Are the Twins Actually Poised to Compete in 2026? They're Closer than You Think

[Alex Boxwell]

Image courtesy of © Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images

The mass sell-off at the 2025 MLB trade deadline has had time to marinate a bit, and we’ve started to have a close look at the prospects the Twins brought back by offloading almost half the big-league roster. It was a tough pill to swallow, but it has improved the quality and depth of starting pitching in the organization.

The most luxurious expense in the free-agent market is starting pitching. To acquire big-league-caliber starting pitching on the open market, teams will always have to overspend and take on what will eventually be “bad money”. 

The additions of Mick Abel and Taj Bradley give the Twins a level of depth in that prime position, at a price that most teams would envy. This gives Pablo López and Joe Ryan the ability to anchor the 2026 rotation, followed by a bevy of options to fill out the last three spots. 

If Bailey Ober is still on the roster, he will almost certainly be in the rotation out of spring training. However, with how his 2025 has gone and the options the Twins now possess, I wouldn’t be surprised if he carries a short leash into 2026 (unless, of course, either López or Ryan is traded over the winter). 

With Ober the incumbent for the third rotation spot, there are some options for the last two spots. More trades are certainly on the table, but this regime has proven less than eager to address the rotation via free agency, unless it’s a one year ‘prove it’ kind of deal.

That leaves us with Bradley, Abel, Zebby Matthews, David Festa and Simeon Woods Richardson. All of them are pre-arbitration, which gives the Twins the enviable position of having quality starting pitching for less than $25 million a year. Between those six, if one or two of them take a step forward with their development, this team starts to become a threat. The bullpen is a question mark, but the free agent market is much more effective to get Band-Aids for your bullpen, rather than your starting rotation. 

This team is far from “complete,” but there is a foundation here of controllable arms that should give the fan base some optimism heading into 2026. Before any arbitration hearings, the Twins' 2026 payroll is $67 million—likely a chunk higher, since Joe Ryan should do well in arbitration. Even in the reign of the penurious Pohlads, there’s a lot of meat on the bone to acquire talent where it fits.

With payroll flexibility and a slew of exciting bats coming through the system, 2026 should be an exciting team. Now, I wouldn’t go running to your favorite betting app to put money on them to win the AL Central, but weirder things have happened with a young and hungry roster.

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[Fire Dan Gladden]

Lopez and Ryan will be moved in the offseason, that is as close to 100% as you can get right now.

"If" all 20 of the Twins prospects, 1st, and 2nd year players excel, then the Twins will be poised for success in 2026.

[Parfigliano]

Teams that can't hit don't win.  They can't hit.

[PP24]

Optimism. I wasn’t sure that was still allowed here. 

[The Great Hambino]

20 minutes ago, Alex Boxwell said:

The bullpen is a question mark, but the free agent market is much more effective to get Band-Aids for your bullpen, rather than your starting rotation. 

 

 

I do not understand this idea that the bullpen will be fine next year just because pieces can be found cheaply.  You can round out a pen with those types of acquisitions, but you can't build an entire one - including an entire back end of one - from scratch, which is what they are doing. 

Who is going straight from failed starting prospect or scrap-heap free agent and immediately and reliably filling the role of closer, or even primary setup man?  That's what you're counting on happening if you think the Twins can be competitive next year.

For those that keep on saying that bullpens can easily be rebuilt on the fly, please provide an example of someone restocking an entire bullpen this way in a year.  And no, the bullpen that got traded away at the deadline is not an example of this as it was developed over the course of multiple seasons.  And it really didn't turn out to be that good anyway, which is part of the reason why the fire sale took place

[nicksaviking]

25 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Lopez and Ryan will be moved in the offseason, that is as close to 100% as you can get right now.
 

I thought that after the trade deadline, but not now after the ownership is (unfortunately) resolved. Surely by coincidence 😒MLB made the A's bump up their payroll after finally leaving Oakland. They'll certainly do the same to Tampa once that's resolved. The Twins ownership drama didn't drag out as long as those two situations, but the other owners are NOT going to be happy if the Twins, who are solidly in a mid market, not small market, start rolling with a sub 100M payroll while rolling in the other owners' revenue sharing handouts. And those other owners still have to approve the Twins two new hedge fund investors. 

