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    Derek Shelton’s First Impression: Grading the Twins’ New Manager

    Derek Shelton was handed a flawed roster. Through the season's first nine weeks, he’s found ways to keep the Twins competitive while establishing a very different tone in the clubhouse.

    Cody Christie
    Image courtesy of © Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images

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    When the Twins hired Derek Shelton, the early reaction around the organization felt overwhelmingly positive. After years of watching Rocco Baldelli manage with a calm and measured personality, Shelton brought a more energetic and outwardly emotional style to the dugout. That difference has been noticeable from Day One.

    Shelton has always been comfortable in front of a microphone and has shown a natural ability to connect with both players and the media. That doesn’t automatically make someone a good manager, but it helped establish confidence, during a season wherein the Twins were already facing plenty of uncertainty. The real question was whether Shelton could navigate a flawed roster while keeping the club in contention. So far, the answer has mostly been yes.

    Lineup Construction
    One of the biggest talking points entering the season was the top of the lineup. The Twins had multiple candidates to hit leadoff, including Luke Keaschall, Ryan Jeffers, and Brooks Lee. Instead of endlessly rotating options, the club quickly settled on the obvious answer. Byron Buxton wanted the role, and Shelton embraced it.

    It has been the right decision, and it wasn't an easy one. Buxton remains the team’s most dynamic offensive player, but if he could hit equally well regardless of lineup position, you'd want him to bat second, third or fourth. More than Baldelli, Shelton came in trying to make that work, but once he recognized how big a difference it makes for Buxton in matters of preparation and mindset, he changed tack. The Twins have not spent the season overcomplicating lineup construction with constant matchup-based shuffling. Injuries have forced adjustments, but the everyday structure has largely remained stable.

    Shelton also deserves some credit for the organization’s willingness to make difficult decisions with struggling veterans and former stars. Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner were both expected to anchor significant portions of the offense this season. Instead, both players played themselves into demotions. While Shelton wasn’t the sole voice behind those moves, he deserves credit for managing the situation without creating unnecessary distractions (although, arguably, also some blame for the fact that each has cratered so badly). The Twins prioritized production over reputation.

    Offensively, the results have been encouraging in several important categories. Minnesota ranks as the eighth-biggest improver in Hard Hit%, up 0.2% from last season. Only three American League clubs have improved more. The Twins have also posted the AL’s largest increase in Launch Angle Sweet-Spot%, improving by 1.3%.

    That doesn’t mean the offense has been perfect. There have still been prolonged slumps and inconsistent performances throughout the lineup. However, Shelton has shown a willingness to move on from underperforming players rather than wait endlessly for improvement.

    Shelton's Lineup Grade: B

    Starting Pitchers
    The rotation looked like a potential disaster before the season even started. When Pablo López went down on the first day of spring training, it felt like Minnesota’s margin for error disappeared immediately. Instead of collapsing, the Twins have pieced together one of the better rotations in the American League.

    Taj Bradley has looked like a legitimate frontline starter. Joe Ryan continues to pitch at an All-Star caliber level despite an injury scare earlier in the year. Connor Prielipp has exceeded expectations during his rookie campaign, even as the organization carefully monitors his workload. Then there’s Zebby Matthews, who opened the season in the minors before injuries forced him into a critical role. He has responded exactly the way the Twins hoped.

    Shelton has also pushed the rotation aggressively, because he understands the limitations of the bullpen. Minnesota’s starters have consistently been asked to work deeper into games, and for the most part, they’ve delivered. He's been bitten a few times by leaving in starters too long, but there's no doubt that he has a different philosophy of pitcher usage and managing injury risk than Baldelli did. Last year, the Twins had 12 starts in which a hurler topped 100 pitches. This season, they already have nine, even though Bailey Ober only needed 89 pitches to complete one game. They're also staying on more of a five-day rotation, with 23 starts coming on four days' rest so far. Last year, under Baldelli, the Twins only had 41 such starts.

