Week in Review: Stuck In Their Ways

[Nick Nelson]

The second-place Minnesota Twins head into the All-Star break with a broken offense that shows no signs of being repaired. 

The Twins remain magnetically attracted to the .500 mark, and with each passing week it gets harder to believe they're capable of creating any distance from it.

 

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 7/3 through Sun, 7/9
***
Record Last Week: 3-3 (Overall: 45-46)
Run Differential Last Week: -4 (Overall: +27)
Standing: 2nd Place in AL Central (0.5 GB)

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 86 | MIN 8, KC 4: Twins Explode for Five Runs in the Eighth
Game 87 | MIN 9, KC 3: Maeda Masterful, Bats Continue to Click
Game 88 | MIN 5, KC 0: Lopez Slices Up Royals in CG Shutout
Game 89 | BAL 3, MIN 1: Bats Manage One Run in 10 Innings
Game 90 | BAL 6, MIN 2: Orioles Strike for 5 on Sonny in Second
Game 91 | BAL 15, MIN 2: First Half Ends with Emblematic Blowout

NEWS & NOTES

On Tuesday, the Twins activated Jorge López from his mental health-related injured list stint, optioning Brent Headrick to make room. López's first week back in action was fairly encouraging, with one run allowed on two hits over three innings of work. He's still not missing many bats, but on the bright side: no walks, no HBP. The right-hander has a long way to go before the Twins will be comfortable trusting him in high-leverage situations again, but it's really good to see him back on the mound.

Later in the week, Josh Winder was swapped out of the bullpen for Cole Sands, who wrapped a rehab assignment that featured six strikeouts over three scoreless frames. Sands' modest intrigue quickly faded when he returned to the mound on Sunday and got blasted, allowing six earned runs while recording one out.

HIGHLIGHTS

On Wednesday night at Target Field, I had the pleasure of being in attendance to watch one of the most finely pitched games by a Twins starter in recent history. Not only did Pablo López hurl a complete-game shutout – the second in two weeks for the Twins, following a five-year drought – but he did so in remarkably dominant fashion.

Needing only 100 pitches to get through all nine frames against Kansas City, Pablo struck out 12 while issuing zero walks, inducing 15 swinging strikes to draw his solid ERA (3.86) closer to his elite FIP (3.18).

López's career-best start set the stage for another milestone moment, as the Twins announced during Saturday's game that he was named to the All-Star team as a replacement. It's been a reaffirming run for the righty, who became the biggest long-term fixture in the rotation when the front office extended him following the Luis Arraez trade. He has a 2.72 ERA in his past six starts.

Exactly one week after Ted Wiedmann wrote here that Pablo López is better than his ERA, the assertion was backed up emphatically on the field, and now Pablo is a deserving first-time All-Star.

His gem on Wednesday night served as the finishing touch in a methodical three-game sweep against the Royals. The Twins exerted their will against this lowly last-place team, outscoring them 22-7 and leading for essentially the whole series. 

Following a series victory the previous weekend in Baltimore, Minnesota was 5-1 since their much discussed closed-door meeting. It looked as though, at long last, the Twins were ready to get going on a long-awaited run and create some separation – from the Guardians, from the .500 mark, from the jaded doomsayers.

Narrator's voice: They weren't.

LOWLIGHTS

It was a week like any other: The Twins showed a glimmer of promise, rattling off three convincing wins against the Royals, then promptly annihilated any and all good vibes with an absolutely dismal showing against the Orioles to close out the pre-ASG schedule.

Minnesota's early-week success came to feel very hollow as the team reverted right back to the same bland, uninspiring, lifeless brand of baseball that pushed them into a player accountability session to begin with. 

Sunday's sweep-clinching finale against the Orioles was definitively the worst the Twins have gotten their asses kicked all year: a lopsided 15-2 laugher in front of dejected hometown fans attempting to muster some semblance of enthusiasm for this lackluster product.

