Are the Twins Actually Poised to Compete in 2026? They're Closer than You Think

[Dman]

37 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

First time being a fan of a Pohlad owned team? There’s no chance the payroll flexibility gained after the sell off will be re-invested in the team. First, the FA class looks especially weak this year. Second, they’re not going to invest in any contracts beyond 2026 with the upcoming CBA negotiation. 

I expect more of the same. 1 year cheap as you can get contracts. Trading away more players and end up with 90+ losses again. 

Yeah I think they don't want to be caught holding onto players not knowing what the lockout might look like.  I think they are going to trade those assets and essentially start over with the new CBA.  

Also with the hitting so bad on this team there isn't much to build around unless the young bats coming up can be difference makers.  They broke the pen.  It's hard to see a path forward that makes this team better in 2026 especially if the plan is to keep payroll reduced.

[Parfigliano]

9 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Let's say they are both moved. I don't see that happening, but let's play it out. Both are traded.

 

What are the returns? Do you think they are trading both for players that could be up in 2028? Or do you think they are getting guys for 2026?

I think they get guys that are playing in Japan by 2029.

[USAFChief]

They'd almost have to closer than I think but that still puts them miles from contention. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

18 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

I think they get guys that are playing in Japan by 2029.

Good talk

[cjvirnig]

If (and it's an enormous IF at this point) the Pohlads allow Derek to make the call on baseball decisions this winter, it really comes down to whether he believes guys like Lewis, Lee, and Wallner are good enough to invest in. If the answer is yes, then not only should there be no selloff of starting pitching, but Joe Ryan should be extended. If the answer is no, then it would make sense to trade Ryan & Lopez and re-orient their contention window for guys like Keaschall, Jenkins, Culpepper, Abel, etc. 

[jmlease1]

1 minute ago, cjvirnig said:

If (and it's an enormous IF at this point) the Pohlads allow Derek to make the call on baseball decisions this winter, it really comes down to whether he believes guys like Lewis, Lee, and Wallner are good enough to invest in. If the answer is yes, then not only should there be no selloff of starting pitching, but Joe Ryan should be extended. If the answer is no, then it would make sense to trade Ryan & Lopez and re-orient their contention window for guys like Keaschall, Jenkins, Culpepper, Abel, etc. 

That presumes the Twins are allowed to have a payroll over $95M by ownership. If they are, then yes, they should be keeping the starting pitching and trying to extend Ryan, even if it only gets them 1 year of his FA. But if they were claiming to be losing $40M with a payroll of $135M, Correa's dead money on payroll for 2026, and attendance guaranteed to be down next season (the only way they crack 1.5M next season is for them to discount tickets and have fan invasions from MKE, TOR, KC, CWS, etc) why should anyone believe they'll authorize a payroll north of $100M?

Never believe anything the Pohlads say. They suckered us once this decade by investing in the team, then pulled the rug out, at least in part because they are utter bunglers when it comes to their media rights and growing fan support.

[Danchat]

3 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Lopez and Ryan will be moved in the offseason, that is as close to 100% as you can get right now.

"If" all 20 of the Twins prospects, 1st, and 2nd year players excel, then the Twins will be poised for success in 2026.

I'd earmark it at 95% chance one of them is traded and somewhere around 50-60% that both go. My guess is Lopez is the first domino to fall.

[weitz41]

I like your optimism...But...I don't think the goal is to compete in 2026. 2027 ok I'm onboard with that. BUT again...Will there be a lock out? Will the Pohlad actually reinvest in the payroll?

I expect at least one of Lopez/Ryan to be traded along with 1 or both of Wallner/Larnach. By the end of 2027 most of them will be free agents.

[DJL44]

13 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

the only way they crack 1.5M next season is for them to discount tickets and have fan invasions from MKE, TOR, KC, CWS, etc) why should anyone believe they'll authorize a payroll north of $100M?

Never believe anything the Pohlads say. They suckered us once this decade by investing in the team, then pulled the rug out, at least in part because they are utter bunglers when it comes to their media rights and growing fan support.

I can't believe they think doubling the price for streaming is a good idea.

Quote

ESPN's direct-to-consumer service features an unlimited plan for $29.99 per month or $299 per year, or a select plan for $11.99 per month or $119.99 per year. Twins fans would then need an MLB.TV subscription that could have a similar price in the region of $29.99 a month, which could put the monthly bill around $40-$60 per month for Minnesota fans.

