Are the Twins Actually Poised to Compete in 2026? They're Closer than You Think

[cjvirnig]

On 8/21/2025 at 1:14 PM, jmlease1 said:

That presumes the Twins are allowed to have a payroll over $95M by ownership. If they are, then yes, they should be keeping the starting pitching and trying to extend Ryan, even if it only gets them 1 year of his FA. But if they were claiming to be losing $40M with a payroll of $135M, Correa's dead money on payroll for 2026, and attendance guaranteed to be down next season (the only way they crack 1.5M next season is for them to discount tickets and have fan invasions from MKE, TOR, KC, CWS, etc) why should anyone believe they'll authorize a payroll north of $100M?

Never believe anything the Pohlads say. They suckered us once this decade by investing in the team, then pulled the rug out, at least in part because they are utter bunglers when it comes to their media rights and growing fan support.

My only caveat is that we don't know (and will likely never know) the exact nature of the Pohlads' debt situation. Is it possible the debt is purely baseball related? Sure. It's also possible the family borrowed against the valuation of the franchise to finance one of their other business ventures. Gleeman & Bonnes even suggest this possibility in a recent podcast. So...if the debt is baseball related, I agree with you that a payroll north of $100 mil is unlikely for 2026. If, however, that debt was incurred outside of baseball operations, the payroll situation COULD conceivably improve assuming the two new investment groups will be helping the family pay off their debt. 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Sorry. I'm not buying it.

[HrbieFan]

On 8/21/2025 at 12:14 PM, Parfigliano said:

Teams that can't hit don't win.  They can't hit.

And teams with no proven relief pitchers don't win either. Pohlads will waste the final years of Bux

[jorgenswest]

33 minutes ago, HrbieFan said:

And teams with no proven relief pitchers don't win either. Pohlads will waste the final years of Bux

Milwaukee the last two years is pretty close. In the end they looked good but look back at the previous few years of those relievers heading into the season.

[TopGunn#22]

As the Twins are currently constituted they will finish 4th in the A.L. Central next year, exactly where they are now.

However, when you play in the A.L. Central, you should ALWAYS be in contention.  This is the sad situation we Twins fans find ourselves with our present ownership, FO and Manager.  Despite playing in a division that is always in play, the Twins, as currently constructed, are a 4th place team with the 5th place team being one of the 2 worst teams in baseball.  

However, after the trade deadline bloodletting, there are particular areas of depth and particular areas of massive holes.  It remains to be seen if the current leadership group of the Twins can make the needed trades and possibly FA signings to put together a contending team.  Here are a couple moves as suggested by people on BBTV that would balance the Twins roster and make them better.

Cactus1017 posted this 3-way trade:

Giants get: Joe Ryan 29 y/o SP 68.2 value       Mets get:  Jarren Duran 28 y/o OF 64.4 value

Twins get:  Nolan Mclean 23 y/o SP 19.7  Jett Williams 20 y/o SS 23.1  Kyson Witherspoon 20 y/o SP  17.6  Carsen Benge  21 y/o OF  19.9. 

The Twins give up 68.2 of value with Joe Ryan and bring back 80.3 in value.  It's the expected overpay for a quality veteran SP on the right side of 30 years old.  McLean just made his MLB debut with the Mets and was IMPRESSIVE.  The other 3 are all very close to the majors and solid talents.  Jett Williams is blocked by Lindor.  He wouldn't be blocked by Brooks Lee.  The Twins bring back TWO young pitchers as well as a SS and OF.  

Our own Doc Gast posted this trade:

Giants get Joe Ryan 68.2    White Sox get Bryce Eldridge 51.5 and Dakota Jordan 8.2 (59.7 total)

Twins get:  Kyle Teel 22 y/o Catcher  24.8 value.  Jose Butto 26 y/o LHRP 11.1.  Colson Montgomery 22 y/o SS 15.7.  Jon Cannon 24 y/o SP 16.9.  Total Value returned 68.5.  