Look, sweeping the Royals is a meaningful accomplishment, no matter how much some people want to downplay it. They are a major-league team and while they are definitely among the worst, it's hard to win three straight against anyone, especially in such overwhelming fashion. The Royals had recently won series against the Rays and Dodgers. No one had thrown a CG SO against them all year before López did it. 

But beating up Kansas City is merely requisite at this point. It's not something anyone can get all that excited about. Especially when the various signs of positivity coming out of that series get evaporated to dust within days.

The Twins pitching staff looked fantastic against a bottom-tier Royals offense. But when a quality Orioles club came to town, those flickering signs of regression danced right back to the surface. 

Jhoan Duran took the loss on Friday night, allowing two runs in the 10th. Sonny Gray, representing the Twins in the All-Star Game alongside Pablo, coughed up six runs in one inning on Saturday. Joe Ryan couldn't get through five frames on Sunday, giving way to a brutal game for the bullpen.

Meanwhile, the offense went right back into the dumps. It's the same issue over and over with these guys: no staying power. Brief moments of energy from the lineup, hinting at what the front office envisioned from the start, are unfailingly halted by pervasive mega-slumps.

Byron Buxton had three hits including a home run in the July 4th win over the Royals. That's cool. Aside from that he was 1-for-16, continuing to be an overall liability as a DH batting third. 

Carlos Correa notched four hits in Monday's series-opening victory. Great! He followed by going 3-for-17 the rest of the week, with zero extra-base hits and zero RBIs.

These two continue to set the tone for a team that likewise can't sustain any momentum or shake off the growing weight of underperformance, with no attributable excuse or fixable factor to fall back on. 

Buxton and Correa surely are not at full health, but they are healthy enough to play. They're playing really badly. The Twins as a team are not at full health, but they've got a majority of their planned key pieces in place. For the play on the field to be this chronically poor – and getting worse, not better – is deeply unsettling because the truth is ... things are going mostly to plan.  

It's past time for making major changes to that plan in-flight. This week's All-Star break offers a glaring opportunity to take action and leave the lip service behind.

TRENDING STORYLINE

Any illusions that a closed-door meeting was going to magically cure what ailed the Twins offense were quickly shattered, as the next 10 days yielded a familiar pattern: occasional modest run-scoring outbursts, heavily outweighed by droughts of emptiness and overmatched at-bats resulting in frustrating losses, with pitchers like Duran hung out to dry.

When the Twins were swept in Atlanta by the Braves, people throughout the organization (including Rocco Baldelli) were open and adamant: something has got to change. In practical terms nothing did, and here we are, not even two weeks later, coming off a much uglier sweep at home against a lesser team. The Twins continue to get worse not better, as the threat to derail an unprecedented moment of opportunity gains gravity.

No more talk. At this point, something REALLY needs to change.

The inconvenient truth of the matter is that in some ways, the Twins front office is handcuffed. They are shackled to their dual faces of the franchise. 

Correa and Buxton are at the core of the team's shortcomings, and neither is going anywhere. If Correa is healthy enough to play, he'll be at shortstop everyday. If Buxton is healthy enough to play (but not enough to play CF), he'll be the DH. You can talk about moving them down in the order but that's a negligible factor at this point.

If Correa and Buxton don't play significantly better down the stretch, the Twins are pretty much hopeless. That part is what it is.

Even in the face of that maddeningly uncontrollable reality, however, the front office can take steps to shake things up in other areas. A few moves that stand out to me as distinct possibilities: 

Moving on from David Popkins. His case for remaining in place has only grown more flimsy since I pondered the hitting coach's job security two months ago. Making him scapegoat for the lineup's struggles is a drastic oversimplification, and removing him won't be a miracle cure, but a new voice atop the hitting coach instruction group seems like a no-brainer.