    The overall numbers back it up. Twins starters rank 10th in MLB in fWAR, which is sixth in the American League. They also sit eighth in ERA, eighth in Hard Hit%, and sixth overall in HR/FB rate. Given the circumstances, it’s hard to imagine Shelton squeezing much more out of this group.

    Shelton's Starting Pitcher Grade: A

    Bullpen Usage
    This bullpen probably should not work as well as it has. Entering the season, Minnesota lacked established high-end relief arms, and the concerns only intensified as injuries and inconsistency piled up. Shelton has responded by embracing complete bullpen chaos.

    So far, it has mostly worked. Eleven different pitchers have recorded a save this season, and no reliever has more than two saves. It has been a full committee approach, with Shelton constantly searching for favorable matchups and hot hands.

    There have absolutely been questionable moments along the way. Some pitching changes have backfired, and there are nights when the bullpen still feels one bad inning away from disaster. However, the overall results have been better than anyone reasonably expected. Twins relievers currently own a positive WPA, which felt nearly impossible entering the year, considering the available personnel.

    The organization also deserves credit for refusing to stay loyal to struggling veterans. Luis García and Justin Topa were designated for assignment after failing to establish consistency. Meanwhile, the Twins continue searching for undervalued contributors who can stabilize innings.

    Yoendrys Gómez has carved out a useful role, while younger pitchers like Andrew Morris and Travis Adams are beginning to adjust to leverage situations at the major-league level. Shelton hasn’t magically transformed the bullpen into a strength, but he has managed to keep it from sinking the season.

    Shelton's Bullpen Grade: B

    Overall Grade: B+
    Shelton inherited a roster with obvious flaws, limited bullpen certainty, and major injury concerns in the rotation before Opening Day even arrived. Instead of letting the season spiral out of control, he has established a clear clubhouse identity while keeping the Twins competitive in a wide-open American League. His style differs noticeably from Baldelli’s, but different doesn’t necessarily mean better or worse. It simply means Shelton has put his own stamp on this team.

    There’s still plenty left to prove over a full season, especially when it comes to handling late-game situations and offensive consistency. However, considering the circumstances, Shelton’s first season in Minnesota has been a successful one (to this point).


    What grades should Shelton get for the areas above? What’s his overall grade? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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    It's a reasonable grade and analysis, but I'd probably give him, up to this point,  an A-.  If you had told fans (including around here) that the Twins would be through one-third of the season with Lewis and Wallner in St. Paul and Keaschall struggling, what do you think they would have predicted for a record - maybe 10 games under .500? Shelton doesn't deserve all the credit for where they are, but he definitely is pretty high up the list.

    5 minutes ago, arby58 said:

    It's a reasonable grade and analysis, but I'd probably give him, up to this point,  an A-.  If you had told fans (including around here) that the Twins would be through one-third of the season with Lewis and Wallner in St. Paul and Keaschall struggling, what do you think they would have predicted for a record - maybe 10 games under .500? Shelton doesn't deserve all the credit for where they are, but he definitely is pretty high up the list.

    Concur.  A new manager often brings improvement because, in part, it's just the nature of the job.  I nevertheless pegged this as a 101-loss team, just for "fun," and it was the potential of underperformances like you mentioned, plus the merest shell of a formerly capable bullpen, plus the chance of key injuries which we've already seen several of, that led me to expect a roster with not a very high ceiling in the first place to exhibit futility.  To instead have this team a game below .500 is an accomplishment.  I still expect more downs than ups the remainder of the season, but I'm enjoying the results so far and am happy to give the new manager credit for them.  Grade of A at this early juncture because I don't know what else could have been asked of him.

    I would give Shelton a B. The Twins have done better than I expected except for Wallner and Lewis especially. But that's just it, Baldelli wasn't given the luxury of low expectations the past few years. Maybe we just overrated the Twins roster as many former Twins seem to be performing poorly with their new teams. Good job Derek Shelton.



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