The Mets trade brings back more overall value and I like it because it brings back 2 quality young arms, especially Nolan Mclean who has already debuted in MLB and impressively at that.  I like Doc Gast's trade because it primarily brings back Kyle Teel, our Catcher of the Future (who the White Sox can afford to trade) as well as 3 other talented young players, each of whom has made their MLB debut.  SS Colson Montgomery is especially intriguing.  

I would toss out this potential deal as well:  Red Sox get Joe Ryan 68.2 and SWR (value unknown) for Jarren Duran 64.4 and 20 y/o LHSP Payton Tolle 20.0.  We get 84.4 value back.  Duran is a fixture in LF and at the top of the order and Buxton insurance.  Tolle is already at AAA Worcester.  He would start at St. Paul next spring but I'd bet on seeing him in the Twins rotation no later than June 1st.  He would give us a LH in the rotation and he's NINE years younger than Ryan. 

The Red Sox get Ryan to slot behind Crochett in their "Win Now" rotation with Bello as a solid #3 and whatever value SWR provides them, either as a somewhat dependable #5 SP or a long relief option. 

Joe Ryan currently has a value of 68.2 in BBTV.  Tarik Skubal is at 68.6.  Would you trade Ryan straight up for Skubal?  I would.  Pablo Lopez is only valued at 17.8.  Lopez could easily be the equal of Ryan next season or better.  He just costs more.  With all the depth the Twins have as rotation hopefuls, it may very well be time to trade Ryan to fill massive gaps in the current Twins roster.  His value will never be higher.   

One or two trades this winter won't put the Twins over the top.  I could see 4 trades being made to plug the holes and improve our overall talent.  Trading for Yandy Diaz who is a solid RH bat at 1B and carries a BBTV of just 6.2 would be an excellent acquisition.  If Catcher and 1B was settled with a rotation that retained Lopez with guys like Ober, Abel, Matthews, Bradley, Festa and others and one trade or FA signing to bring in a veteran closer like Ryan Walker 11.2 value SF Giants, Ryan Helsley, Kirby Yates etc... then I could see the Twins competing for a division title or Wild Card. 

It is highly unlikely the Tigers will pay Skubal what he wants after the 2026 season.  With a strike looming in 2027 the Tigers could actually trade him this off season.  How formidable are the Tigers without Skubal at the top of their rotation??  And if they DO pay him, what are the ramifications for the rest of the Tiger roster in 2027 and beyond.

Again, when you play in the A.L. Central, you should NEVER be out of the running.    

[sun]

On 8/21/2025 at 8:59 PM, Vanimal46 said:

Wow. What a cool totally made up story in your head. Morneau never played for manager Tom Kelly. He debuted in 2003 at 22 years old when Ron Gardenhire was at the helm. 

Thanks for the correction.  So it was Gardenhire that had the talk with Morneau that helped to turn his hitting around. That it was Gardenhire doesn't change the fact that Morneau hit .239 playing in 141 games in 2005 and then hit .321 playing in 157 games in 2006. That just goes to show how much a player can improve from one season to the next. So much BS from the naysayers who think that players & the team can't dramatically improve from one season to the next. If they're saying that a team can't go from last one year to being first the next then think again because that only shows that they have a selective memory of negativism regarding the Twins history & about the Pohlads too. More fans should learn how to think outside of the box in order to not always be so pessimistic about the Twins future.  More should actually try to learn from the past that anything is possible..

[jorgenswest]

I don’t think the Twins should make trades where they give up quality for quantity. They don’t need more depth in their prospect pool. They need elite players and must get top pitching prospects back. Let’s not redo the Santana deal.

They don’t need to trade Lopez or Ryan.

[Parfigliano]

3 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I don’t think the Twins should make trades where they give up quality for quantity. They don’t need more depth in their prospect pool. They need elite players and must get top pitching prospects back. Let’s not redo the Santana deal.

They don’t need to trade Lopez or Ryan.

They don't need to but the Pohlad's alleged money woes say one will be gone.

[yeahyabetcha]

On 8/21/2025 at 5:39 PM, DocBauer said:

That's what you have? I'm sorry, but what are you looking at?

