Jorge Polanco’s Mounting Injury Concerns and Looming Option

[Cody Christie]

Jorge Polanco was able to avoid the injured list early in his career, but that trend has declined in recent years. Are the Twins concerned about his mounting injuries? What does that mean for his option for 2024?

Image courtesy of Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Jorge Polanco is one of the longest-tenured Twins players and has been critical to the club’s success in recent years. According to fWAR, Polanco ranks third on the team since the start of the 2018 season behind Byron Buxton and Max Kepler. His WAR doesn’t tell the entire story of the value he provides to the Twins. Since 2018, his 6.23 WPA is nearly two wins higher than any other qualified hitter for Minnesota. He is an underrated player for the club and continues to provide value when he is healthy. 

Unfortunately, injury concerns have started to impact Polanco’s career. His reputation is of a player that avoids the injury list by playing through pain, even if it means a decline in his on-field performance. Polanco dealt with ankle issues in multiple seasons but never went on the IL. In 2019, he was an All-Star during the first half, but his OPS dropped by nearly 100 points in the season’s second half while dealing with ankle concerns. During the 2020 season, his swing was never right at the plate, and he struggled to a .606 OPS in the shortened season. Both times he underwent ankle surgery during the offseason. 

On June 16, 2022, Polanco went on the injured list for the first time in his career after playing over 700 games at the big-league level. Since then, he has been limited to 76 games and has been on the IL five times. There was a delayed start to his 2023 season because he was still dealing with knee soreness that bothered him during the 2022 campaign. Minnesota can turn second base over to Edouard Julien in Polanco’s absence, but it’s concerning how limited Polanco has been over the last two seasons. 

Polanco is under team control for two more seasons, but the Twins must decide on the value associated with his options. For 2024, Minnesota can bring Polanco back for $10.5 million, which he has been more than worth over the last five full seasons. Even with missing time during the 2022 season, FanGraphs pegged his value at over $14.5 million. His option for the 2025 season is $12 million, with escalators tied to All-Star appearances and Gold Glove/Silver Slugger awards. Both option years are team friendly if Polanco can play over 100 games. 

The Twins may also consider trading Polanco at some point next winter. He would obviously need to be healthier through the remainder of the 2023 season, but he certainly provides value when on the field. Minnesota has multiple prospects that can fit into the team’s long-term plans at second base, including Edouard Julien, Brooks Lee, and Austin Martin. There is also a possibility that Royce Lewis can slide over to second base if/when Jose Miranda is ready to rejoin the big-league club. Second base is one of the easier defensive positions to fill, and the Twins can use a young bat to take Polanco’s place. 

Minnesota’s front office has recently struggled to part ways with veteran players. Players like Max Kepler and Emilio Pagan have lingered on the Twins’ roster, hoping to find a way to turn their slumping performances around. Polanco is not in the same category as those players, but the team might want to avoid a long goodbye and part ways with him before his performance declines. 

Who do you think will be the Twins starting second baseman in 2024? Does Polanco have a role on this club beyond 2023? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[MABB1959]

As a fan, I would hate to see him go but they need to start doing what is good for the team and not turn into another Kepler frustration. 

IMO they seem to have a hard time parting with struggling players but many fan favorites have been traded and went on to do well.  The Eddy's were let go, Berrios of course our love for Arraez and seeing him turn into a top player.  

 

 

 

 

[Linus]

Tough call. When healthy he is far better than any other potential replacement. I also think it’s not accurate to say we have Lee Julien and Martin to take his place. Julien is a dh Martin completely unproven and Lee still needs development. 

[Whitey333]

Yes it's time to move on from Polanco.  He's been very good here but hus injuries have mounted the past couple of seasons.  But the Twins seem to have this thing about sticking with veterans too long and being known as a given for injured players to just continually rehab and collect a big league paycheck.  Kepler and Pagan need to go and soon as well.  It appears they are just taking up space and may be blocking the development of younger players.  Polanco has been one of my fave Twins the past few seasons.  But tge writing is in the wall.

[Brandon27]

Trade him 

[jorgenswest]

I am not confident the Julien is a major league 2B. Is it possible he moves to 1B with Kirilloff in RF for 2024?

