Byron Buxton's Clock Is Ticking

[Cody Pirkl]

The Twins have an important part of their lineup on the comeback trail in Jorge Polanco. With Edouard Julien more than holding his own in Polanco’s absence, Byron Buxton should be the loser of playing time when Polanco returns.

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

We’ve seen the Twins operate on a 1:1 replacement basis this season, sticking to the plan to a fault at times. Previously it was white-hot Matt Wallner sent down for a returning Max Kepler simply because Wallner was the replacement when Kepler hit the IL.

In the case of Jorge Polanco, we saw this play out during his first IL trip with Edouard Julien, who took his place for a brief time, showed some flashes, and was sent back down when Polanco returned. Julien again took Polanco’s spot in the previous, more lengthy injury absence. This time, however, the Twins would be downright foolish to stick to their usual 1:1 trade-off when Polanco returns.

Shipping a second baseman out for a returning second baseman makes sense, but Julien has emerged as one of the key cogs of an underwhelming Twins lineup. The left-hander has slashed .298/.373/.525 on the season, a batting line that places him 49% better than the league-average hitter. His eye at the plate and ability to ambush mistakes are welcome additions to the Twins lineup, and it’s hard to imagine what the offense would be without him at this point. So what can the Twins do? 

Unfortunately, at this point, the answer has become far too obvious that the best-case scenario for the Twins' chances of winning involves Byron Buxton losing in a significant way. The full-time DH is one of the worst offensive regulars in the lineup, a devastating development for the offense.

There were some raising minor issues with Buxton’s change in approach last season making him boom-bust at the plate. This season Buxton has crossed the line where it’s impossible to argue that the bust has completely outweighed the boom. He appears to be completely guessing, taking pitches right down the middle while swinging at others that were never even close to the strike zone. It feels like the only positive potential outcome at this point when Buxton is hitting is for him to guess correctly and pull a ball in the air over the fence. His 31+% strikeout rate is his worst since 2016, and it’s easy to see the change in what he’s trying to do at the plate since 2021. Rest assured, it’s not paying off.

This change in approach may be injury related. We should hope so, as such a change from the multi-dimensional approach Buxton showed in 2021 to what we see now would be an unjustifiable adjustment to make on purpose. At any rate, Byron Buxton is doing the Twins no favors. His wRC+ is approaching Michael A. Taylor who gets negative attention at times for his subpar offense. Unlike Taylor, Buxton is providing nothing defensively, and instead of settling into the nine spot, he’s disrupting the lineup with his constant hitless streaks and non-competitive at-bats coming in the three-hole. So what can the Twins do?

If the Twins are willing to be real with themselves, the Buxton situation can’t continue the way it has. They’re a worse team with him in the lineup over several other options at the moment. When Jorge Polanco returns, they can go in a few different directions. They could send Wallner back down and greatly decrease Buxton’s playing time in favor of Edouard Julien filling the DH spot. Buxton can focus more on physical maintenance and get mental breaks while still cycling into the lineup here and there.

The solution fans have discussed for some time is simply placing Buxton on the IL indefinitely. He may not like it, but there’s no way he’s not dealing with some kind of physical impairment worthy of an IL trip. This would open a roster spot for another player deserving of a shot, such as Matt Wallner or a bat acquired at the deadline. It may not fix anything with Buxton physically, but it at least allows him time to work on things and go on a lengthy rehab assignment to try to get things straightened out. It’s easy to say at this point that it would be a massive boost to the lineup to add Polanco while keeping Julien in Buxton’s stead.

The Byron Buxton situation is officially untenable. Even the highs at this point last for a handful of days and are promptly followed by a week plus of absolutely nothing. The Twins quite simply have too many better options if this is the Byron Buxton they’re going to get. They can no longer ignore what they’re watching on a nightly basis, and his being under contract long-term can no longer trump his actual production when it comes to what spot in the order he hits and more importantly who he plays over. 

When Jorge Polanco returns, it should be at the expense of Byron Buxton, not Edouard Julien. Do you agree?

