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Posted
Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

Box Score:
Starting Pitcher:
Bailey Ober: 6 1/3 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 ER 4 BB, 10 K (102 Pitches, 61 Strikes, 59.8%)
Home Runs: None
Bottom 3 WPA: Andrew Morris (-0.70), Garret Acton (-0.40), Byron Buxton (-0.14)
Win Probability Chart (Via BaseballSavant):
image.png

Things have leveled off for the Twins following their brief stay at the top of the league table, and they entered Sunday's series finale with the Reds in danger of losing their fourth straight game. Their defense and bullpen, thought to be major weaknesses entering the year, were just that on getaway day.

On the positive side, the Twins were facing Brady Singer, who has endured a 9.00-plus ERA in his Target Field career. On the downside, Bailey Ober took the mound for the Twins, and he had paired an 88-MPH fastball with a 5.49 ERA over his four starts in 2026.

Things started nicely, as Ober induced extremely weak contact while featuring mainly his changeup and sweeper. He allowed a bloop single in the first and a walk in the second. He finished the second inning with a Javier Báez-esque sword of Rece Hinds, courtesy of a sweeper a foot off the plate.

Meanwhile, the Twins squeezed across a Byron Buxton run against Singer in the first. We've seen it many times before: Buxton beats out a squibber, the fielder rushes the throw, allowing Buxton to advance to second, and then two productive outs bring Byron home. The Twins were unable to make anything else happen against Singer and his 91-MPH sinker, though, which he was locating in the middle of the zone.

The Twins took advantage in the third. After James Outman's customary easy out, Buxton drew a walk, Trevor Larnach ripped a single to right and Josh Bell followed suit, as did Victor Caratini, making the score 3-0.

The Reds would answer in the fourth. The electric Elly De La Cruz led off with a broken-bat double down the right-field line. Outman bobbled the ball, which allowed De La Cruz to reach third. He would score on a grounder up the middle from Sal Stewart. Following a walk to Eugenio Suárez, Ober was then bailed out by former Twins farmhand Spencer Steer, who took strike three on a 3-2 count. The ball was six inches outside, but Steer inexplicably decided not to challenge. Ober retired Tyler Stephenson to minimize the damage.

Ober was pretty good, shielding his fastball as much as possible and throwing his typical array of changeups that dart away from lefties and come back into the zone against righties. The sweeper was particularly good, and Ober mixed in some fastballs late in his outing that got key strikeouts against Stewart and Suárez. The velocity was up to 90 MPH at points, but I think Ober is making adjustments to try to be that Mark Buehrle/Jered Weaver type of pitcher who can have success throwing in the 80s. It worked today, as Ober struck out 10, the last of which came on an 87-MPH four-seamer that somehow got past the bat of Stephenson. He also induced 14 whiffs.

Andrew Morris pitched the eighth with a 3-1 lead, and his velocity was a little down, sitting 93-96 MPH. It was a little rocky, requiring 28 pitches, but he got a key strikeout against Suárez on a sweeper to end the frame.

He came back out for the ninth, and quickly gave up two opposite-field singles to the bottom of the Reds' order. He recorded an out, then walked nine-hole hitter Hinds. The struggling TJ Friedl then roped a middle-middle fastball to the gap in right-center, to clear the bases and turn the game on its head.

The Twins were not done, as the alleged corpse of Outman followed up his first hit of the year with a ringing leadoff double in the ninth. Buxton was unable to advance Outman, but Austin Martin smashed a double down the left-field line to tie the game against old friend Emilio Pagán. Bell lined a ball at 102 MPH to deep center, but it held up for Myers. Caratini would fly out to end the threat and send the game to extras.

After finishing the ninth, Garret Acton was brought back out for the 10th. He allowed a missile off the bat of Stewart (109 MPH) that Martin made a leaping catch on. Suárez then grounded to third, Tristan Gray booted it, and then Martin bobbled it in left, allowing the speedy "Manfred Man" De La Cruz to score. Hinds would then double in two to put a bow on the game.

Things I'm Tracking:

  • The baserunning was pretty good to start, with Buxton and Larnach taking extra bases and then Brooks Lee taking third on a hit (gasp) from James Outman in the fourth. Lee was perhaps feeling himself a bit after that, as he tried to steal home on a throw down to second with Outman running. Lee was out by, uh, a lot. Red Sox fans sometimes describe OF/DH Masataka Yoshida's running style as running as if he were made of LEGOs and I think Lee has the same affliction.
  • I wondered if the Reds had some sort of mandate not to challenge pitches as hitters, as they let two important strike threes go by in the fourth and fifth innings, when both were clear balls. I get the philosophy, as catchers have the better view of pitches, and their challenge percentage is higher than hitters, but it really impacted the Reds from a WPA perspective today.
  • De La Cruz then unsuccessfully challenged a strike call in the sixth, and Dane Myers followed suit in the seventh. It is surprising a Tito Francona-led team would do so much self-inflicted damage.
  • Kody Clemens' walkup song is "Confidence," and for a guy hitting under .150 that seems a little on the nose.
  • The "redundant trade candidate" Trevor Larnach reached base four times today, raising his OBP to .468. He's definitely not useful at all.
  • "Really cool underrated slugger" Matt Wallner sat due to the after-effects of getting hit in the ribs last Monday. His 71 OPS+ and emotion-based ABS challenges were surely missed.
  • The defense is a struggle, man. Outman's bobble allowed the first run to score, and then the play in the tenth involved two separate errors.