Report: ESPN closes in on Twins TV rights with deal that could raise prices

[Jasper]

If the twins are to compete next year they need  to give AAA guys some at bats now. Otherwise we have the same low hit low field team as the last few years. See what you got this season is toast.

[bunsen82]

Lot of pessimistic views.  

Lets 1st discuss Ryan and Lopez.  I would say its close to a non zero chance the Twins trade both.  You need at least 1 veteran in your starter position to lead the pitching staff.  Due to Ober having struggling stuff and health I think he is not considered for the role.  Of the 2 players I think the most likely player kept is Lopez.  Yes his salary is high,  but we have shed so much salary its not a big deal.  His value is the lowest.  Meaning he will bring back the least amount.  2. Is he is an extremely professional individual.  He has been a tough situation like this with the Marlins.  

I think the odds are increasing they trade neither.   Say what you will I think the Twins wanted to tank for the fall,  and the decisions on players that they have played continues to reaffirm this opinion.   Unless they get a massive offer for Ryan - which with 2027 and possible work stoppage I don't think they just trade and give him away.  Ryan's value is likely going to be 2 1/2 times what Duran was.  The sheer amount of value will be difficult to equal out, without a massive amount of prospects.  I just don't think we will be able to match up with what Falvey wants.   Also a surprise,  I think Falvey thinks he can put a competitive team on the field for next year.  

So claim number 1 touted so far is this team can't hit.  I would argue this team as currently constructed can't hit consistently and we don't play small ball well enough.  We still seem to be in the bombas mentality although that is beginning to change.   Keashall and an improving Lee are 2 young players to build around.  You add in Buxton and Jeffers and that is a decent core to build around.  I think a lot will depend on the Twins plans for Culpepper.  If they do plan to have Culpepper move up soon Lee either becomes the utility infielder,  or you trade Lewis.  Lewis is such an enigma.  I have no idea what you could get for him.  If you did trade him you slide Lee to 3rd and suddenly you have 5 quality hitters.  At this point I think Larnach gets traded and Wallner stays.  Does a Gonzalez/Rodriguez/Fedko/Roden Take 1 or 2 spots.  I would venture even with the lack of time,  Rodriguez and Roden get the first nods.  Fedko assuming he is still well is the immediate back up and then you continue to season Gonzalez and monitor Jenkins progress.   That leave 1st base and DH and the bench.  We seem to have ample bench players.  I wouldn't be surprised if we spend 2-5 million on another 1st base project.   If Culpepper is legit, Keaschall continues to hit and Lee continues to improve - or you have 3 solid you hitters to build around Jeffers and Buxton - You can have a solid lineup.  You find 5 young hitters and we are talking.   At that point we are no longer talking about the Twins not developing hitters.  

As to the bullpen.  I think most here will say Sands and Topa can fill the 4 and 5 spots in the bullpen.  Hatch, Cabrera and Funderburk can fill the back end.  1 of those players won't be in the Twins plans and then you can fill it with 1 of the Twins failed starters.  My #1 option assuming health is Canterino.  After that you have Raya, Morris, Adams, Ohl.  I think the Twins trade for 1 reliever,  and then they sign 2 other relievers.  1 higher end reliever they intend to keep for the year or flip for prospects, and another reliever they think they can get elevated performance out of.  So if we trade for 1 good to great reliever,  spend $15 million or slightly more on relievers (which is less than we were going to spend  this year) and supplement with the rest of the players that is a really solid start.  If things come together you have the ability to trade at the dealine for another reliever.   So this is how you could rebuild the Twins bullpen in 1 year.  It will be lots of moving parts for a year or two but then gradually we will find a couple really solid bullpen arms that we have developed.   

[Fire Dan Gladden]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Let's say they are both moved. I don't see that happening, but let's play it out. Both are traded.

 

What are the returns? Do you think they are trading both for players that could be up in 2028? Or do you think they are getting guys for 2026?

They are being traded for salary reasons, so expect prospects. How close they are depends on the trade partner.

[Sjoski]

Did you mean poised for 2036… not 2026? Must’ve been a typo.

Been following this team for 50+ years, and I’ve never been so emotionally detached. 

 I’m not even sure who’s more pathetic—ownership, front office, manager, or players. 