There's probably little chance those investors will get approved ensuring the Pohlad's stay in the league, if they know the Pohlad's will continue to use the Twins to funnel their free MLB money into their failing real estate businesses. I'll bet 100M is going to be the magic number, and they'll need Lopez to hit that.  And maybe they'll have to give Ryan and unnecessary extension to make it too.

[jorgenswest]

To answer the question I think the Twins are poised to compete in 2026. They have work to do.

• I don’t think they have anyone in the current bullpen that will step up to replace the relievers they lost. They are going to have to find most of those pieces among their many starters. Maybe it is Bradley, Festa and Priellipp heading. Look at the pens of the Mariners and Brewers. They have both continued to trade off successful relievers and replaced with players acquired in trade or even off waivers. 
• They need to spend prospect capital to acquire a top of the line up bat. They have the prospect depth to make this kind of trade.
• They need to push their payroll up towards the league median. That really is the only way the Pohlad’s can follow through with their promise of commitment. There is no other measure.

Will Falvey and the Pohlad’s follow through? We are inundated with places to debate that. I highly doubt it but let’s debate that elsewhere. I would be interested in a different debate here. Do they have enough talent and resources to build a competitive team next year? 

 

[nicksaviking]

15 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

I do not understand this idea that the bullpen will be fine next year just because pieces can be found cheaply.  You can round out a pen with those types of acquisitions, but you can't build an entire one - including an entire back end of one - from scratch, which is what they are doing. 

Who is going straight from failed starting prospect or scrap-heap free agent and immediately and reliably filling the role of closer, or even primary setup man?  That's what you're counting on happening if you think the Twins can be competitive next year.

For those that keep on saying that bullpens can easily be rebuilt on the fly, please provide an example of someone restocking an entire bullpen this way in a year.  And no, the bullpen that got traded away at the deadline is not an example of this as it was developed over the course of multiple seasons.  And it really didn't turn out to be that good anyway, which is part of the reason why the fire sale took place

Agree. The bullpen is the HARDEST area to fix in free agency. By nature, relievers are victims or beneficiaries of small sample sizes and they are flakey and often unreliable; if they weren't, they'd be starters. Most of the best bullpens in the league, including the Twins best bullpens historically, are made using trial and error with guys who have been in the system for at least a couple of seasons. It's hardly ever clear how and where these guys best fit into your usage plan until you've experimented with them for a bit.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

5 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I thought that after the trade deadline, but not now after the ownership is (unfortunately) resolved. Surely by coincidence 😒MLB made the A's bump up their payroll after finally leaving Oakland. They'll certainly do the same to Tampa once that's resolved. The Twins ownership drama didn't drag out as long as those two situations, but the other owners are NOT going to be happy if the Twins, who are solidly in a mid market, not small market, start rolling with a sub 100M payroll while rolling in the other owners' revenue sharing handouts. And those other owners still have to approve the Twins two new hedge fund investors. 

There's probably little chance those investors will get approved ensuring the Pohlad's stay in the league, if they know the Pohlad's will continue to use the Twins to funnel their free MLB money into their failing real estate businesses. I'll bet 100M is going to be the magic number, and they'll need Lopez to hit that.  And maybe they'll have to give Ryan and unnecessary extension to make it too.

I do not agree. I have already seen multiple outlets scuttlebutt saying they fully expect the Twins to have the lowest payroll in baseball next year. If the Chicago White Sox can languish at $80m in payroll, why would the Twins be given a higher bar?

[sweetmusicviola16]

43 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Teams that can't hit don't win.  They can't hit.

They can't hit. They can't field. They don't excel at fundamentals. They have an awful bullpen relief corps. And right now starting pitching is not dominant. Matthews and Festa have only showed they can pitch to a 5.00 ERA at this point. Richardson is not even a 5 inning pitcher. I fail to see how this is a competitive team. Unless you consider competing for 5th place competitive. 