 

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[LA Vikes Fan]

Easy answer. Yes, a thousand times yes. 

[chpettit19]

Do I agree? Yes. 100%. Do the Twins agree? I'm not sure, but am interested to find out.

[CRF]

If they send Julien down when Polanco is activated, there should be a fan base revolt outside Target Field. Yeah, he's not a gold glover by any stretch, but he can swing a very good stick. He has to stay in the lineup somehow. 

[4twinsJA]

Buxton's been painful to watch, it will be hard for him to make necessary adjustments midseason against MLB pitching. Put Buxton on IL, extended rehab assignment, put him in room and have him watch 2021 Buxton for a week, then work on adjustments on rehab assignment.

[gman]

If they don't send him to the IL, who do they send down or cut. It's Wallner, Julian, Castro or Kirilloff. I think all of those 4 are more valuable, plus they are all hitting better.  If they try to put him on the IL, will he go? Polanco seems to need a couple more games at St Paul, but his time to return is almost upon us.

 

[MABB1959]

Nothing left to say except maybe see if playing CF will help.  His injuries can’t get worse and if they do time to start contemplating medical retirement.  

[RpR]

Wallner goes down , not julien.

[Karbo]

I've been saying for weeks the guy needs to go on IL. The Twins way of trying to swing for the fences has ruined him. The guy is always trying to pull the ball, no matter the pitch. He has absolutely no 2 strike approach. If he is to hurt to play in the field he needs to go on IL. For now Wallner can DH, and when Polo comes back let Julian DH most games. I personally think a switch to 1st base for Polo would help him a lot. But since the front office and management team can't seem to think outside the box a bit, that will probably not happen. AK in left and let Kepler and Gallo (assuming they are both here for the rest of the year)can rotate.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Things have a way of working themselves out. But yes, Julien will stay up. There is no other answer

[USNMCPO]

Sunk cost

[LA Vikes Fan]

12 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I've been saying for weeks the guy needs to go on IL. The Twins way of trying to swing for the fences has ruined him. The guy is always trying to pull the ball, no matter the pitch. He has absolutely no 2 strike approach. If he is to hurt to play in the field he needs to go on IL. For now Wallner can DH, and when Polo comes back let Julian DH most games. I personally think a switch to 1st base for Polo would help him a lot. But since the front office and management team can't seem to think outside the box a bit, that will probably not happen. AK in left and let Kepler and Gallo (assuming they are both here for the rest of the year)can rotate.

 

[KirbyDome89]

They've continued to stick it out with Kepler and Gallo, I guess I'll believe it when I see it with sitting Buxton. If he hits the Il as soon as Polanco is back there should be plenty of questions about why they didn't make that move sooner...

[Schmoeman5]

YES! And the fact it took this long speaks volumes.  His breakdowns month by month. March. 2-5 .400 avg April 23-92 .250 avg. May 15-85 .179 avg. June 8-50 .160 avg.  July 6-45 ,133 avg.   29-180 in May June  and July. So nearly 3 solid months of futility at the plate. And that's hitting in the 3 spot in the lineup. His production month was April when he built up his home run and OPS numbers. He's definitely playing with injury. 60 day IL and get him healthy for 2024. That or keep hoping he'll break out.

[DocBauer]

Nor going to find a bigger fan of Buck than myself. But yeah, the word for watching him right now is "painful". Absolutely seems to be guessing on every single pitch, but also acting as if he's not allowed to hit something in the center of the zone.

While never a perfect player/hitter, and always with far fewer gamea/AB than we'd like, 2019/20/21/22 had him with OPS+ of 115/125/171/133.

That's a good, powerful, and dangerous bat. While his inability to play defense...maybe never again...is an awful shame, I'd take the '19-'22 Buxton as our full time DH any day of the week.

But he's not even close to that player right now. I'd like to see him get a IL stint for his back, at least, as well as a mental re-set. Let Julien and Polanco both play, whether it be 2B or DH. Further, for a team that prides itself on trying to be creative, who likes to build rosters that have versatility, they are being foolishly stubborn at this time.

