Why a Twins Rebuild Was Never the Only Answer

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images / © Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

There is a natural instinct, among fan bases, to equate disappointment with demolition. When a season ends without a playoff run, the favored solution is often to burn it down and start over. This offseason, the Minnesota Twins resisted that urge. Instead of opting for a full rebuild, they chose to bet on moves at the margins and the belief that their window has not closed. Given the current landscape of the American League Central, that decision looks more pragmatic than passive.

Projection systems are not gospel, but they provide a useful snapshot of where teams stand relative to one another. By projected team WAR, the Twins sit at 38.8 fWAR, which places them 17th in Major League Baseball and third in the AL Central. Kansas City checks in at 40.8 fWAR and Detroit at 40.6 fWAR. That gap isn't negligible, but it's hardly insurmountable.

When FanGraphs converts those projections into expected wins, the margin tightens even further. Detroit is projected to win 83 games, Kansas City 82, and the Twins (also) 82. That clustering, alone, justifies avoiding a teardown. Minnesota is not staring up at a juggernaut. They are very much in the same tier as the teams they need to beat.

Why Can the Twins Contend?
One of the clearest reasons for optimism is the organization’s starting pitching depth. Pablo López (3.4 projected fWAR) and Joe Ryan (3.2 fWAR) remain the anchors, both possessing All-Star pedigrees. Bailey Ober (1.7 fWAR) is the wild card. Last season raised legitimate concerns, but his earlier body of work suggests there is still a borderline All-Star pitcher in there, if he can regain his form. Even if one of those three falters, the Twins are unusually insulated.

Few organizations can roll out the volume of young arms Minnesota has waiting in the wings. Simeon Woods Richardson (1.2 fWAR), Zebby Matthews (1.7 fWAR), Mick Abel (0.6 fWAR), David Festa (0.4 fWAR), and Taj Bradley (1.4 fWAR) all represent viable options who could claim innings at the big-league level. Even prospects like Andrew Morris and Kendry Rojas are likely to get innings with the Twins. Some will succeed, others will not, but the sheer number of options creates flexibility. Injuries and inconsistency are inevitable over a long season. Having credible next-man-up solutions is how teams survive them without collapsing.

The offense is more volatile, but not without upside. The Twins are counting on a mix of modest additions and internal growth. Byron Buxton remains the linchpin (3.3 projected fWAR). When he is healthy and locked in, he changes the shape of the lineup entirely, but fans saw last season that he can’t be the team’s only offensive producer.

Around him, the spotlight falls on a group of young hitters who are still defining themselves. Luke Keaschall (3.0 fWAR), Royce Lewis (2.7 fWAR), Brooks Lee (2.1 fWAR), and Matt Wallner (1.9 fWAR) all enter 2026 with something to prove. Each has shown flashes that suggest a long-term role, and each carries questions about durability, consistency, or ultimate ceiling. The Twins do not need all of them to break out. They need a couple to establish stability.

Depth, again, plays a quiet but important role. At Triple-A St. Paul, Minnesota has legitimate offensive reinforcements waiting. Emmanuel Rodriguez brings on-base ability and power. Walker Jenkins carries star potential that could force the issue sooner, rather than later. Gabriel Gonzalez adds another contact bat with upside. It certainly helps that he’s a right-handed hitter in a sea of lefties for the Twins. If the major-league lineup stagnates, there will be options to inject energy and production without mortgaging the future.

This is why a full rebuild never made sense. The Twins are not old, bloated, or devoid of talent. They are imperfect, yes, but they are also close. In a division where the difference between first and third is a win or two, continuity has value. Development has value. Betting on health and internal growth is not complacency. It is a calculated gamble.

The Twins chose to compete because the math and the roster say they can. In the AL Central, that may be all you need.

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Do the Twins have enough to win the AL Central? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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[LambchoP]

We still need some stability in the pen. Rogers was a decent start. Wouldn't mind trading for one arm, especially if the trade gets rid of a logjam of DH type outfielders. Then signing someone like Kopech could be good. I'd say Festa to the pen along with Rogers, a trade acquisition and one free agent could make us competitive (in our division).

[hlsballer318]

The twins just can't completely collapse during games like they did last year. If the bats are slumping, fielding and pitching need to compensate and vice versa. Last year in a lot of the losses it seemed like when one door closed, every other door and window also slammed shut.

[TheLeviathan]

Maybe slow down on the Twins propaganda articles Cody.  This is the 3rd?  4th? article in the last 5 days and they are all ranging from poor quality to outright ridiculous.  

