The Twins Were Right to Gamble on Julien

[Ted Schwerzler]

When the Minnesota Twins contemplated acquiring pitching this offseason, they knew that grabbing a solid arm was going to require giving up a key piece. That wound up being starting second baseman Luis Arraez. Edouard Julien waiting in the wings made that easier to manage.

 

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins sent Edouard Julien to the Arizona Fall League in 2022 with hopes of testing him against heightened competition. He responded by batting .400/.563/.686 with five home runs. Putting up a strong showing to start the season for Triple-A St. Paul, Julien earned his way to Minnesota when Jorge Polanco went down with an injury.

After continuing to swing a hot bat, and getting on base at an exceptional clip, there was no way Minnesota was going to send their rookie back down. Having taken over the starting second baseman position that was once held down by Luis Arraez, the Twins were faced with plenty of similarities between the two players.

It was never a question as to whether Arraez had talent. You’d never be able to net a top-tier starting pitcher like Pablo Lopez for his services if he wasn’t. The knock on Arraez was always his defense, and a lack of durability that sapped his availability. Over the past two seasons, Rocco Baldelli watched Arraez bow out as the year went on due to his balky knees. That may have also been what limited his effectiveness defensively.

When promoted to the majors, it was obvious that Julien was a butcher with the glove, and could make a meal out of even the most routine ground ball. Similar to the guy he replaced, the bat was more than capable of playing, but the glove left so much to be desired. Fast forward a few months and we’re seeing development take place right before our eyes.

Coming into the year it was evident the goal for Minnesota was going to be an ability to pitch and field. With Lopez acquired, and Sonny Gray returning, the depth on the mound represented one of the better pitching staffs across all of baseball. Being able to successfully field behind them, the front office envisioned a roster that wouldn’t need to put up gaudy run totals to win on a nightly basis.

Had Julien continued to struggle to make defensive adjustments, he may have found his roster spot in jeopardy. While the Twins are certainly encouraged by his production, and needed every bit of it while the lineup slumped through much of the year, failing to be playable defensively wasn’t an option. Now with Polanco back and options available to them, Julien has still commanded starts.

It’s not as though Julien wasn’t working on his craft while on the farm or with the Saints. However, as he has settled in to the surface at Target Field and continued to work with the Minnesota coaching staff, he has gotten significantly better as the season went on. The Twins never saw that take place with Arraez, and unfortunately his body didn’t position him with an opportunity for consistent health either.

The hope would be that Julien can continue to make offensive adjustments for the Twins as he sees pitchers more throughout his career. Defensive development will need to continue as well, but the early returns should be encouraging for everyone involved. For a player that had a questionable ability to maintain a defensive spot, to now being the best version we have seen, the tireless work can’t be overlooked.

I don’t think we’ll see Julien trending toward a Gold Glove award any time soon, but this revelation may be the next best thing.

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[Doctor Wu]

Thanks for that article. I was still under the impression that, as you wrote, Julien's "glove left so much to be desired." I sure hope this "turnaround" is for real. His hitting skills are definitely welcome on a team that needs more players that can put the ball in play. 

[Trov]

I am glad to see him working on the defense, and I feel the eye test matches what the numbers are showing too.  He is still young and clearly is willing to put in the work needed.  He needs to make adjustments at the plate to get his power back.  He is taking still a good amount of walks, but his extra base hits are down a bit.  From what I have seen is teams are trying to pitch around him much more, but he seems to missing the pitches he needs to crush. Still high on him overall, but he needs to figure it out by playoffs to help us there. 

[Linus]

He has improved in the field but let’s be honest. He had nowhere to go but up. I like Julien as a player but I think the hype is premature. Let’s see where we are at after the league sees him for a bit. I would pull another Arreaz deal and trade him for a young starter. 

[tony&rodney]

Sometimes players arrive to the major leagues with rough skills in the field. Those who look awkward while fielding receive more criticism than a player who looks smooth. Julien is a guy who looks worse than the results. No doubt there is still significant room for improvement, but Julien makes most of the plays. 

Wallner has the same issues, rough and looking awkward. He too has been better than he looks. 

Both can and will improve as fielders but with outstanding feel for the strike zone both Julien and Wallner will make their marks with a bat in their hands.

[tony&rodney]

4 minutes ago, Linus said:

He has improved in the field but let’s be honest. He had nowhere to go but up. I like Julien as a player but I think the hype is premature. Let’s see where we are at after the league sees him for a bit. I would pull another Arreaz deal and trade him for a young starter. 

