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About cjvirnig

  • Birthday 01/13/1983

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  1. It's not nihilistic, it's simply looking at the quantitative evidence and realizing that they've gotten quite a bit more wrong than they've gotten right during their tenure. 2018 was a dumpster fire. 2019 was awesome (despite their botching the trade deadline by getting an injured Sam Dyson instead of trading for a desperately needed starter), 2020 doesn't really count, and 2021 is a Chernobyl-like nuclear meltdown. If nothing else, the total lack of consistency from season to season and the violent ups and downs paints a picture of an administration that isn't in very firm control. Certainly, Falvey and Levine should not necessarily be buried for every single one of these missteps, but when it's all taken together as a whole, it's a pretty damning indictment. And if they're just going to let both Berrios and Buxton go for prospects -- good luck selling that to Twins fans.
  2. I'll admit that my take on the front office is through a pessimistic lens whereas yours if from a more optimistic lens. But I still contend that when you add everything up, they've gotten quite a bit more wrong than they've gotten right. -- and that slide is only deepening at this point. In terms of internal prospects they undervalued -- it's more than just Baddoo and Wade. In fact, the ones that REALLY hurt are the pitching prospects they let get away. According to Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic, former Twins pitching prospect Luis Gil is now the #4 prospect in the Yankees organization. There is also Nick Anderson of the Rays, who has turned into a stud. And, finally, there is Huascar Ynoa for the Braves, whom the Twins traded in the infamous Jaime Garcia deal. What hurts is that these are all pitchers who are either succeeding at the Big League level -- or are either at (or near) the top of the farm system for their respective teams. And this comes at a time when the Twins entire pitching staff (particularly the bullpen) is a total disaster. And do we even need to revisit the Ryan Pressly trade that Falvey and Levine consummated? As for free agents, again, I'm just not as optimistic as you are. Sure, Michael Pineda has been a fine addition. But let's not forget that he also is chiefly responsible for sabotaging the team's 2019 playoff run with his 50 game PED ban. And while it's true that Falvey and Levine had nothing whatsoever to do with that -- it IS true that the front office made one of its most egregious errors by deciding to not add a proven arm at the 2019 trade deadline. That was a mistake many of us were lamenting in real-time because it was the exact same mistake Terry Ryan always made during the Gardenhire-era. That failure to bolster the rotation at the deadline crippled the Twins when Pineda got popped with the suspension. So much so, that unproven rookie Randy Dobnak was forced to make the start in Game 2 at Yankee Stadium; something that should've been totally unthinkable for a 100+ win club. That was such an unforgivable blunder that my SF Giants buddies STILL rib me about that to this very day. JA Happ, Matt Shoemaker, and Alex Colome have quite literally been three of the worst free-agent signings in the history of the franchise -- and those were Falvey and Levine's biggest FA additions of last offseason! And again, we can attempt to let them off the hook by doing a deep dive into looking at the analytics, but if a pitching-starved team like the Angels let someone like Shoemaker walk away, there's probably a good reason for that. Ditto for the Chicago White Sox letting Alex Colome walk away. And as for Josh Donaldson -- I guess I can give them some credit for that...but again, it needs to be emphasized that Donaldson was NOT the Twins primary target. In fact, it was only because Falvey and Levine totally whiffed on signing Zack Wheeler that they ended up overpaying for Josh Donaldson (who 100% would've stayed in Atlanta had the Braves matched the Twins offer). At the end of the day, this front office will have every chance in the world to prove me wrong. Perhaps they will end up increasing their offer to Byron Buxton and succeed in signing him to an extension. But if both Berrios and Buxton are traded -- then it's undoubtedly true that the team is going into the cellar for a full rebuild. And I personally have very, very little faith that this front office has the acumen or wherewithal to turn the franchise around.
  3. I take no pleasure in saying this, but it's certainly beginning to feel as though Falvey and Levine are losing control of the franchise. Other than the Nelson Cruz signing, this front office has been pretty abysmal. They've made one horrendously bad free agent signing after another, routinely undervalued their own prospects only to see many of them flourish in other organizations, and are now on the verge of completely and utterly botching contract extension talks with the club's two best players: Berrios and Buxton. The ugly truth is that the one-off success of the 2019 season covered up what has been a mostly inept administration. There's no chance anyone is going to be fired or replaced -- so these guys will have the opportunity to conduct what's looking like will be a near total rebuild. But for my two cents, I can't see how a front office that has been so wrong on so many different fronts is going to successfully pull this thing off.
  4. It's logical to assume the Twins will only be able to acquire futures for the likes of Cruz, Pineda, or Happ. However, any trade package for someone like Jose Berrios needs to cross a certain bar. Namely, the Twins have every right to expect a package containing a replacement pitching prospect who is near MLB ready. If Berrios suitors fail to cross that bar, then he should absolutely not be moved.
  5. Even if the Twins are basically done adding position players, there's no reason why they couldn't (or shouldn't) use some of their excess payroll money on a couple big name relief pitchers. Also, it's been extremely disappointing to see that the Twins do not seem to have any interest in entering the JT Realmuto sweepstakes. Certainly they'd have to gauge his interest and whether he'd be willing to sign an extension, but addressing the catcher position and the bullpen are things that could be done while still engaging in a mostly "stand pat" strategy everywhere else.
