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Posted
Image courtesy of © Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

I know, I know. This is months too early. There are still nearly 50 games left in the 2025 season. Free agents will be signed (probably). Trades will happen (almost certainly). Injuries will happen; it’s the Twins, after all. Prospects will emerge between now and then. There will be non-roster invitees who could make the club.

And yet, after the front office sold nearly 40% of the 26-man roster at the deadline, it’s time to dream on next season. Is this desperation? A fool’s errand, even? Yeah, maybe. But you know what? I’m not ready to stop caring about baseball for the year. Spring training is a long way off. Really, it’s just time to shift our focus to the future, when once again, anything is possible. This should, at least, be a helpful thought exercise to order our thoughts about the Twins and the changes to come.

Anyway, if the season began today, here’s what the roster could look like.

Starting Pitching

Bullpen

This group has some real upside. I’m guessing at which starters would actually be starters, and which would be in the bullpen. That’s part of the fun here, after the Twins traded for two more starters at the deadline despite being relatively flush already. This roster features 10 pitchers who are currently starters. Realistically, some of them would remain starters at Triple-A St. Paul.

But, it’s fair to wonder if some of them would be better suited to relief. Some (Zebby Matthews, David Festa, Simeon Woods Richardson, Taj Bradley) haven’t demonstrated the consistency or the performance to justify remaining starters. Others have workload or injury concerns (Raya and Prielipp). Certainly, at least a few of them will be converted. Still others (Bailey Ober, looking at you here) may be diminished to the point where relief is the only option to get serviceable results.

Lineup

Now, this is an exciting group of hitters, especially once Walker Jenkins is ready. He would slot into left field, taking over for Trevor Larnach, who has built a career out of being average. The biggest problem with the current core is that so few of the hitters, you know, hit. This group, though? I’m pretty confident that they could do some damage. They offer an intriguing blend of speed, power, athleticism, and versatility. Will they be stars immediately? Almost certainly not. But the talent and upside are there.

Bench

This is an exciting group, too. Roden hasn't put it all together yet, but he was considered a solid prospect with the Jays. Lee looks more like a utility player than a starter at this point in his career. Outman is a legitimate center fielder, and an upgrade from DaShawn Keirsey Jr. Winkel can hit a bit, and despite not being a great catcher, he could make some sense as he hits lefty and would complement Jeffers.

Next men up:

There's a mix of high-upside and high-floor guys on that list. Gonzalez isn’t an amazing defender, but he has pop and hits for average. He can play all three outfield positions and would be a natural platoon mate for Larnach. Jenkins, if he can stay healthy, should be ready by mid-season at the latest. As top talent reaches the upper minors, it's a bit of a luxury to have this many more guys who have a chance to be MLB regulars.

As a 26-man roster, there are a few things to note.

First, that’s a lot of rookies—seven to start the season, with Rojas, Gonzalez, Jenkins, and a pitcher or three likely joining at some point. Any time that happens, there’s going to be a lot of variability. This team probably would be lucky to play .500 ball, and would probably be worse than that, but it would give guys some experience that would set them up for the future. Additionally, several of these guys probably aren’t ready to be handed full-time jobs. But, for this exercise, it is what it is.

Second, this roster could invite some interesting piggybacking situations, should the Twins choose to employ that sort of strategy. With so many starters, it’s fair to wonder what they could accomplish if they were going, say, once or even twice through the order. This season, Travis Adams was used in this manner quite frequently with St. Paul. Could the Twins expand that? If nothing else, it would be interesting.

Third, you will notice a handful of players left off this roster. I assume that if the Twins are playing for the future, they won’t benefit from seeing more of Edouard Julien, Jose Miranda, Mickey Gasper, and the sort of Quad-A players who have made up the back of the roster over the past couple of seasons. 

Fourth, I just want to reiterate: the Twins will certainly make some moves in the offseason. I wouldn’t be shocked to see them trade López or Ryan, and with 10 starters, they may actually be able to absorb the loss without a huge drop-off in results. On the hitting side, Larnach or Wallner could be moved, as well. Also, um, the Twins will need to spend some real money on free agents or trading for guys with significant salaries, or they would likely face a grievance from the MLBPA.

All that said, I would be kind of excited to see this team play. There’s a ton of talent in the upper minors, and many of them are at least close to being ready. Hopefully, the next core won’t be as much of a letdown as the current one has been.


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Posted

The A’s had to get their payroll above $105 mil last year in order to keep their revenue sharing. The CBA requires revenue sharing recipients to spend more than 150% of their revenue sharing money on MLB payroll. Twins number may be a little different but even the Pohlads can only lower payroll to a certain point. 