I'd rather read articles that are thought-out and provide interesting information and angles than these increasingly bad ones that the board is being spammed with.

[Cris E]

Agreed. This is a valid point, but should have been a single paragraph in a better article on something larger. 

[GNess]

If this is an example of rebuild (or reset if you, prefer) while staying in contention the emphasis on rebuild last July saw the Twins dump their bullpen which remains a primary concern.

Despite having made a few moves the BP outlook s troubling. There are few outcomes more demoralizing than blowing leads late in games in almost all sports.

[Linus]

Conveniently no mention of the biggest flaw, the bullpen. I am interested in building a good to great team, not one that if everything goes their way they can win 83 games and flirt with a wildcard spot. Perhaps my expectations are unrealistic but I know that what they are doing now is not the path to real success. 

[bean5302]

The Twins were projected to win the division at this time last year, too. There's a big difference between projections and reality at this time of year.

There are times when teams take major steps forward with a young core. We saw that between 2015-2017 where the team nearly made the playoffs, flopped and rebounded to make the playoffs for the first time since 2010.

There are also a lot more times when a team is just cooked like the 2011 team where it took years and years to rebound.

Tom Pohlad said he wasn't a partial commitment kind of guy, but that is exactly what fans are used to and EXACTLY what we're getting.

So yeah, the owners and front office could choose to screw the fans like they are doing. It might work out or it might not. But if they're looking to get fans to invest in the team, status quo isn't the right course. They're lying to us.

[tony&rodney]

This heading begs the question, Why the selling of the bullpen last July?

Defensive metrics are a mess in my opinion. Decades and decades of playing, coaching, managing, and evaluating serve me better. Last October I felt the Twins desperately needed to upgrade their defense. Naturally, many people, disagreed with that assessment and most specifically the Twins do not place much importance on defense.

A 90-100% best outcome by all of the Twins players may be a statistical possibility for 2026 and that could bring the team to 83 wins. I hope that happens because I'm a Twins fan.

Looking (briefly) over OOA and Fielding Run Value, the Twins are hurting badly in the field. A case can be made that both Royce Lewis and Byron Buxton can provide average defense at third base and centerfield respectively. In the other positions the outlook is grim to poor. One can hope that Luke Keaschall is fully recovered now from arm surgery and he may reach an acceptable level of play. Perhaps Austin Martin and Brooks Lee make strides as well. The ifs are humongous for the bats but the ifs are almost unimaginable for the defense. Again, this is only true if one puts any regard towards the importance of turning batted balls into outs. I already understand that many people believe fielding is unimportant and they have Falvey on their side.

The Pohlad sell-no sale drama and the shrinking payroll have understandably been highlighted a bajillion times. Less scrutinized has been that the architect of the team, Falvey, seems to feel he has the best team possible already. The statements about the players just needing to play to their potential and finding a few available players to fill out the roster indicate the goals of the front office. Look to Vegas for an answer of an outside perspective. The goal in Vegas is simple and the odds are stark.

But hey, the 1991 Twins went from worst to first. Maybe in 2026? The difference is that the 1991 team had a number of above average fielders. 

[The Great Hambino]

Funny, the word "bullpen" appears nowhere in the article

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

I actually do think the offense will probably be fine. And I do think the bullpen will get sorted.

I worry the most about the defense generally. Unless they do make actual changes from the current group of corner outfielders and also see pretty major improvement up the middle at SS and 2B, I have a hard time seeing real progress.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

You are correct in that the starting rotation provides an excellent foundation, and that the offense could at least be OK (although I'd prefer better than that).  However, as currently constructed, the bullpen is a disaster area.  People say that it will all be fine with late additions and converted starters.  Perhaps. . . . but that takes time, and the team that at full strength sometime in July might be playing at an 85 win pace might have already lost enough games at a 60 - 70 win pace that it won't matter.  

Make some trades for some bullpen pieces (or sign someone)!  If we don't do that then it probably makes little difference what else happens.  

[LastOnePicked]

Using FanGraphs as evidence that the status quo was the right choice this offseason is really a stretch, Scratch that - using a Fangraphs projection that has the Twins in the bottom half of all MLB teams is really, really, really a stretch.

Look, for folks who wanted the status quo in 2026, you can relax. You won. The FO and ownership have agreed. The Twins will run it all out again, nibble at the fringes of the roster and see if they get a different result. Yes, they do have a new manager. No, he didn't seem to have an impact on a similarly-run franchise in Pittsburgh.