Will another team place a high value on Julien's skills in order to bring back a starter like Pablo Lopez? Are you willing to see a trade of one of Wallner, Kirilloff, Lewis, or Lee to bring back a good starting pitcher?

[insagt1]

He has been a very nice story this season. Hard worker, earning his spot. Over the past few weeks, his bat has cooled off a lot, so hopefully he can get some of his swagger back down the stretch.

(9-43 .209 over last 15 games with 22 k's...come on mon ami...frappe la balle!!!!)

[tony&rodney]

Julien was a solid insurance for Arraez to some degree. It is also worth remembering that the Twins felt that their infield would be Kirilloff, Polanco, Miranda, and Correa with Farmer, Solano, and Gordon as reserves. Castro was added for depth as well and the Twins expected Lewis back too. The depth allowed the Twins to trade Arraez and the emergence of Julien certainly helped the team.

[Doctor Gast]

IMO it was sure bet to bet on Julien. He has the compacity to become a very good lead off player along w/ Martin. My knock is when they were experimenting w/ Julien (1B, 2B,OF) that instead of stretching him 2B, they should have kept him at 1B, where he'd become much more accomplished & much more impactful. Even when Polanco was down we still had Farmer, Castro, and Solanco to man 2B ; all much better than Julien. Julien could have came up sooner as a 1B when Kiriloff was down and have more playing time now & the rest of the year. 

In the near future we have Lewis, Lee, and Martin with Polanco, Castro, Farmer, maybe Solano that are available & more capable there than Julien will ever be. While at 1B we have Kiriloff that can play OF. That show me the lack of vision this FO has for Julien the last couple of years.

 

[jrod23]

I was really high on Spencer Steer and wished we would've held onto him and dealt Julien with Encarnacion-Strand to the Reds for Mahle.  Steer and Julien have similar, but not exact, numbers across the board.  Both stick out on a few stats over the other, but pretty close.  Julien actually shows to be the better defender as well, even though he's not great.  His fielding percentage is actually pretty good.  Either way, glad we got him.

...Only part that bothers me is he didn't know who Corey Koskie is.

[Linus]

16 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Will another team place a high value on Julien's skills in order to bring back a starter like Pablo Lopez? Are you willing to see a trade of one of Wallner, Kirilloff, Lewis, or Lee to bring back a good starting pitcher?

Good question. Not getting a López level pitcher for him. I think his value would be viewed very differently by different teams. I would not trade Lewis or Lee and probably not Kiriloff either. Wallner for sure with the right return. 

[Ghost of Kirby Puckett]

21 minutes ago, Linus said:

He has improved in the field but let’s be honest. He had nowhere to go but up. I like Julien as a player but I think the hype is premature. Let’s see where we are at after the league sees him for a bit. I would pull another Arreaz deal and trade him for a young starter. 

I don't understand this, at all. The hype? He has hit everywhere, literally his entire existence on earth. I don't know what guys like you and Twinstalker need to see, or if you're really seeing it at all. The guy rakes everywhere. He has significantly improved in the field from what I saw several years ago,  to today. It's obvious even to an untrained eye,  you do not need advanced metrics to spell it out for you. 

The only thing I agree with you on is if the Lee train is coming and the Twins are unwilling to move Royce to center, they'll have a log jam at 2b, 3b, 1b and DH. If Julien could net another Lopez type arm, I'd move him. But it'd have to be a really good arm. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

1 hour ago, Doctor Wu said:

Thanks for that article. I was still under the impression that, as you wrote, Julien's "glove left so much to be desired." I sure hope this "turnaround" is for real. His hitting skills are definitely welcome on a team that needs more players that can put the ball in play. 

And take walks. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

12 minutes ago, jrod23 said:

I was really high on Spencer Steer and wished we would've held onto him and dealt Julien with Encarnacion-Strand to the Reds for Mahle.  Steer and Julien have similar, but not exact, numbers across the board.  Both stick out on a few stats over the other, but pretty close.  Julien actually shows to be the better defender as well, even though he's not great.  His fielding percentage is actually pretty good.  Either way, glad we got him.

...Only part that bothers me is he didn't know who Corey Koskie is.

As long as we are wishing, I wish we had never traded these guys for Mahle.

[ToddlerHarmon]

12 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

IMO it was sure bet to bet on Julien. He has the compacity to become a very good lead off player along w/ Martin. My knock is when they were experimenting w/ Julien (1B, 2B,OF) that instead of stretching him 2B, they should have kept him at 1B, where he'd become much more accomplished & much more impactful. Even when Polanco was down we still had Farmer, Castro, and Solanco to man 2B ; all much better than Julien. Julien could have came up sooner as a 1B when Kiriloff was down and have more playing time now & the rest of the year. 