Replacing Joey Gallo on the roster with Matt Wallner or Trevor Larnach. In the first few weeks of the season, Gallo was pretty good. It looked like the one-year gamble signing might work out. I think by now we can fairly say it hasn't. Since the start of May, Gallo has the third-lowest fWAR on the team. His occasional solo home run really doesn't offer any compelling value at this point amid an endless sea of strikeouts, and as a 29-year-old on a one-year deal he offers no upside. Give his playing time to someone with a future here.

Informing Max Kepler he'll be playing center field regularly against right-handed pitchers. One of the clearest offensive weaknesses in the Twins lineup is center field, where Michael A. Taylor and Willi Castro have been splitting time as Buxton mans DH. With Kepler's bat rounding into form a bit, he'd offer much more value in center, making room for someone like Wallner or Larnach to replace Taylor or Castro in the lineup against RHP. Based on reports, Kepler's lack of CF playing time in recent years owes mainly to his own preference. Too bad – he doesn't write the lineups, and it's time to start doing what is best for the team.

The Twins need to get unstuck from their ways. That means making some tough decisions and making some people uncomfortable. These are just three examples of moves that would give fans some actual reason to believe something might change, as opposed to blind faith and adherence to the status quo.

LOOKING AHEAD

The Twins will lick their wounds over a four-day break for the Midsummer Classic before returning to action in Oakland against one of the few teams that can contend with Kansas City's level of ineptitude. Although the bad taste of this series against the Orioles will linger for much of the next week, the Twins will have a chance to rinse it quickly afterward.

MONDAY, 7/10: Home Run Derby
TUESDAY, 7/11: All-Star Game @ Seattle
FRIDAY, 7/14: TWINS @ ATHLETICS
SATURDAY, 7/15: TWINS @ ATHLETICS
SUNDAY, 7/16: TWINS @ ATHLETICS

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[twins_89]

The Yankees just fired their hitting coach, I don't see any reason that the Twins shouldn't do the same.

[D.C Twins]

"I still believe the vast majority of the meager and listless offense we'll get the remainder of the season is going to come from my terrible offensive roster construction the guys in that room. It's not going to be via acquisition that's going to make the primary difference.

Fixed that statement for Falvey! 

Indifference is setting in for me... 

[D.C Twins]

On a more positive note... welcome back Jorge Lopez!.... I hope he gets the support he needs going forward and continues to thrive!

[Cap'n Piranha]

Twins are 8-1, and +33 runs against the Royals, meaning they are 37-45 and -6 runs against everyone else.  It’s time to clean house and start a rebuild.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't understand their unwillingness to move on from the two corner OFs at this point. 

[Brandon]

The Yankees who has the most similar lineup to ours just fired their hitting coach.   
I agree with moving Kepler to CF some time to bring up Wallner to play some in RF.

 I do think if Buxton isn’t up to playing in the field he should need to sit some games out if he continues to hurt the offense with no defense.  
I do think if Gallo can keep his OPS over .800 he can be fine on offense.  Not great but ok.

[PDX Twin]

What must the starting pitchers be thinking. Before today, the best ERA in baseball and no winning record in a really weak division.

When do we play Oakland? Might be worth watching.

[Danchat]

Nobody should be surprised about Gallo's play, he's the same guy he was last year. He'll hit a few HRs and take some walks that will make his OPS look acceptable, but he's abysmal at getting hits, moving runners, can't hit a sac fly to save his life. And as most of us anticipated when the signing happened, here we are at midseason - he stinks, but he remains in the lineup due to the front office's hubris.

Pretty crazy how the team's best hitters have been Julien, Solano, and Lewis. Kirilloff and Jeffers have been solid, while the rest has been an unmitigated disaster - replacement level hitting from Correa, extreme hot and cold from Buxton, liabilities from the corner OF in Kepler/Gallo, Vazquez is suddenly horrific at the plate, Miranda is a shell of the player he was last year, Farmer is about 70 OPS points below expectation, and backups like Taylor and Castro are playing way too often. Too many injuries, and even when a top prospect is knocking the door down, they refuse to call him up.

