Pablo Lopez is Better than His ERA

3 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I've always liked Lopez. I hope some of the issue so far is getting adjusted to the move, along with pretty bad defense behind him. BTW, at the beginning of the season wasn't the team expected be a top half defensive team? And what about an outfield that was supposed to be one of the best?

MAT and Kepler have both been as advertised defensively. Joey Gallo and Willi Castro have been below average defenders in the outfield this season according to OAA. 

Buxton not playing any outfield has a lot to do with that as well. 

4 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Come on - next we will find out that the Twins are better than their record.  Performance and results are what I care about.  And Lopez after the first month has been no better than a #4 or 5 starter.

Evaluating performance through strikeouts as soft contact is looking at results. It's just results on a per batter basis instead of a per game basis and therefore giving us a much larger sample to look at.

9 minutes ago, OvertheHill said:

Thanks for the deep dive Ted. It helps to confirm what I'm thinking when I'm watching him pitch, mainly, that he's mostly doing a good job out there. Looks the part, anyway.

 

Curious - if the defense behind him isn't really helping lately, how do we expect that to change for the better? Castro, who I like for flexibility and energy on the base paths, doesn't project to be above average at any position. Julien is a work in progress, and whoever replaces Kepler (eventually) likely won't be a better fielder.

Based on the current roster construction I don't see a clear path to better defense other than unprecedented improvements from a couple players.

Gallo has been unexpectedly underwhelming defensively so far this year (-2 OAA) so maybe there's a chance that's just variance and his metrics improve. 

8 minutes ago, rusty boots said:

So what you're saying is Lopez is not the guy from his first 5 starts (which he was paid for) but he's actually closer to his other 105 starts in the MLB as a 4-5? That's crazy!

If you think 17 million per is top tier starter money I'm not sure what to tell you.

He's significantly changed his pitch arsenal from when he was with the Marlins, he's striking out hitters at elite levels while maintaining low walk and home run rates. 

Again, the point of the piece is that his ERA will likely come down closer to pitchers that he performs similarly to in per batter metrics.

7 minutes ago, twinzcynic said:

I too don't care about actual runs! I also don't care that (given his prior history and the Twin's recent history with similar pitchers) he will likely be injured for a large chunk of time with a year or so. 

Also, I just read an article on here that Pagan is an asset. I totally agree! This front office can't do anything wrong! 

Can I write for Twins Daily now?

Yes

12 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Have to agree - he’s probably been behind Ober. But still very solid. 

I like him and he’s a really good pitcher. But, assuming health for both players, he’s not as valuable - both overall and specifically/more importantly to this Twin’s ball club/franchise.

Not sure I'd go that far, but Ober has been good this season. My concern with Ober is it's tough to be an extreme fly ball pitcher and maintain as low of a HR/FB% as he is. If that number creeps toward league average at all his number could see significant regression. Low walk totals help a lot but it's something to monitor. 

Also, we probably shouldn't assume health for any pitcher, but Ober in particular has had a real tough time with injuries. 

4 minutes ago, rusty boots said:

Ok Ted

Glad I could help 

4 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

So don't know how the measurements are. But show the results from that 28-32 pitch inning that Lopez seems to have every start. I'll wager those innings tell a different story. He is exactly what he was in Miami. A .500 pitcher who the only real difference I can see is he has mastered the "sweeper"

The difference between Marlins Pablo Lopez and this year is he's been able to greatly increase his K% while simultaneously keeping his career HR/FB% and BB% the same. He's also allowing a lot less hard contact and added almost 2 MPH on his fastball.

xwOBA in 2022 was .301 versus .279 this season and his xERA was 3.75 in 2022 versus 3.11 this year.

The swing and miss and quality of contact numbers he currently has are representative of a pitcher with a ERA in the low 3s rather than mid 4s. Expect the ERA to come down if he continues this level of pitching. 

1 minute ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Sorry, I meant as valuable as Arraez. I made the edit above. 
 

Having said that, it’s an interesting question of whether one would trade Ober for Lopez straight up (considering cost of course).  

We don't have any insight on internal matters like clubhouse impact or leadership, however there seems to be a consensus among both Twins and Marlins reporters that Pablo is a fantastic person, much like Arraez is. Which isn't the best indication of things but also all we have to use. 

Also interesting, Arraez is at 2.7 fWAR this season and Lopez is at 2.2. 

As for Ober vs. Lopez, personally, Lopez is probably two tiers ahead of Ober for me, even if we're factoring money. 

9 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

First I like Lopez even though I don't like the trade.  He's not an ace but still good.  Second I agree that wins and losses are the most important team stat that us reflected on all players performance.  It also just drives me nuts how people invent and twist around stats to make a player appear much better than he is or much worse for those Aaraez haters.  That's like saying since the Twins are in first place, even with a sub 500 record,  that they are a first place team.  Come on!  The Twins are what they are.  A very boring 500 team that is stagnant as it relies and waits on their oft-faltering veterans.

I'm not sure how this pertains to anything I wrote, but the intention wasn't to say the Twins are more than what they are or to discount anything Luis Arraez has done this year. 

Just now, Schmoeman5 said:

But you're doing an overall measurement.  And I know his swing and miss rate, whiff rate. I get all that. But those are cumulative results. What you're not factoring in is the OBI. The one innining he falls off the rails. And they're as regular as a sunrise. 

I did mention that his LOB% is a lot lower than what is has been throughout his career. I think those "blowup" innings are what you're referring to when there's a walk, then a couple bleeders and bloops and all of a sudden there's 2 runs on the board. 

Personally I tend to chalk those up to variance, I don't think anything changes with Pablo in those innings, just some batted balls that find grass. I think those generally even out over time.

Aaron Nola is having the same thing happen to him right now too. He doesn't get worse for one inning, sometimes baseball just does its thing. 

2 minutes ago, danielp19653 said:

Isn't this the same argument that's been made for Pagan the last two years and Kepler the last 3 years? At what point do we accept that some people will never play as well as their advanced analytics suggest? Some people just have some issue that undermines it, Kepler hits a lot of balls hard straight up or down which wrecks his stats, Pagan can't help himself but to throw a pitch down the middle whenever a game is close, Lopez can't help but randomly implode for an inning every game or two. Not saying he's bad or the contract is anything that should be a pain point, but maybe we should stop trying to suggest that everyone is magically going to improve and they simply are what they are.

This isn't the same as Kepler or Pagan I don't think.

As far as I understand, Pagan's case has never been results based, it's always been a stuff+ projection. Looking at Pagan's fastball IVB it ranks among the elite in baseball, but hardhit% and BB% have been problems for Pagan.

Kepler has never had consistently good hardhit% or barrel%, he doesn't strike out and takes walks but doesn't have a very good batted ball distribution, which you already referred to, and his avg EV aren't great, they're only slightly above average. 

The reason for Lopez optimism are that he's improved on his K% and whiff%, his BB% and HR/FB% are the same, and his xwOBA and his wOBA are both career bests. When I see things that tend to be stable year over year improving and things that are volatile like ERA and LOB% are career worsts,  I interpret that as those numbers are more likely to change since year over year studies show those are more likely to change.