What’s Next: The Twins travel to Queens to face the Mets, featuring a neat matchup between promising young starters Mick Abel (1-2, 3.98 ERA) and Nolan McClean (1-1, 2.28 ERA). The Mets are currently in the midst of an 11-game losing streak, which is pretty funny considering how big their payroll is. (probably not to them, but.)

Postgame Interviews:

Bullpen Usage Chart:

  WED THUR FRI SAT SUN TOT
Morris 0 0 0 0 47 47
Topa 13 0 11 10 0 34
Sands 0 0 20 12 0 32
Funderburk 14 0 8 10 0 32
Acton 0 0 0 0 29 29
Orze 12 0 0 15 0 27
Banda 24 0 0 0 0 24
Rogers 0 0 0 0 8 8

 


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Posted

Crushing devastating sweep-reds had horseshoe up their ass and no business winning all 3!!! 🤬😤😡💩😢need to flush this down toilet and have 4-2 week to stay over.500 and reclaim division!!!

Posted

Arguably I count 5 mental and physical errors on that hot shot to third in the 10th:

  • 3B not fielding it
  • SS not picking it up (understandable with LF charging in, the least error-like play on the play)
  • LF not picking it up
  • LF with an awful throw 
  • 3B cut off and conceding run, not pivoting to throw home 

Oh well

 

Posted

I'm pissed again , I keep thinking about what Tom Pohlad said  , we will be competitive  , just when you think he may be right , the ship sinks by 4 torpedoes to a 4 game losing streak ...

It won't be easy in New York at Queens  , they may have lost 11 in arow but they can taste victory with twins coming in ...

Bell leads team in average and rbi's  ...

Posted

Flashbacks of last season. Good game from the starter. Leaves with a lead. Bullpen and defensive miscues cost us the game. 

Morris should not have been sent back out for the 9th. Terrible Baldelli-like decision there. 

Yet again commenting on Lee messing something up, gets thrown out by a mile at home. 

I thought the team was "going back to the basics"? Pitching and Defense? Where is it

Posted

Yes, there’s the bullpen and the defense…and then there’s scoring one measly run in the final six innings…and that run manufactured by Outman and Martin.

Three consecutive really really good starts by the pitching staff…3 consecutive losses. The offense played their part.

Posted
1 hour ago, jaimedude said:

Give him some more talent. Morris should never have went back in for the 9th. 28 pitches in the 8th, he was cooked. Shelton should have gave the 9th to someone else. 

This game, even with all the errors and pitching mistakes, I put on the back on Shelton.  I agree...putting Morris back out  there to pitch the 9th inning was INANE!  Shelton said in this postgame interview that the BP was a little beat up...but he still had Acton who had to come in anyways to rescue Morris.   Morris is brand new to the biggs and you put him in as the closer in a tight game against a tough team.  What the H was Shelton thinking?  

Twins Daily Contributor
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, JADBP said:

This game, even with all the errors and pitching mistakes, I put on the back on Shelton.  I agree...putting Morris back out  there to pitch the 9th inning was INANE!  Shelton said in this postgame interview that the BP was a little beat up...but he still had Acton who had to come in anyways to rescue Morris.   Morris is brand new to the biggs and you put him in as the closer in a tight game against a tough team.  What the H was Shelton thinking?  

The pen was "beat up??"

The Twins pen going into today was in about as good shape as can ever be expected past opening weekend in today’s MLB. 

There is no such thing as a low leverage reliever.

 

Edited by USAFChief
Posted
1 hour ago, jaimedude said:

Give him some more talent. Morris should never have went back in for the 9th. 28 pitches in the 8th, he was cooked. Shelton should have gave the 9th to someone else. 

Morris is a starting pitcher who literally just moved to the 'pen a couple weeks ago. He threw 70 pitches in 3.0 innings on 4/12. He could have thrown 70+ pitches, no problem.

Posted
1 hour ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Arguably I count 5 mental and physical errors on that hot shot to third in the 10th:

  • 3B not fielding it
  • SS not picking it up (understandable with LF charging in, the least error-like play on the play)
  • LF not picking it up
  • LF with an awful throw 
  • 3B cut off and conceding run, not pivoting to throw home 

Oh well

 

Whoops...you missed one!  3B Gray throwing up his hands saying "Throw it to me!"  It looked like Martin was going to throw it home, to cut off the run, but he's trained to throw it to the guy with his arms up...which he did.  Martin should have thrown it home, which he might have if instead Gray just points to home.  While Martin is not the strongest thrower, he can certainly make it home from shallow LF.  I'd add that in as another fielding error on the part of Gray.