[Road trip]

48 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Teams that can't hit don't win.  They can't hit.

24th in runs scored this year.

20th in ERA.

And of course both of those numbers are worse than they appear after trading away a large hunk of the roster last month.

We also know the fielding is bad.

And the base running..

I guess we can hang hope on prospects for next year, but that would require a lot of Kool-Aid...  

 

..mixed with vodka.

 

[In My La Z boy]

8 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

To answer the question I think the Twins are poised to compete in 2026. They have work to do.

• I don’t think they have anyone in the current bullpen that will step up to replace the relievers they lost. They are going to have to find most of those pieces among their many starters. Maybe it is Bradley, Festa and Priellipp heading. Look at the pens of the Mariners and Brewers. They have both continued to trade off successful relievers and replaced with players acquired in trade or even off waivers. 
• They need to spend prospect capital to acquire a top of the line up bat. They have the prospect depth to make this kind of trade.
• They need to push their payroll up towards the league median. That really is the only way the Pohlad’s can follow through with their promise of commitment. There is no other measure.

Will Falvey and the Pohlad’s follow through? We are inundated with places to debate that. I highly doubt it but let’s debate that elsewhere. I would be interested in a different debate here. Do they have enough talent and resources to build a competitive team next year? 

 

Absolutely!
With no off season trades we look to have a deep, high caliber starting 5 next spring, with maybe the first couple men out going to our depleted bullpen?
Young guys are the key to answering this question. How many of our top 100 crack the roster, and how good can Keaschall Lee and Lewis be in the infield and in the lineup? Can Byron have another year like this, and will Wallner become as good as we think he can become? The A's give me hope. They have some good looking young kids over there. 

[Whitey333]

The article pushes hope and hype almost as much as the Twins.  What has Falvey done to keep hus job so long?  Not much?  Baldelli same thing.  Not much.  But here they are just puppets of the Pohlad ownership group.  Missed playoffs now 4 of past 5 years.  Worst attendance at Target field ever.  So Falvey tears down the roster that he built.  A proven failure.  The payroll dollars seem ok but how he distributed them was terrible.  It seems likely more trades are coming in the off season.  I would doubt very much that Lopez is back next year with his 21 million due him next year.  I honestly hope they are competitive next year but I just don't see it.

[twinzcynic]

How sure are we that this wasn't a Rand Ball piece accidentally published by a different author's name?

[DJL44]

In order to compete next season, they need three of Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Culpepper and Jenkins to force their way to the majors. I think one of the four might but expecting three to do it is unlikely. They also need Royce Lewis to hit, find a 1B and add three effective relievers.

I think they will trade Joe Ryan and probably Bailey Ober as well, but I think they'll keep Pablo Lopez around as a mentor to the younger pitchers. I think Larnach is likely gone. Vazquez only returns if he signs for $1M. Their highest paid players would be Lopez ($22M), Buxton ($15M) and Jeffers ($9M). Lewis ($3M) and Topa ($2M) would be their only other players who make more than the minimum. That's an $82M payroll when you include the $10M they owe Correa.

If they add veterans, I hope they add defense like they did with Bader. Lewis and Buxton are the only plus defenders on the roster.

[P Meyer]

51 minutes ago, PP24 said:

Optimism. I wasn’t sure that was still allowed here. 

There is optimism and then there is this article. 

[Dawgzilla]

If the pitchers they got in trades were that good, wouldn't they already be on the big club?!  Duh!  Projections also sometimes don't meet the facts or results.  Almost always, you will know when you have someone legit, not always, but mostly!  Twins wait forever to bring up their prospect "studs" too (using that term loosely).

 

Lastly, if you don't want to make a commitment to winning for longstanding, Twins fans, then sell the team!  So, your family only make a 700+ million profit (after debt and original purchase price)....sell.  Oh, lastly, lastly.......MLB needs a salary cap ceiling and floor regardless if Bryce Harper's bemoaning and crying....over his MILLIONS...playing a kid's game!!!!!!!!!