Posted
1 minute ago, SF Twins Fan said:

Bradley or Able are much more likely to shift to the bullpen than Ober.

Or even SWR. Agreed.

Also, Outman is not an upgrade over anyone. He hasn't hit in two years. He should be DFA at this point. 

I see no world where Preilipp is a RP to start next year. 

ERod? He hasn't hit in a month ...... they'll hold him back for a month or so to see if he's healthy, IMO.

I'll be shocked if Larnach isn't part of a trade in the off season.

Posted
20 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

The A’s had to get their payroll above $105 mil last year in order to keep their revenue sharing. The CBA requires revenue sharing recipients to spend more than 150% of their revenue sharing money on MLB payroll. Twins number may be a little different but even the Pohlads can only lower payroll to a certain point. 

MLB let the A's wallow in poverty for two decades before they forced them to bump up their payroll, and it was all a ploy to get what the A's and MLB wanted; a move out of Oakland.

If the Pohlad's still aren't able to sell, keeping payroll low will appeal to new owners, and that's what the Pohlad's and MLB wants; therefore MLB will also let the Twins wallow in poverty simply to achieve what they want.

Posted

An interesting look, to be sure.  On the pitching side, I would actually plan on trading Joe Ryan--I'm down on the Twins chances to realistically compete for a WS in 2026 or 2027, so I think now is the time to maximize the value for Ryan.  Specifically, I would target Boston (who we know wants him), and try to get Arias, Tolle, and Early as the return; Arias is a bit away, but is holding his own at 19 in A+, and from all reports will be a good defender at short.  Tolle and Early have great strikeout numbers at AAA and are 22 and 23 respectively.  You'd still be able to go Lopez, Ober, Matthews, SWR, Bradley to open the season, and have Festa, Abel, Tolle, and Early as options at AAA (or you can convert a couple to reliever, and let Morris/Lewis/Rojas be additional depth options).  I would also move Raya and Prielipp to the pen, rather than continuing to tinker with them as starters.

Alternatively, you could also try to swing a deal with Atlanta for Baldwin, Ritchie, and Fuentes (maybe even more).  Baldwin can be your catcher for the next 5 years before hitting FA, and he's currently 10th in WAR (but 4th in wRC) for catchers at only 24 years old.  Both Ritchie and Fuentes are already at AAA, and are only 22 and 20, which would give the Twins a lot of nice options to start close to the majors.

Posted
3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Or even SWR. Agreed.

Also, Outman is not an upgrade over anyone. He hasn't hit in two years. He should be DFA at this point. 

I see no world where Preilipp is a RP to start next year. 

ERod? He hasn't hit in a month ...... they'll hold him back for a month or so to see if he's healthy, IMO.

I'll be shocked if Larnach isn't part of a trade in the off season.

Yea, SWR is definitely a bullpen candidate since he doesn't have great strikeout numbers.  

I can see Preilipp moving the to bullpen next season but only in the second half and only if the Twins are in playoff contention (HaHa).  Otherwise there is no reason to move him to the bullpen as he's performing well overall in his first full season.

I don't know that ERod has much more to prove in AAA other than staying healthy.  If he comes back this season, I'd love for him to get a few games with the Twins just to get the experience.

I don't see any reason to bring Larnach back next season either, especially after trading for Roden.

Posted
Just now, nicksaviking said:

Yeah, it's going to take more than a season where Ober pitched injured to wipe out 2.5 years of very good pitching. Barring injury or trade he's a lock for the rotation.

100%. His poor showing this season is 100% driven by his injury and it doesn't make any sense to trade him this offseason because of it.  And if the Twins do end up trading Joe Ryan or Pablo Lopez this offseason, it would be even more likely Ober stays in the rotation.

Posted
16 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

The A’s had to get their payroll above $105 mil last year in order to keep their revenue sharing. The CBA requires revenue sharing recipients to spend more than 150% of their revenue sharing money on MLB payroll. Twins number may be a little different but even the Pohlads can only lower payroll to a certain point. 

I think this is important to note, because without it IF they still own the team, I expect they'd try to get a payroll as close to zero as possible.  Thanks for the reminder about this requirement.

Posted

This is an interesting exercise. I'd started on a similar one. 

To add a level of exercise, when I made some guesses at arbitration figures, I came up with something in the neighborhood of $88-$90 million, plus the $10M for Correa.

