Could 2025 Twins Execute a 2018-Style MLB Trade Deadline Re-Tool?

[Matt Braun]

Image courtesy of © Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

There's no need to beat around the bush: the Twins stink. And they’re injured. The team is on pace to miss the playoffs for the fourth time in five years, and now that the AL Central possesses a legitimately dominant team, the front office should go back to the drawing boards in multiple facets.

The main issue for the franchise is that a full-on rebuild is off the table. They’re stuck. Bailing on the Carlos Correa/Byron Buxton nucleus isn't an option. There seemed to be a plan when the team handed out large contracts to Buxton, Correa, Christian Vázquez, and Pablo López, before ownership kneecapped their purchasing power and put the team up for sale. Building a competitive team on the cheap isn’t impossible—just ask the Brewers or Guardians—but building one when four guys take up about half the payroll? That’s a different beast. At least Vázquez’s deal is set to expire after the season. 

What they could do is re-tool, or refuel—whichever description strikes your fancy. This is something the team did in 2018. 

Mired in a muck of mediocrity similar to the one the 2025 group appears incapable of escaping, the front office decided to detonate, dealing fan favorites (Eduardo Escobar and Brian Dozier), one-year rentals (Zach Duke and Lance Lynn), and a team-controlled reliever with great potential (Ryan Pressly).

Honestly, the return the Twins received was simply ok. Player-wise, it was probably barely a net positive. Receiving Jhoan Duran for Escobar was a clear win, but that’s the only deal in which they inarguably came out on top. The next-best players were ancillary contributors like Devin Smeltzer and Jorge Alcala. In that respect, following the ethos of that deadline may seem like a questionable move. Yet, the deals opened up opportunities. Miguel Sanó took over third base full-time after Escobar left, and had his best hitting season as a pro. Jonathan Schoop enjoyed a solid year as Dozier’s replacement while Luis Arráez snuck into the fold before becoming a mainstay for the next few years. Minnesota eschewed the inessential. The team made the playoffs in 2019 and 2020. 

With that in mind, let’s look at the levels of trades the team could make.

Level 1: Ty France, Harrison Bader, and Chris Paddack
These are the easiest players to imagine trading. France’s Statcast page speaks to him being a legitimate bat to lengthen a playoff lineup, while Bader is the prototypical fourth outfielder, with Gold Glove corner defense; an ability to play center; and a bat good enough to stick in a lineup without feeling sick about it. Paddack is healthy and available. Considering pitching is often a war of attrition, that could be valuable to a contender. Yet—given all three are on one-year-deals—the return for any player will be minimal, likely an organizational depth piece blocked in their previous franchise. This level is just a start. 

Level 2: Willi Castro
I love Willi Castro. You probably love Willi Castro. Who doesn’t love Willi Castro? Switch-hitters who can play everywhere and hit—like, really hit, at times—do not grow on trees. Yet, they are a luxury. Can the Twins afford luxuries? I don’t think so. This is his final season before hitting free agency, so if Minnesota wants anything beyond a comp pick, they will need to pounce on a trade. Fortunately, his market should be robust, and he could bring back a Duran-esque prospect.

Level 2.5: Trevor Larnach
Let’s throw a surprise in here. Larnach, yet again, has proven to be talented, moderately useful, and a disappointment, relative to his potential. His penchant for grounders makes his dreadful defense hard to stomach, and, well, at some point a player hits the Oswaldo Arcia threshold. He is what he is—at least for the Twins. I could see someone like the Rays taking a chance on trying to unlock him. This would be an “opportunities” trade, as mentioned before.

Level 3: Griffin Jax and/or Jhoan Duran
If you want to compete with the big boys, you need to make big-boy decisions. Jax and Duran are two of the best relievers in franchise history; they’re both top 15 in career fWAR for Twins bullpen arms. And they’re luxuries—volatile ones, at that. Having two fire-breathing dragons in the back end of a bullpen means nothing when the starting pitching crumbles, as it has in recent weeks. At that point, you’re just paying incredible athletes to sit on their ass and watch a game. The good news is that the two are team-controlled for two more seasons after 2025, and bullpen arms are consistently the hottest commodity at the trade deadline. Remember the incredible return Tampa Bay received for Jason Adam last year? Imagine upping that a little, and then imagine doubling it.