  6. I agree that if the Twins are in contention, there is zero chance of them trading Dozier at the deadline. But the entire point, here, is that Falvey and Levine have made no overtures whatsoever about offering him a contract extension. If reports are true (and there's no reason why they wouldn't be), the Twins front office has yet to even reach out to Dozier's representatives AT ALL. Not even an informal "hey, howya doing" type call. My question is: why not??? Dozier is rightly miffed at what he perceives to be not only a slight, but also a clear indication that he is not in the future plans of the Twins organization. As I noted on another thread, there are 99 reasons why it makes sense for the Twins to re-sign Brian Dozier. And there is only 1 reason not to: money. But even in that scenario, the Twins are going to be flush with cash after this season, so that's not even really a huge concern.
  7. Polanco will never have the power or run producing ability of Brian Dozier. He will not come even remotely close.
  8. Again, I don't really agree with you. For one thing, Brian Dozier has not "refused" to sign an extension with the Twins. What's REALLY occurred is that the Twins have never even reached out to his representatives to even have informal discussions about a possible contract extension. Not even the customary, "hey, howya doing" type of call to gauge the player's interest in possibly opening negotiations in earnest. To me, that doesn't speak well of Falvey and Levine to treat a team leader in that manner. Your other premise of "if Gordon is a .750 OPS player with better defense..." is also a very classic "what if" type scenario. Even if Gordon ends up being a quality Big Leaguer, don't you think it might take him a couple seasons to really grow into the role (as has been the case with Buxton, Kepler, etc.)? I think it's entirely possible that Gordon could hit .230 w/ 2 HR in his rookie season. And under that scenario, I can guarantee you the Twins would desperately miss Dozier's bat and his clubhouse leadership. In my opinion, there are 99 reasons to sign Dozier to an extension and only 1 reason not to: money. And as we know, the Twins are going to be flush with cash after this season when Mauer's contract comes off the books. Do you really think they're going to parlay those savings into signing an elite free agent pitcher (something they've never done in the history of the franchise)?
  9. The reason to be talking about this right now is because Brian Dozier is miffed that the Twins haven't even bothered contacting his agent once about a possible contract extension. Moreover, Dozier has made it clear in interviews to the media that he intends to test the open market after the season regardless of whether the Twins offer him a new deal at some point this season. At this point, the chances of Dozier being in the Twins uniform in 2019 is nearly zero. That's a huge roll of the dice for the Twins...and a gamble with odds very much stacked against them.
  10. I don't really agree with what you're saying. For one thing, it doesn't matter what Jorge Polanco's ceiling ends up being. He is not (and will never be) nearly as good or as productive as Dozier. Secondly, anyone paying attention to what Dozier has been saying to the media understands that the guy is miffed. This is NOT a situation where Falvey and Levine can take their time, weigh their options, see how things play out, and then, if need be, simply sign Dozier to a contract extension. What's going to happen is that Dozier is going to decide to test the open market even if Falvey and Levine decide to offer him an extension later this season. In fact, Dozier has already made it clear that since the Twins have never called his agent even once to talk about a new contract, that he intends to become a free agent. And the implication there is that once he hits the market, he's almost certainly gone.
  11. The handling of Brian Dozier is the single most perplexing aspect thus far of the Falvey/Levine era. For whatever reason, those two seem to undervalue him. They tried like hell to trade him last winter and now they're essentially giving him the cold shoulder regarding a contract extension. Let's not forget that he's an All Star caliber player, a team leader, and a key cog of the Twins core. Remember what happened after the 2010 season when the Twins thought it was okay to let a couple core players like Michael Cuddyer walk away? Their clubhouse turned into a public library. Obviously Falvey and Levine envision Royce Lewis at short and Nick Gordon at second, but it needs to be understood that there's a lot of risk with that plan; particularly the Nick Gordon part. You don't just let a player in his prime like Brian Dozier walk away and not suffer fairly serious consequences. Moreover, I don't like the general philosophy of letting a major run producer and clubhouse leader walk away in favor of a younger, cheaper, and quite likely inferior option. Teams that don't have much interest in winning titles tend to think in those terms.
  12. Bank on Victor Martinez regressing in 2015. Last year was a career year and there's nowhere for him to go but down. In general I'm a huge seller on the Detroit Tigers.
  13. Totally agreed. Obviously there is politics involved here. Pelfrey was already plenty sore at being demoted to the bullpen last week. If the Twins had called up Trevor May, it likely would have created an issue in the clubhouse. But since Santana's suspension is unpaid, the Twins could afford to eat Pelfrey's salary and ship him out if necessary.
  14. It's extraordinarily disappointing that the Twins have opted for Mike Pelfrey over Trevor May. In general, this spring has been extremely worrisome in terms of the Twins being backed into roster decisions based on economic considerations. This is an organization that owes its fans more than that. Unless the club genuinely feels that Mike Pelfrey gives them the best chance to win (in which case I'd be worried about their sanity), I would expect them to add the best player available. Santana's suspension is a crushing blow, but it could also be a huge opportunity for a guy like Trevor May. Or even Alex Meyer.
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