Analytics has hurt the Twins

[Battle ur tail off]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Do you want to know if analytics are effective or if the twins have been effective with analytics?   If you want to know if analytics are effective, you should want to look at the most complete array of information available.  How could you tell from only looking at the twins if analytics are helpful?  You would have to assume the Twins relative degree of success or lack thereof is caused solely by their use of analytics.  I don't know why you want to use such a limited perspective in assessing anything.  It's a good way to insure a very limited understanding by default.  

BTW .... The Dodgers have had the highest winning percentage in all of baseball for the last 15 years and the rays have had more success than any team in the bottom half of revenue.  

Yes, as a function of a whole season, analytics, 100% helps win games. On a game by game basis though, SOME instinct and baseball sense is also needed to close the deal on wins. 

Finding the middle ground is what I would like to see more of. That and building better bullpens. They have not really been addressed in the offseason ever for this FO and it has hurt us now a couple years in a row. HAMMER BULLPENS WIN GAMES.

[Woof Bronzer]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

 

Right, refusing to use math is why Terry Ryan and Ron Gardenhire won so many championships.

As opposed to all the pennants the Falvine regime has showered us with?  

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Battle ur tail off said:

Rosters with better payroll, pitching staffs like this one has and not as many holes in the lineup(Jason Tyner DH anyone), Gardy would have won more than he did. They ALWAYS had good bullpens. Don't care what folks say, old Terry could build bullpens and I didn't like the guy very much.

Here you have a real contrast, both TR and Gardy were "baseball guys" and didn't use analytics much at all, while the couple we have now, are computer, analytics, spreadsheet guys and don't rely on gut/feel very much at all. Both have had about the same success when it comes down to it. 

 

 

Ryan and Gardenhire's success came before most clubs were heavily into using numbers to gain an edge. The Twins started struggling when the rest of the league decided to start using analytics too.

[dxpavelka]

15 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

You seemed to care about the Rays and Dodgers.

analytics doesn't seem to care about them

[dxpavelka]

14 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Do you want to know if analytics are effective or if the twins have been effective with analytics?   If you want to know if analytics are effective, you should want to look at the most complete array of information available.  How could you tell from only looking at the twins if analytics are helpful?  You would have to assume the Twins relative degree of success or lack thereof is caused solely by their use of analytics.  I don't know why you want to use such a limited perspective in assessing anything.  It's a good way to insure a very limited understanding by default.  

BTW .... The Dodgers have had the highest winning percentage in all of baseball for the last 15 years and the rays have had more success than any team in the bottom half of revenue.  

And one title to show for those 15 years.  Almost like they had Aaron Rodgers as their ace pitcher.  ZERO for the rays.

[dxpavelka]

13 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

 

Right, refusing to use math is why Terry Ryan and Ron Gardenhire won so many championships.

the old school stuff is math too

[chpettit19]

8 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

analytics doesn't seem to care about them

The Astros were known as the "analytics" leaders in baseball for years. Designed an entire "blow it up and rebuild" strategy around it. Were one of the first teams to start using swing path vs pitch angles in their analysis. I'm quite sure that's some MIT %#*&^%!@. They've won multiple championships with it. Every team not winning a championship in the last 10 years doesn't mean using "analytics" is the wrong choice.

My only point was that all you did was pick 3 teams who you feel haven't done great and you know they use "analytics" so you tried to claim it clearly doesn't work. The fact is that 100% of major league baseball teams use MIT %#*&^%!@. 100%. There isn't a team in baseball that doesn't use that stuff. Every team that's won a championship recently has used analytics heavily. The question is still just how well you use the tools at your disposal to build a team. The Twins haven't done it well enough. Nobody is arguing they have. But arguing they shouldn't use anything other than the "old school" stuff that "anyone can calculate" is an incredibly bold move. Why would we ever want them to refuse to use new, better (yes, they're better whether you like them or not) tools? We just need them to use the tools better.

[Whitey333]

What's hurt the Twins IMO is we have a mi n ir league manager for a major league team.  He appears totally unable to adjust to the game at hand.  Correa has been just another overpaid so called superstars.  Buxton has been leaned on for too many years as being the leader of this team.  What has he lead?  Most trips to il.  He's been a part time player for 8 years.  Yet people treat him like some kind of baseball savior.  Everyone is waiting for Buxton to be healthy.  We've been waiting for so long.  It's time to quit counting on him.  That philosophy is hampering tge whole team and it's development.  One major reason they are struggling is they just simply aren't that good.  We've been promised a consistently competitive team.  For the past three years it has been consistently mediocre.  

