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GopherMike

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Everything posted by GopherMike

  1. GopherMike
    I've been waiting for this article. “There’s a pretty good chance they’ll be moving some established major-league pieces over the next few weeks.” "Some" is doing a lot of work here.....but I'm increasingly leaning towards "no there's not". Based on everything we know, that is not the most likely organizational direction. They are 48–49, tied for a Wild Card spot, ownership has publicly supported adding, and they have already made bullpen additions. They could trade a redundant player such as Bell or make a baseball trade involving surplus, but that is very different from treating the second half primarily as an evaluation period. In general, I think this site (and probably Twins fans in general) are: 1) Too hasty to assume we will trade off every veteran or demote anyone not immediately producing 2) Too quick to assume everyone in AAA is genuinely ready or deserving a promotion C.J. Culpepper is intriguing, but currently too flawed. He needs a full year in AAA. A 13% walk rate is not offset by saying he “finds ways to work himself out of trouble” and I don't see that happening nearly as much in the MLB until he figures out how to establish better command. We've already demoted more established veterans for the exact same reason. Ben Ross is intrguing and the versatility is real. But “confidently predict” is too strong because: He is 25 and not regarded as a major prospect. His Triple-A sample is still limited. He is not currently on the 40-man roster. Kreidler and Martin already offer defensive flexibility. Gray can be optioned rather than removed from the organization. Culpepper would probably receive priority if both are healthy and an infield opening develops. I think he is a situational possibility if there are multiple injuries, but far from a sure thing. Saying Rodriguez “would already have gotten a look if he weren’t hurt” feels too confident. His sample size is small and his strikeout rate is concerning. He has the power and athletic ability, so it's possible he gets that cup of coffee that Gonzalez got. But there's really no way to know. His sample size is super small. I actually like the names (and agree we will not see Walker Jenkins this year), but Culpepper is probably the only one on this list I would put at greater than 50% odds....and I'm still not even convinced he's currently more likely than another shot at Arcia if/when Gray goes down. Now go ahead and down vote me. 😀
  2. GopherMike
    What's funny is that this is basically exactly where FanGraphs had us, but coming off of 2025 and with the general distaste in everyone's mouth I think it was just hard to fathom. Which isn't to say the season has played out to expectations....just that being a .500 team maybe wasn't as fantastical as many fans thought.
  3. GopherMike
    Total minor league numbers are: St. Paul 33 (28 active) + 3 on 60-Day IL Witchita 35 (29 active--must be a reporting error) + 2 on 60-Day IL Cedar Rapids 33 (27 active) + 4 on 60-Day IL, 1 on season-ending IL Fort Myers 31 (28 active) + 3 on 60-Day IL, 5 on season-ending IL Florida CPX 31 (31 active)-- + 3 on 60-Day IL, 2 on season-ending IL The total is 163 guys (max 165), and 15 guys on the 60-day IL (limit is 15) So we can sign and assign 2 picks to an active roster before we either need to start releasing guys or moving 60-day IL guys to season-ending and 7-day IL guys to 60-day. But given how much mediocre and old pitching we have...I would guess some releases are coming.
  4. GopherMike
    I like this draft pretty well. I certainly understand the logic. Take the best position player with your top 2 picks and then flood the system with pitching. We are so desperate for starting pitching depth from top to bottom (and relatively good on position players) that I don't think they can take too many pitchers in this draft.
  5. GopherMike
    St Paul is going to need to clear up two pitcher roster spots with Anderson and Orze being sent down. Just as well....there is a bulk of guys that are too old/not performing anyway.
  6. GopherMike
    I like this pick a lot more once they followed it with the Wachsmann pick
  7. GopherMike
    Yeah they should definitely fire the GM of six months because of who is starting at SS tonight
  8. GopherMike
    Which would you rather have: --A 31-year-old reliever with 0.3 WAR this year and two years of team control OR --A 25-year-old starting pitcher with 1.6 WAR this year and four years of team control Gosh...I dunno....can I have a minute?
  9. GopherMike
    My honest guess is Gray and then they figure out who of their 3 catchers they move (if they haven't already). Gray has options, and Lee can cover SS in a pinch. I could see the argument for Jackson or Roden, but that's my guess for now.
  10. GopherMike
    It's funny that people got straight to Culpepper when Arcia is still the much more likely call-up. So much tantilization with the prospects in these parts.
  11. GopherMike
    It would be absolutely insane for them to not buy Larnach's final year of arbitration. I cannot even imagine that is a discussion right now. He is arguably the second best hitter on the team.