Level 4: Joe Ryan and/or Bailey Ober
Ok, I think this step loses the plot. “Re-tooling” and “rebuilding” can be nebulous terms, but I don’t think it’s crazy to say that dealing reliable starting pitchers leans toward the latter. On the other hand, the Rays traded away Tyler Glasnow and got Ryan Pepiot in return, who has been a very good starting pitcher for them. I don’t know. The Rays are weird.

In any case, this is murky territory. Critically, despite interest from other franchises, the team in 2018 did not deal Jake Odorizzi or José Berríos; both starters became All-Stars in 2019. We’ve seen that young hurlers—while intriguing and occasionally brilliant—often take time to adjust at the major-league level. How much do you trust David Festa and Zebby Matthews to be quality big-leaguers in 2026? Would you risk burning a year of Buxton and Correa’s shrinking prime? 

On top of that, you would be selling low on Ober, which is a strategy the current regime has avoided.

This cannot be another year of mild, tepid action. “Business as usual” has resulted in a team behind the 8-ball, in a division now led by a terrific team in Detroit. We saw bold moves pay off for the team seven years ago. Now may be the time to execute a similar plan.

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[Whitey333]

I totally agree.  This team needs an overhaul and that includes the manager.  Do I think much will happen?  No.  Twins are stuck in a rut of their own making.  They will probably just wait for the injured players to come back and miraculously save the season.  Royce Lewis save the season? He has mostly proven he can't hit his way out of a wet paper bag.  Lopez is definitely missed.  But let's be realistic.  He only plays once every 5 days or so.  Who's picking up the slack the other 4 days?  Matthew's?  He's on the injured list but his contributions have been mi small when out there.  I could go on and on with injuries.  My point is I think the injury issue is way overblown as losing excuse number one.  It's time.for change and soon.  Standing pat again at the trade deadline and the upcoming off season would be disastrous. 

[sstolen]

Yep. Why not. Awful is awful and we're awful. 

[NYCTK]

13 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

I think the injury issue is way overblown as losing excuse

Completely agree. This and last season both. Twins have been a healthier than average team. Anyone that uses injuries as an excuse for this team is no worse using the position of mercury in the astrological tables as an excuse. 

[Hubie29]

I was against trading Ober, not anymore. I would try to get as much for him now before he really implodes.  A 90mph very hittable fastball can be found anywhere. I think he is one of the biggest disappointments this year. 

[chinmusic]

11 minutes ago, Hubie29 said:

before he really implodes

Before  he really implodes? I think that train has left the station.

Tonight should be interesting; Seattle's hitting up a storm.

We shall see....

[Peter]

No selling!!!! That’s giving up on season nor should!!! Twins won’t win division but that’s fine. Wild card is more important-no byes as that’s always major disadvantage. Wins will come-just stay the coarse 

[shimrod]

Twins should at least be asking Buxton/Correa what they want to waive the no trade. Buxton is currently at peak value and may be willing to go to a contender. Correa is damaged goods but his contract doesn't fit on a team that won't spend.

Yes, the Twins have a high salary relative to the rest of the Central but recent activity (or lack thereof) indicates the team isn't comfortable with that outlay. Swapping cheap players for other cheap players requires the FO to win a bunch of trades - not counting on that. Freeing up cash to allow the FO to balance performance and salary across the roster may provide a more competitive team.

Retooling should include changing the philosophy as well as the players. A focus on athleticism, fundamentals, and new field leadership is needed. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

It took one comment to call for a manager firing in an unrelated article... We have a new record!

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I don't think they need to go nuclear, but I do think they are circling the drain. 2.5 games out of the WC, with 5 teams ahead of them. Like it or not, the health problems have played a role in the Twins lack of success so far this year. It is not the only reason, but it is significant.

