Could 2025 Twins Execute a 2018-Style MLB Trade Deadline Re-Tool?

[Rod Carews Birthday]

14 minutes ago, Edmond Dantes said:

We must be watching different pitchers, as I haven't seen anything from Festa or Matthews that suggests they are anything but future long relievers. They are two of the biggest disappointments of the season.

They are glorified rookies.  VERY few pitchers come up and dominate.  Viola didn’t.  Radke didn’t.  Not even Santana.  They need developmental time, and so far, their early achievements mirror those of other good pitchers.  Might they become disappointments?  Sure, but it’s too early to decide that.  

[Blyleven2011]

I want some excitement for the season , trading free agents to be can be exciting if the return is a favorable one ...

So far,  a 13 game winning streak isn't enough to be an exciting season ...

[AKTwinsFan]

We could still talk to Correa about a trade. He could even ask for one if we stink enough. Talks should be prioritized with him #1.

[Wedman13]

3 hours ago, sstolen said:

Yep. Why not. Awful is awful and we're awful. 

I see what ur saying but slightly disagree.  We are right in the middle, mediocre.... and that is an even worse place to be than awful.  Middling is exactly the time to blow it all up, hope to re-tool and give it a run in 2-3 years.  Fans are apathetic anyway so get a bunch of fresh blood while you can.  If not, we'll be having the same discussion in 2 years.  No one should be off limits.

[saviking]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I don't think they need to go nuclear, but I do think they are circling the drain. 2.5 games out of the WC, with 5 teams ahead of them. Like it or not, the health problems have played a role in the Twins lack of success so far this year. It is not the only reason, but it is significant.

In the past I have always said the Twins have a punchers chance as long as they do not trade any of the big 6: Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Buxton, Correa, and Lewis (though right now I am ready to switch Lewis for Jeffers). I still think that is the case. IMO, the big questions they should be asking internally:

1) Do we extend/re-sign Chris Paddack?
2) How important is Willi Castro to our lineup over the next 3 years? Do we re-sign/extend him?
3) Is this the real version of Harrison Bader? Do we re-sign/extend him?

Outside of those questions and the big 6, everyone else should be considered immediately moveable by the deadline (though a Jax/Duran move could wait until the offseason).

I NEVER liked shelling out 36 mill a year to one player on a small market team. I agree with everything you said but the only way we could really rebuild is to unload Correa and his salary. We did after his first year and then got sucked right back in. 

But nobody is going to take an aging (often i lnjured) star off our hands and pay his salary so we're stuck with him. Can you imagine what we could do with that 36 million if we could. I mean, I'd just give him to someone if they woukd take him and his salary. 

Okay, hit me with the hate responses like always happens when I posted this opinion over the last 3 years. I'm hardened. I can handle it. 

 

 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

38 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Not sure why Castro is in a separate tier. An expiring contract is an expiring contract. He’s a better version of Escobar when we traded him away. Get value for him if he’s going to test FA. 

 

 

Not sure why Coulombe wasn’t included either. Every contending team can use a productive, left handed and breathing reliever. He’ll bring in value. 

I have no desire for Falvey making decisions on players with control beyond this year. I hope he moves on in the offseason so we can get a fresh perspective and philosophy in the organization. 

100 percent.

[Mike Sixel]

37 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

They are glorified rookies.  VERY few pitchers come up and dominate.  Viola didn’t.  Radke didn’t.  Not even Santana.  They need developmental time, and so far, their early achievements mirror those of other good pitchers.  Might they become disappointments?  Sure, but it’s too early to decide that.  

This. This board has no patience for youth at all, despite constantly clamouring for it. 

[Doc Lenz]

After the Team is sold and the new owners pack up and leave for Charlotte or Nashville they will hire top talent to run the team.

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Doc Lenz said:

After the Team is sold and the new owners pack up and leave for Charlotte or Nashville they will hire top talent to run the team.

Beautiful stadium and a team with a rich history. The Twins aren’t going anywhere.

