One Intriguing Way the Twins Could Use Their Remaining Money

[Nick Nelson]

Despite all the turmoil, Carlos Correa is widely expected to sign with the Mets, meaning the Twins will have missed out on him along with every other top free agent target. Thus, we're left to wonder how (or if) they'll use up their remaining available payroll dollars.

It's hard to find many realistic and remotely appealing possibilities at this point. But there is one trade scenario I keep circling back to – a high-risk gambit that could transform the top of the Twins rotation.

Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

 

When we put together our Offseason Handbook at the end of last season, we explored a number of trade candidates for the rotation, noting that this has been the front office's preferred avenue for acquiring frontline starters.

Several options were mentioned, with varying levels of feasibility. Among them was Pablo Lopez, whom the Twins reportedly engaged the Marlins about earlier this offseason. Another was Chris Sale, who hasn't been connected to Minnesota officially – to my knowledge – but lurks as a potentially pivotal remaining piece in this offseason's landscape.

As noted in our Handbook writeup on Sale, his Hall of Fame career has taken a sharp detour since turning 30, with his tenure in Boston largely hampered by injuries and frustration. Last year things reached a painful crescendo, when Sale broke his wrist while biking to get lunch as he was recovering from another surgery.

The premise here is that the Red Sox might be motivated to move on, with Sale still owed another $55 million over the next two seasons and Boston's short-term contention hopes in doubt. 

A report in the New York Post in late December indicated that there could be an opening.

"Chris Sale is a pitcher [teams] could look at," wrote Jon Heyman. "The Red Sox told teams early they had no intention to trade Sale, but they’re open to listening on starters now." The "but" there seems to indicate Sale could be among the trade chips they've softened on.

Sale is of course familiar with the Twins, and vice versa. The southpaw has tended to be oddly vulnerable against Minnesota's lineup, with a 3.91 career ERA that far exceeds his 3.03 overall mark.  

But that shouldn't distract anyone from the fact that Sale was among the top 3-to-5 MLB starters in the 2010s, with one of the most dominant track records in history.

From 2013 through 2018 he was a top five Cy Young finisher every single year. He holds the all-time MLB record for best strikeout rate (11.1 K/9), and K-BB ratio (5.33). The tall, lanky, hard-throwing left-hander is a force the likes of which baseball has rarely seen.

Given their current financial situation, the Twins could reasonably take on the remaining two years of Sale's contract at $27.5 million apiece. If they move Max Kepler's salary, they can do it without even raising total payroll for 2023. It's the kind of short-term, high-AAV, big-upside deal the front office loves. Meanwhile, Sale's price tag along with his age and recent health issues should keep the trade cost in check.

There are two key sticking points when it comes to sizing up Sale as a trade target.

The first is those health issues. Sale has thrown a total of 48 ⅓ innings since the 2019 season. He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2020 which cost him most of 2021. Last year brought a barrage of unfortunate (yet unrelated) health woes: a stress fracture in his rib during spring training, a finger fracture suffered on a line drive in July, a wrist fracture suffered on a bike ride in August. 

I'm not saying this pattern of injuries isn't concerning, but it might be less concerning, than – say – recurring forearm or shoulder soreness. And when he's made it to the mound over the last couple seasons, Sale HAS been very effective: 48.1 IP, 3.17 ERA, 10.6 K/9.

A possible silver lining to all the missed time these past three years is that Sale's arm, which accrued 1,600 major-league innings through age 30, has gotten a bit of a respite from all the wear. Maybe that will help him thrive in his mid-30s. Or maybe all of these various injuries are signs of a body breaking down.

That's one thing the Twins would have to contend with in going after Sale. The bigger hurdle is his no-trade clause. We all know the general attitudes among established frontline starting pitchers with regards to Minnesota. They don't want to come here.

Is there any reason to think Sale would feel differently? I guess it feels possible to me. He's familiar with the Midwest and AL Central from his glory days with the White Sox. He could reasonably view the Twins as having a better path to contention right now than the Red Sox. He might also welcome the chance to pitch in a more pitcher-friendly park, under less media scrutiny, as he trends toward free agency at age 35.

