Time Is Running Out For Royce Lewis

[Cody Pirkl]

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

Royce Lewis is a different player than he was when he was drafted first overall in 2017. Injuries have changed his profile, but for a time, it appeared he still had a path to becoming an impactful regular at the highest level. As he nears 1,000 career plate appearances, however, his ability to remain a core piece of the Twins roster has come into question. Time is running out. Can he turn things around before it's too late?

Injuries have cost Lewis his once well-rounded skill set, as he's settled into a corner infield role wherein his defensive value is limited and his primary offensive tool is his power. Plenty of hitters make careers out of this profile. The problem with Lewis's attempt to do so is that it's been a while since he's been consistently productive. With the sample size he's put together, it's time to worry whether his remaining tools are enough to keep him afloat.

 

 

Lewis's production has consistently trended downward over the last four years. In between injuries, he's seen his wRC+ drop from 152 in 2023 to 106, then 85, and now just 65 so far in 2026, with 100 marking the league average. At a corner infield position, where the bar to clear offensively is higher, this lack of offensive production is even more detrimental.

 

It's more than just surface-level production to worry about. This season, Lewis has a whiff rate of 36.5%, one of the worst in the league. His overall strikeout rate of 30.3% is by far the worst of his career. He looked like a much more patient hitter to begin the season, and his walk rate still looks much improved, but he's walked just once in 42 plate appearances since returning from the IL, while striking out about a third of the time. His approach at the plate is a complete mess.

 

Defense has been an issue, as well, as he's posted -2 Defensive Runs Saved. The eye test has certainly matched. At this point, it's safe to say that Lewis is a below-average defender at third base.

 

 

The Twins may not have a wealth of upcoming top prospects on the verge of filling out the infield, but they have options on the horizon. We're certain to see Kaelen Culpepper sometime this season; he's likely to push Brooks Lee off of shortstop. While Lee is stretched at shortstop, he should be an adequate defender at third base. Surprisingly, his bat has also looked much better suited for the position than Lewis’s so far this season. Culpepper's promotion alone may be enough to raise significant questions about Lewis's role.

Lewis is arbitration-eligible in 2027 and has two options remaining. His team control and roster flexibility should be good news. For a player who has already expressed frustrations with the organization at multiple points in his career, however, it’s worth asking whether this team control and roster flexibility matter as much as they should. For such a high-profile player who has been so outspoken, it’s worth wondering how well things would go over if Lewis winds up being demoted to St. Paul or gets pushed out of a starting role long-term. It’s very possible that if the team’s plans move forward without Lewis playing a prominent role, his time in Minnesota comes to an end altogether.

 

We may finally be approaching a point where significant turnover is on the horizon for the Minnesota Twins. The supposed core they’ve had in place since their last playoff run in 2023 has failed to live up to expectations, and with so much change across the organization, the roster is likely to follow suit with another disappointing season. Lewis once looked like a lasting piece of the Twins roster, regardless of how well the rest of the team performed. Things have changed significantly since the start of 2024. It feels like the clock is ticking on his time with the Twins, as his timeline of struggles has continued to drag on across multiple seasons. If he can’t turn things around soon, he may find himself out of their plans.

 

View full article

[HerbieFan]

Sadly, Royce Lewis is the poster child of the Twins' complete inability to fully develop position players under Falvey. 

[The123bigalguy]

I have to agree with you. The decline is astonishing. Is it mental or physical? Or both? We had such high hopes. I’m still hoping he can figure it out.

[bunsen82]

8 minutes ago, HerbieFan said:

Sadly, Royce Lewis is the poster child of the Twins' complete inability to fully develop position players under Falvey. 

No its their rush to bring up players and play them out of position.   He injures himself playing outfield in a position he has rarely played.   He is your shortstop of the future and you complete derail it to try to get some short term gain.  Then whatever has been occurring with the advice on his plate discipline is beyond comprehension.  I truely think Correa got in his head just like Miranda.  Alas,  what could have been.  

[GNess]

Lewis surely has been impacted by his injuries, but his level of production is woeful. I see him off balance and flailing at the plate consistently. His confidence seems to have fallen off. (Understandably)

Not sure if he can regain anywhere near his form of a few seasons ago, but is it still worth giving him a bit more time to do so? His trajectory once was almost superstar level - few players reach that level even for a half a season or so. 

A genuinely  productive Lewis could be huge for this team and organization.

Tough situation and decision.

