Arbitrary Thoughts: Bailey Ober

[Sherry Cerny]

Image courtesy of © David Richard-Imagn Images

RHP Bailey Ober 
Age on Opening Day 2026: 30 
Service Time: 4 years, 93 days
2023 Salary: $720,000
2024 Salary: $761,580
2025 Salary: $3.55 Million
MLB Trade Rumors Estimate for 2026: $4.6 million

Background
Born in Huntersville, NC, and attending the College of Charleston, Bailey Ober was drafted by the Twins in the 12th round of the 2017 amateur draft, having previously been a 23rd-round selection by the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2015. His decision to stay in college one more year made a huge difference in his talent and draft class. He made his major league at 25 years old with the Twins in 2021, going 3-3, 4.19 in 20 starts and 92 ⅓ innings. He has since turned into a regular in the Twins rotation, accruing a 4.08 ERA over 618 MLB innings. He has spent his entire career in Minnesota. 

2025 Season
Ober’s 2025 season was a roller coaster. He started slow and inconsistent, taking longer than usual to find his rhythm. By midseason, he was battling through pain in his left hip — a lingering issue that eventually caught up to him. In July, after a rough stretch where he went 0–5 with a 9.00 ERA and surrendered 14 home runs, Ober landed on the injured list.

Before the injury, Ober had appeared in 27 games, logging 92 innings with 108 hits, 55 runs, 22 walks, and 74 strikeouts, for a 5.28 ERA and a -1.0 WPA. After a month-long rehab stint, he returned to the mound on August 2 against Cleveland and showed noticeable improvement. Over his final 10 starts, he regained command and consistency, posting a 4.80 ERA with 46 strikeouts and just nine walks, raising his WPA to 0.3. It wasn’t a perfect finish, but it was a strong recovery to close out an uneven season.

Overall 2025 Stats: 27 G, 146 1/3 IP, 159 H, 31 BB, 120 K, 5.10 ERA, 1.30 WHIP.

Twins Depth at his Position (Starting Pitchers): 
40-man roster - David Festa, Mick Abel, Taj Bradley, Marco Raya, Simeon-Woods Richardson Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, Travis Adams
Arbitration-Eligible: Joe Ryan
Triple-A: Andrew Morris, Marco Raya, Cory Lewis, John Klein, Aaron Rozek, Kendry Rojas, Connor Prielipp.
Double-A: Ricky Castro, Darren Bowen, Ryan Gallagher, Sam Armstrong, 

Why the Twins Should Offer Him Arbitration:
Despite an uneven 2025, retaining Bailey Ober should be a straightforward decision for the Twins. He’s demonstrated stretches of frontline-caliber pitching in past seasons, remains under 30, and will come at a relatively modest arbitration price. Even for those skeptical of his long-term upside, the combination of cost control, experience, and need makes him a clear asset to keep.

Why the Twins Should Non-Tender Him 
While tendering Ober a contract is a no-brainer, the Twins could weigh the decision to trade him even with his stock depressed. If they aren't confident his mechanics and velocity will rebound, the front office may seek to flip him to a team needing veteran innings. 

Projection: I think that the Twins keep him, but his future in Minnesota is anything but certain. 

Ober is a solid pitcher, when he is healthy. In fact, he is downright talented. He has amazing command and control of the strike zone; his height and size make him a weapon on the mound. The concern is the staying healthy part, but there is plenty of time in the offseason for him to work on straightening out his physical issues. Even with his injuries, knowing the ethic of Ober, he can come back better and stronger. His previous three seasons remind us of who he is on the mound. 

What do you think about Bailey Ober? Consider his stats and his health, then what is seen on the mound when he is healthy. Are there reasons they should keep him? Trade him away? Explore a buy-low extension? What would you do?

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[thelanges5]

If we assume the rest in the off season helps him get right, then the $4.6 for a SP3 or SP4 is a bargain. Bailey from 2022-24 was a solid starter. I believe that pitcher is still in there. 

[tony&rodney]

Bailey Ober is a really good pitcher. Most pitchers get injured. Ober was injured quite a bit in 2025. He is a solid mid to back end rotation pitcher. There are bound to be a number of teams looking to buy low on Ober. If the right offer is put on the table the Twins should move him, but he is also a good guy to have around in 2026 if there isn't a fair offer. I believe people underestimate Ober and also think he would benefit from better defenders behind him.