[mickster]

19 minutes ago, AKTwinsFan said:

We could still talk to Correa about a trade. He could even ask for one if we stink enough. Talks should be prioritized with him #1.

HE won't bring back the value he has with the Twins.   No way we should package him

[mikelink45]

This is fun speculation - the only type article the Twins have provided for the writers at this point.  But I have no strong feelings on this.  Not sure I trust Falvey to get the return we want, not sure what the Twins future will be, not sure about the rookie pitchers and their potential.  And not sure about the next owner and management and when or if that happens.  

Keep speculating.  That is all that is left for us before we win 13 in a row again.

[DJL44]

10 minutes ago, AKTwinsFan said:

We could still talk to Correa about a trade. He could even ask for one if we stink enough. Talks should be prioritized with him #1.

What contender is looking to add Carlos Correa for the stretch run? Maybe the Yankees would want him at 3B so they could move Chisholm to 2B. That's about the only fit I can find.

[RpR]

7 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

What contender is looking to add Carlos Correa for the stretch run? Maybe the Yankees would want him at 3B so they could move Chisholm to 2B. That's about the only fit I can find.

And turn the SS position into a black whole.

The Twins have NO ONE to replace his glove, not even to small degree.

[RpR]

3 hours ago, Peter said:

No selling!!!! That’s giving up on season nor should!!! Twins won’t win division but that’s fine. Wild card is more important-no byes as that’s always major disadvantage. Wins will come-just stay the coarse 

I agree!

Many here just want to sell -  or watch their young boys come up and fail in the Bigs, not caring how the Twins actually do.

[Edmond Dantes]

1 hour ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

They are glorified rookies.  VERY few pitchers come up and dominate.  Viola didn’t.  Radke didn’t.  Not even Santana.  They need developmental time, and so far, their early achievements mirror those of other good pitchers.  Might they become disappointments?  Sure, but it’s too early to decide that.  

Both Festa and Mathews are 25. When Viola and Radke were 25 their ERAs were 4.09 and 4.3; Festa's and Mathews' are 6.39 and 5.21. More importantly, Viola and Radke averaged 6.9 and 6.65 innings over 30ish starts; Festa and Mathews are averaging 4.4 and 4.75. I hope they prove me wrong, but I doubt it. Did you watch last Friday's game? 23 year old Misiorowski is 2-0 with a 1.64 ERA. 

[DJL44]

23 minutes ago, RpR said:

And turn the SS position into a black whole.

The Twins have NO ONE to replace his glove, not even to small degree.

I agree, though it wouldn't matter for 2025 since they would be waving the white flag. Brooks Lee could help them limp through the rest of the season.

If they want to compete next season, they would need to acquire a SS. Culpepper is the next potential SS and I don't expect to see him as a regular until 2027. I also think Carlos Correa will be a lesser defender in 2027 compared to his abilities now.

[jmlease1]

3 hours ago, rdehring said:

Cincinnati, the Brewers, Cleveland and the Royals are teams I yearn to root for.  Love teams that run, pitch well, play D, and fight till the end.  That the Twins are not.

It's hilarious that you've included Cincinnati in this list. Talked to many Cincy fans over the last few seasons? They've been begging ownership to sell the team, and have struggled mightily for a decade. After 4 years in a row where they were dead last in their division, they've followed it up with exactly 1 playoff appearance, threw in another 100 loss season, and haven't won 90 games since 2013. They're barely above .500 this season. They're not even particularly young as a team outside of De La Cruz and Greene, and my god they have Pagan as their closer (which is working out so far this season, but would you feel good about it?)

I've been getting the texts from a Reds fan for a decade about how much they suck, how hopeless the franchise is, how stupid the management is, and even this season it's been a deluge of "Elly is amazing! Greene is elite!! why doesn't anyone else on this team give a damn?!?"

The grass is not always greener.

