cjvirnig

As soon as Rocco was fired, I thought to myself that if I were Falvey, I would demand a contract extension and pay raise or else quit. Without additional job security, it's pretty obvious his head was next on the chopping block (as Nick points out). As for Tom Pohlad -- if you parse his words carefully (and read between the lines), what he SEEMS to be saying is basically: when the on the field product gets back to a place where it's legitimately competitive, payroll will be beefed up. I'm sure he means well by putting so much emphasis on the 2026 season bc the quicker the team turns things around, the quicker more investment will be made by the Pohlads. But as Nick points out, it's not only too late, this strategy doesn't match reality. The 2026 team is bound to struggle -- and will likely struggle UNTIL ownership ups the investment. It's a chicken/egg scenario.

Skip Schumaker very likely wouldn't even take an interview if one were requested. He voluntarily quit the Marlins gig because he was fed up working for an inept organization. My guess is he replaces Bochy as Rangers manager. Or possibly goes to San Francisco. He's out of the Twins' league.

I think your position player ideas and prospective rotation are pretty close to what we'll see. Obviously, Matthews and Bradley will have to earn their spots in spring training. I disagree somewhat with the bullpen. First off, I'm absolutely NOT picking up Justin Topa's club option for 2026. He's a huge liability, and it would be easy to find better pieces either internally or in free agency. I do think Festa could be an easy transition into a bullpen arm if need be -- Matthews, too. I like Zebby as a starter, but in the long run, I could definitely see him as a closer (he's reminiscent of a young Jonathan Papelbon). SWR may the odd man out. He really only works as a #5 type SP, but I don't think he's going to be able to win that job given the rotation depth the Twins have accumulated. Similarly, Sim doesn't have the power or velo one normally associates with a reliever. He certainly wouldn't be a late inning arm. At very best, he could slot in as middle/long relief. IMO, Falvey should grab at least two veteran relief arms in free agency.

While trading Ryan and Lopez is admittedly likely, I personally disagree that it's the right decision. For starters, quality starting pitching is the single most elusive puzzle piece to acquire when building a roster. When you have it, you should never get rid of it. Secondly, the Twins rotation could very easily be above average in 2026 -- perhaps even well above average when you consider the impressive (and rare) depth they have at the position. Why not start the rebuild there? Falvey could easily acquire 2-3 quality bullpen arms in free agency & the team can fill out the rest of the pen internally. Yes, the offense/position player side of the coin is full of question marks. But...if guys like Lewis, Lee, Wallner, etc. surprise us and take steps forward next year, the team could potentially exceed expectations when paired with an already solid pitching staff. Conversely, if you trade Ryan & Lopez and go for a complete rebuild, there's no guarantee this team will return to contention in 2-3 years. They could just as easily be awful for 5, 6, or 7 years. We see that all the time with failed rebuilds in places like Pittsburgh, Colorado, Miami, etc.

My only caveat is that we don't know (and will likely never know) the exact nature of the Pohlads' debt situation. Is it possible the debt is purely baseball related? Sure. It's also possible the family borrowed against the valuation of the franchise to finance one of their other business ventures. Gleeman & Bonnes even suggest this possibility in a recent podcast. So...if the debt is baseball related, I agree with you that a payroll north of $100 mil is unlikely for 2026. If, however, that debt was incurred outside of baseball operations, the payroll situation COULD conceivably improve assuming the two new investment groups will be helping the family pay off their debt.

If (and it's an enormous IF at this point) the Pohlads allow Derek to make the call on baseball decisions this winter, it really comes down to whether he believes guys like Lewis, Lee, and Wallner are good enough to invest in. If the answer is yes, then not only should there be no selloff of starting pitching, but Joe Ryan should be extended. If the answer is no, then it would make sense to trade Ryan & Lopez and re-orient their contention window for guys like Keaschall, Jenkins, Culpepper, Abel, etc.

I still personally believe the Pohlads will sell the team in 4-5 years when conditions are more satisfactory (and the club's valuation will be appreciably higher). Once their debt is paid off, the next big challenge is securing a new local TV deal. By '29 or '30, they'll have that deal in place -- and MLB will also have new national TV deals in place. By then, the league will also have a new CBA (possibly with some sort of salary cap). I'd imagine the Pohlads will eventually get well north of $2 billion.