[DocBauer]

I'm a fan and believer. In fact, he's one of my favorite arms to watch throw. When he's on, he throws about as well as Ryan and Lopez. His control and command are excellent. He has quality secondary offerings, and his 92mph FB makes hitters look silly at times. 

What held him back in MILB initially was that huge frame and his mechanics. He ended up hurt quite a bit with nagging, but not serious, injuries. The Twins re-worked his mechanics and nurses him a bit through a solid rookie season. And he was really good in 2023 and 2024. 

He often complained that his mechanics were out of whack this past season. My question, which will probably go unanswered, is whether his "out of whack" mechanics caused his hip injury, or did he hurt his hip and that caused his mechanics to go south? I'm totally believing an offseason of rest and then getting said mechanics back on track will bring the "old" Ober back for 2026.

Even if the Twins open next season with Lopez and Ryan on the team...knock on wood...he's still really important as a veteran #3 arm. His $ is really minimal, and were he a FA, he'd probably get double even coming off 2025 based on age and what he's done previously.

[rdehring]

In 2023/2024 he was as good as any of their starters.  Seems he has a real clunker early in the year that distorts his overall numbers.  But it wasn't that long ago I was seeing articles that all three of the main Twins starters, Lopez, Ryan and Ober, were pitchers who could be in the Cy Young conversation.

What happened in 2025 was the result of his injury, at least in my opinion.  The Twins probably should have shut him down earlier for a month, or longer, so he could heal.  Had they done that I expect we wouldn't be having this discussion.

As for the future, should the Twins intend to compete in 2026 they will need their three top starters.  And that includes Ober.  Should they catch lightening in a bottle with a couple of their young arms, they could move one of them in July.

[Vanimal46]

I’m not that high on Ober, but you have to gamble for $5 million he can find the lost velocity. If he does that’s a bargain price. If he doesn’t, it shouldn’t prevent the Twins from moving on. 

[Chembry]

25 minutes ago, rdehring said:

In 2023/2024 he was as good as any of their starters.  Seems he has a real clunker early in the year that distorts his overall numbers.  But it wasn't that long ago I was seeing articles that all three of the main Twins starters, Lopez, Ryan and Ober, were pitchers who could be in the Cy Young conversation.

What happened in 2025 was the result of his injury, at least in my opinion.  The Twins probably should have shut him down earlier for a month, or longer, so he could heal.  Had they done that I expect we wouldn't be having this discussion.

As for the future, should the Twins intend to compete in 2026 they will need their three top starters.  And that includes Ober.  Should they catch lightening in a bottle with a couple of their young arms, they could move one of them in July.

Both Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober were named preseason dark horse Cy Young candidates by MLB.

https://www.mlb.com/news/2025-mlb-cy-young-award-candidates

[Doctor Gast]

Twins have been needing a pitcher for veteran innings the past 2 years. IMO, is one of the main reasons the Twins have not been competing. If Ober comes back, great; if not, we still have his veteran innings, which is still valuable. If we trade him now, we'll be selling low & miss his veteran innings even if they don't trade Ryan or Lopez.

[jmlease1]

He's an easy tender option for sure. I don't see him as getting traded in the offseason; this front office has shown itself to be pretty adverse to selling low on a player unless they're at the almost cut stage, and Ober is nowhere near that. If he has a sharp first half but Ryan & Lopez are still here and we're seeing more out of people like Bradley, Matthews, SWR, Abel, etc I could see him get moved at the deadline? But still more likely that he's here for 2026 and maybe gets traded in his walk year (presuming the billionaire owners in MLB don't implode the 2027 season...)

I like Ober. I think he's one of those guys that's never going to be an ace, but can be a playoff caliber starter. 

[Permanent Twins Fan]

Ober definitely needs to be retained for 2026. There are a lot of questions about his performance and health, but the upside that he showed in 2023 and 2024 is hard to replace. 2026 might be his last chance with the Twins. If he does not perform in 2026 he will probably be non-tendered or traded away. I still believe in the upside, but he is one of the players with the most to prove in 2026, and if he doesn't step up, there are a lot of pitchers waiting in the wings for his rotation spot.