I'm fairly uninterested in an attempt to retool midseason until the team is sold. Because it's fairly likely that the new ownership will bring in their own people, even if someone like Falvey might end up staying for at least a season or two. (Rocco seems like the most likely candidate for a new ownership "splash" move where they signal that things are "going to be different" by firing the manager) New ownership is probably going to retool as well and retooling after retooling almost guarantees that one of them will go badly.

Get new ownership in. The fish rots from the head. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

24 minutes ago, Edmond Dantes said:

Both Festa and Mathews are 25. When Viola and Radke were 25 their ERAs were 4.09 and 4.3; Festa's and Mathews' are 6.39 and 5.21. More importantly, Viola and Radke averaged 6.9 and 6.65 innings over 30ish starts; Festa and Mathews are averaging 4.4 and 4.75. I hope they prove me wrong, but I doubt it. Did you watch last Friday's game? 23 year old Misiorowski is 2-0 with a 1.64 ERA. 

Fine.  Your mileage varies.  I get it. However, if you are going to sit around and wait for a pitcher to come up and dominate, it’s going to be a VERY long wait — on this team or any other.  Those are very fluky things and we’ll see if he maintains it after 20 starts.  Also, compared to the average pitcher in those years, Radke and Viola were probably on the low end of the spectrum for innings pitched per start.  It was a different league and a different time.  They certainly weren’t striking out as many hitters per nine innings as Matthews and Festa either, but that apparently doesn’t matter. .  

[DJL44]

42 minutes ago, RpR said:

Many here just want to sell -  or watch their young boys come up and fail in the Bigs, not caring how the Twins actually do.

Teams that are below .500 at the deadline (and the Twins are 3 games under at the moment) typically sell veterans for prospects. That should be expected. I don't expect them to blow up the whole roster. The "fire everyone, trade all the players" crowd is just angry yargle-bargle. If they said "I'm angry and it's affecting my ability to think" it would be more accurate.

[Doctor Gast]

You gave tiers to the trade options, Where do you rank Escobar, Dozier & Pressley? 3 or 4? Duran was considered a dud until he was put in the BP, everybody else never really made much of an impact. I don't see anyone from tier 1-2 to offer up much, unless they are packaged up together & very good player evaluation on players we get in return. Larnach won't offer up much unless some team is desperate; he'd have been worth much more if dealt earlier. I'm a fan of Wallner, but I'm willing to trade him. Because, as I mentioned before, the Twins need a new identity of better defense & aggressive baserunning; Wallner doesn't fit into that mold & we could use him to pick up a promising young MLB-ready catcher.

I really don't trust Festa or Matthews yet at this stage of their game to trade a SP, BP is tricky. Some suggest resigning some tier 1 or 2 tier players. I'd be open to resign Bader, Castro or Vazquez if the price is right. 

[Larry Janisewski]

5 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

I totally agree.  This team needs an overhaul and that includes the manager.  Do I think much will happen?  No.  Twins are stuck in a rut of their own making.  They will probably just wait for the injured players to come back and miraculously save the season.  Royce Lewis save the season? He has mostly proven he can't hit his way out of a wet paper bag.  Lopez is definitely missed.  But let's be realistic.  He only plays once every 5 days or so.  Who's picking up the slack the other 4 days?  Matthew's?  He's on the injured list but his contributions have been mi small when out there.  I could go on and on with injuries.  My point is I think the injury issue is way overblown as losing excuse number one.  It's time.for change and soon.  Standing pat again at the trade deadline and the upcoming off season would be disastrous. 

I agree about overblowing the injury excuse. Every team has injuries. The good teams find someone (often times in their minor leagues to bridge the gap). The Brewers who just pummeled the Twins have done so without their best starter not having played since 2023 and used a rookie making only his 2nd major league start to throw 5 perfect innings vs the Twins. The Brewers used 17 different stating pitchers last year and still made the playoffs. The Braves have likewise won without having their best players available (Acuna most of last year and last week brought up a pitcher who had just turned 20 years old two days before he started for them.