In the past I have always said the Twins have a punchers chance as long as they do not trade any of the big 6: Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Buxton, Correa, and Lewis (though right now I am ready to switch Lewis for Jeffers). I still think that is the case. IMO, the big questions they should be asking internally:

1) Do we extend/re-sign Chris Paddack?
2) How important is Willi Castro to our lineup over the next 3 years? Do we re-sign/extend him?
3) Is this the real version of Harrison Bader? Do we re-sign/extend him?

Outside of those questions and the big 6, everyone else should be considered immediately moveable by the deadline (though a Jax/Duran move could wait until the offseason).

[tony&rodney]

The article seemingly forgot that the team is for sale and the current front office signed players, traded for others, and held still others to create the roster which is exactly what they wanted. The movement in 2018 was to clear the roster of players from previous management. 

Does the author or people who come to Twins Daily believe that the front office will abandon their philosophy of baseball? The mention of the Tampa Bay Rays does not come with a sentence that that team has a completely different outlook and separate evaluation of talent as do teams like Cleveland, Milwaukee, and others.

I'm afraid change will need to wait until the team is sold unless the Pohlad budget, which has eclipsed all other AL Central teams since the hire of the current front office leader, requires that the Twins be at or below $100 million for their 26 person roster. Ironically such a demand, if absolute would result in change.

Until such time then we shall hope the rostered team finds a groove and plays better baseball. Perhaps the Twins catch a number of breaks where they run into series where the other team is not playing well. Hope is all we have until wholesale change from ownership all the way down. 

[OvertheHill]

5 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The article seemingly forgot that the team is for sale and the current front office signed players, traded for others, and held still others to create the roster which is exactly what they wanted. The movement in 2018 was to clear the roster of players from previous management. 

Does the author or people who come to Twins Daily believe that the front office will abandon their philosophy of baseball? The mention of the Tampa Bay Rays does not come with a sentence that that team has a completely different outlook and separate evaluation of talent as do teams like Cleveland, Milwaukee, and others.

I'm afraid change will need to wait until the team is sold unless the Pohlad budget, which has eclipsed all other AL Central teams since the hire of the current front office leader, requires that the Twins be at or below $100 million for their 26 person roster. Ironically such a demand, if absolute would result in change.

Until such time then we shall hope the rostered team finds a groove and plays better baseball. Perhaps the Twins catch a number of breaks where they run into series where the other team is not playing well. Hope is all we have until wholesale change from ownership all the way down. 

I think there’s logic to your viewpoint. If Falvey, FO and Baldelli are truly “dead men walking “ in the sense that they’re out as soon as the team is sold, what realistic incentive do they have to abandon their grand plans and re-tool the roster/organization for a future philosophy? 

[chpettit19]

I agree with the premise and have suggested essentially the same thing in recent days. But it's a weird situation because the front office shouldn't be allowed to run the rebuild/retool/re-whatever you want to call it. 

Assuming there's no more double-digit win streaks and they're roughly around or below .500 at the deadline, my hope is they sell guys in the last year of team control. Get what you can for Castro, France, Bader, and Paddack. But save anyone with more control than that for the offseason for a new regime. That's my hope, not my prediction. 

My prediction is they don't do anything of note at the deadline. There isn't a new regime after the season unless there's new ownership. And the run of our best hope being slightly above mediocre continues.

[DJL44]

I think we will see up to 8 players traded: Castro, Paddack, France, Bader, Vazquez and Coulombe are all pending free agents. Topa and Stewart are old, injury prone relief pitchers who are currently healthy and effective. The front office should already be getting calls on each of them.

I doubt they sell more than that unless someone blows them away with a deal too good to turn down.

[rdehring]

Cincinnati, the Brewers, Cleveland and the Royals are teams I yearn to root for.  Love teams that run, pitch well, play D, and fight till the end.  That the Twins are not.

As they consider what to do, I believe a mid-market team MUST be similar to those mentioned above.  That means the FO must begin a total retool of how this team is structured.  Yes, and coached/managed.