If a new owner were to come on board and make even a $130-$140M budget reasonable, it would be interesting to imagine what could happen. They've not spent much on relievers, so say judicious spending that totals $10M. They've signed Castro and then Vazquez, so say another $10M on a veteran catcher. Then another $20-$25M on a veteran hitter or three and I'm willing to roll the dice. 

Posted
1 minute ago, LeatherAntenna said:

I read this story and comments fast, but did I miss something or was Royce Lewis never mentioned?

Stand corrected, I see he is still slotted at third…

Posted
1 minute ago, LeatherAntenna said:

I read this story and comments fast, but did I miss something or was Royce Lewis never mentioned?

Third base in the list. 

Posted

There are too many shifting pieces to make a guess at the Opening Day 2026 roster. The first variable would need to be ownership. The author stated that he was going with the Pohlad family still owning the team. In that event, one could reasonably expect that 2 of Lopez, Ryan, and Ober are traded. Additionally, it is quite feasible, if not expected, that Jeffers and Lewis are moved as well. Topa and Larnach would either be traded or not offered contracts. 

Really, it is way too early to guess at a 2026 roster due to ownership and injury situations. A $75M roster payroll is not just possible but a consideration. When one gets into future speculations this early many outcomes can be expected. We can also even expect a better team at half the payroll. I think I will wait until November before beginning thoughts on next year.

Posted

I don't want this to come across as a criticism of the article, because I think it's very helpful to see the status quo heading into next year.  But while this is a very interesting starting point, there's basically zero chance that this is the 2026 opening day roster. 

If the vet starters are retained, then they should be making some real investments in the roster to capitalize on the remaining Ryan/Lopez years.

If they are traded away (IMO the likelier scenario), then they're embracing a full-on rebuild and any roster investment will be used to fill what they currently can't - backup CF (Outman ain't it), catching depth, live bodies for the bullpen option/DFA train (while some of the starting prospects will move to the bullpen eventually, they will need placeholders while they get their chance to audition for the rotation).

I see two distinct ways they can pivot, likely dependent on the ownership situation.  But continuing to straddle that line into next year I think would be the worst of both worlds.   It is going to take time to sort our the rotation and bullpen pieces, and banking on several position player prospects hitting their 2026 ceilings (which is what would have to happen for this to be a competitive lineup without some real additions) doesn't seem like a super viable plan.

Posted

There are a lot of talented arms. I don’t think I would hold back one of the starters in AAA for depth. Take the best 13 arms. If a pitcher gets injured build up an arm through a few bullpen games.

I do think Prielipp has a chance to win a spot. More likely give him the routine of a starter in AAA to begin next year. That is what the Rangers did with Ragans following his second TJ and very few innings in his previous four. He built up a year and a half before they brought him to the majors. It may be in the bullpen when Prielipp gets to the majors. The routine of a starter role in the minors is so much more conducive to development.

Larnach is going to have to put up an OPS over 800 these last two months in order to be tendered. That might make it his best two month stretch of his career. Even if he is tendered the Twins may trade him for a return similar to what they received for Urshela. The Twins tendered Farmer after 2023 and weren’t able to move him. Tendering Larnach may be more risk than they are willing to take given the minimal return. 

Outman has crushed the ball in AAA for three years. Roden has a good track record in the minors Gasper does too. Outman’s last two poor seasons as well as the poor seasons of Gasper and Roden thus far this year are very small samples. I don’t think you can look at their 44, 61 or 31 PAs this year and be definitive that they will not hit in the future. I would bring all three to spring training.

If they have new owners who are willing to add to the budget I hope they spend it on one bat and then one arm rather than spread it over several team friendly one year deals. Get the best player or two they can afford and then look for minor league free agents  like Brock Stewart and Willi Castro. Maybe someone like Luis Campusano. What will it take to buy low on Campusano from the Padres? Has he fallen out of favor there? He will be out of options.

Posted
5 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

There are a lot of talented arms. I don’t think I would hold back one of the starters in AAA for depth. Take the best 13 arms. If a pitcher gets injured build up an arm through a few bullpen games.

I do think Prielipp has a chance to win a spot. More likely give him the routine of a starter in AAA to begin next year. That is what the Rangers did with Ragans following his second TJ and very few innings in his previous four. He built up a year and a half before they brought him to the majors. It may be in the bullpen when Prielipp gets to the majors. The routine of a starter role in the minors is so much more conducive to development.

Larnach is going to have to put up an OPS over 800 these last two months in order to be tendered. That might make it his best two month stretch of his career. Even if he is tendered the Twins may trade him for a return similar to what they received for Urshela. The Twins tendered Farmer after 2023 and weren’t able to move him. Tendering Larnach may be more risk than they are willing to take given the minimal return. 