  12. GopherMike
    I agree with the general concern. At some point, the Twins cannot just keep collecting upper-minors corner bats and never give them MLB opportunities. If they don’t believe in all of their guys they should absolutely trade from that group for pitching or a major-league piece who fits 2027–2028. Where I disagree is making Larnach the automatic casualty and/or that we should force a trade for someone who is valuable now to create space for someone who may or may not be valuable. Trade Bell. That will free up one spot alone. Trade Jeffers and you've basically got two. Also, the prospects are not all in the same bucket. Roden looks ready. Mendez is interesting. Wallner has already struggled badly in MLB this year. Gonzalez is not forcing it yet. Jenkins should not be rushed. E-Rod is hurt. So “the prospects need a chance” is true, but it does not automatically mean “trade the proven productive left fielder.” But don't treat Larnach like he's a clog. He's not. Bell is the clog.
  13. GopherMike
    A targeted sell is completely appropriate. A second sell--off in two years sounds more like fan logic because you're annoyed with the roster. Bell? Absolutely. Jeffers? Yes. But only if healthy enough to get value. Rogers? Yes. If we truly fall back and there's an offer. Not automatic if we're alive. Selling Larnach "regardless"? Illogical. Larnach has a 126 wRC+ and a .377 OBP and has been one of the actual stabilizers in the lineup. He is not Bell. He is not a short-term dead-end rental. He is useful now, and the Twins are not overflowing with proven MLB corner bats. The “too many young corner outfielders knocking on the door” argument sounds good, until you remember one of those is Wallner, who is obviously very risky, and the rest are guys who have yet to prove anything at the major league level. Yes--sell Bell. Create opportunities. Fire sell "regardless"? Dumb, honestly. Clemens? From a value standpoint.....maybe. If we get a good offer. I would agree he has peaked. But I don't see it happening. Gomez? ......what? We have an absolutely terrible bullpen and you want to sell our best reliever that is controllable for years to come? What? We have enough upper-minor bats to move Bell and Jeffers, I agree. Everything else comes with a lot of risk that saying things like "regardless" is how we made the mistakes we made last year. That's trading Louis Varland logic.
  14. GopherMike
    I think Jackson's contributions have been great, but I wouldn't jump to the assumption that he would be claimed, given his 0 options. He was already DFA'd once and nobody claimed him. Granted, he's had a nice run since then, but I don't think that 100% changes the equation. Every team is only going to carry two catchers. That said--if they know they are going to trade Jeffers (and I'd bet they are) then holding Jackson for a few weeks is worth it. But longterm they cannot carry three catchers.
  15. GopherMike
    This is the correct answer. There is far too much "player A is better than player B". Matchups matter. Bench depth matters. Positional versatility matters. Roden should get a call if they trade Larnach and/or Bell. Or if Fedko just proves unplayable in the major leagues. But the move was made with roster intention in mind, and one guy hitting a few AAA homers doesn't change that.
  16. GopherMike
    Also--not to dogpile...but Jen Pawol (home ump) was genuinely awful. 9 challenges. 9. It's a nice story...but she should not be a MLB umpire. Cardinals: 2 of 3 challenges won Twins: 4 of 6 challenges won Total impact: about +0.950 net run expectancy and +12.1% net win probability corrected through challenges
  17. GopherMike
    You understand the difference between "this isn't going to happen" and "I'm not 100% convinced" and "I think" Right?
  18. GopherMike
    I'm happy for him too. And please don't call me butt.
  19. GopherMike
    Hello :)
  20. GopherMike
    Tristan Gray Ryan Kreidler Eric Orze Yoendrys Gomez All four waiver claims this season/off-season who are making genuine contributions. Add in Kody Clemens from last year as well. This team has done a lot wrong, but they've done a pretty solid job with the waiver wire.
  21. GopherMike
    Absolutely love this move. He's R5 eligible and they need to see if he's worth protecting now. Arcia was solid, and deserves to be picked up by somebody, but betewen Gray and Kreidler having a 3rd SS is just unecessary.
  22. GopherMike
    I'm noticing more of a trend of these clickbait headlines. Please stop doing that.
  23. GopherMike
    Nobody is going to give us anything for Bell. We could potentially DFA him and either pray someone makes a claim...but I doubt it. He's arguably not even worth a roster spot....let alone at $7 mil a year. Or we could just DFA him because he's literally cooked. That's really the big question right now. Because Wallner is basically a DH at this point. So...whose bat is more cooked, Bell or Wallner? I'm willing to give Bell a few more weeks to see
  24. GopherMike
    Who says he has to play a ton?
  25. GopherMike
    I think in hindsight this move wasn't as consequential as we thought at the time. The best part of the move was that we didn't sign Berrios to a 7 year $131 million contract. THAT would have been consequential. Regardless---we clearly won this trade. I don't see the point in comparing it against a hypothetical alternative trade we could have made. There's just far too many hypotheticals.
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