[Mike Sixel]

Easy decision. I'd likely keep him too, unless they feel he's broken. 

[PatPfund]

This isn't a no-brainer for me, and as much as I love Bailey (and he is one of my favorite Twins), if the Twins don't think he will regain his velocity (which he DID NOT do after his time out), they should decline arbitration. Ober relies on elite extension to get his pitches to 'play up', and at 89 mph it clearly isn't enough to be an MLB starter. There is a real chance (only Ober and the Twins would know) that his elite extension helped cause his injury, and he isn't 'under 30' any more (he turned 30 in July).

Another past fave of mine that relied on elite extension was Tim Lincecum, and when he lost a bit of flexibility he went from Cy Young material to terrible in one year. And never got it back (net negative WAR the second half of his career). $4.5 million is not peanuts (it is roughly what we paid Bader this year), and if we gamble it on a broken pitcher and lose we might regret the chance to add a piece big time. Forget "flipping" him after arbitration; other teams read injury reports and news too, and will likely wait for his release so they can try him out on our dime.

[Dawgzilla]

I think his arm is shot...he was a averaging like 89 mph on his fast at end of  season, that doesn't project well for next year.

[Lasorda_This_Out]

Talented but always in the repair shop.

Trade now for what you can screw the other team into a bad deal?

[terrydactyls]

10 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Twins have been needing a pitcher for veteran innings the past 2 years. IMO, is one of the main reasons the Twins have not been competing. If Ober comes back, great; if not, we still have his veteran innings, which is still valuable. If we trade him now, we'll be selling low & miss his veteran innings even if they don't trade Ryan or Lopez.

What in the world are "veteran innings"?  Does the opponent only get two outs?  How are they different from a "regular" inning?

[Whitey333]

Reminded me of the old TV game show I think it was truth or consequences when the announcer would say Would the real Bailey Ober please stand up?  Yes ww need the good Ober.  But im concerned that he looks broken down.  Velocity way down.  Hope Ober gets back on track for next year 

[BSLinPA]

Sherry.......the second sentence in this report reads, "Does Ober have the discipline and health to be ready for 2026?"   We all recognize that Bailey experienced physical health issues this past season, but is there reason to question his discipline?  To what are you referring?

[DJL44]

At $4.6M they have to tender him a contract. That's a fair price for an experienced reliever and a bargain for a starting pitcher.

Someone in this rotation is getting traded during the offseason. A rotation of Ryan, Lopez, Ober, SWR (no options), and Bradley (no options) keeps both Abel and Matthews in St. Paul. Both of those pitchers need major league innings to develop, they're done with AAA. If they keep Ryan and Lopez, then Ober needs to go. If they trade Ryan, then Ober will probably keep his spot until at least July and the Twins will hope he has a bounceback season so they can trade him at the deadline.

However, if another team values Ober like this:

18 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

If we assume the rest in the off season helps him get right, then the $4.6 for a SP3 or SP4 is a bargain. Bailey from 2022-24 was a solid starter. I believe that pitcher is still in there. 

then we could see both Ryan and Ober dealt.

[The Great Hambino]

It's an easy decision to tender him.  But I think more than any other player on the roster, it makes sense to forego trading him this offseason to see if he can build back some value after the way his season ended.  Part of the argument for trading guys like Lopez and Ryan now is that their trade value is more likely than not to go down as time goes on, just due to the reduced control they come with in each passing trade window.  I don't think that applies to Ober to the same degree.  Plus, if by some miracle this team is legitimately competitive come the trade deadline, you can simply keep him

[AKTwinsFan]

If he can add more velocity to his fastball hed be even better. Most of the year hovering around 90mph is not ideal to have success in the majors.

[Coach Wheels]

Bailey showed this year that his ceiling is 4 or 5 in the rotation. He can't be your 3rd starter when he's hurt or having velocity issues yearly. 

[DJL44]

7 hours ago, AKTwinsFan said:

If he can add more velocity to his fastball hed be even better. Most of the year hovering around 90mph is not ideal to have success in the majors.