They still have a lot of depth in Castro , Farmer and Gordon backed up by Martin and Lee. Miranda gives hope that Lewis is a possibility also. That is enough depth to let Polanco go as they did Rosario a few years back.

 

[saviking]

We need a competitive rebuild 😜

[chpettit19]

18 minutes ago, Linus said:

Tough call. When healthy he is far better than any other potential replacement. I also think it’s not accurate to say we have Lee Julien and Martin to take his place. Julien is a dh Martin completely unproven and Lee still needs development. 

This is where I'm at, too. People talk like it's just a given that any of these young guys are going to step in and be 4 (nearly 5) win players (what Polanco has been since 2019). I'm not sold at all on that. But if he can't stay healthy then he's not a 4 win player (as seen by him being a 3 win player last year). It's a really tough spot. One of the few truly tough decisions this front office has to make if he comes back healthy, and mashing again.

[Riverbrian]

IMO... Picking up his option next year is a no brainer. 

Polanco is not Kepler... Not even close. 

This team needs offense and Polanco provides offense and has pretty consistently over the years. Kepler has not provided offense over the years. 

I understand that Julien looks good, I understand that Lee and Martin and Miranda are waiting in the wings at the moment but I have said this many many many times and I will say it many many many times in the future. It's Ok to have multiple players on the roster who can perform even if they play the same position. There is plenty of playing time for anyone who is performing. We don't need to start throwing players away. 

You cull from the bottom not from the top. 

Now if... someone offers an incredible trade that makes the team even better... OK. But we certainly shouldn't be the team looking for the exit sign. 

[Major League Ready]

I am in the tough call camp.  I would not rely on any of the potential replacements to be his equal.  I have modest confidence if Lewis were to be the replacement.  It comes down to return for me.  Trading him at the deadline this year would require a nice return package.  We can always revisit this next year.

There is the depth argument.  The replacements are all players that could contribute.  If we can get a good return, building from within is ideal.  That's how Tampa has been putting a great product on the field.

[arby58]

42 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

IMO they seem to have a hard time parting with struggling players but many fan favorites have been traded and went on to do well.  The Eddy's were let go, Berrios of course our love for Arraez and seeing him turn into a top player.  

 

 

 

 

Judging the Arraez trade after a few months is premature. We were all sad to see Nelson Cruz go, but the Twins got Joe Ryan for a few months of him (can't complain about that one). I was sad to see Eduardo Escobar go too - he was a fan favorite. The pain subsided when Jhoan Duran turned into one of the best closers in baseball. Yes, the Twins lost the Presley trade, but you can't win them all. 

Berrios hasn't exactly tore up baseball since leaving the Twins. He was 12-7 with a 5.23 ERA and 1.42 WHIP last year. This year is better, at 6-4, 3.61 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, but that would still slot around 3 or 4 in terms of performance of Twins starting pitchers this year.

Eddie Rosario was maddingly inconsistent - and that continues to date. He had a pedestrian 2020 with Cleveland (.685 OPS, which is Kepler-like without the defense) before catching fire latter half of the year with Atlanta (.903 OPS) and was great in the play-offs. Then he had a really crappy last year (.587 OPS) and is just average this year. Who knows with him? Also, for the Kepler haters, his career WAR is 17.1  in 7 full seasons and Rosario's is 10.7 in 8 full seasons.

[TopGunn#22]

Polanco's BBTV is 36.10.  He's not a 4-5 win player anymore.  His team friendly contract is also a plus.  Who has needs at 2B?  The Brewers, Padres and Mariners come to mind.  36.10 with 2 years of a team friendly contract could bring a pretty decent asset to the Twins.  Explore a trade.  See what is possible.  Make a trade if it makes sense.  

[Otaknam]

I believe they will bring him back for 2024 because he has been a clutch player both this year and throughout his career. I don’t think they are ready to anoint Julien as heir apparent at second, and Lee is still playing at Double A. So Polanco is still the best option.

[tony&rodney]

Polanco has been the Twins best player, but the injuries have begun to take a toll. When healthy he is still a very good hitter and plays a decent second base. The performances when Jorge plays with the injuries are not good. His swing changes and the defensive range is diminished when he plays through the limiting hurts. Thus, Polanco is a bit of an enigma for planning purposes. When healthy, there is no one better to play second base. It is difficult to watch both Polanco and Buxton when they are clearly hurting and playing in a reduced physical capacity. He stays until someone totally forces their way into the lineup. The Twins way be wondering how other teams value Polanco and it seems unknown to me.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

This will all come down to what the Twins believe his injury situation will be going forward. 