Say what you will about a rebuild/reboot, but a third straight losing season should get the whole organization walking papers (and also if they eek a little above .500). Their "win now" window has been open for several years and the team is mediocre, the farm system is middling, and the organization itself while modernized since the TR days has stagnated to a point where we have one banner season that is getting farther and farther in the rear view mirror... and even that year didn't win a single bleeping playoff game.

[RpR]

When and IF, if the rookies are good enough they will be called up without replacing an injury.

They are not good enough and turning the Bigs into a quasi-AAA class room is not intelligent.

Come next year, it will be interesting to see what pans out without first  screwing with rookies minds  by throwing them against a level of play  still outside their scope.

 

What Cincinatti did with De La Cruz is an extreme rarity nowadays.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

55 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Twins are 8-1, and +33 runs against the Royals, meaning they are 37-45 and -6 runs against everyone else.  It’s time to clean house and start a rebuild.

Just say “no” to rebuilds!

but it is time to change the GM and Manager, at least Levine, and Rocco need to go. They clearly don’t have an answer for the frustratingly awful hitting.

[Guest]

The hitters are running their own pre-game strategy sessions.  That says none of the hitting coaches are adding any value.  Send a message and get rid of them all.

[curt1965]

Brilliant analysis by Nick, as usual. By will the Twins make any changes now? I doubt it.

Why aren’t the Twins scoring? Here are the B.A.’s of the 9 players against RH pitchers:

.225

.264

.212

.274

.211

.206

.213

.189

.218

Implement Nick’s 3 suggestions. Getting rid of Gallo and the hitting(?) coach should get someone’s attention. 

 

 

[Western SD Fan]

So coming to Target Field for the first time in 4 years worked well this weekend as I'm hoping to secure a contract from the Twins to stay away.🙂 Here are a couple of items I took out of the weekend.

I'm unsure Correa is the veteran presence we all had hoped for. The only time he didn't seem to GIDP is when there were already 2 outs in the inning. 

I do think that Buxton needs to go on the IL until he is actually ready to play in the outfield. He seems to be a person that lulls about every AB and needs to make great OF plays to regain confidence. 

Gallo just needs to go. On Saturday, the young PA announcer accidentally announced him twice. I made the comment that they should give him six strikes and I bet he would still strikeout. 

It has to be stressful to be a pitcher as giving up a run might create a loss. Even though it is the easiest thing to do, The pitching has been there all year so everyone needs a pass once in awhile Sonny Gray bull dogged 6 innings when anyone else would have taken him out after the 2nd.

Popkins probably needs to go as well.  I agree that no one has to be listening to him anymore. Maybe they can get Adam Dunn to be the new hitting coach. Again, making a joke before today's game when two little kids scores from 3rd bout hoping that wasn't the only runs we scored today. It just about happened.

Don't fret. I'm leaving MN tomorrow and will be back next year for a weekend of twins games. 🙂

[Fezig]

Time for a managerial philosophy where strike outs aren't accepted as a badge of honor. 

[Rosterman]

Twins pitching struck out 15 Orioles. But they still struck out 13 times, especilly with no outs and runners on base.

St. Paul gets 20 runs on a day he Twins give up 15.

Carmargo, Wolters and Williams can all catch, Williams can play other positions. An outfield of Stevenson, Contreras and Wallner has to be better than anything the Twins can put out there right now, an that's not even including Larnach who is hitting better in the majors than 10 of the guys currently on the Twins bench.

The Twins need to make some hard decisions, and one of them IS NOT sending Julien back down to the minors if and win Polanco comes back.

Hitting coach ash to be the fall guy. WHo they can move up or bring in is the question, Maybe bring Dick Bremer in from the booth with his Town Ball experience.