On the one hand, Nick is right that catchphrases like "clubhouse culture" are often nebulous and don't really mean anything on the surface. Every team seeks to have a positive clubhouse culture. On the other hand, can anyone realistically deny that SOMETHING was wrong with this team? And I don't just mean the Pohlads. There was something wrong with the roster and/or the "culture." We saw it at the end of 2024 with some sort of issue between Correa and Lewis. This isn't to say they had a dysfunctional clubhouse or anything. There's no evidence of that. The bullpen even appeared to be a close-knit group. But something was lacking. Some sort of internal accountability among the players. If Pablo wants to shed some light on that, more power to him.

From a purely baseball ops perspective, there's only one reason the Twins would trade Ryan and/or Lopez this winter: Falvey doesn't believe guys like Lewis, Wallner, and Lee are good enough to build around in the immediate term. Completing the teardown would then realign their contention timeline with the emergence of guys like Keaschall, Jenkins, Culpepper, Abel, etc. Let's hope the Pohlads allow Derek to make that decision.

Let's not lose sight of the fact that Derek Falvey was hired specifically because it was believed he could establish the pitching pipeline that had long eluded the Twins organization. He has not succeeded in this endeavor. As a consequence of this failure, several trades of top prospects were consummated in an effort to acquire the pitching help that was needed. For me, THIS is the Original Sin of the current regime, superseding the handful of bad trades that have occurred. If Falvey had been more successful at drafting and developing pitching, they never would've needed to trade Luis Arraez or LaMonte Wade Jr or Spencer Steer.

This proves definitively that the Twins were never really "in" on Correa. As the dust settles on the Carlos Correa chapter, I'm still left with one overriding question: as fans, how can we really trust the judgment of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine at this point? Their sin isn't coming up (woefully) short on their Plan A of signing Correa. Rather, their sin was having a totally incorrect and unrealistic Plan A, to begin with. By allowing themselves to be bamboozled down a rabbit hole from which there was no escape, Falvey and Levine ruined their opportunity to make the 2023 Twins a better baseball team (and severely compromised the club's chances of competing for a division title in the process). When you get something as catastrophically wrong as they did with the Correa Sweepstakes, why should we trust them to suddenly get it right next time? Of course, this looks even worse now that we know how Correa ended up with the Twins in the first place. It was actually Scott Boras who approached the Twins, not the other way around. The Twins were Boras's mark right from the start. And wouldn't you know, Falvey and Levine became wooed by the shiny object -- like a star-crossed lover. It's very difficult for me to see how this front office comes back from this. Sure, they'll make some trades. And by virtue of playing in MLB's weakest division, the Twins will probably have a chance to make the playoffs. But none of that absolves Falvey and Levine for this embarrassing boondoggle of an offseason. A year from now when they're formulating their new Plan A -- there's a pretty decent chance that it'll once again be the wrong Plan A.

Obviously, Rocco's use of the pitching staff is the biggest point of contention. Assuming the Twins continue to strategically pull their starters after 4-5 innings, it's absolutely paramount for the front office and coaching staff to get together and completely re-imagine the workflow of the staff. Namely: they need an iron-clad plan that will allow them to effectively bridge the middle innings to get to Lopez and Duran at the end. Option 1 would be to have clearly defined roles for everybody in the bullpen. This is unlikely, however, given the Twins' reliance on analytics and playing the matchups game. Option 2 would be to take a page out of the LA Dodgers playbook and re-think how the rotation and bullpen work together. My suggestion would be for the Twins to have a regular four-man rotation -- with the fifth spot and long relief roles being grouped together. I personally believe the Twins should sign (or trade for) another impact starting pitcher, but for the sake of this example, let's just go with who they currently have on the roster. Under this premise, their 2023 rotation could consist of Mahle, Gray, Ryan, and Maeda. After that -- Ober, Winder, and Woods Richardson would then be grouped together. Based on matchups, each of them would get to start some games in the #5 spot. But more importantly, they'd each be used in long relief to cover most of those middle innings. For some historical context, the Dodgers did this a few years ago when they had Maeda, Ryu, and Urias paired together this way. Sometimes Maeda would start. Sometimes Ryu would start. And sometimes Urias would start. But the most important aspect is that when the starter was removed, Dave Roberts had a very high-quality option to come in and bridge the game to Jansen at the end. Regardless of the specifics (maybe Ober is the #4 starter and it's actually Maeda who would get paired with Winder and Woods Richardson) -- the Twins need a much better process. In 2022, they had no such plan, other than removing the starters early and then simply relying on individual matchups night after night. As we saw, that approach failed miserably.