Edited August 21, 2025 by Dawgzilla
Corrections

[The Great Hambino]

16 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I do not agree. I have already seen multiple outlets scuttlebutt saying they fully expect the Twins to have the lowest payroll in baseball next year. If the Chicago White Sox can languish at $80m in payroll, why would the Twins be given a higher bar?

Yeah, MLB only pressured the A's after three straight years of finishing dead last in payroll.  I haven't seen anything that would suggest MLB being proactive in preventing a team from running a low payroll - they'd likely have to actually put out that low of a payroll multiple times before any action took place

[The Great Hambino]

13 minutes ago, In My La Z boy said:

Absolutely!
With no off season trades we look to have a deep, high caliber starting 5 next spring, with maybe the first couple men out going to our depleted bullpen?
Young guys are the key to answering this question. How many of our top 100 crack the roster, and how good can Keaschall Lee and Lewis be in the infield and in the lineup? Can Byron have another year like this, and will Wallner become as good as we think he can become? The A's give me hope. They have some good looking young kids over there. 

Having been down this road before, all I'm going to say is this:

I hope you're right!

[nicksaviking]

30 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I do not agree. I have already seen multiple outlets scuttlebutt saying they fully expect the Twins to have the lowest payroll in baseball next year. If the Chicago White Sox can languish at $80m in payroll, why would the Twins be given a higher bar?

Because the White Sox are also trying to get a new stadium. They had a payroll of 183M in 2023 and then August of that year they announced they were looking into a new location. Payroll has been dropping along with passive aggressive implications that they may relocate.

The Twins already got what they wanted. No doubt they'll be amongst the lowest payrolls next year, but I don't think they will have carte blanche like the other teams that are actively looking for stadiums.

[TwinsDr2021]

If you say you have depth for starting pitchers in the minors or prospects you likely have none.

For the most part this same exact article could have been written prior to the last two years. I mean hasn't it been said Festa, Matthews, SWR, Lewis, Lee, Wallner, Larnach and the Twins amazing prospects were the key to 24 and 25? I mean the Twins got 127 starts last year from Lopez, Ober, Ryan, SWR and Festa. In 23 they got 139 from Lopez, Ober, Ryan Gray and Maeda. They have 113 out of 127 so far Ryan, Ober, Paddack, SWR, Lopez and Festa. Plus remind me again which prospects have turned out for the last three years/ (Keashall so far)

If the Twins can run out a few real good players (Lopez, Ryan, Buxton) and bunch of replacement level players and the fans talk about the next year or year after that, ever darn year, and the fans don't hold the team accountable, well that is on us (or really those that live in fantasy land)

[MGX]

This team could easily compete in '26... If the Pohlads had sold the team & the new owners were invested in building a good team. 

Since that didn't happen we have a lot of question marks... while I like the Starting pitching we have currently the speculation that Lopez will be traded feels like a very real possibility. It's possible maybe even Ryan. Another part of that is will Falvey actually push other teams for the absolute best offer & most importantly if he doesn't get that offer be willing to say no. The lineup has plenty of questions starting with SS - Brooks Lee is getting every chance to claim that spot, but his offensive production is lacking at this point. Royce Lewis is an even bigger question mark to me. He has a long swing & yet he still tries to pull everything. That is correctable, but why is it still an issue when he's been in the organization this long. There are other big questions to - who pairs with Jeffers behind the plate? The bottom line is the position player group needs plenty of work.

With all that said it's possible that they could still be competitive in '26, but there are a lot questions to find the right answer between now & next spring & nothing has changed with the management of this team from the Owners to the FO to the on field manager so it makes it hard to imagine things changing much.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

"If" all 20 of the Twins prospects, 1st, and 2nd year players excel, then the Twins will be poised for success in 2026.

Yes, and the likelihood is less than 40% of those 20 will. They'll find 6-8 guys out of 20 and hope they find another 6-8 guys out of 20 in 2027.

