Byron Buxton is Just a Right-Handed Max Kepler Right Now

[Matthew Trueblood]

Unfortunately, it’s only fair to point out that, right now, Byron Buxton is no more helpful than his longtime teammate.

Image courtesy of © Jonathan Hui-USA TODAY Sports

For weeks now, Twins fans have clamored for the team to cut ties with Max Kepler. At age 30, and with only a team option remaining on the team-friendly extension he signed several years ago, Kepler is expendable. Fans are right not to consider him valuable, at the moment. Unfortunately, it’s only fair to point out that Byron Buxton is no more helpful than his longtime teammate.

If this seems melodramatic, it’s only because Buxton’s hot streaks can be so volcanic that they disguise the true depths to which he plunges during cold streaks. In his first four games back from the injured list, he’s 0-16, with ten strikeouts. Lest you think it’s just rust that needs shaking off, though, Buxton is hitting just .149/.289/.267 since May 1. The culprit for these long struggles is related to the fact that he was playing through chronic injury, even before being sidelined due to his ribs, but that doesn’t mean that it will magically be ameliorated, even by time and rest.

No, the problem here is that Buxton is genuinely becoming a right-handed analog of Kepler. Since the start of 2022, he has a .248 batting average on balls in play. This is the statistic that best captures what makes Kepler tantalizing and maddening. For years, fans have (incorrectly) expected Kepler’s BABIP to stabilize and regress toward the league’s average figure, near .300, but Kepler’s approach and his swing path don’t lend themselves to the skill that is BABIP. He runs extremely low numbers in that category not due to bad luck or defensive alignments, but because of the way he swings and the pitches at which he chooses to do so.

The very same set of choices underpin Buxton’s game, at this point in his career. He’s a dead-pull, fly ball hitter, but more importantly, he’s a hitter focused on making contact far in front of home plate. He’s not merely quick to the ball in a way that naturally leads to pulling it; he’s built a swing designed to intercept the ball after the bat has passed the point of being parallel with the front of home plate, and well before the ball actually gets to the plate. You can see it when looking at his swings in some key situations. 

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[rwilfong86]

Painful comparison but not untrue. 

[TwinkieFan4life]

Kepler can play defense at a reasonably high level.  Doesn't this make him significantly more valuable than Buxton, who "physically can't" play the field?

[MABB1959]

Two things that happened yesterday.  First was the update on his non-return or mostly likely will never play CF again.  Even though the news is more than devastating it is about time they gave the fans an update so we no longer have to speculate.  I know it is not much but he did get a couple hits and RBI's yesterday.  Unfortunately with the non-trade he will be the DH for a long time.  This will most likely lower the chances of winning games, the Division or a play-off run.  I guess it is what it is.  I am so happy they let us know.

[roger]

No, because Max plays right field very well and is out there most of the time.  Although will agree most is becoming less due to his bat.

Today's Strib also had a better explanation of why Buxton isn't in center.  Watching the game last night and hearing Rocco's comments about his not being physically able to play outfield I kept wondering, why?  If he can hit and run the bases, why can't he play outfield.  Turns out the paper explains the daily wear and tear on his legs from running around out there every day would put him back on the IL.  

As for above comments about his future, expect no one knows if that will be for this year or the rest of his career?

[Blyleven2011]

I would not compare Buxton to Kepler  , as stated in another post Kepler can play defense  and Buxton is just a DH  ....

If your going to compare his offense  right now I would put him in a class of Sano  , he had terrible number's and defense was shabby  ...

This is painful to write as Buxton has so much talent that he never fully tapped into but showed some flashes  ...

[mikelink45]

This was an excellent essay and I totally agree with you. In fact, I think that Buxton may be our most valuable trade asset. If we take him out of the lineup, what does it do? He doesn't play in the field so we don't have to concern ourselves with that aspect. So if it's bat is not producing we can find someone else to be DH. It's really a shame because we all know is potential but after all these years I don't project him to be a full-time center fielder or a better who can have both average and power. Like gallo he is a strikeout machine. 