[Battle ur tail off]

21 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

What's hurt the Twins IMO is we have a mi n ir league manager for a major league team.  He appears totally unable to adjust to the game at hand.  Correa has been just another overpaid so called superstars.  Buxton has been leaned on for too many years as being the leader of this team.  What has he lead?  Most trips to il.  He's been a part time player for 8 years.  Yet people treat him like some kind of baseball savior.  Everyone is waiting for Buxton to be healthy.  We've been waiting for so long.  It's time to quit counting on him.  That philosophy is hampering tge whole team and it's development.  One major reason they are struggling is they just simply aren't that good.  We've been promised a consistently competitive team.  For the past three years it has been consistently mediocre.  

Agree on Correa but still think his play at SS is fantastic and not terrible with the bat. Hate the way his approach has been lately though, swinging for the fences and trying to pull everything, he has been an easy out lately. 

Buxton, at this point, it might be worth it to have him not play at all until June. Try to have him healthy for the 2nd half and IN CF the entire time he is available. I don't know, this sounds crazy, but nothing they have tried has worked with him, he is basically a china doll.

[John Belinski]

I am not sure what the odds are for scoring when there are runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs plus needing just one run to win. Last night the Twins had runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs and had their best bunter at bat and did not bunt runners over. One bunt last night wins the game for the Twins, but Rocco did not have player bunt and Twins lost a game they could have won. I expected a double play since Twins hit into a lot of them. I do not know where the Twins stand in hitting into double plays, but expect they are near the top in baseball. I think every other manager bunts runners over except for Rocco. There have been at least 3 other games that one bunt wins the game for the Twins.

[saviking]

My gut feelings were usually aligned with Gardy but are very often not aligned with Rocco .. 

Not sure what to make of that .. 

[KBJ1]

Analytics to a point, BUT Champions are not made by pure robotic manipulation of numbers. Sure if you play 100 World Series in a row and the numbers say you will win 60 of them, you likely will.

But that's not reality. The World Series is often a "Once in a Lifetime Chance" and the "human" element takes precident.

Would analytics ever have put Jack Morris out for the 10th inning in game 7?

No, he was gassed after the 8th to begin with. It was sheer guile, willpower and competitiveness that caused him to throw the pitches that got him through.

The Twins would have lost that Series if they had taken him out.

Removing Ober & Maeda after 5 innings the last two games is further proof.

Unless they told Baldelli they were done, there was no reason to remove them and the results prove it - two bullpen implosion. I don't care what the analytics say - their fastball has lost an mph, spin rate is down, whatever - they are competing and throwing good pitches. There is no reason to remove them until the opponents bats say otherwise.

At least thus year he has been letting the starters go longer, but it seems we are back to the 5 inning rule again lately.

It's one thing if you have a bullpen full of flamethrower, but we do not.

Why did we give up on McGill again? Seems to me his 101 heater put us away pretty quickly the other day. Would kill to have him right about now.

The starters have been brilliant, the offense brutal and the bullpen worse.

If we get Stewart back and put Ryan in the pen and use a starter.in relief, maybe we have a shot in the playoffs. Assuming the offense is fully healthy and starts.putting the ball in play..

I hate it when these WS windows are wasted due to I nuries or flaws that should have been addressed, but weren't.  At least they tried to make some moves last year, but they didn't pan out. Should have been addressed before the season. The pickups they made before this season were all excellent. Needed two bullpen arms, got gifted one with Stewart, but unfortunately lost him. Now they are floundering with that gaping hole that no one in the system has been able to step up and fill.

[Twins87]

Every game it's the same scenario. STARTER no matter how good he's doing is taken out in the 5th or 6th. Then a 7th inning relief is taken out even if he goes 1 2 3. Same in the eight. AND then the worst closer in baseball comes out. This system isn't working and management doesn't see it

[Jack C]

Here's where analytics fail.

1.  They fail to acknowledge any kind of human element in athletic performance.  That's ridiculous.  

2.  It cannot fail to deflate any player when he is lifted because his manager says he trusts analytics more than the player.

3.  When discussing pitching, every pitcher has periodic tough outings.  Some nights control just isn't as sharp as other nights.  The more pitchers you run out there, the greater the chance one of them is going to have "that bad outing".  If you're talking about 3rd time through an order kind of deterioration, then why are you so concerned a reliever only faces 3 or 4 hitters?