He might end his career in the bullpen for that reason.

[strumdatjag]

11 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Reminded me of the old TV game show I think it was truth or consequences when the announcer would say Would the real Bailey Ober please stand up?  Yes ww need the good Ober.  But im concerned that he looks broken down.  Velocity way down.  Hope Ober gets back on track for next year 

It was the TV Show: To Tell the Truth. 
Yes. maybe find Ober a role in the bullpen. 

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, strumdatjag said:

Yes. maybe find Ober a role in the bullpen. 

Only after one or more of the prospects actually establishes himself as better than Ober as a starter. 

Ober, even in his currently diminished state, has served the role of "innings eater" - second most IP on the staff this past season.  You only miss that sort of capability when you no longer have it.

[TopGunn#22]

At some point the Twins need to give Bradley, Matthews and Abel the innings needed to turn the corner to becoming a solid MLB pitcher.  Frank Viola needed it, Bert Blyleven needed it, Dave Boswell needed it.  As DJL44 said quite succinctly, "their time in AAA is over."  

Bailey Ober is an ASSET.  One lost season is not going to cost him the value he still has as a 30 year old pitcher with a solid track record and attractive affordability especially when he was mentioned as a "Dark Horse Cy Young candidate" coming into the 2025 season.  His BBTV of 16.6 is not as high as it once was, but that value would be more than enough to trade even up for White Sox 22 year old Catcher Edgar Quero (14.6).

Quero is already an excellent defensive catcher.  He hit .268 in 111 games and 365 AB's as a rookie.  He only hit 5 HR's and his OPS was only .689 but he showed a lot of promise.  He played 72 games at Catcher and another 29 at DH.  

If the Twins wanted to go for broke, they could offer Ober (16.6) and Jeffers 8.1) to the White Sox for 23 year old Catcher Kyle Teel (24.8).  Teel is not quite as good as Quero defensively, but still better than Jeffers by a mile.  Teel is the better hitter at this point, hitting .277 in 297 PA with an excellent .375 OBP and .786 OPS.  Teel hit 8 HR's last season.  The Twins also wouldn't be under the pressure to pay Jeffers more than they'd like.

If the Twins did this, they could re-sign Vasquez for $2 million per season for 2 years giving the Twins a solid bridge until Tait and/or Enrique Jimenez are ready.  With Teel and Quero so young, in addition to prospects like Tait and Jimenez, the Twins catching situation would be solid for years to come.  

I just don't see a scenario where Ryan, Lopez and Ober are all on the Twins to begin the 2026 season.  I think they are selling too low on Pablo Lopez, so the highest chance of a trade where solid value could be realized in return rests with Ryan and Ober.  

[SteveLV]

Why would the ChiSox want Ober or Jeffers?  Just adding up numbers on BBTV is not enough, it isn't like playing Madden 2025 and pulling off trades in GM mode....

[miller761]

If keeping our big 3 SP will fit into the budget for next year I am all for it. I honestly think the Twins can be a plus 500 team if they are able to fill out a competitive bulpen. Every contending team in Al Central is flawed in 1 major area. Why not it be us to make the jump next year with some of the young kids getting their exposure to the big time?

[bean5302]

On 10/19/2025 at 12:44 PM, SteveLV said:

Why would the ChiSox want Ober or Jeffers?  Just adding up numbers on BBTV is not enough, it isn't like playing Madden 2025 and pulling off trades in GM mode....

While you may feel your personal opinion is better than BTV, that tool has been consistently accurate in determining what other teams are willing to pay.

Right now, Ober has a 16.6 surplus value. In line with probably an org #3-5 prospect, something in the borderline top 100. It's a catastrophic decline from where he was at the beginning of 2025 (on par with Joe Ryan at +50ish).

Twins fans are consistently inaccurate in their assessment of the team's talent, overvaluing the players they like and undervaluing the players they don't.

Given Ober's modest value today, I don't see him as a good candidate to be traded. The Twins are better off hanging into him, hoping he rebounds and trying to cash out mid season, IMHO.

[SteveLV]

You did not answer my question:  Why would the ChiSox want Ober and Jeffers?