All of this reminds me of my mother's garage sales. She inevitably prices everything far too high, because she believes that all of her things have great value and she really doesn't want to part with her stuff. So she expends a lot of energy for very little reward, and she ultimately has to just give things away a year or two later to clear space.

This is not a good baseball team. This is not a team on the cusp of contention. Watching last year's playoffs was a stark reminder that the Twins aren't really even playing the same sport as their competition. I thought it was finally time to stop fooling ourselves and make wholesale changes. But apparently, that time is not now.

So, enjoy. We'll revisit all of this in the 2025 offseason. Maybe even sooner.

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, TheLeviathan said:

Maybe slow down on the Twins propaganda articles Cody.  This is the 3rd?  4th? article in the last 5 days and they are all ranging from poor quality to outright ridiculous.  

I'd rather read articles that are thought-out and provide interesting information and angles than these increasingly bad ones that the board is being spammed with.

Yup. They need another sister site. Twins Suck Daily. 

[DJL44]

The Cardinals started the offseason with a projection similar to the Twins (averagish), but they took a very different path.

I think projections would be a lot more useful if they included standard deviations. The error bar is a lot smaller for some teams than it is for others.

[DannySD]

If national prognosticators view the Twins as an 82 win team, it's likely because: they are in the AL Central, have decent starters, a history of turning AAAA starters into a servicable bullpen, and a rep for acquiring value players - often unexpected and/or late in FA (Correa, Cruz, Maeda, Santana, Bader, etc)

[Riverbrian]

I'm not going to predict the 2026 performance of each department,

We can all assume that the starters will be decent and the bullpen will be terrible. When 2026 is done who knows the end result. Maybe the bullpen gets the job done and the starters fail us. 

We will see what happens in 2026.

In regards to the title of article. 

Of course a rebuild isn't the only answer. Even if rebuild is the only answer... there are degrees to the level of rebuild. Do you move every player not nailed down or do you move just a couple of them.  Trading Ryan and Lopez is different than just trading Ryan.

If the Twins are not going to rebuild... like it seems thus far... there are degrees to the level of the aggressiveness of "Going for it". I would call this a low grade level of "going for it". Signing Josh Bell instead of a polar bear is a degree lower.

In my opinion... there is one thing that has to happen in regards to the future of this franchise. The front office needs to transition from trying to survive on low level free agents to trying to survive on developing players like Milwaukee... like Cleveland. This transition can't be avoided... we can either do it this year or in future years but future years just delays what will have to be done eventually. 

[chpettit19]

Where can I place my bet on a Twins O/U of 82 wins?

I can absolutely understand the point of view that they have talent in the starting rotation they wanted to try to build around. But it's January 27th and I don't see any meaningful building being done. 82 wins seems like a pretty unrealistic projection to me. Hope to be wrong, but this bullpen has 72 wins, not 82 wins, written all over it. Going to need some awfully impressive rookie seasons.

[Whitey333]

Yes the Twins propaganda machine has been spewing it out for a while now.  Did the Twins buy Twins Daily.  Ive been a Twins fan forb60 years.  Yes that makes me old.  But the Falvey years have been a joke.  Obviously ownership has a big hand in that.  But I get so tired of the same thing every year.  Just like your article names great prospects.  They don't mean much until they can perform at the major league level.  Hope and hype is what they sell every year.  Ive been so gullible to believe it over the past few years.  Not anymore.  Twins are going to have to prove to me that they are good.  They have been bad in most areas the past several years.  They've missed playoffs 4 if past 5 years.  IMO they have a lot more roster building to be taken seriously.  They may only be contenders with the White Sox for last placenin the Central in 2026

[Parfigliano]

Didn't the 2025 projected fWAR have TC as a top ten team with the #1 bullpen?  

[Major League Ready]

43 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Where can I place my bet on a Twins O/U of 82 wins?

I can absolutely understand the point of view that they have talent in the starting rotation they wanted to try to build around. But it's January 27th and I don't see any meaningful building being done. 82 wins seems like a pretty unrealistic projection to me. Hope to be wrong, but this bullpen has 72 wins, not 82 wins, written all over it. Going to need some awfully impressive rookie seasons.

The cool thing about baseball is occasionally teams really surprise us.  That said, I would be right there with you placing a sizeable wager on the under.  Honestly, I think they are taking the path of least resistance.  They can pray for absolutely everything to go right and sell at the deadline if it doesn't.  Probably not the best plan and they take on considerable risk but either Falvey convinced ownership or ownership dictated this direction.  Either way, more pursuit of mediocrity.