[Mike Sixel]

6 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

Twins pitching struck out 15 Orioles. But they still struck out 13 times, especilly with no outs and runners on base.

St. Paul gets 20 runs on a day he Twins give up 15.

Carmargo, Wolters and Williams can all catch, Williams can play other positions. An outfield of Stevenson, Contreras and Wallner has to be better than anything the Twins can put out there right now, an that's not even including Larnach who is hitting better in the majors than 10 of the guys currently on the Twins bench.

The Twins need to make some hard decisions, and one of them IS NOT sending Julien back down to the minors if and win Polanco comes back.

Hitting coach ash to be the fall guy. WHo they can move up or bring in is the question, Maybe bring Dick Bremer in from the booth with his Town Ball experience.

You can't be serious about that OF comment.

 

[Riverbrian]

Paying good money to a player playing bad is a mistake but a mistake that doesn't have to be fatal. 

Playing that player over and over again is doubling down on that mistake and that is the part that kills you.

Since they have already double downed. 

The quote from Falvey appears to be a tripling down.

Derek Falvey on the possibility of trading for offense: "I still believe the vast majority of the offense we'll get the remainder of the season is going to come from the guys in that room. It's not going to be via acquisition that's going to make the primary difference."

They are standing behind their product. Companies that do that usually offer a warranty.  

[karcherd]

2 hours ago, Brandon said:

The Yankees who has the most similar lineup to ours just fired their hitting coach.   
I agree with moving Kepler to CF some time to bring up Wallner to play some in RF.

 I do think if Buxton isn’t up to playing in the field he should need to sit some games out if he continues to hurt the offense with no defense.  
I do think if Gallo can keep his OPS over .800 he can be fine on offense.  Not great but ok.

Since Gallo's OPS has been in the mid 600's since April, that kind of answers the question, say thank you for April and good luck finding another organization.

[karcherd]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

When and IF, if the rookies are good enough they will be called up without replacing an injury.

They are not good enough and turning the Bigs into a quasi-AAA class room is not intelligent.

Come next year, it will be interesting to see what pans out without first  screwing with rookies minds  by throwing them against a level of play  still outside their scope.

 

What Cincinatti did with De La Cruz is an extreme rarity nowadays.

What about McLain, Steer, Benson, it seems to be working for the Reds.  And what about the Orioles who started the process of bringing up their prospects last year.  And we do not know if Wallner and Larnach are not good enough.  Give them a half season, quit yanking them back and forth.  Will their production really be less than Gallo's or Kepler's, I doubt it and they have more upside.  Provide some spark to this team.  Who were the guys still hustling at the end today, Kiriloff and Julien while Lopez sat on the mound and almost got Kiriloff run over.

[Cap'n Piranha]

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Just say “no” to rebuilds!

but it is time to change the GM and Manager, at least Levine, and Rocco need to go. They clearly don’t have an answer for the frustratingly awful hitting.

I’d rather commit to a rebuild now, and return to competitiveness in 2026 than keep my head in the sand, go nowhere the next 3 seasons, and have to start the rebuild anyways in 2027.  The Twins do not have the payroll to spend their way out of this hole, and I see nothing in the minors that suggests a 6-8 player strong wave of high-level talent is about to hit.  Trade Gray, Maeda, Jax, Kepler, Gallo, and Polanco now, and get someone other than Falvine in the off-season.  Might I suggest individuals from the TB and LAD organizations?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

20 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

I’d rather commit to a rebuild now, and return to competitiveness in 2026 than keep my head in the sand, go nowhere the next 3 seasons, and have to start the rebuild anyways in 2027.  The Twins do not have the payroll to spend their way out of this hole, and I see nothing in the minors that suggests a 6-8 player strong wave of high-level talent is about to hit.  Trade Gray, Maeda, Jax, Kepler, Gallo, and Polanco now, and get someone other than Falvine in the off-season.  Might I suggest individuals from the TB and LAD organizations?