Why not Julien at 1B? He's done it before. Maybe some LF? Again, he's done it before. He won't be great at either spot, but I'd settle for OK at 1B and passable/not dangerous in left,  and it keeps his bat in the lineup and offers the lineup more flexibility. For that matter, maybe Polanco could play a little 3B? Or with his leg issues, how about him learning some 1B?

Help Buxton feel better and get his "hitters head" screwed on straight and keep the better bats that are actually contributing in the lineup.

For that matter, DON'T send Wallner down. DH and OF, let him play. Time to move on from one of Gallo or Kepler. It would appear Kepler is made of Teflon in the FO opinion, so I guess Gallo goes. 

I love Buxton. I believe in him, even as a full time DH, if that's his future. But we just aren't getting anything close to the Byron we've seen the past 4yrs. It's time for some changes and some re-sets.

[Florida Flash]

Just now, 4twinsJA said:

Buxton's been painful to watch, it will be hard for him to make necessary adjustments midseason against MLB pitching. Put Buxton on IL, extended rehab assignment, put him in room and have him watch 2021 Buxton for a week, then work on adjustments on rehab assignment.

I have been wanting the Twins to do something to get Buxton straightened out, if possible. Surely they could come up with some reason he needs a short IL and rehab assignment in St. Paul. BUT, they may be afraid Buxton wont hit at St. Paul either. Then what???? Oh well, it was only $200 million. Just raise the prices some more.

[LA Vikes Fan]

12 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I've been saying for weeks the guy needs to go on IL. The Twins way of trying to swing for the fences has ruined him. The guy is always trying to pull the ball, no matter the pitch. He has absolutely no 2 strike approach. If he is to hurt to play in the field he needs to go on IL. For now Wallner can DH, and when Polo comes back let Julian DH most games. I personally think a switch to 1st base for Polo would help him a lot. But since the front office and management team can't seem to think outside the box a bit, that will probably not happen. AK in left and let Kepler and Gallo (assuming they are both here for the rest of the year)can rotate.

This kind of an interesting idea. You put Polanco or Julien at 1B, with the other at 2B. Kirilloff plays LF/1B, with Wallner/Kepler/Gallo at RF and DH. That puts a strong left-handed bat on the bench every game between Julien, Kirilloff, Wallner, Kepler and Gallo, with the other four in the lineup. Polanco, Kirilloff and Julien play almost every day. Solano and Farmer hold down third-base for now with Castro in a CF platoon with MAT. Could be tough against left-handed starting pitching, but then you bring in Solano and Farmer and sit two of the left-handed hitters. My view is to keep playing Kirilloff and Julien as much as you can even against left-handed pitchers. Against right-handed pitching, either Solano or Farmer plays 3B, and the other can potentially can be the DH if you wanted to sit two of the left-handed hitters. Key is it does require Buxton to go on the Il to make room for Polanco. If yo want to balance a little more between right and left hitters, or even just do the right thing, trade or release Gallo and call up Chris Williams (my choice) or Andrew Stevenson. Now you have plenty of right-handed hitters if you want to do more platooning and help the team against left-handed starters, the current biggest weakness.

Effectively, take the same roster we have now, put Buxton on the IL, move Gallo out, and replace them with Polanco and Williams. 

[shabbos1]

Anyone else remember the nasty collision vs the White Sox around mid-April where Buxton ran into the second baseman full speed and landed directly on his head/neck and was slow to get up?  I wonder if he doesn't have a post-concussion thing going on in addition to his other injuries.  It's just impossible for a guy as athletic as Buxton to look this pitiful at the plate without something really being wrong.

 

[LA Vikes Fan]

Very difficult decision to handle properly with a prideful guy who has been a good player until this season. I that's why I like the idea of putting him on the IL. That gives you the option of sitting him down and telling him that the team just wants him to take the time to get himself right so he can help the team later in the season during a playoff drive and in the playoffs. The Twins can make him feel good about his place on the team long-term. Between the IL stint and a rehab in AAA, you probably keep him out until  early to mid August. That gives you a chance to see if Wallner really can play at the MLB level and hopefully confirm that Julien and Kirilloff belong the Bigs. Also gives you a chance to see if Polanco can stay injury free. You open up a spot at the end of the month by losing one of Kepler or Gallo hopefully, and also have someone in the background in case you have another injury. It's tough when Lewis is ready to come back but that's the problem for another day. 