One player I didn't see mentioned was Wallner.  The team the Twins should be can't have two corner outfielders who both bat left handed, are relatively slow, and play marginal D.  Yes, some will tell me that Wallner runs relatively fast.  Problem is he has no quickness which is needed on the bases and in right field.  I believe they should move on from one.  Which one?  Whomever they can get the best return.  As for Correa or Buxton?  Correa should be considered, but Buxton is the face and soul of the Twins.  I for one hope he plays his entire career at Target Field.  And his contract is only what, 50% of Correa's?  Can they still get a reasonable return for Carlos?

Although it is hard watching the Twins play these last couple weeks, it could/should be fun watching what the FO does the next month. 

[tony&rodney]

9 minutes ago, OvertheHill said:

I think there’s logic to your viewpoint. If Falvey, FO and Baldelli are truly “dead men walking “ in the sense that they’re out as soon as the team is sold, what realistic incentive do they have to abandon their grand plans and re-tool the roster/organization for a future philosophy? 

It is possible that Falvey wakes up one morning and decides that everything he ever believed in related to baseball was not conducive to 2025 and beyond. It's possible. What are the odds? I'm one to watch the actions, listen to what is stated, and see the results. I can't guess what the architects of the roster think in their brains. I'm just hoping the team plays some good games now and then. 

[terrydactyls]

1 hour ago, shimrod said:

Freeing up cash to allow the FO to balance performance and salary across the roster may provide a more competitive team.

That probably would 't happen.  Any cash generated would go directly into the pocket of ownership.

[MMMordabito]

1 hour ago, Peter said:

No selling!!!! That’s giving up on season nor should!!! Twins won’t win division but that’s fine. Wild card is more important-no byes as that’s always major disadvantage. Wins will come-just stay the coarse 

Plus the wild card usually comes with a trip to a big city for at least one night.

[umterp23]

Some comments mention new owners to blow up the mgmt regime to improve, move players in the off season. I have no confidence that the team will be sold at a valuation of $1.7B and another +$400MM in debt.  selling team doesn’t seem imminent 
 

What I believe may happen is moving players on expiring contracts if you have depth to move up from minors as your return on trades might not give you plug and play swap of players. Don’t trust mgmt team to find that trade solution. I think wallner should be moved and he may give you good return, but I don’t think his value is worth much. So we may have to part ways with a couple prospects or spice a deal. Not a fan of mgmt to select valued prospects to move

vazquez, who is taking him in a trade (plus is his salary won’t be much) but we aren’t getting any solid mlb ready catcher in return

castro to me would be a good trade if keaschall was healthy but he is weeks away 

france and Paddack make sense to move, but that is a money move only which isn’t much money

we are between a rock and a hard place with no clear path out

[CRF]

With the ownership situation as it currently is...I'd expect them to do even less than they usually do. In other words...they won't do squat. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

15 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

That probably would 't happen.  Any cash generated would go directly into the pocket of ownership.

This is indeed my fear.  On paper, if there is an actual budget that won’t just be stripped away when opportunity presents itself, subtracting substantial contract money should free up said money to be spent on new players moving forward.  I’m not sure we can currently trust that this will happen.  

If it would happen, I would advocate for trading Pablo Lopez.  He’s really good.  I really like him.  But, with Ober (who you can’t really trade right now), Ryan, and Lopez all being free agents in the same year, one of them has to go eventually, and Ryan and Ober are cheaper to hold onto.  I recognize that this puts some trust into guys like Festa and Matthew’s, but they look as good as any young pitchers that we have had in the past, so I say take the chance.  

[4twinsJA]

I am not for a sell off, but retooling would be good. Would like to see trades but only if getting good potential return. If Twins can pull off a few Cruz for Ryan type trades all for it. Trading someone who can help a playoff team now for someone to help Twins in future.

[TwinsDr2021]

I am not defending the owners in anyway, but I could understand their thinking on payroll if they are thinking we signed Lopez and CC to big contracts and Buxton to a decent one, let you spend 30 million on a catcher, and this FO is has been here how many years and can't develop enough young/cheap talent to fill in around them around them. I mean expanding the payroll just runs cover on how bad this FO has been on developing healthy everyday players? No? 