How realistic is that? Maybe not very. But I'm running out of realistic scenarios that would involve the Twins spending their available funds and meaningfully improving the team's upside. Acquiring Sale would be an audacious gambit, but one that could result in landing the true veteran ace they so desperately need.

It might be the only remaining path.

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[ashbury]

It's a great idea but I'm not sure the Bosox are the right target.

The challenge is to find an aging veteran who is 1) still good, 2) highly paid, 3) on a not-very-long remaining contract, 4) on a team that isn't under pressure to contend.

Boston can't really wave a white flag for 2023, even if expectations aren't terribly high. Sale otherwise checks the necessary boxes, but I just don't see how discarding someone of value can play with their fan base.

Cubs and Stroman? Not sure what that team's intentions really are.

[JD-TWINS]

The 48 1/3 over last 3 seasons Sale has been available for denotes at least as much risk as seeing if Cueto or Wacha can get guys out for 3 months, early in the year. With depth early we hedge against Ober, Mahle, & Maeda not being ready, so I agree we need a vet starter for depth. Also, lets SWR & Varland & Winder have time to be mentally sharp when plugged in for every 5th day action.

I am willing to take a swing with Sale if we are giving up Kepler - López - Celestino -  etc……..don’t want to trade good youth for this much health risk & $$$. If he can pitch it’s masterful for our staff. 130 innings of Sale at 3.50ERA & 8K/9 would be a really nice add. That’s Sale at career worst numbers.

The depth starter, regardless of who we may acquire or sign from FA, allows Maeda to help in Pen. Sign Fulmer & one of Hand/Chafin, and we are deep all through the staff. Less $ than Sale & a $8 million guy like Wacha or Cueto along with 2 relievers is more attractive.

What brings more value for winning games?

SALE  vs.  FULMER, HAND, CUETO

oh yes, and less risk for our $27 M/year.

ALL FOR Sale & Fulmer & Hand if workable on the $$!!!

[SanoMustGo]

The only place Sale should pitch is slow pitch softball

[Whitey333]

You have got to be kidding.  But then again maybe not.  He would be right up the twins alley.  A nearly washed up pitchers with little playing time the past couple of years.  But that 27 million per year is ridiculous for a guy to play 1 game or so per week.  Plus with Baldellis penchant for yanking starters after 4 or 5 innings, what a total waste of money it would be to invest in Sale.  It's not going to happen nor should it.

[2wins87]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

It's a great idea but I'm not sure the Bosox are the right target.

The challenge is to find an aging veteran who is 1) still good, 2) highly paid, 3) on a not-very-long remaining contract, 4) on a team that isn't under pressure to contend.

Boston can't really wave a white flag for 2023, even if expectations aren't terribly high. Sale otherwise checks the necessary boxes, but I just don't see how discarding someone of value can play with their fan base.

Cubs and Stroman? Not sure what that team's intentions really are.

Yeah, the question left unanswered isn't whether it would be a good fit for the Twins or Sale, but whether it would make any sense for the Sox.

They don't project to be anywhere near the luxury tax threshold and aren't overflowing with starters with more upside.  I don't see why they would agree to a deal where Sale has significantly negative value.  If they got an offer where they also got something of value in return maybe, but that would be a terrible deal for any other team.  So I don't see why they wouldn't just eat the cost and hope he can bounce back rather than giving him up for nothing just to save the money.

[tony&rodney]

Sale doesn't seem likely and would be pretty much outside of the box for Falvey. Let Falvey concentrate on prying loose Edward Cabrera from the Marlins, a gamble worth taking.

[Doctor Gast]

Seems to me as a high risk/ low return situation to me. Just because we have extra money on hand doesn't mean we can throw it away. That's what put Boston in the mess where they are now, much like CO spending money needlessly and when there's a need & opportunity they can't do anything because they are hamstrung.

We got Vazquez (which I like) but we over paid him and I think we could have done better with Narvaez & much cheaper if we had focused on him. Then we got useless Gallo & over paid him. We are going down the same road as CO & BOS. If this trend continues we end up in the same place. Useless players hamstringing our payroll & blocking the path of our prospects. & producing a losing team.