I agree that Lee should have picked up the ball.  He was close--steps away--and Martin still 30-40 ft away.  Good thing Martin is fast! 

But, it was Lee's job to back up the bobble by Gray, and he was 5 ft away versus Martin.  Look at these pictures...Lee is 2-3 steps away (although the ball is rolling away from him) while Martin is what 30-40 ft away?  That was Lee's ball!  I disagree that "LF was charging in..."  Yeah, he WAS, but Lee was far closer to the ball.  If Lee goes gets that ball, he freezes the runner at 3B.

S0, I have an 3B flubbed the catch.  E on Lee for not backing him up (I have no idea what Lee contributed to the play--he was a spectator!  Maybe an E on LF for muffing the catch, but NOT on his throw, he followed his training and threw it to the guy with his arms up.  And, yeah, another E on Gray for throwing his arms up and/or not throwing it home (but by that time, I don't think he could have caught the runner. It was too late.  He should have just stood there and pointed to home plate.  

image.png.3aea1530384c6f19b0ab175f59063398.png

image.png

Posted
8 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Morris is a starting pitcher who literally just moved to the 'pen a couple weeks ago. He threw 70 pitches in 3.0 innings on 4/12. He could have thrown 70+ pitches, no problem.

Not the way he was pitching. He barely got out of the 8th. Two hard hit balls to the gap in the 9th. After 1 out a 4 pitch walk. Morris to me is more suited to start then come  out of the bullpen in a high leverage spot. I like Morris, but I don't think he is suited for a bullpen role. Honestly I would like Simeon Woods-Richardson and Morris to swap spots. I think Sim more suited to pitch out if the pen and Morris more suited to start and go long. SIM has breaking pitches that would work out of the pen. Like you said Morris is more of a starter. 

Posted
2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Ober got a lot of help from the home plate umpire today.

So did Tom Glavine  & Greg Maddux for more than a decade - close enough for the knucklehead Reds batters to not challenge.

Posted
18 minutes ago, jaimedude said:

Not the way he was pitching. He barely got out of the 8th. Two hard hit balls to the gap in the 9th. After 1 out a 4 pitch walk. Morris to me is more suited to start then come  out of the bullpen in a high leverage spot. I like Morris, but I don't think he is suited for a bullpen role. Honestly I would like Simeon Woods-Richardson and Morris to swap spots. I think Sim more suited to pitch out if the pen and Morris more suited to start and go long. SIM has breaking pitches that would work out of the pen. Like you said Morris is more of a starter. 

He’s pitched in relief TWICE. So, unless your last name is Nostradamus it may be too soon to give up on him. He had good stuff in the 9th - not throwing strikes early enough in counts to a couple hitters really hurt him!

I thought after the two hits to right he should have been removed just due to his lack of command.

Most here at TD have been clamoring for more velocity from someone in the PEN not. ore “spin”. Results vary with good pitchers and with guys that have mediocre stuff. I think he needs more of a chance to acclimate himself to this new role………probably a month or two in reality………particularly if he’s used in “long situations” once a week or 3 times every couple weeks. Needs to get a feel!

Posted

A few observations from this game and series.

The bullpen is going to struggle just like the end of last year.  At some point Shelton is going to have to define roles, you can't be in the position of expecting Morris to close out a game in his second major league appearance.  And yes those roles may change and change often but trying to match up game by game is not sustainable.

The error in the tenth was on Gray, and that is not the shortstop's job to back him up.  It is his job to try and chase the ball down to limit the damage.  But you really want your outfielder to get that ball as their momentum is going towards the plate and not away.  People are really down on Lee but that play was not on him as some are trying to suggest.

As for Lee, if they move off of him it needs to be to Culpepper.  These 30 something journeymen that offer limited impact at best do not help us.  Either ride with Lee and at a minimum find out if he can be the utility player when and if moved.  We have 3 30 year old utility guys who should all be the 26th man at best on the roster.  One is already getting regular playing time and people are advocating for another, either Gray or Kreidler to be a regular as well.  That is not winning or exciting baseball.

Posted
1 hour ago, GopherMike said:

First in-person game of the year and boy did it suck.

Twins are losing in the most inefficient way possible. An 11-11 team with a +12 run differential and excellent starting pitching. 

Were leading A.L. in run differential (17) going into the series. Starters gave up 4 Earned over 18 plus innings - UNDER 2,00 ERA from those 3 starters. Cannot lose all 3 games!

Day off last Thursday and another one tomorrow. Can’t pull together enough good innings the past two days from PEN to hold leads - pretty disappointing.

Knew PEN was going to be an issue - knew defense was going to lack at numerous spots - knew the offense was probably going to be suspect………….maybe just need to assume they can’t be good, only OK once in a while…….not sure yet?

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