How did the rebuild work for Pittsburgh, Detroit, KC? Rebuilds in baseball take longer than 3 years. Drafted players usually take 5-6 years to reach the MLB

Why would you want Falvine to make any trades if you want them fired this off-season? Aren’t they incompetent?

[Reptevia]

I agree with most of this, but moving Kepler to CF would be a disaster. He already looks, most days, like he doesn’t want to be here. Not running out balls, terrible play on the base paths and league average Defense overall. If he’s put in a position by force, he’ll probably be even worse. Time to try to trade or DFA Kepler and Gallo. Buxton should be on the DL if he can’t play. 

[RpR]

4 hours ago, karcherd said:

What about McLain, Steer, Benson, it seems to be working for the Reds.  And what about the Orioles who started the process of bringing up their prospects last year.  And we do not know if Wallner and Larnach are not good enough.  Give them a half season, quit yanking them back and forth.  Will their production really be less than Gallo's or Kepler's, I doubt it and they have more upside.  Provide some spark to this team.  Who were the guys still hustling at the end today, Kiriloff and Julien while Lopez sat on the mound and almost got Kiriloff run over.

What other tems do has zero to do with the Twins system.

[VivaBomboRivera!]

Quote

The second-place Minnesota Twins head into the All-Star break with a broken offense that shows no signs of being repaired. 

The Twins remain magnetically attracted to the .500 mark, and with each passing week it gets harder to believe they're capable of creating any distance from it...

Quote

... Any illusions that a closed-door meeting was going to magically cure what ailed the Twins offense were quickly shattered, as the next 10 days yielded a familiar pattern: occasional modest run-scoring outbursts, heavily outweighed by droughts of emptiness and overmatched at-bats resulting in frustrating losses, with pitchers ... hung out to dry.

Statistically, through the loss on the 8th, the team's performance showed marked improvement, resulting in a 5 - 3 record that could be regarded as a new beginning on the season. The humiliating loss on the last day before the All Star Break erased most of those gains in one fell swoop (assisted by the loss on the 7th).

Nine games is still a small sample size, but the best that can be said for the club's play since since that meeting is that the jury is still out.  If they continue on this pace they are headed for an 84-win season, and a lot of 'splainin' to do. 

 

[Doctor Wu]

I'm sure many of us are salivating at the prospect of facing the lowly Oakland A's right after the break, but I'm already thinking that we are walking into an ambush! Please, please, please, don't take the A's too lightly. Even Rooker is starting to hit better again lately. 

[Blyleven2011]

Week in reverse  ...

Win 3 and lose 3 , will hover  around 500 for the remainder of the season  and finish below 500 and for 3 seasons in arow the window of opportunity has been wasted ...

For years we have had no pitching , now we have the pitching but no hitting , hard to believe the lineup will turn it around in the second half and be contenders  ...

We've seen 80 plus games , they are who they are unless some changes are made in their philosophy of baseball   ....

I don't think the FO really has a plan anymore  because the lineup definitely doesn't show like it has a plan ...

Another week in reverse and more to come  , a 15-2 loss going into the break just killed any momentum  ....

[Blyleven2011]

40 minutes ago, Doctor Wu said:

I'm sure many of us are salivating at the prospect of facing the lowly Oakland A's right after the break, but I'm already thinking that we are walking into an ambush! Please, please, please, don't take the A's too lightly. Even Rooker is starting to hit better again lately. 

Push overs usually do ambush us ...

[HokieRif]

I’ve got nothing to add to what has already been said… except Im sick of the Popkins thread

Edited July 10, 2023 by Richie the Rally Goat
Taste in meme

[Peter]

What a horrible way to go into break-as provus said it’s embarrassing-you have to think him/gladden/bremer and Perkins were dropping f bombs when not on air after yesterday. Definitely need to sweep A’s at no worse split with Seattle to open 2nd half. It could be way worse but after yesterday not so sure.