[Mike Sixel]

14 minutes ago, Jack C said:

Here's where analytics fail.

1.  They fail to acknowledge any kind of human element in athletic performance.  That's ridiculous.  

2.  It cannot fail to deflate any player when he is lifted because his manager says he trusts analytics more than the player.

3.  When discussing pitching, every pitcher has periodic tough outings.  Some nights control just isn't as sharp as other nights.  The more pitchers you run out there, the greater the chance one of them is going to have "that bad outing".  If you're talking about 3rd time through an order kind of deterioration, then why are you so concerned a reliever only faces 3 or 4 hitters?

zero of those statements are likely true, and certainly aren't "facts". 

[chpettit19]

42 minutes ago, John Belinski said:

I am not sure what the odds are for scoring when there are runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs plus needing just one run to win. Last night the Twins had runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs and had their best bunter at bat and did not bunt runners over. One bunt last night wins the game for the Twins, but Rocco did not have player bunt and Twins lost a game they could have won. I expected a double play since Twins hit into a lot of them. I do not know where the Twins stand in hitting into double plays, but expect they are near the top in baseball. I think every other manager bunts runners over except for Rocco. There have been at least 3 other games that one bunt wins the game for the Twins.

I assume you're talking about MAT in the 9th. He was asked to bunt. He made 2 pathetic attempts to bunt pitches well out of the zone. Not really a strong example for your complaint here since Rocco literally did call for the bunt, but their "best bunter" failed at the task.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, chpettit19 said:

I assume you're talking about MAT in the 9th. He was asked to bunt. He made 2 pathetic attempts to bunt pitches well out of the zone. Not really a strong example for your complaint here since Rocco literally did call for the bunt, but their "best bunter" failed at the task.

Ya, mind boggling example, given the manager did exactly what the poster wanted.....with their best bunter (who I'd make a 4th OF at this point, especially after yesterday).

[chpettit19]

40 minutes ago, KBJ1 said:

Would analytics ever have put Jack Morris out for the 10th inning in game 7?

No, he was gassed after the 8th to begin with. It was sheer guile, willpower and competitiveness that caused him to throw the pitches that got him through.

The Twins would have lost that Series if they had taken him out.

Removing Ober & Maeda after 5 innings the last two games is further proof.

Unless they told Baldelli they were done, there was no reason to remove them and the results prove it - two bullpen implosion. I don't care what the analytics say - their fastball has lost an mph, spin rate is down, whatever - they are competing and throwing good pitches. There is no reason to remove them until the opponents bats say otherwise.

 

The Mets let Matt Harvey show his "sheer guile, willpower, and competitiveness" in 2015 and it cost them a World Series game in a series ending loss.

Maeda threw 92 pitches in 5 innings while allowing 3 runs in 116 degree "feels like" heat yesterday. Taking him out is really something we feel the need to complain about? 

[chpettit19]

32 minutes ago, Twins87 said:

Every game it's the same scenario. STARTER no matter how good he's doing is taken out in the 5th or 6th. Then a 7th inning relief is taken out even if he goes 1 2 3. Same in the eight. AND then the worst closer in baseball comes out. This system isn't working and management doesn't see it

Twins starters have thrown the 3rd most innings in all of baseball. But don't let the facts get in the way of a good rant.

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Twins starters have thrown the 3rd most innings in all of baseball. But don't let the facts get in the way of a good rant.

Stop with the facts, sir. No one wants facts in a baseball argument.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

Stop with the facts, sir. No one wants facts in a baseball argument.

I tried to find a middle ground by only pointing out the innings thing and not even getting into the "worst closer in baseball" comment.

[mikelink45]

If analytics tell them to play Gallo you have completely won me over. 

[dxpavelka]

15 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

The Astros were known as the "analytics" leaders in baseball for years. Designed an entire "blow it up and rebuild" strategy around it. Were one of the first teams to start using swing path vs pitch angles in their analysis. I'm quite sure that's some MIT %#*&^%!@. They've won multiple championships with it. Every team not winning a championship in the last 10 years doesn't mean using "analytics" is the wrong choice.