If you thought 2024-2025 was a nightmare...2026 is going to be a horror show on steroids. 

 

 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

8 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Lot of pessimistic views.  

Lets 1st discuss Ryan and Lopez.  I would say its close to a non zero chance the Twins trade both.  You need at least 1 veteran in your starter position to lead the pitching staff.  Due to Ober having struggling stuff and health I think he is not considered for the role.  Of the 2 players I think the most likely player kept is Lopez.  Yes his salary is high,  but we have shed so much salary its not a big deal.  His value is the lowest.  Meaning he will bring back the least amount.  2. Is he is an extremely professional individual.  He has been a tough situation like this with the Marlins.  

I think the odds are increasing they trade neither.   Say what you will I think the Twins wanted to tank for the fall,  and the decisions on players that they have played continues to reaffirm this opinion.   Unless they get a massive offer for Ryan - which with 2027 and possible work stoppage I don't think they just trade and give him away.  Ryan's value is likely going to be 2 1/2 times what Duran was.  The sheer amount of value will be difficult to equal out, without a massive amount of prospects.  I just don't think we will be able to match up with what Falvey wants.   Also a surprise,  I think Falvey thinks he can put a competitive team on the field for next year.  

So claim number 1 touted so far is this team can't hit.  I would argue this team as currently constructed can't hit consistently and we don't play small ball well enough.  We still seem to be in the bombas mentality although that is beginning to change.   Keashall and an improving Lee are 2 young players to build around.  You add in Buxton and Jeffers and that is a decent core to build around.  I think a lot will depend on the Twins plans for Culpepper.  If they do plan to have Culpepper move up soon Lee either becomes the utility infielder,  or you trade Lewis.  Lewis is such an enigma.  I have no idea what you could get for him.  If you did trade him you slide Lee to 3rd and suddenly you have 5 quality hitters.  At this point I think Larnach gets traded and Wallner stays.  Does a Gonzalez/Rodriguez/Fedko/Roden Take 1 or 2 spots.  I would venture even with the lack of time,  Rodriguez and Roden get the first nods.  Fedko assuming he is still well is the immediate back up and then you continue to season Gonzalez and monitor Jenkins progress.   That leave 1st base and DH and the bench.  We seem to have ample bench players.  I wouldn't be surprised if we spend 2-5 million on another 1st base project.   If Culpepper is legit, Keaschall continues to hit and Lee continues to improve - or you have 3 solid you hitters to build around Jeffers and Buxton - You can have a solid lineup.  You find 5 young hitters and we are talking.   At that point we are no longer talking about the Twins not developing hitters.  

As to the bullpen.  I think most here will say Sands and Topa can fill the 4 and 5 spots in the bullpen.  Hatch, Cabrera and Funderburk can fill the back end.  1 of those players won't be in the Twins plans and then you can fill it with 1 of the Twins failed starters.  My #1 option assuming health is Canterino.  After that you have Raya, Morris, Adams, Ohl.  I think the Twins trade for 1 reliever,  and then they sign 2 other relievers.  1 higher end reliever they intend to keep for the year or flip for prospects, and another reliever they think they can get elevated performance out of.  So if we trade for 1 good to great reliever,  spend $15 million or slightly more on relievers (which is less than we were going to spend  this year) and supplement with the rest of the players that is a really solid start.  If things come together you have the ability to trade at the dealine for another reliever.   So this is how you could rebuild the Twins bullpen in 1 year.  It will be lots of moving parts for a year or two but then gradually we will find a couple really solid bullpen arms that we have developed.   

Your entire premise is based on the idea that ownership is more concerned about winning than finances. Please name one thing that has happened in the last 18-24 months that supports this. 

Lopez is 100% gone either this offseason or early next season, depending on when he shows he is healthy. Ryan is 98% gone because he is a relatively inexpensive SP1 on a 70-win team that is not actively trying to compete. He will be moved for prospects with an eye towards the future.

The only reason the 2026 payroll will be over $100m next year is if they count Correa's dead money. Spending on relievers, spending on 1B... Does anyone think they will spend on anything this offseason?

[LastOnePicked]

They are pretty close, actually, They just need a few new additions: a new FO, a new manager and a new roster. Oh, and a new owner.

Watch this team. I mean, actually watch this team. Not the farm system box scores. Not the best-case mental scenario of the guys who are left. Watch this actual team. They can't hit, they can't field and their pitching is spotty on even the best days,

They are years from being competitive. Half a decade, at least.

