lee is going to become an important player for the Twins. Just because the team has had some success with young players doesn’t mean that all young players are ready to play in the major leagues.  They all need to be evaluated separately.  I believe there is some question as to whether he should have more seasoning in the minors at the beginning of next year and not brought up until sometime later in the season (when there are just “normal” MLB games).  If that is true, then he probably has no business being on the playoff roster this season.  

He hit some balls hard at AAA against AAA pitchers isn’t really much of a qualifier.  If it was, there would be about 30 position players on each team in the majors.  If the comparison is with a veteran who is as good as Farmer, then it is no contest.  I’ll take the veteran who is used to playing all over the field at a moment’s notice every time in a playoff environment. .  

[USAFChief]

No.

[chinmusic]

16 minutes ago, Cave Bear said:

"especially now that Jordan Luplow is likely out of the picture"?  Am I missing something? What is up with Luplow?

I'm guessing this article was in the can, and submitted before Luplow was recalled.

[Eris]

Another factor is that Brooks Lee does not need to be put on the 40 man roster this year.  That is one less player that can be protected from the rule 5 draft. 

[weitz41]

No TY.

One or both will be back for the playoffs. If the playoffs started the day after either players injury, I'd bet both would have been in the lineup that day. Maybe not at 100% but they'd be starting. Although bring Lee up for the last few series seems like a good idea.

[Karbo]

Wouldn't that cost a year of service time?

[davidborton]

1 hour ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I feel you are underestimating Kyle Farmer and  a good young player with no major league experience.

I second your above motion.

Cody said:
 

Quote

"...paired with merely capable defense from Kyle Farmer.

Farmer at SS this year. /.988. Career at SS/.985
Lee at SS this year. /.959. Career at SS/.956

[Jocko87]

And by Brooke Lee I assume you meant Austin Martin.

[stringer bell]

23 minutes ago, Karbo said:

Wouldn't that cost a year of service time?

Service time is measured in days. Adding Lee for the last eight days would only add eight days service time, probably not a big deal. A bigger deal would be adding him to the 40-man, both in the short term and long term.

[mnfireman]

Kirilloff was on the 40 man roster, Lee is not. Can't/won't play until he is.

[JD-TWINS]

Didn’t read any other responses, so this may be redundant?

Can’t say Lee has a .608 OPS v. LH pitching & then later say he mashes SOUTHPAWS. Southpaws are LH pitchers. A mistake, no big deal. He hits RH pitching better than Farmer. Get it.

Farmer was earmarked to be our starting SS in ‘23 until Lewis/Lee or another would be ready to take over in ‘24 sometime. Farmer has played well……..a rational mind doesn’t go away from experience and a solid capability to “see how things work out” with a kid that was in AA until 5 weeks ago.

I believe Lee will be a long time starter and big time performer for the Twins in the future, but making line-up/roster changes with 7 days left in the season ………particularly with a clubhouse “glue guy” like Farmer doesn’t make good sense.

Should/could Lee be on September roster instead of Stevenson - YES…..would love to see him get some play this coming week with CC & Lewis down! Do not think there will be room for him on October roster regardless of others health.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Where is Lee going to play when he is called up next year?

[Linus]

8 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Where is Lee going to play when he is called up next year?

I bet it will be third base with Royce playing second or CF. 

[RpR]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

No.

OK

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

23 minutes ago, Linus said:

I bet it will be third base with Royce playing second or CF. 

Probably. But that then pushes Polanco, Martin and Julien out of the infield, not to mention Gordon and guys like that (I personally don’t feel Julien should be at second anyway). 

Just trying to think deeper about this, and get a head start on all the offseason articles. 🙂

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Lee isn't on the 40 man roster, correct?

Doesn't that make him ineligible for the playoff roster?  Didn't he need to be on the 40-man by August 31st?

I believe the only players not on the 40-man roster on August 31st that are eligible are those returning from injury...

[Squirrel]

Lee isn’t on the 40-man and is ineligible for the playoffs at this point. Creating 40-man issues, finding playing time, for a cup of coffee, when the team should be focussing on the playoffs, I’m just not sure it’s the right move to make. I was pushing to get Martin up earlier, but that will also have to wait until next year. I’m hoping that when the off-season comes, both Martin and Lewis will be doing some outfield work.

[Linus]

9 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Probably. But that then pushes Polanco, Martin and Julien out of the infield, not to mention Gordon and guys like that (I personally don’t feel Julien should be at second anyway). 

Just trying to think deeper about this, and get a head start on all the offseason articles. 🙂

I think there is a decent chance Lewis is your CF next year. Problem solved. Julien dh and I’m not worried about Martin or Gordon. They can fit in wherever. Build your lineup by putting yours studs at their best defensive positions and fill in the rest. 

[Nine of twelve]

He's always there in case of emergency. But it would have to be that for him to play in the majors in 2023. And even then it's probably not worth doing.

[stringer bell]

44 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Lee isn't on the 40 man roster, correct?

Doesn't that make him ineligible for the playoff roster?  Didn't he need to be on the 40-man by August 31st?

I believe the only players not on the 40-man roster on August 31st that are eligible are those returning from injury...

Yes, but no. He was in the organization and the team would have to petition to add him. It can be done, especially since he likely would be replacing an injured player (Correa or Lewis). 
 

If either Vázquez or Jeffers suffered an injury between now and round one, the Twins would have to petition to add a catcher—same scenario. 
 

Edit to add, that is my understanding of the rule. 

[mrtwinsfan]

42 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

Lee isn’t on the 40-man and is ineligible for the playoffs at this point. Creating 40-man issues, finding playing time, for a cup of coffee, when the team should be focussing on the playoffs, I’m just not sure it’s the right move to make. I was pushing to get Martin up earlier, but that will also have to wait until next year. I’m hoping that when the off-season comes, both Martin and Lewis will be doing some outfield work.

My Grama loved em both,    Martin and Lewis

[Fatbat]

I remember that time when Arozerena made a huge playoff splash with the Rays. Could Lee do that? Sure. Its not likely that our FO would do such a thing tho. The fan base would love to see it but it may not be the best business decision. Now if the infield takes another injury hit with say Julien or Polanco then it could definitely be an option.