[jmlease1]

The Twins might be positioned to compete in 2026, or at least be able to compete if they choose to...but there's little evidence that will be the path they take.

1) they would need to hold on to Lopez & Ryan, and right now the smart money is on both of them going out the door. Lopez for additional payroll savings, and Ryan because the return will be very high as they continue to re-work the rebuild...and it will also save more money, since Ryan is due a hefty raise. There's nothing to show that the Pohlads won't continue to cut spending, new partners or no, and every reason to believe they will, especially since they managed to leak word around that they were set to lose $40M this season with a payroll around $135M. Now...do I believe them on that? I don't trust the Pohlads on anything related to finances, but it seemed clearly designed to try and get away with "right-sizing" the payroll back under $100M.

2) they would need to actually spend some money to try and plug some of the holes in the lineup. 1B is a real deficit; handing the job to Clemens isn't a sign of a team trying to compete. Could they ask Wallner to move there? Sure, but we simply don't know if he can be good defensively there and even then you're just moving a hole. Now, the Twins do have prospects that might be capable of jumping in the OF in 2026, but a team looking to compete in 2026 isn't going to run out an OF with Byron Buxton and a bunch of unproven rookies...or cast-offs that have so far flunked their early tries in MLB. (I expect Larnach to be gone) We also need a backup catcher (assuming Jeffers isn't sent packing for more salary-savings), because a team trying to contend isn't going to run out Mickey Gasper there either. While I still like Brooks Lee, and Lewis has enough talent that I still think he can hit again (and his defense looks quality), neither are sure things.

3) the bullpen is unlikely to get fixed by 2026. It takes luck and money to patch bullpen holes via FA; we haven't shown much luck in that department, and until proven otherwise, I expect no real spending. There are internal candidates, but right now we don't even know who they really are in terms of moving a minor-league starter or 2 into a bullpen role, and even then there's no guarantee it will work. The closest thing we have to proven relievers is Sands, Tonkin, and Topa...after that we need to find 4 more, and that's assuming those guys are actually good & healthy next season instead of ok/injured.

I'd feel very good about the rotation if Lopez & Ryan were there to anchor it, but why should I believe?

[Vanimal46]

First time being a fan of a Pohlad owned team? There’s no chance the payroll flexibility gained after the sell off will be re-invested in the team. First, the FA class looks especially weak this year. Second, they’re not going to invest in any contracts beyond 2026 with the upcoming CBA negotiation. 

I expect more of the same. 1 year cheap as you can get contracts. Trading away more players and end up with 90+ losses again. 

[DJL44]

Better question, will anyone be watching? The ESPN TV rumors would make me a radio fan again.

[Craig Arko]

Yeah, maybe. I doubt it.

[CRF]

Not gonna happen. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

2 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Lopez and Ryan will be moved in the offseason, that is as close to 100% as you can get right now.

"If" all 20 of the Twins prospects, 1st, and 2nd year players excel, then the Twins will be poised for success in 2026.

Let's say they are both moved. I don't see that happening, but let's play it out. Both are traded.

 

What are the returns? Do you think they are trading both for players that could be up in 2028? Or do you think they are getting guys for 2026?

[Brandon]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

I thought that after the trade deadline, but not now after the ownership is (unfortunately) resolved. Surely by coincidence 😒MLB made the A's bump up their payroll after finally leaving Oakland. They'll certainly do the same to Tampa once that's resolved. The Twins ownership drama didn't drag out as long as those two situations, but the other owners are NOT going to be happy if the Twins, who are solidly in a mid market, not small market, start rolling with a sub 100M payroll while rolling in the other owners' revenue sharing handouts. And those other owners still have to approve the Twins two new hedge fund investors. 

There's probably little chance those investors will get approved ensuring the Pohlad's stay in the league, if they know the Pohlad's will continue to use the Twins to funnel their free MLB money into their failing real estate businesses. I'll bet 100M is going to be the magic number, and they'll need Lopez to hit that.  And maybe they'll have to give Ryan and unnecessary extension to make it too.

The owners don’t care what other owners do.  The players union…….