[USAFChief]

2 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

 I think that Buxton may be our most valuable trade asset. 

??

 

Who is trading for him? Would you?

[John Belinski]

The Twins knew he had a injury history, but still signed him to a big contract. I do not know who is worse our front office or our manager, but it appears we will not have a winning team until they are replaced.

[mikelink45]

8 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

??

 

Who is trading for him? Would you?

No, but there are other smart front offices like ours who will see the potential and say I think we should grab him. 

[Johnny Ringo]

The only way Buxton is tradable for literally anything ( a middling A prospect, a GroupOn coupon) is for the Twins to eat $95  million of his contract.  The only reason the Twins continue to torture us with Kepler if because of the $4 million due him.

If Buxton is too unhealthy to play any center then he should be put on the IL and the Twins should rotate through the DH spot with Wallner, Larnach, etc. 

Kepler needs to be released. The bullpen desperately needs help.  

The season can be salvaged if the FO has the will.

There is not one shred of evidence that they do. 

 

 

[ValleySpringsFan]

Buxton taking three called strikes on Sunday is another symptom of a hitter who has lost his way. Advice from others has not helped. I hope he figures something out soon for everyone's sake. Thanks for an excellent article.

[dogsday]

Quote

The very same set of choices underpin Buxton’s game, at this point in his career. He’s a dead-pull, fly ball hitter, but more importantly, he’s a hitter focused on making contact far in front of home plate. He’s not merely quick to the ball in a way that naturally leads to pulling it; he’s built a swing designed to intercept the ball after the bat has passed the point of being parallel with the front of home plate, and well before the ball actually gets to the plate. 

In theory a hitting coach is there to help a player understand and change this. If our hitting coaches or players can't do that, one or both need to be replaced. 

[Puckett34]

Its difficult to be a Buxton apologist these days.  2-3 last night was nice though.

[TopGunn#22]

To me, it's still unclear if his not playing CF was for the rest of THIS season or the rest of his career.  I'd like a clarification.  I'm not sure how much rest he would need or how beneficial it would be.  A couple hits last night was nice, but certainly not to be expected very much in the future.  He's a black hole in our lineup.  I think they should put him on the IL and see what a month of rest would do.  Does he need further surgery?  Do it now and try your best to get him healthy.  Is it going to be a chronic pain and essentially not fixable?  Find a trading partner...ANY trading partner, cut the cord and move on.  Our big decision a couple of years ago was Buxton or Berrios, who do we keep??  We had endless and interesting discussion on TD about this.  Turns out neither were worth keeping.  

[HokieRif]

Agree that Buck is no more helpful than Kepler.  He's less helpful.  Kepler can at least play the field.

[HokieRif]

43 minutes ago, Puckett34 said:

Its difficult to be a Buxton apologist these days.  2-3 last night was nice though.

As an individual sample I agree.  Still, he's in a horrible slump.  Going back to the Toronto series in March he's 3-37, with 3 BBs, and 17 Ks.

[Florida Flash]

12 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

Two things that happened yesterday.  First was the update on his non-return or mostly likely will never play CF again.  Even though the news is more than devastating it is about time they gave the fans an update so we no longer have to speculate.  I know it is not much but he did get a couple hits and RBI's yesterday.  Unfortunately with the non-trade he will be the DH for a long time.  This will most likely lower the chances of winning games, the Division or a play-off run.  I guess it is what it is.  I am so happy they let us know.

Trade? I dont think anyone would want to pick up that salary for the length of time it is based on his production....or lack thereof.

[saviking]

I've seen Buck in these pull happy slumps many times and the only way he gets out of them is waiting on the pitch longer and trying to hit it to right center field. 

I call it bi-polar disorder. When he's off his meds he hits terrible ..

[HokieRif]

7 minutes ago, Florida Flash said:

Trade? I dont think anyone would want to pick up that salary for the length of time it is based on his production....or lack thereof.

