Analytics has hurt the Twins

[Twins87]

The Twins should be 15-20 games over 500 but analytics says no mater if the 7th inning relief is doing great,  take him out, if the 8th inning is doing great take him out abd let a 9th inning loser pitch.Twins haven't had a 1 2 3 ninth win in a month

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Can you point to the analytics that causes the decision you disagree with? What’s the proof that it’s analytics promoting the decision and not Rocco seeing a soothsayer or Maki getting his palm read?

Every decision anyone has ever made involves collection of information, dissemination and decision making. Why does the tool matter?

Personally, I think the record is because the bullpen sucks, and Buck and Correa have vastly underperformed.

[Craig Arko]

20 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Can you point to the analytics that causes the decision you disagree with? What’s the proof that it’s analytics promoting the decision and not Rocco seeing a soothsayer or Maki getting his palm read?

Every decision anyone has ever made involves collection of information, dissemination and decision making. Why does the tool matter?

Personally, I think the record is because the bullpen sucks, and Buck and Correa have vastly underperformed.

I’m a soothsayer (and mathematician) and will verify that I have not been consulted, and will swear so on a copy of The Feynman Lectures on Physics.

[IndianaTwin]

8 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

I’m a soothsayer (and mathematician) and will verify that I have not been consulted, and will swear so on a copy of The Feynman Lectures on Physics.

But are you Carnac? 

[Craig Arko]

3 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

But are you Carnac? 

I am not. I did watch him and learn, though.

[wsnydes]

5 hours ago, Craig Arko said:

I am not. I did watch him and learn, though.

In my book, this qualifies you as an understudy.

[Craig Arko]

18 minutes ago, wsnydes said:

In my book, this qualifies you as an understudy.

Student.

[JD-TWINS]

6 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Can you point to the analytics that causes the decision you disagree with? What’s the proof that it’s analytics promoting the decision and not Rocco seeing a soothsayer or Maki getting his palm read?

Every decision anyone has ever made involves collection of information, dissemination and decision making. Why does the tool matter?

Personally, I think the record is because the bullpen sucks, and Buck and Correa have vastly underperformed.

Haven’t won enough games due to Buxton & CC underperforming for sure.

Bullpen doesn’t suck - pitchers give up runs - 1.0 - 1.2 runs for the 7th/8th/9th is good ERA!!

Teams that win 90 games & compete for Division Titles still lose 45% of the time - that’s baseball.

Our Pen can be frustrating but I must say our starters have spoiled us. We throw deeper into games more than any other staff. It’s not Rocco’s change of approach, our guys are pitching well very often!!

When starters leave with a lead we all expect a win. We may give up 2-3 runs over 6th-9th and we’re pissed. Score some more runs!!!

Agreed, we’re 2 guys short in our Pen at this point but I think we’ll be fine in October when we go to 4 starters & Ryan/Varland are in the Pen.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

8 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Haven’t won enough games due to Buxton & CC underperforming for sure.

Bullpen doesn’t suck - pitchers give up runs - 1.0 - 1.2 runs for the 7th/8th/9th is good ERA!!

Teams that win 90 games & compete for Division Titles still lose 45% of the time - that’s baseball.

Our Pen can be frustrating but I must say our starters have spoiled us. We throw deeper into games more than any other staff. It’s not Rocco’s change of approach, our guys are pitching well very often!!

When starters leave with a lead we all expect a win. We may give up 2-3 runs over 6th-9th and we’re pissed. Score some more runs!!!

Agreed, we’re 2 guys short in our Pen at this point but I think we’ll be fine in October when we go to 4 starters & Ryan/Varland are in the Pen.

Good perspective we see the exact same situation very differently.

you: “they’re a good bullpen only 2 relievers short”

me: “this bullpen sucks 3/8 of the pen are mop up long men”

Ha!

[JD-TWINS]

39 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Good perspective we see the exact same situation very differently.

you: “they’re a good bullpen only 2 relievers short”

me: “this bullpen sucks 3/8 of the pen are mop up long men”

Ha!

I don’t like it - Stewart’s hurt…….Lopez was a mental case……..tough to completely re-tool on the fly…….Try Funderburk & let’s give Ortega another shot.

I don’t want to punt now, just trying to be optimistic for playoffs.

[Jocko87]

7 hours ago, Craig Arko said:

I’m a soothsayer (and mathematician) and will verify that I have not been consulted, and will swear so on a copy of The Feynman Lectures on Physics.

Surely you're joking, Mr Arko.

[NotAboutWinning]

Poor application of analytics has hurt the Twins!