In the near future we have Lewis, Lee, and Martin with Polanco, Castro, Farmer, maybe Solano that are available & more capable there than Julien will ever be. While at 1B we have Kiriloff that can play OF. That show me the lack of vision this FO has for Julien the last couple of years.

 

I have to disagree here. Julien passing at 2B is worth more than him being great defensively at 1B (which is no guarantee), and of the options you mention, Farmer and Solano are not here for the long term, Lewis and Castro are needed elsewhere around the diamond (especially if Buxton remains injured), Lee and Martin are unknowns at MLB, and while Polanco is again showing he could be worth his contract options, he is often injured and dropping in defensive ability.

For 2023, 2028, and everything in between, having Julien playing 2B is the right goal.

[Karbo]

The league has adjusted to him and now its up to him to adjust. I think he profiles better at 1B or OF defensively. Now he needs to work on stealing a few bases, like he did in the minors.

[TopGunn#22]

Julien has more than delivered and he was the primary reason the Twins traded Arraez to Miami for Lopez.  Julien will be a fixture at the top of the Twins order for years.  Even though his defense has improved, Brooks Lee will be knocking on the door soon and Lee will command a spot at either 2B or 3B.  Julien would be smart to get some work in at 1B and LF to enhance his value and versatility. 

The problem the Twins have right now as their youth movement rolls forward is who becomes the CF??  They simply can't count on Buxton for anything going forward so a plan has to be made for CF.  If Buxton gives them ANYTHING it will be a bonus.  And to me, the CF question comes down to two options:  Trading for someone who steps right in and becomes the full time CF. Who is player and what would the trade cost amount to?  There are also two "In-House" options for CF.  Royce Lewis and Austin Martin.  Lewis is a stud and will be the star they build around going forward.  He could play 3B, 2B or CF but with Brooks Lee on the way, Julien needing AB's and Polanco probably remaining, CF makes the most sense for Lewis.  I do not believe he is any more injury prone in CF than he would be in the infield.  

I wish we hadn't traded Steer and CES for Mahle but we did.  If we hadn't, we'd have an even bigger log jam of young talent to sort through.  I don't see a future for Miranda or Larnach with the Twins, so I see some potential trades involving them this off season.  

[P Meyer]

He has been great so far which is all you can ask. I would hesitate to trade any of these young players until we have seen which of them can be successful over longer stretches of time. Let's enjoy some roster depth over the next year, and then see where moves can be made. 

[RpR]

47 minutes ago, Karbo said:

The league has adjusted to him and now its up to him to adjust. I think he profiles better at 1B or OF defensively. Now he needs to work on stealing a few bases, like he did in the minors.

You are correct, other teams now know his batting style, but his fielding is still a Keyston Cops routine.

It does not matter if he makes the play, eventually , the extra time it takes him to throw to first, is all some batters need to beat the throw.

His throws to first need a large First Baseman to stop them from being a wild throw.

In the Post-Season, i hope he is a DH, or replaced during the game when fielding skill counts.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

All I keep thinking of is the Kyle Schwarber experiment in left field in the 2015 postseason. The baseball old timers said that the ball would find him, and it did.

So let’s assume that Polanco will be our playoff second baseman and be happy for that. Julien is definitely worth carrying as a pinch hitter or maybe even DH depending on matchup and if he can make adjustments. 

[Nashvilletwin]

56 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

As long as we are wishing, I wish we had never traded these guys for Mahle.

Yep, the reason we had to trade Arraez for Lopez was because of the disaster trade for Mahle.  Mahle was supposed to be Lopez. If that had been the case, we could have had our cake and eaten too  - but that’s water under the bridge.

If we really think about it, the backlog in the infield going forward is caused by Correa.  Would we resign Correa today for his current deal knowing what we now have in Lewis, Lee, Julien and Kiriloff? I’m not so sure.  Those Correa $s are worth a ton of pitching.

Julien has hit everywhere - he will continue to do so. He needs to keep getting ABs, especially against lefties.  His fielding is fine and getting better. He is not an outfielder though.  So, he either ends up at 1B and Kiriloff goes to LF or he ends up at 2B and Lewis goes to LF. I favor the latter with Wallner in RF, Martin/Buxton/Gordon/? in CF.

Just don’t trade him yet - his value is growing quickly.