[LeatherAntenna]

2 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

First time being a fan of a Pohlad owned team? There’s no chance the payroll flexibility gained after the sell off will be re-invested in the team. First, the FA class looks especially weak this year. Second, they’re not going to invest in any contracts beyond 2026 with the upcoming CBA negotiation. 

I expect more of the same. 1 year cheap as you can get contracts. Trading away more players and end up with 90+ losses again. 

Hey, we are only on pace to lose 88 this year , don’t short change this highly uncompetitive team.

 

[GNess]

"Remember Red, hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things..." 

So there is that; the Twins and their fans can hope for many, many pieces to fall into place and they become a contending team in 2026.

[bunsen82]

34 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Your entire premise is based on the idea that ownership is more concerned about winning than finances. Please name one thing that has happened in the last 18-24 months that supports this. 

Lopez is 100% gone either this offseason or early next season, depending on when he shows he is healthy. Ryan is 98% gone because he is a relatively inexpensive SP1 on a 70-win team that is not actively trying to compete. He will be moved for prospects with an eye towards the future.

The only reason the 2026 payroll will be over $100m next year is if they count Correa's dead money. Spending on relievers, spending on 1B... Does anyone think they will spend on anything this offseason?

They are resetting the salary ceiling by trading Correa. They traded the bullpen to add significant value to the system and tank and improve our draft slot. After that they rebuild the roster to give the fans something to cheer for. I expect some salary to be respect. I don’t see us having a bottom 4 or 5 payroll. 

[The Great Hambino]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

I can't believe they think doubling the price for streaming is a good idea.

Report: ESPN closes in on Twins TV rights with deal that could raise prices

A lot more info has to come out about this (obviously), but you can get access to ESPN’s DTC platform and all of their offerings by authenticating through your TV provider at no extra charge … if your provider has struck a deal with ESPN. (There’s a list somewhere of participating providers - YouTube tv is not currently one).  There’s a possibility they also charge extra for MLB tv the way apple does for MLS, but they’ve confirmed that there won’t be an extra charge for big WWE shows on their service, so who knows?

In other words, it might cost more or less or the same amount you currently pay.  Clear as crystal

[DJL44]

26 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

A lot more info has to come out about this (obviously), but you can get access to ESPN’s DTC platform and all of their offerings by authenticating through your TV provider at no extra charge … if your provider has struck a deal with ESPN. (There’s a list somewhere of participating providers - YouTube tv is not currently one).  There’s a possibility they also charge extra for MLB tv the way apple does for MLS, but they’ve confirmed that there won’t be an extra charge for big WWE shows on their service, so who knows?

In other words, it might cost more or less or the same amount you currently pay.  Clear as crystal

I cut the cord. My TV provider is an antenna. Maybe they will have a bundle with Disney+.

[USAFChief]

29 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

A lot more info has to come out about this (obviously), but you can get access to ESPN’s DTC platform and all of their offerings by authenticating through your TV provider at no extra charge … if your provider has struck a deal with ESPN. (There’s a list somewhere of participating providers - YouTube tv is not currently one).  There’s a possibility they also charge extra for MLB tv the way apple does for MLS, but they’ve confirmed that there won’t be an extra charge for big WWE shows on their service, so who knows?

In other words, it might cost more or less or the same amount you currently pay.  Clear as crystal

Great. Just fan*******tastic.

I'm among the last dinosaurs on earth to finally make the switch to streaming, I chose YoutubeTV, and now you're telling me whatever this ESPN thing is, it isnt on YoutubeTV.

****. *** **** it. ***********s. **** em.

[DocBauer]

That's what you have? I'm sorry, but what are you looking at?

[Maybe I need to create a daily Blog or fill out an application)

The Twins are between $90-95M right now with arbitration figured in.

.A move of Larnach, which I expect to happen, trade possible, puts the Twins around $90M.

And all you have is the Twins might be good and close to competing if they keep their rotation in check and rebuild their bullpen?

Will wonders never cease?

HOW do they do that?

What about the rest of the roster and how to build a lineup? 

Oh, that's not part of the OP?

I'm really sorry. I'm about the nicest person you would ever meet. And I bite my to tongue daily here on TD with some comments I see.

But I'm about to draw a line on the product/society that we have where a PAID OP can simply say: "the Twins are closer than you think if they just don't trade away their best pitchers".