[Battle ur tail off]

Their approach at the plate this season IMO, has cost them a few wins. Or maybe it hasn't when we average it out, that would be something over my head or at least not something I want to look up. Either way it is obvious the approach is to hit a few balls really hard for XBH or HRS rather than keep the line moving, swing for contact with 2 strikes and/or runners on, etc.

All the strikeouts and huge swings game after game isn't as fun to watch though, that is for sure. 

[nicksaviking]

The only way to persuasively argue that analytics are bad, is to use math to prove it.

I love it.

And thus far, I've seen no proof.

[Squirrel]

3 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

And thus far, I've seen no proof.

Yep. No one wants to do the actual math so the evidence is anecdotal.

[Brock Beauchamp]

You know what I think has hurt the Twins?

Soybean futures.

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

You know what I think has hurt the Twins?

Soybean futures.

Hopefully they didn't buy lucid stock like someone I won't name did. Sigh. 

[Craig Arko]

This is what ChatGPT has to say.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Craig Arko said:

This is what ChatGPT has to say.

How many billions were spent to get that super insight?

[Nine of twelve]

24 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

This is what ChatGPT has to say.

If ChatGPT wrote it it must be true. 

[Craig Arko]

6 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

If ChatGPT wrote it it must be true. 

It is, after all, very logical. I’m working on finding the right prompt to get it to deliver a Vulcan nerve pinch. Will test it on the playoff opponents. 

[mnfireman]

Analytics has a place in the game, dating back to at least the early 70's, but sometimes the flow of the game has to be taken into consideration. PHing for a RH batter who is 2-3 when the other team brings in a tough RHP, and vice versa, is not always the correct call. Same with pitching, if the SP is coasting through 6 or 7, give him 1 or 2 batters into the next inning to see if he's still got it. Sometimes the gut overrules the spreadsheet, sometimes not. But sometimes you gotta let it play out. 

[Irishman]

12 hours ago, NotAboutWinning said:

Poor application of analytics has hurt the Twins!

Agreed!.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

43 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Analytics has a place in the game, dating back to at least the early 70's, but sometimes the flow of the game has to be taken into consideration. PHing for a RH batter who is 2-3 when the other team brings in a tough RHP, and vice versa, is not always the correct call. Same with pitching, if the SP is coasting through 6 or 7, give him 1 or 2 batters into the next inning to see if he's still got it. Sometimes the gut overrules the spreadsheet, sometimes not. But sometimes you gotta let it play out. 

Analytics has held a place in the game since the very first box score was published in a newspaper which was October 24, 1845 according to SABR

[Vanimal46]

Everyone that has used batting average to judge hitters and ERA to judge pitchers has used analytics in their life. GASP!

[dxpavelka]

Haven't really won anything since "analytics" became a thing.  Now Tampa Bay, that's a team that lives and dies by analytics and they've won--oops, nothing.  But wait. The Dodgers.  HUGE on the analytics deal.  More money to spend on payroll than God.  One (Covid tainted?) World Series win.  A wise man once said that advanced analytics are an excellent means of predicting the past.

[dxpavelka]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

Everyone that has used batting average to judge hitters and ERA to judge pitchers has used analytics in their life. GASP!

Yep.  Analytics that anyone can calculate.  None of this MIT b#@!%#@.

[Dave Borton]

On 8/20/2023 at 1:11 PM, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Rocco seeing a soothsayer or Maki getting his palm read

I knew it, I just knew it!

[Dave Borton]

Tough challenge to think this one through. Some excellent responses, thx.

I dove into Baseball Reference to look at some pitching stats. Revealing

• Quality starts, 1st, 50%, league avg 35%
• Run support for starters 15th
• Bequeathed runners scoring, 25th (ducks on the pond is killing them)
• BP avg ERA, 16th
• BP is surrendering runners on base as well as giving up runs
• Inn pitched avg start, 5th -- 5.6 inn (severe compression in data as everyone is pulling the starter)
  
  I guess I am not believing STATs are ruining the Twins pitching decisions. Seems offensive support is marginal (no surprise).
  
  We can discuss lineup and choice of pinch inserts, batting philosophy, individual performance (Buxton/Correa) and BP. I believe an over reliance on stats does impact offensive efforts.
   
• So, I have a half criticism of Baldelli/FO, not a full criticism.

[Dave Borton]

On 8/20/2023 at 1:11 PM, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Every decision anyone has ever made involves collection of information, dissemination and decision making.

Joe Maddon's book biases me here. Maddon suggests that stats are critical. He fully integrated them into his thinking. But Maddon dug more deeply into years of understanding the game, his players strengths, what players were dealing with at home, relationships with players, and years of similar events which he calls his intuition, his GUT. These aren't necessarily a conscious awareness.

It is a complicated algorithm run in the manager's subconscious and must be integrated and trusted in making conscious decisions.