I'm not totally against this idea. For example I'd be for a Marquez trade. Take on his $15MM salary would be a moderate risk with a high return. Marquez would greatly prosper being taken away from CO. & so will we.

[Karbo]

I don't see him coming to the Twins. He really hasn't pitched well here and then there's the Rocco factor.

[Dave Borton]

Don't want to hear this one. Beyond the injury issues, not interested in adding to the clubhouse, someone who cuts up the issued uniform in front of teammates so the team can't wear assigned uniform of the day.

[mike8791]

Got to join the nay chorus here!  Sale(or Wacha, Cueto or any other #4/5-type starter) is not what we need.  With a relatively healthy squad,  we need a young, cost-controlled starter with #1 or 1A potential to pair with Ryan.  Don't forget, 3 of our 5 potential starters' contracts expire after this season.  We've had enough retreads during the Falvey regime to choke a horse.  Guys like Sale, et.al., will not move the needle, I'm afraid.

Finding a young, controllable pitcher will not be easy, but we have the excess personnel, including some minor leaguers,  to put a very enticing package together.  Sure, we might have to cough up one of Lee, Lewis, Martin, or even Miranda, plus one of out top 2 pitching prospects, and one of Kepler, Larnach or Kirillof, but isn't it worth the risk to solidify the top of the rotation for several years?  I would feel much better aboiut contending with a Glasnow, May or even Montas pairing up with Ryan.

[RJA]

Oh boy, let's add another injury prone starter to our staff.  And, as a benefit, this one only costs 27 million a year, and he would only be here for two years.  For heaven's sake, if we are going to spend 27 million on a pitcher, let's get one in free agency where we can lock them in for 3-5 years to provide some stability long term without the need for a trade.  Sorry, I can't support this suggestion.

[USAFChief]

My intriguing idea: take that cash, make a huge pile, douse it with gasoline, light it, and watch it burn.

Neither Nick's idea or mine will help the Twins win, but mine would actually be intriguing. 

[old nurse]

Spend money on twilight players. It did not work in the 90s for Ryan

[Otaknam]

Click bait column that worked on me. There is no chance of Sale coming to the Twins because:

he has a no trade clause; he won’t allow himself to be traded to a non contender like the Twins;  the Twins will not take on his contract his $27 million unless the Red Sox eat half of it. 
Next story……
 

 

[mikelink45]

Fun premise, and he does fit our profile - high potential (of injury that is) who once was good and we know we can fix what ever is wrong. Last time he was good was 2018!  I would have loved the Sale of the pre-2018 years, but sometimes I read TD and Twins reports like I am getting an update on a local hospital.  Can we find someone healthy?

[Stew]

Go after Lopez with everything you've got. We have 15 starters from last year minus Bundy and Archer. We are going to lose to free agency at the end of the year. Why always hange on to players till most of there value is gone. We also have a gluten of infielders and corner outfield. Trade and get a number one starter.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

4 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

spending money needlessly and when there's a need & opportunity they can't do anything because they are hamstrung.

We got Vazquez (which I like) but we over paid him and I think we could have done better with Narvaez & much cheaper if we had focused on him. Then we got useless Gallo & over paid him. We are going down the same road as CO & BOS. If this trend continues we end up in the same place. Useless players hamstringing our payroll & blocking the path of our prospects. & producing a losing team.

 

Doc, You just made the correct diagnosis. I contend that the conservative treatment is to go with the young guys and see who can do the best job. This conservative treatment will be best for the patient in the short term and in the long term.  I'm OK not spending the money on Sale.  Sincerely, tarheeltwinsfan, M.D. (Money Doctor)

[Brock Beauchamp]

I mean, this is a way to spend money. Is it a good way? No. Is it an efficient way? Definitely no.

But it is a way.

[saviking]

Only if Boston marks him down and puts him on Sale ..

[jmlease1]

Sale does nothing for me. His prime has come and gone, he's barely pitched since 2019, and he's owed a ton of money. His last mostly healthy year he was decent but hardly great, and it's hard to think that he's going to recover his form at age 34. he looks like a guy who is breaking down and falling apart.