There's always someone out there that's willing to deal.  I just did a quick glance at the MLB-wide stats and there's only maybe 6 teams that have a solid DH player that they can lean on for the season.  If someone is in a risk-taking position and willing to roll the dice, Buck could find a home as long as he elects to waive the no-trade.

[In My La Z boy]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

No, but there are other smart front offices like ours who will see the potential and say I think we should grab him. 

Braves. Buxton is from there. He has a full no trade. This would be a huge move for Atlanta. They are already very good, wouldn't have to give much, and can easily take on salary. We all know Byron is way underpaid if he does what he can do. If I'm the Braves, I'm cherry picking him right now. How much lower can you buy on Byron than now? 

[USNMCPO]

3 hours ago, TwinkieFan4life said:

Kepler can play defense at a reasonably high level.  Doesn't this make him significantly more valuable than Buxton, who "physically can't" play the field?

Not sure Kepler is still playing defense at even an average level. Maybe his head is too screwed up by his hitting to let his defense shine.

[hitterscount]

I’m for a major lockout when the next player union contract/agreement negotiations are being bargained. Guaranteed contracts are a joke. Players should get “their” money in their signing bonus and have to earn the rest contract $$ on the field. If you can’t perform due to injury or regression the team should be able to release the underperforming player. Since there is no hard salary cap in MLB this would free up money to release guys like Buxton, Kepler, Gallo, and Polanco and move on. The front office did a poor job of constructing this team, at least with everyday and BP players. Now we are stuck with a crap manager and a crappier team for the foreseeable future.

[Parfigliano]

3 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

This was an excellent essay and I totally agree with you. In fact, I think that Buxton may be our most valuable trade asset. If we take him out of the lineup, what does it do? He doesn't play in the field so we don't have to concern ourselves with that aspect. So if it's bat is not producing we can find someone else to be DH. It's really a shame because we all know is potential but after all these years I don't project him to be a full-time center fielder or a better who can have both average and power. Like gallo he is a strikeout machine. 

No one is trading for Buxton.  He is physically unable to play D at any position and can not hit.  He is Sano.

[jimbo92107]

 Tragically, Byron Buxton's career is going to wind up as one of those huge, "what if" careers. What if Buxton had just a few fully healthy seasons? What if he had ten healthy seasons? What would his numbers look like? With his speed, power and arm, he would be a shoe in for Hall of Fame. 

As things are now, that match was lit, but the rocket barely sputtered on the pad. League average was below his estimated floor, yet  now we'd just about kill for average hitting from the super-talented center fielder. The comp with Kepler fits sadly well. Pulled grounders and strikeouts. 

Needless to say, having another rally killer in the lineup won't help the team will many games. Having a weak hitter in the DH spot is even worse. 

[MABB1959]

2 hours ago, Florida Flash said:

Trade? I dont think anyone would want to pick up that salary for the length of time it is based on his production....or lack thereof.

Agree!

[MGM4706]

Not only can't Buxton play CF but when he does get on he is not even stealing bases. Good article but it misses a key point! That is, what in the heck is the Hitting Coach doing? He has not fixed one hitter!! Buxton, Kepler, Larnach, Gallo, Miranda, Correa, Taylor. Not one improvement!?

[In My La Z boy]

22 minutes ago, MGM4706 said:

Not only can't Buxton play CF but when he does get on he is not even stealing bases. Good article but it misses a key point! That is, what in the heck is the Hitting Coach doing? He has not fixed one hitter!! Buxton, Kepler, Larnach, Gallo, Miranda, Correa, Taylor. Not one improvement!?

We haven't been the same since James Rowson left for Miami. We should look to give the Padres a bag of balls and get Nelson Cruz back here as our hitting coach immediately - and then track down Yadier Molina and beg him to be our manager. We can't fire 26 players. Seems we're close to someone needing to get fired here. 

[Fritzderkat]

The comparison with Mickey Mantle does Buxton no favors.

[Aggies7]

Maybe he’ll do us a solid and restructure his contract to one more fitting of a very one dimensional player