A healthy Polanco is a borderline all-star every year.  He is relatively inexpensive, even if they only get 100 games out of him.  I do not see the Twins making any knee-jerk moves here.

[farmerguychris]

I think we have to move on.  Next year neither Kepler, nor Polanco will be on this team as we have younger (and cheaper) options available.  This is not unique to us, most teams have these same decisions to make as talent ages and new talent emerges.  We have some good talent waiting in the wings that need a place to play.

 

[Jeff K]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

I am not confident the Julien is a major league 2B. Is it possible he moves to 1B with Kirilloff in RF for 2024?

They still have a lot of depth in Castro , Farmer and Gordon backed up by Martin and Lee. Miranda gives hope that Lewis is a possibility also. That is enough depth to let Polanco go as they did Rosario a few years back.

 

I'm a big fan of Polanco's.  I think with the depth and backlog of youth, the Twins can trade Polanco from a position of strength and gain a valuable piece; whereas Kepler is untradeable.  The Twins should be erring on the side of enabling their youth.

[Mike Sixel]

Big fan, but I'd trade him at the deadline. It might not work out great this year, but I have no doubt they can fill the position next year. I'd just put Julien there and hope there aren't a lot of opportunities for him .....

Unless you want to put Lewis or Farmer (late innings for sure with the lead) there and put Farmer or Miranda at 3B (Lee isn't ready).

There is no guarantee that any of the options (Lewis, Lee, Martin, Julien, Severino......et. al.) will work, but, IMO, it is better to move on too soon, than too late. If they can get a top prospect for him, plus a flyer? I do that all day long and roll the dice that one of those guys is a good 2B next year.

[PatPfund]

A healthy Polanco is an asset to the team, and a good potential trade chip. But he hasn't been able to stay on the field for almost a year now, and a constantly hurt Polanco is not an asset to the team, and is untradeable (and the clock is ticking on the trade deadline if he is to prove himself an asset).

If Jorge can't get healthy, I can't see him back with the Twins next year. Julien, Lewis, and Kirilloff are already among the team leaders in OPS, and all are still on their way up with other possible replacements on the way.

[FlyingFinn]

2024 - Because of injuries, I don't see Polanco on the Twins. I think it will be Julien with Farmer taking AB's against lh's and replacing Julien on D late in games. Julien will have the same opportunity as Miranda had this year. If he doesn't get it done, one of Martin or Lee will probably be ready to overtake him at 2B. Having the oft injured Buxton doesn't give the Twins a chance to have another potentially oft injured player like Polanco (3 IL stints already this year) on the roster.

[stringer bell]

Agree that injuries are really the key for Polanco. To me, he seems like an "old" almost 30 year old. He definitely seems like he is more pull-happy from both halves of the plate. The increased homers pretty much evens out less contact. He's still a really good guy to have in the box with the game on the line. 

If the Twins can get good value, I think they need to make a move to trade him. They have options with high ceilings to replace him, but there are no guarantees. 

[JD-TWINS]

If he hits .270 & drives in 35-40 runs from July - September, he’ll be back in ‘24. If he can’t get on the field he isn’t worth anything on our roster nor in trade - zero. Therefore, we don’t extend the option unless he’s solid most of the remainder this year. He’s great, affordable depth if he can keep his legs healthy.

We have Lee with Julien as the prime possibilities for 2B next year and we’ll have Gordon back & healthy along with Farmer under contract through ‘24.

I don’t want to be terribly negative but I don’t see Miranda back on this roster in ‘23 nor going forward. Lewis is the fixture at 3B.

Kepler - Miranda - Pagan - Polanco can potentially all go at the deadline just to create space on the 40 man going forward. Obviously, we want to try and get a couple prospects but we’re asking teams to take on $$$ w/o a lot of upside. (if we’re winning) Organization is going to have a hard time, in season, letting Polanco & Kepler go just because of potential team chemistry upset.