(I also recall him being a...difficult personality in his last years with the ChiSox?)

For every Verlander there's 5 guys that never really get it back after TJ. It's been what, 5 years ago since sale was truly a frontline starter? I'm not sure he meets the "better than Sonny Gray" test to elevate the rotation.

Also, i think the "frontline starters don't want to come to MN" idea is a little overblown; Wheeler is the one we know told us to eff off, but he told anyone who wasn't east coast the same thing. Bumgarner (maybe) but again...he wanted AZ, much like Wheeler wanted Philly (and I'd say we dodged a bullet there). I think in the other cases of us missing out on a frontline starter it was because the team didn't want to give the money or the years (or both).

[Rosterman]

I would try and get Cueto for less and two years, if possible. Probably a better return in the end. And, who knows, might have some money leftover for a bullpen arm.

[Tibs]

They would have to retain 50% of his salary and throw in at least a lottery ticket prospect before I'd start a conversation

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

A big no.  If that money is really burning a hole in the Twins pocket then lock up a few current players into their FA years.

Like who? No one does that for pitchers five years from free agency. Miranda? Seems unnecessary at this point. 

[Mike Sixel]

I just don't see enough here for this to be a good idea. 

I'd rather buy a prospect by taking on a contract. 

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Arreaz for one.

I can see this, though I don't love his knees or his long term position. But that's it among the options right now.

[Coach Wheels]

7 hours ago, davidborton said:

Don't want to hear this one. Beyond the injury issues, not interested in adding to the clubhouse, someone who cuts up the issued uniform in front of teammates so the team can't wear assigned uniform of the day.

Agree. I hate the idea of bringing his miserable personality to the Twins baseball team. Let go prove himself again somewhere else

[HoskenPowell]

How many millions are the RedSox gonna send along with him??  10/15/20 million???   Guys a ticking time bomb.   If they send 15 million and don't cost us more than Kepler sure go ahead.....but we can find 30/40 innings out of the minors at minimum.......Be a miracle if he pitched 100 innnings.

I would never expect him to do more than 5/6 starts with 5/6 innings a start

[DocBauer]

Nick, I don't think this is a crazy idea at all, even though I don't know that I'm on board. And I have to admit, I've been out on him the past few years when his name has been brought up previously based on his last few seasons. But then I read your thoughts, and went back again a d looked at his career.

He was still really good in 2018. Not so good in 2019 where he was probably struggling due to his arm and eventual surgery. But in SSS, he was throwing pretty well in 2021 again. And then 2022 was, obviously, a bit of a nightmare year.

If we eliminate 2022, he looks like an arm ready to bounce back strong based on his 2021, coming back from TJ. Someone mentioned Verlander. There was a brief time when he looked almost cooked in Detroit before rebounding and finding just as much success as he had previously after the trade to Houston.

I'm not so certain Sale is cooked yet. I could see a major rebound and a few more really good years if 2022, and his various injuries there can be pushed aside and overcome. But wouldn't Boston probably see the same thing?

A no trade clause? Those are often waived. He might be looking for a change of scenery out of Boston, and a fresh start. The more of his contract the Twins take on, the lower the trade cost, which might play a part.

I do worry some about the mesh of personality to the Twins roster. I had forgotten about the uniform cutting situation. Competitive fire, and frustration, are good things and can be understood and accepted. But extreme forms can be equally detrimental and negative. For the most part, I think the FO has been pretty calculated in regard to personality, though they've taken "risks" a couple of times.

IF the Twins see a serious rebound, the cost is cheap, and IF they feel he fits in the clubhouse, I see a potential for a huge rebound that pays real dividends. 

I don't dislike this idea at all. Potentially low risk and high reward. But I'd bet Boston sees the potential reward, he'd have to want a change of scenery, and I wouldn't want him if the FO had any doubts about personality fit. But it's NOT a crazy or bad idea.

 

[old nurse]

2018 was Sale’s last good year. Who was the last player to come back after 4 non seasons to be elite for 2 more years