I mean...I'm trying so hard to not be mean. That's not me or my style. But come on!

 

[P Meyer]

2 hours ago, Danchat said:

I'd earmark it at 95% chance one of them is traded and somewhere around 50-60% that both go. My guess is Lopez is the first domino to fall.

Lopez and Ober is my guess.

[Vanimal46]

7 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Great. Just fan*******tastic.

I'm among the last dinosaurs on earth to finally make the switch to streaming, I chose YoutubeTV, and now you're telling me whatever this ESPN thing is, it isnt on YoutubeTV.

****. *** **** it. ***********s. **** em.

When Manfred gets his way, it’ll be the same fragmented mess like the NFL. Games on this ESPN thing, Netflix, Amazon Prime, etc. 

Apple TV+ is out after this year I think? They have by far the best quality stream in 4K with horrendous commentary. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

They are being traded for salary reasons, so expect prospects. How close they are depends on the trade partner.

Either of them still bring back a LOT more than anyone traded at this last deadline. I know we are all down on them at the moment, but just wiping it away saying you are certain both are traded without accounting for what comes back feels off to me. Or do you really think other teams view Ryan or Lopez as valuable as the cardboard cutouts that were in seats in the 2020 season?

[Fire Dan Gladden]

1 minute ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Either of them still bring back a LOT more than anyone traded at this last deadline. I know we are all down on them at the moment, but just wiping it away saying you are certain both are traded without accounting for what comes back feels off to me. Or do you really think other teams view Ryan or Lopez as valuable as the cardboard cutouts that were in seats in the 2020 season?

You need to look at the context of the discussion. The question was whether the return was aimed at 2026 or 2028. My response was that it was dependent on the trading partner. It had nothing to do with what was coming back in return.

[Glorybound]

The current team can’t hit and has below avg. fielding with no bullpen. Going to be awhile before the Twins challenge anybody but for the basement of the division.

[Cory Engelhardt]

4 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

You need to look at the context of the discussion. The question was whether the return was aimed at 2026 or 2028. My response was that it was dependent on the trading partner. It had nothing to do with what was coming back in return.

I get that. I more just meant I have a hard time seeing them trading either Ryan or Lopez and NOT getting back help that will be here for 2026.

Doesnt mean I think they will compete for a World Series next year. And who knows what 2027 looks like with a potential/probable stoppage. But let’s say they trade one of them for a middle of the order type bat plus. That would certainly make 2026 more interesting in my opinion

[USAFChief]

11 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I get that. I more just meant I have a hard time seeing them trading either Ryan or Lopez and NOT getting back help that will be here for 2026.

Doesnt mean I think they will compete for a World Series next year. And who knows what 2027 looks like with a potential/probable stoppage. But let’s say they trade one of them for a middle of the order type bat plus. That would certainly make 2026 more interesting in my opinion

Who is trading a legit MLB middle of the order bat for either one?

A team trading for Ryan or Lopez expects to contend in 2026, and they're not removing a key piece of their offense. 

And that ignores the very real question of Lopez,'s worth in a trade. IF he comes back and gets 4-5 starts, proves himself healthy and really good, then yeah. He'd be a valuable trade piece.  Short of all three of those things, his value starts dropping off pretty quick.

In any case, the return would be prospects. How close to the big leagues is certainly debatable. But they won't be traded for established big leaguers. And absolutely not a "middle of the order bat."

Trading one or both of Lopez/Ryan pushes back any chance of contending, rather than speeds it up.

[glunn]

5 hours ago, The Great Hambino said:

I do not understand this idea that the bullpen will be fine next year just because pieces can be found cheaply.  You can round out a pen with those types of acquisitions, but you can't build an entire one - including an entire back end of one - from scratch, which is what they are doing. 

Who is going straight from failed starting prospect or scrap-heap free agent and immediately and reliably filling the role of closer, or even primary setup man?  That's what you're counting on happening if you think the Twins can be competitive next year.

For those that keep on saying that bullpens can easily be rebuilt on the fly, please provide an example of someone restocking an entire bullpen this way in a year.  And no, the bullpen that got traded away at the deadline is not an example of this as it was developed over the course of multiple seasons.  And it really didn't turn out to be that good anyway, which is part of the reason why the fire sale took place

At the very least they should have kept Varland.