[Maybe I need to create a daily Blog or fill out an application)

The Twins are between $90-95M right now with arbitration figured in.

.A move of Larnach, which I expect to happen, trade possible, puts the Twins around $90M.

And all you have is the Twins might be good and close to competing if they keep their rotation in check and rebuild their bullpen?

Will wonders never cease?

HOW do they do that?

What about the rest of the roster and how to build a lineup? 

Oh, that's not part of the OP?

I'm really sorry. I'm about the nicest person you would ever meet. And I bite my to tongue daily here on TD with some comments I see.

But I'm about to draw a line on the product/society that we have where a PAID OP can simply say: "the Twins are closer than you think if they just don't trade away their best pitchers".

I mean...I'm trying so hard to not be mean. That's not me or my style. But come on!

 

Are you assuming Wallner, Lee, Lewis will not and will never improve?

[tony&rodney]

4 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

As the Twins are currently constituted they will finish 4th in the A.L. Central next year, exactly where they are now.

However, when you play in the A.L. Central, you should ALWAYS be in contention.  This is the sad situation we Twins fans find ourselves with our present ownership, FO and Manager.  Despite playing in a division that is always in play, the Twins, as currently constructed, are a 4th place team with the 5th place team being one of the 2 worst teams in baseball.  

However, after the trade deadline bloodletting, there are particular areas of depth and particular areas of massive holes.  It remains to be seen if the current leadership group of the Twins can make the needed trades and possibly FA signings to put together a contending team.  Here are a couple moves as suggested by people on BBTV that would balance the Twins roster and make them better.

Cactus1017 posted this 3-way trade:

Giants get: Joe Ryan 29 y/o SP 68.2 value       Mets get:  Jarren Duran 28 y/o OF 64.4 value

Twins get:  Nolan Mclean 23 y/o SP 19.7  Jett Williams 20 y/o SS 23.1  Kyson Witherspoon 20 y/o SP  17.6  Carsen Benge  21 y/o OF  19.9. 

The Twins give up 68.2 of value with Joe Ryan and bring back 80.3 in value.  It's the expected overpay for a quality veteran SP on the right side of 30 years old.  McLean just made his MLB debut with the Mets and was IMPRESSIVE.  The other 3 are all very close to the majors and solid talents.  Jett Williams is blocked by Lindor.  He wouldn't be blocked by Brooks Lee.  The Twins bring back TWO young pitchers as well as a SS and OF.  

Our own Doc Gast posted this trade:

Giants get Joe Ryan 68.2    White Sox get Bryce Eldridge 51.5 and Dakota Jordan 8.2 (59.7 total)

Twins get:  Kyle Teel 22 y/o Catcher  24.8 value.  Jose Butto 26 y/o LHRP 11.1.  Colson Montgomery 22 y/o SS 15.7.  Jon Cannon 24 y/o SP 16.9.  Total Value returned 68.5.  

The Mets trade brings back more overall value and I like it because it brings back 2 quality young arms, especially Nolan Mclean who has already debuted in MLB and impressively at that.  I like Doc Gast's trade because it primarily brings back Kyle Teel, our Catcher of the Future (who the White Sox can afford to trade) as well as 3 other talented young players, each of whom has made their MLB debut.  SS Colson Montgomery is especially intriguing.  

I would toss out this potential deal as well:  Red Sox get Joe Ryan 68.2 and SWR (value unknown) for Jarren Duran 64.4 and 20 y/o LHSP Payton Tolle 20.0.  We get 84.4 value back.  Duran is a fixture in LF and at the top of the order and Buxton insurance.  Tolle is already at AAA Worcester.  He would start at St. Paul next spring but I'd bet on seeing him in the Twins rotation no later than June 1st.  He would give us a LH in the rotation and he's NINE years younger than Ryan. 

The Red Sox get Ryan to slot behind Crochett in their "Win Now" rotation with Bello as a solid #3 and whatever value SWR provides them, either as a somewhat dependable #5 SP or a long relief option. 

