Ranking the Twins’ Last Three Second-Half Collapses

There is something uniquely frustrating about watching a baseball season slip away. For the Minnesota Twins, that frustration has become a familiar feeling. Over the last three seasons, the club has managed to turn promising or at least competitive first halves into increasingly disappointing finishes. 

The circumstances have been different each year, but the result has been remarkably similar: the Twins entered the second half with some level of hope and eventually found themselves watching the postseason from home.

The 2024 collapse was fueled by a front office that stood pat. The 2025 collapse was accelerated by a front office that did the exact opposite. And in 2026, Minnesota tried to buy its way out of trouble, only to discover that being on the fringes of a terrible American League does not necessarily mean a team is truly a contender.

So which collapse was the worst? Here is how the last three rank.

3. 2025 Twins

First half: 47-49 (.490), Second half: 23-43 (.348)

The 2025 Twins deserve the benefit of one important piece of context. By the time the season reached the trade deadline, Minnesota's direction had changed dramatically.

The front office went from trying to compete to conducting one of the largest firesales in recent MLB history. The Twins ultimately traded 10 Major League players in a matter of days, including Carlos Correa, Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Willi Castro, Harrison Bader, Ty France, Louis Varland, Brock Stewart, Danny Coulombe and Chris Paddack. That makes this collapse the easiest one to explain.

Minnesota was already a .500 team at the break, so there was plenty to criticize about the season. But once the organization decided it was no longer interested in winning in 2025, expecting the club to suddenly put together a strong second half was unrealistic.

The Twins went 23-43 after the break, finishing 18 games behind the Cleveland Guardians in the AL Central and 17 games out of the Wild Card. That is ugly. But it was also the inevitable result of the organization's decision-making. The 2025 season was less a collapse than it was a controlled demolition.

2. 2024 Twins

First half: 54-42 (.563), Second half: 28-38 (.424)

This one still hurts. The 2024 Twins had legitimate reasons to believe they could make another postseason run. They were coming off a 2023 playoff appearance, had a strong first half and appeared to have a roster capable of competing in the American League Central.

Then came the trade deadline. Minnesota largely stood still. The Twins' lone addition was reliever Trevor Richards from Toronto. They did not add the starting pitcher many believed they needed, and they did not make the type of aggressive move that could have strengthened a team already dealing with injuries and roster weaknesses.

The organization defended its decision. The clubhouse, however, was less enthusiastic about the lack of activity with some players being “disheartened.” That made the subsequent collapse even more frustrating.

Minnesota went 54-42 before the All-Star break, winning 56.3% of its games. Afterward, the club went 28-38, winning only 42.4% of its games. The Twins stumbled all the way to the finish line, losing nine of their final 11 games. They finished 10.5 games behind the Guardians and four games out of the final Wild Card spot.

This was a team that had postseason expectations and needed help. Instead, the organization essentially bet that what it already had would be enough. It wasn't.

The 2024 collapse earns second place because the opportunity was there. Minnesota had a competitive team, had just demonstrated it could win in October and was in position to make the roster better. The decision to do nothing meaningful at the deadline became much harder to defend once the season disappeared.

1. 2026 Twins

First half: 48-49 (.495), Second half: 21-28 (.429)

This year's collapse ranks first because the Twins actually tried to prevent it. That makes it more frustrating. Minnesota entered the 2026 deadline sitting near the edge of the American League playoff race. Rather than selling, the front office bought. The Twins added Dean Kremer, A.J. Minter and Jeff Hoffman, while also choosing to keep impending free agents such as Ryan Jeffers and Josh Bell.

The strategy made sense on paper. There was a pathway to October. The problem may have been that the American League was so mediocre that the Twins mistook proximity for contention.

Minnesota was only 48-49 at the All-Star break, hardly the record of a dominant playoff club. Still, a weak league created an opportunity, and the Twins decided to take it. Since then, they have gone 21-28. That is a .429 winning percentage—hardly the kind of second-half surge necessary for a team trying to climb into the postseason.

Entering Thursday, Minnesota sits 6.5 games out of first place in the AL Central and 4.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot. That's why 2026 takes the top spot. The Twins spent assets to make this team better. They kept players rather than cashing them in. They reinforced the bullpen and rotation. They decided that this was a season worth chasing. And yet, the results have barely changed.

The Verdict

These three collapses tell three very different stories. In 2024, the Twins failed to act when they had a legitimate chance. In 2025, they acted decisively, but they acted by dismantling the roster. In 2026, they acted like contenders and received results that looked more like those of a team that should have sold.

The 2025 collapse was the worst statistically, but there was at least an explanation for it. The front office made a conscious decision to prioritize the future over the present. The 2024 collapse may have been the most painful because the Twins were close enough to make a difference but chose not to push their chips into the middle. The 2026 collapse is the most concerning because the organization did push its chips forward.

Minnesota believed this team had enough to compete. Now, with the postseason slipping further away by the day, the Twins have to determine whether they misread the roster, misread the American League or simply underestimated how difficult it would be to turn a fringe contender into an actual playoff team.

How would you rank the last three collapses? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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