 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Feel bad for Royce. I think he'll be synonymous with 'what if'...

I think injuries were the biggest culprit more than anything else. He worked hard in the off-season to tweak his stance and mechanics - while his stance is different, I don't see too much difference in the mechanics. Looks like he is standing flat footed when he swings and that wasn't the case in 2023. That leg injury he suffered on opening day in 2024 - it set him back big time and it was compounded by other leg / hamstring injuries.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

And, yeah, the grand slam barrage from 2023 may have been an outlier not to be duplicated but I think a healthy Royce would have been a really good player for the Twins.

[mickster]

19 minutes ago, The123bigalguy said:

I have to agree with you. The decline is astonishing. Is it mental or physical? Or both? We had such high hopes. I’m still hoping he can figure it out.

I do as well but have my doubts.   I would demote him and see how he handles it.   Twins will most likely then take him to arbitration and will win.

[Over The Hill Again]

Although nothing great, for me he makes enough plays at 3rd to get by, assuming he wasn’t almost a complete zero at the plate as he’s trending toward. It’s truly astonishing that all those coaches and people in a position to work with him on his approach to hitting can’t or won’t get through to him. Watching him it looks like he is starting over from scratch, with mechanics, pitch recognition, count awareness, etc. every plate appearance. Too bad there isn’t anyone in the organization to help with that, or maybe he’s just not willing to be coached. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

This is a very tough one. You watch Lewis hit and he seems completely unbalanced, flails at breaking pitches, and regularly whiffs at fastball strikes in the zone. Yet we can all remember times when he looked like a superstar in waiting who just needed to avoid injuries and get a chance to play regularly. The current version of Lewis is completely unplayable. I think you have to give him another month to six weeks of regular time to see if he can turn things around, especially since he essentially has no trade value at this point. Even worse, he’s out of options so we can’t send him to AAA to get his stroke back and he undoubtedly would be claimed on waivers. I suspect that his timeline matches that of Culpepper in that when Culpepper is ready to come up, probably in June, Lewis is the one that stands to lose out. 

[Gamblerssoftball]

It's starting to look like he needs a reset in St. Paul. We need to find out if he's ready to admit that it's the best thing at this point. He doesn't really have a choice, so he ought to just try ti fix it there.

[Linus]

I’ve got a wild and crazy theory: Royce isn’t talented enough to be a big leaguer. Injuries have not helped him for sure but he has logged enough healthy time that he should be showing something. I also don’t buy blaming it on the Twins: he’s had a bunch of different coaches over his career. Is it more plausible that every single coach was clueless or that Royce isn’t good enough?  If you honestly assess him he is a one tool player: power. He doesn’t make contact well, his swing decisions are poor, his arm is average strength and erratic and his glove is inconsistent. His speed has returned some but he’s not a burner. As a third baseman his ceiling is average hitter and average fielder. That’s the ceiling - we probably will see something else. And I’m not judging his attitude like some do - I don’t know the guy so I just stick to his on field play. 

[jmlease1]

23 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

No its their rush to bring up players and play them out of position.   He injures himself playing outfield in a position he has rarely played.   He is your shortstop of the future and you complete derail it to try to get some short term gain.  Then whatever has been occurring with the advice on his plate discipline is beyond comprehension.  I truely think Correa got in his head just like Miranda.  Alas,  what could have been.  

Blaming Royce Lewis's (and Jose Miranda's) struggles on Carlos Correa is one of the wilder statements I've ever seen at Twins Daily.

Royce playing a little CF may have been a foolish decision, but the injury itself was one of the flukier flukes that ever fluked. And he came back from it in 2023, even finishing out the season on a high note with 4 homers in the playoffs. It's not "playing out of position" and it's not Carlos Correa. It's the accumulated damage of having a real injury issue every single year of his MLB career up until now (this season's was pretty minor) and blowing out a knee to miss 2021 as well. he's missed a ton of time, his physical superiority has diminished, and he doesn't have several seasons of consistent MLB experience to fall back on in making adjustments.

It's taken him 5 seasons to reach 1000 ABs. That's the equivalent of about 2 full seasons, of which he's never played 1. Brooks Lee is only like 225 ABs behind him, despite 2 fewer seasons and some injuries of his own. It's the injuries. It's 100% the injuries.