[The Great Hambino]

I was curious, so I looked up team win total over/unders for 2026 

Twins: 71.5, ahead of only the Nationals, White Sox, and Rockies

If you think Fangraphs WAR is a better predictor of a team's season than Vegas, then good news: there are some massive money-making opportunities for you out there

[Jim H]

I have been trying to understand what the FO has been working toward since they did the sell down at the trade deadline. Clearly, one goal was to upgrade the catching at all levels in the system. Half a dozen new catchers from low levels in the system to the majors seems to indicate they considered catching an area needing massive improvement.

Adding 3 left handed hitting corner outfielders at the deadline would seem to indicate dissatisfaction with the status quo. Either they were unhappy with the current corner outfielders or they don't believe much in the near ready outfielders in the system. In any case, 9 outfielders on 40 man roster plus Jenkins plus a couple of other guys on the 40 man who can play outfield is something you would think gets addressed at some point.

After trading away their best bullpen arms they must have a plan to address that. Taking what seems to be a lot of potential starters and turning them into relievers has to be part of the plan.  You would think that which guys being converted should have been pretty well figured by now. Whether we should know is one thing. Hopefully, the players have an idea by now. Fixing the bullpen by free agents won't happen. Trades might help.

The additions of guys who should be primarily dh's confuses me.  Clearly trades of the guys that were already on the roster and best suited for dh have to be under consideration.

Finally they must be happy with their projected infield.

[KirbyDome89]

Brooks Lee projected for 2.1 WAR....I mean....

We could pick this thing apart all day, but how is anybody taking these projections, and by extension this article, seriously. 

[Eris]

As there were about 6 underperforming positions players mostly responsible for the 2025 season results, upgrading most of these positions without waiting for prospects was always almost impossible. In fact all of these underperforming players (except Vasquez) are still on the team. So the 2026 season becomes trying the same thing over again (minus a good bullpen foundation) and expecting a different outcome. 

[old nurse]

4 hours ago, The Great Hambino said:

I was curious, so I looked up team win total over/unders for 2026 

Twins: 71.5, ahead of only the Nationals, White Sox, and Rockies

If you think Fangraphs WAR is a better predictor of a team's season than Vegas, then good news: there are some massive money-making opportunities for you out there

Vegas is about extracting your money from you. 

[old nurse]

5 hours ago, DJL44 said:

The Cardinals started the offseason with a projection similar to the Twins (averagish), but they took a very different path.

I think projections would be a lot more useful if they included standard deviations. The error bar is a lot smaller for some teams than it is for others.

On average fangraphs is off by 8.   As trades are made after rankings come out and rookies are hard to project, variance is going to happen  if a team goes into tank/sell mode that would increase the variance.  

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, Jim H said:

I have been trying to understand what the FO has been working toward since they did the sell down at the trade deadline. Clearly, one goal was to upgrade the catching at all levels in the system. Half a dozen new catchers from low levels in the system to the majors seems to indicate they considered catching an area needing massive improvement.

Adding 3 left handed hitting corner outfielders at the deadline would seem to indicate dissatisfaction with the status quo. Either they were unhappy with the current corner outfielders or they don't believe much in the near ready outfielders in the system. In any case, 9 outfielders on 40 man roster plus Jenkins plus a couple of other guys on the 40 man who can play outfield is something you would think gets addressed at some point.

After trading away their best bullpen arms they must have a plan to address that. Taking what seems to be a lot of potential starters and turning them into relievers has to be part of the plan.  You would think that which guys being converted should have been pretty well figured by now. Whether we should know is one thing. Hopefully, the players have an idea by now. Fixing the bullpen by free agents won't happen. Trades might help.

The additions of guys who should be primarily dh's confuses me.  Clearly trades of the guys that were already on the roster and best suited for dh have to be under consideration.

Finally they must be happy with their projected infield.

Yes, it would seem there was a plan. And yet, here we are .... waiting.

[D.C Twins]

I kept looking for the disclaimer: "This article was sponsored by the Twins Season Ticket Sales Committee'

Are you sure that you did not forget it?

 

[D.C Twins]

Here is another analysis.

Last year's team minus a bullpen and plus mediocre substitutions at 1b and C = more wins than last year?!

Math doesn't work unless 90%+ of the team has career years. 

Hope is still not a plan.....still....