[curt1965]

Most fans are Buxton supporters, and appreciate his past contributions and future possibilities. But he has been, in almost everyone’s opinion, hurting this team.

Examples:

In his last 8 games, he is 1-31 with 16 strikeouts.

Last night, in a very winnable game, he came up twice in rally situations, and struck out twice. Hard to imagine anyone else in that situation not getting pinch hit for!

I really hope he does not have a clause in his contract that rewards him for the number of games played! Finding that to be true would be insurrection time for Twins fans.

 

 

[RpR]

Put Bux on the IL and call up Stevenson, why he has never been called up is odd.

[bronald3030]

They need an outfielder who bats righthanded and Buxton is not doing the job. They should ask Arizona about Gurriel, he is not even starting for Arizona. It might not cost too much since he would be a rental.

[Schmoeman5]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

They've continued to stick it out with Kepler and Gallo, I guess I'll believe it when I see it with sitting Buxton. If he hits the Il as soon as Polanco is back there should be plenty of questions about why they didn't make that move sooner...

He's sitting tonight

[gman]

Probably his scheduled night off.

[jkcarew]

I’m not convinced his approach has changed much from 2021. He’s just not executing the approach as well AND not getting as lucky.

In 2021, his BABiP was unsustainably high (344)…and his HR/FB was around 20%…and had been otherworldly high across 2020, 2021, and 2022. This year those numbers are 235 and 14.9%. In 2021 his XBH% was ridiculously high (and unsustainable) 16.5%, this year 8.9%…career number is 10.6%. 2021 OPS 1.005, career, 763.

I think we can forget about 2021 (which was only 250 PA, btw)

If anything he’s been a little less aggressive, more P/PA, getting deeper into counts…and it hasn’t worked…more walks but more K’s and slightly lower exit velocity.

He’s always been a very low OBP guy, making a ton of outs, and relying on an extreme rate of XBH to provide offensive value. It’s a profile that is a bit of a house of cards. The sad part is that even at a 700-750 OPS…which isn’t that far from what he’s been, it would be just fine if he were playing CF and batting 6th or 7th in the order.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, USNMCPO said:

Sunk cost

That’s a Fallacy!

[karcherd]

Gallo should be the one to go.  Get whatever you can for him or release him.  And stop worrying about LH/RH splits, play your best players every day.  Not all players are equal in ability and by having so many platoon players they are not always putting out their best lineup.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, karcherd said:

Gallo should be the one to go.  Get whatever you can for him or release him.  And stop worrying about LH/RH splits, play your best players every day.  Not all players are equal in ability and by having so many platoon players they are not always putting out their best lineup.

He's got an OPS nearly 100 points higher than Kepler..... And this thread is about Buxton. 

[Blyleven2011]

We all feel for buck and as he plays  he most certainly  is playing at less than a 100 %  ...

His injuries last year have definitely changed his swing as he swings through to many pitches with an upper cut , he needs to level his swing some to make better contact , I agree with others that he needs to look at his past years when he was driving the ball and hitting lots of doubles  , even lots of singles that he turned into doubles  , he is definitely not 100 % ...

The front office  just might be okay with buck swinging for the fences  so he doesn't have to run hard around the bases ....

I also agree that he should go on the IL list and rest his injuries  and then rehab to correct his timing and approach and be ready for September  and possibly help the twins win the division  ...

Buck needs to level that swing for netter contact  , but again maybe the FO doesn't want him to change , it's their style and interpretation of baseball to play for the  once in a blue moon homerun ...

[Cozinator]

He needs something, obviously. Right now he's a drag on the lineup. If it were based on performance, there's no way he'd be in the the three hole or even in the line up. Maybe surgery on his knee again? Aim for '24. Because the '23 Buxton isn't doing himself or the team any good.