My only point was that all you did was pick 3 teams who you feel haven't done great and you know they use "analytics" so you tried to claim it clearly doesn't work. The fact is that 100% of major league baseball teams use MIT %#*&^%!@. 100%. There isn't a team in baseball that doesn't use that stuff. Every team that's won a championship recently has used analytics heavily. The question is still just how well you use the tools at your disposal to build a team. The Twins haven't done it well enough. Nobody is arguing they have. But arguing they shouldn't use anything other than the "old school" stuff that "anyone can calculate" is an incredibly bold move. Why would we ever want them to refuse to use new, better (yes, they're better whether you like them or not) tools? We just need them to use the tools better.

actually I never said not to use the new stuff but merely point out that overlooking the tried and true is fools road.  and yes advanced analytics ARE an excellent means of predicting the past

 

[dxpavelka]

On 8/24/2023 at 7:25 AM, chpettit19 said:

The Astros were known as the "analytics" leaders in baseball for years. Designed an entire "blow it up and rebuild" strategy around it. Were one of the first teams to start using swing path vs pitch angles in their analysis. I'm quite sure that's some MIT %#*&^%!@. They've won multiple championships with it. Every team not winning a championship in the last 10 years doesn't mean using "analytics" is the wrong choice.

My only point was that all you did was pick 3 teams who you feel haven't done great and you know they use "analytics" so you tried to claim it clearly doesn't work. The fact is that 100% of major league baseball teams use MIT %#*&^%!@. 100%. There isn't a team in baseball that doesn't use that stuff. Every team that's won a championship recently has used analytics heavily. The question is still just how well you use the tools at your disposal to build a team. The Twins haven't done it well enough. Nobody is arguing they have. But arguing they shouldn't use anything other than the "old school" stuff that "anyone can calculate" is an incredibly bold move. Why would we ever want them to refuse to use new, better (yes, they're better whether you like them or not) tools? We just need them to use the tools better.

Martin Maldonado

[Dave Borton]

On 8/24/2023 at 11:08 AM, John Belinski said:

I do not know where the Twins stand in hitting into double plays, but expect they are near the top in baseball...

They actually are 17th. .73 per game, down from .82 last year.

Yeah, I was surprised as well.

https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/grounded-into-double-plays-per-game

 

 

[Dave Borton]

On 8/24/2023 at 11:10 AM, saviking said:

My gut feelings were usually aligned with Gardy but are very often not aligned with Rocco .. 

Not sure what to make of that .. 

Had to chuckle. I am in the same boat but I realize that I "liked" Gardy and just find Baldelli unappealing on a variety of measures. There's bias which affects an objective assessment but...

I can still dislike Rocco. <Winks>. Lots.

[ewen21]

On 8/20/2023 at 2:11 PM, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Can you point to the analytics that causes the decision you disagree with? What’s the proof that it’s analytics promoting the decision and not Rocco seeing a soothsayer or Maki getting his palm read?

Every decision anyone has ever made involves collection of information, dissemination and decision making. Why does the tool matter?

Personally, I think the record is because the bullpen sucks, and Buck and Correa have vastly underperformed.

It's not the in game stuff as much as it is roster building and coaching philosophy (all rooted in sabermetrics).  TO be specific, the emphasis on things like "exit velo" and "launch angle" and the lack of concern for putting the bat on the baseball has adversely affected this team (and many other teams).  You think fact that this team is on its way to set a record for strikeouts in a season has nothing to do with an emphasis on certain sabermetrics that shouldn't be so emphasized?   We wouldn't have Joey Gallo without their myopic view that doesn't extend very far beyond certain analytics that have become popular.

 

And if we are going to be real, Buxton has not underperformed.  If his history matters at all Buxton is by no means a reliable producer and no Twins fan should be surprised by this season.  He has had a couple of good years and several dreadful years where he's been riddled with injuries.  Some real talk about Buxton:

1. He has played more than 92 games in a season only once
2. He has never scored 70 runs in a season
3. He has never driven in more than 51 runs in a season
4. He has collected more than 76 hits in a season once

Let me repeat that one.  He has collected more than 76 hits in a season once!

Let's not be deluded by this guy anymore.  He has  not underperformed.  He has had more than his share of seasons like this.

[Dave Borton]

29 minutes ago, ewen21 said:

Let's not be deluded by this guy anymore.

Never have been. But, oh, to watch him fly in CF. Now there is pleasure. 

Not justifying putting him in at DH or playing him if he is hurt. He has a body with a muscles and skeletal system which can't stand the rigors of the game. Poor on-field participation rate and offensive stats clearly reflect that.