[JD-TWINS]

‘24 roster without Polanco:

Julien/Lee - Farmer - CC - Lewis - Kirilloff

Larnach - Walner - Taylor - Gordon/Castro -New high $$ Player

Buxton

Vazquez - Jeffers

No Polanco - Kepler - Gallo - Solano …….save $34 Million for FA outfielder - relief pitcher - extend Gray.

(Lee may free up the possibility to trade Julien - Miranda?)

Castro may push Gordon to the trade block?…..,,his defensive flexibility and base running are both better than Gordon……hope he can maintain! Am Nick Gordon’s biggest fan but Castro has been very effective.

Catcher prospect for Julien may be worthwhile?…….Vazquez may not make it 2 more years?

[KBJ1]

Agreed that a healthy Polanco is a borderline All Star and asset to the Twins. I also don't see anybody in the system capable of pushing him out.

Moving on from players too early can also come back to bite you.

Since Rosario, we have filled LF with a whole lot of not much.

At least Gallo can field the position,  but he is costing us 1M more and has a career batting Ave 70 points lower than Rosario. Gallo's two more HR a year does not justify this discrepancy. 

With a team batting ave barely over 200 and 10K's a game, No wonder we can't score any runs.

Unless we come up with an All Star 2B, keep Polanco.

[mikelink45]

Time to move on - no team advances by standing still.  Sano, Buxton, Polanco and Kepler were the promise of the future, now that future is no longer feasible.  One by one we say good-bye.  The lack of teams for Sano shows we waited too long.  Kepler is two years past the buy by date.  Polanco has been good, but damaged goods have to be taken off the shelf.  I am even an advocate of getting good value for Buxton and moving forward.  

[darwin22]

5 hours ago, PatPfund said:

A healthy Polanco is an asset to the team, and a good potential trade chip. But he hasn't been able to stay on the field for almost a year now, and a constantly hurt Polanco is not an asset to the team, and is untradeable (and the clock is ticking on the trade deadline if he is to prove himself an asset).

If Jorge can't get healthy, I can't see him back with the Twins next year. Julien, Lewis, and Kirilloff are already among the team leaders in OPS, and all are still on their way up with other possible replacements on the way.

I totally agree with your assessment.  The biggest thing that can't be ignored is the FACT that Polanco has made 5 trips to the IL since June 2022.  As much as I (and many others) like Polanco we can't wish him back into the consistent hitter/ run producer he was.  He has played a grand total of 30 games this season.

My question to you (and others) centers on his "vested" option for 2024.  

Are the Twins mandated to pick up his $10.5m salary if he plays in 100 games? 

If that is the case then Polanco has some work to do.  94 games left to play.  The earliest Polanco can return from IL is June 19, which reduces games remaining to 89.  As a result, if I'm understanding his "vesting option" for 2024---Polanco would have to play in 70 of 89 games (78.7%) for the rest of the season.

What happens with this "vesting option" if Polanco plays in fewer than 100 games?  Can they just walk away from him?

Not saying I'm in support of that--just need some clarification.

[joefish]

If playing an oft-injured Polanco is better than playing his replacement, then I think we are hurting ourselves.

I like Jorge when he is healthy. But i don't remember the last time he was 100%.  Watch him swing. And run.

Him playing injured can't be better than another option.  Like Buxton's situation. Don't put injured players on the field. They hurt the team.

[tony&rodney]

11 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

I am not confident the Julien is a major league 2B

Who are you confident in? Is Royce Lewis an adequate defender? Solano? Gallo? Castro?

The Twins have three really good defensive players: Farmer, Kepler, and Correa. The others are all adequate to varying degrees. Vasquez has 5 errors, Miranda 4, and Correa, Farmer, Solano, and Lewis have 3 errors each. The Twins are just average defensively, which is not a bad thing. When I watch the games I see the other teams defense as similar in almost every series. I'm more concerned about the consistency of the bats.

[D.C Twins]

My heart says keep him, but my brain says trade him or let him go with his mounting injury/age and talent rising beneath him. (but again... it hurts to write this)

[Aerodeliria]

I have an idea. Let's put Julien at 2nd and Polanco can become a DH alongside Buxton. Buxton and Polanco can alternate as DHs and that way they both will have even fewer chances to get injured...