(Miranda fell apart because he got beaned. he was on a fine track in 2024 (when Carlos Correa was with the team), got beaned and the whole thing fell apart for him. He was a disaster last season, and clearly needed more time and distance, along with a fresh start; he does seem to have bounced back with SD...but I highly doubt that has anything to do with getting away from Carlos Correa, who was a big booster of his)

It'll be interesting to see if the Twins are willing to send him down. They certainly have a reasonable option if Culpepper continues to progress well: bring up Culpepper, move Lee to 3B, use some combo of Gray/Kreidler to back up the left side. See if Royce can get it back together at AAA.

He's only 27, so it wouldn't be shocking for him to get back on track. But it's been quite a while since he's been good at the plate.

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

I suspect that his timeline matches that of Culpepper in that when Culpepper is ready to come up, probably in June, Lewis is the one that stands to lose out. 

Possibly, but I doubt we see Culpepper before September. He will probably not come up if there is a risk he burns an option in 2026. The club will want all three options available for 2027-29. His production on offense so far says he should stay in AAA. That gives Lewis the whole 2026 season to claim 3B for 2027.

[bunsen82]

13 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Blaming Royce Lewis's (and Jose Miranda's) struggles on Carlos Correa is one of the wilder statements I've ever seen at Twins Daily.

Royce playing a little CF may have been a foolish decision, but the injury itself was one of the flukier flukes that ever fluked. And he came back from it in 2023, even finishing out the season on a high note with 4 homers in the playoffs. It's not "playing out of position" and it's not Carlos Correa. It's the accumulated damage of having a real injury issue every single year of his MLB career up until now (this season's was pretty minor) and blowing out a knee to miss 2021 as well. he's missed a ton of time, his physical superiority has diminished, and he doesn't have several seasons of consistent MLB experience to fall back on in making adjustments.

It's taken him 5 seasons to reach 1000 ABs. That's the equivalent of about 2 full seasons, of which he's never played 1. Brooks Lee is only like 225 ABs behind him, despite 2 fewer seasons and some injuries of his own. It's the injuries. It's 100% the injuries.

(Miranda fell apart because he got beaned. he was on a fine track in 2024 (when Carlos Correa was with the team), got beaned and the whole thing fell apart for him. He was a disaster last season, and clearly needed more time and distance, along with a fresh start; he does seem to have bounced back with SD...but I highly doubt that has anything to do with getting away from Carlos Correa, who was a big booster of his)

It'll be interesting to see if the Twins are willing to send him down. They certainly have a reasonable option if Culpepper continues to progress well: bring up Culpepper, move Lee to 3B, use some combo of Gray/Kreidler to back up the left side. See if Royce can get it back together at AAA.

He's only 27, so it wouldn't be shocking for him to get back on track. But it's been quite a while since he's been good at the plate.

My stance stands.   Prior to significant influence by Correa and our MLB staff - they were willing to spray the balls to all fields.  Miranda's other issue is he only had significant success in 1 season.    Both players became significantly pull happy and trying to go for the home run. Miranda also has a bit of an issue similar to Lee where the contact rates are decent and they tend to get weaker contact on pitchers pitches that either lead to increased ground balls or weaker contact.   Lewis went from a hitter that could consistently spray the ball the other way to a pull happy hitter that can only hit a middle to inside pitch.   Anything on the outer half he isn't getting to.   Pitchers have just pitched him on the outer half except for mistakes and these are the results you get.     

[Craig Arko]

Time was also running out for Trevor Larnach and Brooks Lee. Time appears to be a most fickle finger of fate.

[AceWrigley]

Send him down already. Forget trying to be a power hitter and work on bat-to-ball skills that I thought he used to have.

[LA Vikes Fan]

9 minutes ago, AceWrigley said:

Send him down already. Forget trying to be a power hitter and work on bat-to-ball skills that I thought he used to have.

I was under the impression that Lewis has no options left, but a quick internet search suggests he has 2 remaining. Does anyone know the answer to this? Sending him down to find his stroke makes sense if that is possible, but I was under the impression that he couldn't be optioned.  

[DJL44]

12 minutes ago, AceWrigley said:

Send him down already. Forget trying to be a power hitter and work on bat-to-ball skills that I thought he used to have.

Do you know who has the highest OPS and highest batting average of any batter in St Paul? Royce Lewis.

Would you rather see Kreidler or Orlando Arcia?

[Fire Dan Gladden]

There is a lot of "Matt Wallner" here. Someone with all the tools, yet can't seem to put it all together consistently. Are we looking at another "change of scenery" candidate?