Outman has crushed the ball in AAA for three years. Roden has a good track record in the minors Gasper does too. Outman’s last two poor seasons as well as the poor seasons of Gasper and Roden thus far this year are very small samples. I don’t think you can look at their 44, 61 or 31 PAs this year and be definitive that they will not hit in the future. I would bring all three to spring training.

If they have new owners who are willing to add to the budget I hope they spend it on one bat and then one arm rather than spread it over several team friendly one year deals. Get the best player or two they can afford and then look for minor league free agents  like Brock Stewart and Willi Castro. Maybe someone like Luis Campusano. What will it take to buy low on Campusano from the Padres? Has he fallen out of favor there? He will be out of options.

Two years is a small sample for outman? No. Gasper is how old, and you think this is small samples?

Teams don't convert their sixth and seventh and eighth best starter to RP. They keep them in the minors. 

Posted
1 hour ago, SF Twins Fan said:

100%. His poor showing this season is 100% driven by his injury and it doesn't make any sense to trade him this offseason because of it.  And if the Twins do end up trading Joe Ryan or Pablo Lopez this offseason, it would be even more likely Ober stays in the rotation.

This. The bullpen demolition can be somewhat mitigated. If you trade Ryan you darn well better keep everyone else. If you trade Pablo, same. If you trade both.. let's not go there. A great chance to win forty percent of the time... That's something worth preserving.

Posted
30 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

There are a lot of talented arms. I don’t think I would hold back one of the starters in AAA for depth. Take the best 13 arms. If a pitcher gets injured build up an arm through a few bullpen games.

I do think Prielipp has a chance to win a spot. More likely give him the routine of a starter in AAA to begin next year. That is what the Rangers did with Ragans following his second TJ and very few innings in his previous four. He built up a year and a half before they brought him to the majors. It may be in the bullpen when Prielipp gets to the majors. The routine of a starter role in the minors is so much more conducive to development.

Larnach is going to have to put up an OPS over 800 these last two months in order to be tendered. That might make it his best two month stretch of his career. Even if he is tendered the Twins may trade him for a return similar to what they received for Urshela. The Twins tendered Farmer after 2023 and weren’t able to move him. Tendering Larnach may be more risk than they are willing to take given the minimal return. 

Outman has crushed the ball in AAA for three years. Roden has a good track record in the minors Gasper does too. Outman’s last two poor seasons as well as the poor seasons of Gasper and Roden thus far this year are very small samples. I don’t think you can look at their 44, 61 or 31 PAs this year and be definitive that they will not hit in the future. I would bring all three to spring training.

If they have new owners who are willing to add to the budget I hope they spend it on one bat and then one arm rather than spread it over several team friendly one year deals. Get the best player or two they can afford and then look for minor league free agents  like Brock Stewart and Willi Castro. Maybe someone like Luis Campusano. What will it take to buy low on Campusano from the Padres? Has he fallen out of favor there? He will be out of options.

Kwan would be an awesome pry. For so many reasons.

Posted

I think there's some real possibilities here with the lineup, but let's not have blinders on to the risks of making Culpepper the starting SS out the gate, etc. Maybe he's ready to hit in MLB in 2026, maybe not but it's a real risk to go that direction. Clemens is ok as a transition 1B; he's been doing well this season, and you have to like his gamer attitude along with the increased power production, but I'd be concerned that teams are going to be able to put a book on him together after seeing 400 ABs of him swinging out of his shoes to hit homers this year and m=reduce his effectiveness significantly. I'm already kind of Out on Outman, and while Roden might be an acceptable 4th OF if he shows he can handle CF well down the stretch and actually hit like a MLB player...he's not there yet. Basically this bench looks terrible outside of Brooks Lee (who adds much more defensively than offensively at this point, though I still have hope for his bat and his floor is reasonable), which is pretty risky when relying on a lot of rookies + Keaschall and a return to form from Lewis to carry the load. The upside is there, but the risk is high.

The pitching staff is where I really disagree. I don't think Matthews, Festa, SWR, and Ober are all getting moved into the bullpen for 2026, nor does it make all that much sense to do so just to slot in Bradley & Abel. (It's also notable this piece has the Twins carrying 14 pitchers, which they aren't allowed to do...) Total agree with above that no team is going to take their 6th-9th starters and slot them all into the bullpen, either. Ober is almost certainly in the rotation next season. The bullpen needs work and reinforcements from beyond just the organization. While Raya might be an option to transition, it's not like he's had a good season in limited innings. Adams is showing enough to suggest that he could be a middle relief type who can give multiple innings, but this team is woefully short on guys that would handle higher leverage. Preilipp has the talent for it, but also has the talent to start. Lewis doesn't really have the pitch mix to make sense as a reliever, outside of maybe being a bulk inning guy. Sands has taken a step back this season and looks like a typical reliever in that you'll never be sure which guy you'll get in a season.