Joe Ryan currently has a value of 68.2 in BBTV.  Tarik Skubal is at 68.6.  Would you trade Ryan straight up for Skubal?  I would.  Pablo Lopez is only valued at 17.8.  Lopez could easily be the equal of Ryan next season or better.  He just costs more.  With all the depth the Twins have as rotation hopefuls, it may very well be time to trade Ryan to fill massive gaps in the current Twins roster.  His value will never be higher.   

One or two trades this winter won't put the Twins over the top.  I could see 4 trades being made to plug the holes and improve our overall talent.  Trading for Yandy Diaz who is a solid RH bat at 1B and carries a BBTV of just 6.2 would be an excellent acquisition.  If Catcher and 1B was settled with a rotation that retained Lopez with guys like Ober, Abel, Matthews, Bradley, Festa and others and one trade or FA signing to bring in a veteran closer like Ryan Walker 11.2 value SF Giants, Ryan Helsley, Kirby Yates etc... then I could see the Twins competing for a division title or Wild Card. 

It is highly unlikely the Tigers will pay Skubal what he wants after the 2026 season.  With a strike looming in 2027 the Tigers could actually trade him this off season.  How formidable are the Tigers without Skubal at the top of their rotation??  And if they DO pay him, what are the ramifications for the rest of the Tiger roster in 2027 and beyond.

Again, when you play in the A.L. Central, you should NEVER be out of the running.    

We will never know who is available, so all names are up for discussion until another team says no. I think the White Sox say NO on Montgomery or Teel for example.

So the ideas will flow freely. How about Max Clark? Jesus Made? Jeferson Quero? Harry Ford? Franklin Arias? On and on it goes and where it stops nobody knows. We hope it doesn't end up like the Varland trade (with apologies to those who believe the Twins fleeced the Blue Jays).

[TopGunn#22]

That's part of the fun tony&rodney.  The Speculation.   MAYBE the CWS say no on Teel.  But with both Teel and Edgar Quero they have a surplus of talented, young Catchers, an asset they can leverage.  In the trade that was suggested on BBTV it would come down to what the White Sox think of Bryce Eldridge.  He's the key to any White Sox interest.  But you can't deny the Giants would love to have Joe Ryan.

I like looking at the proposed trades on BBTV and yes, some of them are ridiculous.  But some of them make some sense and in the broader sense, it's clear the Twins need to make some more moves this winter if they hope to compete.  As the roster sits now, they won't compete and in the A.L. Central that is a sin that cannot be forgiven.  

One way or another, the Tigers have to do something with Tarik Skubal.  Sign him for a huge amount and see the deleterious effect that could have on the rest of their roster, or, trade him for a package that allows them to compete beyond 2026.  The Twins did it with Correa, and now have Brooks Lee in the present and Kalen Culpepper and Marek Houston in the near future. 

The Twins have the same issue with Joe Ryan.  Sign him to an extension, or use him to plug holes on the major league roster.  The Tigers are going to have to pay Skubal a LOT more than Joe Ryan.  How the Tigers handle the Skubal FA after the 2026 season could make or break them.  

 

[DocBauer]

2 hours ago, yeahyabetcha said:

Are you assuming Wallner, Lee, Lewis will not and will never improve?

No, I absolutely think they can and hopefully will improve. We need them to. And we need more than just them to improve and contribute. 

But keep the rotation arms and rebuild an empty pen and we can compete? Not a word of HOW to re-build the pen? Not a word how they might compete with an underperforming lineup? 

That was my objection.

[yeahyabetcha]

14 hours ago, DocBauer said:

No, I absolutely think they can and hopefully will improve. We need them to. And we need more than just them to improve and contribute. 

But keep the rotation arms and rebuild an empty pen and we can compete? Not a word of HOW to re-build the pen? Not a word how they might compete with an underperforming lineup? 

That was my objection.

Rebuilding the pen will be a project, but I don’t think it is impossible.

What is it going to take to get the underperforming lineup, performing? If that happens with what looks to be a decent starting rotation, why couldn’t they compete?