I mean we all know Buxton's injury history and they haven't developed one player capable to be a back up, they have to bring in a player every year just in case? They haven't developed one full time starting left fielder, right fielder or 1st baseman? Second and third has been  a carousel of players? and all the best starting pitchers minus Ober have been brought in. Just saying!

[OvertheHill]

20 minutes ago, 4twinsJA said:

I am not for a sell off, but retooling would be good. Would like to see trades but only if getting good potential return. If Twins can pull off a few Cruz for Ryan type trades all for it. Trading someone who can help a playoff team now for someone to help Twins in future.

I’m having trouble seeing the “Cruz” on our current roster. 

[Exiled in Illinois]

This is our team.  No trades are coming to save us.  No trades are coming to rebuild for the future.  If the players we have perform well, we'll be fine.  They haven't.  If our players stay healthy, we'll be fine.  They haven't. 

IF players are healthy and performing, we'll compete for playoff spot.  This was true last all last off-season, all spring training,  all this season.  It is still true.  Lets hope they can turn it around, again.

[Jeff K]

1 hour ago, Peter said:

No selling!!!! That’s giving up on season nor should!!! Twins won’t win division but that’s fine. Wild card is more important-no byes as that’s always major disadvantage. Wins will come-just stay the coarse 

I love your optimism.  Unfortunately, even if the Twins rebound, I don't believe they are nearly strong enough to go deep in the playoffs.  I would certainly listen to offers on any of the players with expiring contracts if the Twins would benefit in the future from the deal.  

[Edmond Dantes]

26 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I recognize that this puts some trust into guys like Festa and Matthew’s, but they look as good as any young pitchers that we have had in the past, so I say take the chance.  

We must be watching different pitchers, as I haven't seen anything from Festa or Matthews that suggests they are anything but future long relievers. They are two of the biggest disappointments of the season.

[NYCTK]

8 minutes ago, Exiled in Illinois said:

IF players are healthy and performing, we'll compete for playoff spot.

This is a terrible way to build a baseball team. EVERY team has injuries. If you require your team to be a near perfect 100% health in order to just compete for a playoff spot (something that isn't even hard to do) you have a loser organization. 

[mickster]

33 minutes ago, umterp23 said:

Some comments mention new owners to blow up the mgmt regime to improve, move players in the off season. I have no confidence that the team will be sold at a valuation of $1.7B and another +$400MM in debt.  selling team doesn’t seem imminent 
 

What I believe may happen is moving players on expiring contracts if you have depth to move up from minors as your return on trades might not give you plug and play swap of players. Don’t trust mgmt team to find that trade solution. I think wallner should be moved and he may give you good return, but I don’t think his value is worth much. So we may have to part ways with a couple prospects or spice a deal. Not a fan of mgmt to select valued prospects to move

vazquez, who is taking him in a trade (plus is his salary won’t be much) but we aren’t getting any solid mlb ready catcher in return

castro to me would be a good trade if keaschall was healthy but he is weeks away 

france and Paddack make sense to move, but that is a money move only which isn’t much money

we are between a rock and a hard place with no clear path out

   Trading Willi makes some sense as he is a FA and will test the market.   Maybe he would sign back?  This is all on hoping Keaschall can be the player we briefly seen.   I want Vazquez back.   Paddack and France won't bring much so that is trading just to trade.  I would like to see them dangle Lee, and if ever healthy - Royce Lewis.   I am not a fan of Festa at all - I don't think he will ever be more than a back end of the rotation guy so include him.   I would also be looking at dumping Erod if teams want a prospect.

[Vanimal46]

Not sure why Castro is in a separate tier. An expiring contract is an expiring contract. He’s a better version of Escobar when we traded him away. Get value for him if he’s going to test FA. 

Not sure why Coulombe wasn’t included either. Every contending team can use a productive, left handed and breathing reliever. He’ll bring in value. 

I have no desire for Falvey making decisions on players with control beyond this year. I hope he moves on in the offseason so we can get a fresh perspective and philosophy in the organization.