And the real issue continues to be ownership, because if the damn Pohlads keep the team, I'm quite certain they'll dump Pablo for salary relief, and I wouldn't be shocked at all if Ryan follows him out the door (even though Ryan should be someone you're trying to extend) because the cheap Pohlads are going to make sure they maximize their profits on their way out the door until they get the price they want. Jeffers probably goes too. They won't be in the Oakland situation of needing to reach a salary floor because even the union will give them a pass for one season; Oakland paid no one for years. They'll let the Twins payroll fall to the bottom for at least one year, especially while the team is being sold.

The good news is there's still talent on the roster and in the high minors that could make this a short turnaround. But there's risk in it and as long as the Pohlads have the team, there's even more risk that anyone making over $5M without a no-trade clause could be heading for the door, which takes away guys that have more proven track records to support the younger players.

I'm excited by what guys like Culpepper & Jenkins can bring, along with other young/younger hitters, and there's a lot of starting pitching depth, along with high-end talent there. But the bullpen is a disaster zone that will not get fixed by just dropping the possibly worst starters into the 'pen in 2026.

Sell the team. Please, sell the team!

Posted

Just a few comments:

1] Ober is in the rotation, not the pen.

2] Which SP options move to the pen will be interesting. Not going to dig in to who's and maybes at this time, but a couple are going to be converted for sure.

3] I don't think Prielipp goes to the pen any time real soon. However, with a handful of solid LH options added to the system over the past couple of years/month, it might be tempting to do so. Someone mentioned 2nd half help next year?

3] Gonzalez does not play all 3 OF spots. He saw 12 games there in 2021 and 2 games in 2022. That's it.

4] Larnach will be gone in a deal or part of a package for help elsewhere.

5] Wallner should be on RF and Rodriguez should be in LF as there is more ground to cover. 

6] If Rodriguez was on the team, no way Outman makes it, or is needed. E Rod is Buxton's backup. Roden and Keaschall can be your #3 emergency options.

7] With Outman gone, now there's room for Gonzalez...or possibly Fedko...for a RH OF, which they need.

I've been going over the same names and possibilities myself. I keep coming up with 2 or 3 solid FA pen arms that don't break the bank and then a veteran 1B for proven production and another veteran in the lineup. Josh Naylor comes to mind. 

Fun stuff! Thanks for the exercise!

Posted

At a minimum, the Twins need to sign/trade for 2 BP arms.  One RH & one LH.  One of these needs to be closer capable.  And I don't expect either to be on the level of Duran/Jax.  However, an upgrade vs Sands/Topa/Tonkin is essential.

The lineup, as proposed, is missing a RH 1st basemen/bench bat.  (Wouldn't it be nice if Miranda could find himself.  He could fill that missing piece.)

Posted

This lineup needs a jolt and the two obvious places to do it are LF and 1st base. If they run Larnach back and hand first to Clemens I will consider it a failure (Clemens can be a utility guy). I’m also hopeful they will be able to raise the quality of the pen to the point where Funderburk is not a part of it 

Posted
1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Two years is a small sample for outman? No. Gasper is how old, and you think this is small samples?

I am certain the major league slash stats for Outman the last two years as well as those for Gasper and Roden are small samples and are not useful for projecting forward. If they matched those sample with mediocre play in AAA the last few years that would be telling. I think the major league samples are further weakened by the sporadic play they have received while on the major league roster.

I don’t know if any can follow through on the promise they have shown in AAA but none have been given any kind of real chance this year if you are basing an assessment by looking at a stat line.

Outman has a high strikeout rate that is real. He showed it in the minors. He showed it in his rookie season where he finished third in ROY. It is hard to be successful in the majors with a high K rate in the minors. That K rate can lead to prolonged slumps. Wallner faces a similar challenge. Had he been on the Dodgers he probably wouldn’t have made it through his month of June. The Dodgers can afford to be less patient.

In spite of awful stat lines the last two years Outman still has a career OPS+ of 100. He is a good outfielder at all three positions. I wouldn’t let him go before they need to cut the roster to 26 next spring.

I don’t think it is wise to make a definitive statement about any of the three based on their major league time the last two seasons. 

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