Still, nobody should downplay what a disaster the 2021 season has been. It has been arguably the most disappointing season in club history relative to expectations. The front office not only whiffed on its free agent pitching acquisitions, but it also whiffed on a few prospects that were traded away only to immediately find success with other clubs. By no means should anyone be fired -- and only rubes would be calling for that at this point. But a couple of key points certainly ARE debatable at this point. 1) This team has fallen light years behind the White Sox and while the Twins are living proof that fortunes can change quickly, it sure seems unlikely that the Twins are going to be able to supplant Chicago for at least 2-3 years. And, 2) Given how disastrously the 2021 season has gone across the board, it's also fair to question the idea that this front office has what it takes to be one of the truly elite units in the game. As Nick points out, they've proven to be wholly competent. And that's worth something, to be sure. But by no means have they proven themselves to be the type of elite front office that can usher the club to consistent quality year after year. Despite the high points of their tenure (2017, 2019, and probably 2020), there have also been a couple of terrible years (2018 and 2021). I suspect we'll learn a lot about the fortitude of this group over the course of the next 12 months.

It's not nihilistic, it's simply looking at the quantitative evidence and realizing that they've gotten quite a bit more wrong than they've gotten right during their tenure. 2018 was a dumpster fire. 2019 was awesome (despite their botching the trade deadline by getting an injured Sam Dyson instead of trading for a desperately needed starter), 2020 doesn't really count, and 2021 is a Chernobyl-like nuclear meltdown. If nothing else, the total lack of consistency from season to season and the violent ups and downs paints a picture of an administration that isn't in very firm control. Certainly, Falvey and Levine should not necessarily be buried for every single one of these missteps, but when it's all taken together as a whole, it's a pretty damning indictment. And if they're just going to let both Berrios and Buxton go for prospects -- good luck selling that to Twins fans.

I'll admit that my take on the front office is through a pessimistic lens whereas yours if from a more optimistic lens. But I still contend that when you add everything up, they've gotten quite a bit more wrong than they've gotten right. -- and that slide is only deepening at this point. In terms of internal prospects they undervalued -- it's more than just Baddoo and Wade. In fact, the ones that REALLY hurt are the pitching prospects they let get away. According to Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic, former Twins pitching prospect Luis Gil is now the #4 prospect in the Yankees organization. There is also Nick Anderson of the Rays, who has turned into a stud. And, finally, there is Huascar Ynoa for the Braves, whom the Twins traded in the infamous Jaime Garcia deal. What hurts is that these are all pitchers who are either succeeding at the Big League level -- or are either at (or near) the top of the farm system for their respective teams. And this comes at a time when the Twins entire pitching staff (particularly the bullpen) is a total disaster. And do we even need to revisit the Ryan Pressly trade that Falvey and Levine consummated? As for free agents, again, I'm just not as optimistic as you are. Sure, Michael Pineda has been a fine addition. But let's not forget that he also is chiefly responsible for sabotaging the team's 2019 playoff run with his 50 game PED ban. And while it's true that Falvey and Levine had nothing whatsoever to do with that -- it IS true that the front office made one of its most egregious errors by deciding to not add a proven arm at the 2019 trade deadline. That was a mistake many of us were lamenting in real-time because it was the exact same mistake Terry Ryan always made during the Gardenhire-era. That failure to bolster the rotation at the deadline crippled the Twins when Pineda got popped with the suspension. So much so, that unproven rookie Randy Dobnak was forced to make the start in Game 2 at Yankee Stadium; something that should've been totally unthinkable for a 100+ win club. That was such an unforgivable blunder that my SF Giants buddies STILL rib me about that to this very day. JA Happ, Matt Shoemaker, and Alex Colome have quite literally been three of the worst free-agent signings in the history of the franchise -- and those were Falvey and Levine's biggest FA additions of last offseason! And again, we can attempt to let them off the hook by doing a deep dive into looking at the analytics, but if a pitching-starved team like the Angels let someone like Shoemaker walk away, there's probably a good reason for that. Ditto for the Chicago White Sox letting Alex Colome walk away. And as for Josh Donaldson -- I guess I can give them some credit for that...but again, it needs to be emphasized that Donaldson was NOT the Twins primary target. In fact, it was only because Falvey and Levine totally whiffed on signing Zack Wheeler that they ended up overpaying for Josh Donaldson (who 100% would've stayed in Atlanta had the Braves matched the Twins offer). At the end of the day, this front office will have every chance in the world to prove me wrong. Perhaps they will end up increasing their offer to Byron Buxton and succeed in signing him to an extension. But if both Berrios and Buxton are traded -- then it's undoubtedly true that the team is going into the cellar for a full rebuild. And I personally have very, very little faith that this front office has the acumen or wherewithal to turn the franchise around.