[MGM4706]

Ah, please stop saying his fielding has improved. Are you watching games? Last night Correa had to save him again on a double play because he got his feet tangled up and got the ball out of his glove late. Correa saved it with a rifle throw. He is not improving. Plus now he has had three 3 strike-out games out of the last 4. Teams may be on to him. Maybe another year in St. Paul next year would help.

[terrydactyls]

2 minutes ago, MGM4706 said:

Ah, please stop saying his fielding has improved. Are you watching games? Last night Correa had to save him again on a double play because he got his feet tangled up and got the ball out of his glove late. Correa saved it with a rifle throw. He is not improving. Plus now he has had three 3 strike-out games out of the last 4. Teams may be on to him. Maybe another year in St. Paul next year would help.

Three bad games out of four?  Big deal.  Just keep in mind that a .300 hitter fails 7 times in every 10 at bats.

[terrydactyls]

26 minutes ago, RpR said:

You are correct, other teams now know his batting style, but his fielding is still a Keyston Cops routine.

It does not matter if he makes the play, eventually , the extra time it takes him to throw to first, is all some batters need to beat the throw.

His throws to first need a large First Baseman to stop them from being a wild throw.

In the Post-Season, i hope he is a DH, or replaced during the game when fielding skill counts.

Ah!  Chicken Little speaks.  The sky is falling!  The sky is falling!

[Parfigliano]

I wish they would gamble a little more on him and stop PHing for him when a lefty reliever comes in early in games.

[Blyleven2011]

Youth movement is definitely here  ...

Julien has definitely looked better on defense now than at the beginning  ...

Wallner Also looks better defensively this year than last year  ...

Just like all players you have to make adjustments to stay in the show ...

Youth movement is here , let the good times roll ...

[RpR]

7 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Ah!  Chicken Little speaks.  The sky is falling!  The sky is falling!

Only to you my friend.😇

[SteveLV]

Of all the Twins, Julien has had the worst luck with balls called strikes by Umps.  I do not know how to check that statistically, but that is what I have seen in watching many games this year.  He has a discerning eye at the plate, sometimes better than the Umps themselves.....

[jmlease1]

Big fan of Julien: he's a disciplined hitter, and I love how he doesn't chase. he's going to strike out, but he's also going to do a lot of damage as well. He could easily put up similar OPS numbers to Arraez, but he's going to get there in different ways (more walks, more power, less BA) The defense is still a little shaky, but he's doing a bit better, which is the important thing. He's got a poor arm: not a lot of strength there (probably a result of the surgery) and it's why his throws get wild. It'll be interesting to see if he tries to develop a different style to handle those short tosses where they don't need to be as fast but just need to stay on target.

he should work on playing 1B some in the off-season, just make himself a viable option there. This front office definitely likes having guys who can play multiple positions, and it's a real asset to a team having that positional flexibility so I'm on board with making that a priority. Much easier to attack platoon advantages when you don't run much risk of harming yourself defensively and have players that can move around comfortably. That also makes it easier to give players days off and respond effectively to injuries. even if Kirilloff is the #1 1B next season, having Julien ready to go if he gets a nick can only help. 

It'll be interesting to see how the logjam of infielders shakes itself out, but...these things usually do on the field. Injury or ineffectiveness frequently moves someone out of the way and having superior talent ready to roll behind them is awesome. I would not look to move Julien, who might have a special bat, and is under team control for a long time for anything short of a blockbuster deal. I'm definitely not offering him up to anyone that just comes a-calling.

[LA Vikes Fan]

I think it's time to stop with the "Julien is a butcher at 2B and will never improve" vibe. He certainly started out as a butcher as do many young players first up to the bigs, and the stats and objective analysis says he's improved. Is he great? Not a chance. Is he better? Absolutely. To those who don't want to acknowledge what the objective data says about his fielding improvement, I can only say look again with an open mind. You're were right that he stunk on D when he came up. Players can and often time's do improve. Julien has and chances are, he will continue to improve in the field if he puts in the work.  Oh, and climate change is real too. 

Conversely, his hitting hasn't been good for the last the last month. The league has adjusted to him, now let's see if he adjusts. By the way, Wallner hasn't looked so great lately either although he is adjusting. We can't expect all young players to come up and immediately excel like Lewis. Lewis is a rare breed. 

We have a quality young player in Julien with a lot of potential and years of low cost control. It would be foolish to trade him now IMHO unless we can get a Ober level or better young starting pitcher in return. That seems unlikely to me so I  think the Twins should keep him, have him field 1000 grounders and throws a day in the offseason at 1B and 2B, and play for the upside.