[1985Fan]

The benefit of selling off expiring contract players isn’t what they get in return, it’s freeing up roster spot for the next group of players to get playing time to evaluate organization talent level. Let’s see what ERod, Sabato, McCusker, Holland, ,and others can do if given playing time.
I don’t think they should sell Correa or Vazquez bc there isn’t an obvious replacement waiting at AAA. Although Winkel should get some time at Target field if he is defensively solid catcher. 
That is my opinion based on a retool vs. a complete rebuild/overhaul. Until Falvey and Baldelli are gone when new owners take control, they shouldn’t be trusted with anything more than a retool. As has been said by others here, this FO will just bring in the same flawed players they have loaded up the roster with now. 
IMO a new manger can make a difference. Stressing defense & fundamentals as TK did when he took over, and holding players accountable will make a difference. Plus manager controls plying time, which is important for developing players. 

[TwinsDr2021]

4 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

They are glorified rookies.  VERY few pitchers come up and dominate.  Viola didn’t.  Radke didn’t.  Not even Santana.  They need developmental time, and so far, their early achievements mirror those of other good pitchers.  Might they become disappointments?  Sure, but it’s too early to decide that.  

Another comparison of Twins prospects to legit all star type players when in reality the only thing they have in common is their are pitchers on the Twins.

Funny you mention Viola, Radke and Santana.

Santana age 25 season won the Cy Young, age 24 7th in the Cy Young,

Radke age 24 season 3 in the Cy Young, 25th in the MVP age 25 season all star.

Viola age 24 season 6th in the Cy Young, 

Yes all three of these guys struggled early in their career ages 21, 22, 23,

Festa has struggled in age 24 and age 25 season, Oh same with Matthews, SWR was decent his age 23 season but is struggling again at age 24.

I don't think anybody is looking for them to dominate, But wouldn't it be nice if they were a bit further along then they are? By the time the three you mentioned were in their prime years, 26-29 they were proven and humming along, These three still huge question marks.

Maybe compare them to the Scott Baker's, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Kyle Lohse, Adalberto Mejia, Scott Diamond, Brian Duensing's of the world because they are WAY, WAY closer to them then the three you mentioned. If you want to be generous maybe Kyle Gibson (maybe he is the best comparison)

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Another comparison of Twins prospects to legit all star type players when in reality the only thing they have in common is their are pitchers on the Twins.

Funny you mention Viola, Radke and Santana.

Santana age 25 season won the Cy Young, age 24 7th in the Cy Young,

Radke age 24 season 3 in the Cy Young, 25th in the MVP age 25 season all star.

Viola age 24 season 6th in the Cy Young, 

Yes all three of these guys struggled early in their career ages 21, 22, 23,

Festa has struggled in age 24 and age 25 season, Oh same with Matthews, SWR was decent his age 23 season but is struggling again at age 24.

I don't think anybody is looking for them to dominate, But wouldn't it be nice if they were a bit further along then they are? By the time the three you mentioned were in their prime years, 26-29 they were proven and humming along, These three still huge question marks.

Maybe compare them to the Scott Baker's, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Kyle Lohse, Adalberto Mejia, Scott Diamond, Brian Duensing's of the world because they are WAY, WAY closer to them then the three you mentioned. If you want to be generous maybe Kyle Gibson (maybe he is the best comparison)

 

 

Why are we looking at ages, and not years in the league?

[TwinsDr2021]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

If they want to compete next season, they would need to acquire a SS. Culpepper is the next potential SS and I don't expect to see him as a regular until 2027.

Culpepper turns 23 in the off season, there is no reason he can't be a regular someplace next season, if it is 27 he will just be another in the line of 24 year olds the Twins are still trying to figure out. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

8 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Another comparison of Twins prospects to legit all star type players when in reality the only thing they have in common is their are pitchers on the Twins.

Funny you mention Viola, Radke and Santana.

Santana age 25 season won the Cy Young, age 24 7th in the Cy Young,

Radke age 24 season 3 in the Cy Young, 25th in the MVP age 25 season all star.

Viola age 24 season 6th in the Cy Young, 

Yes all three of these guys struggled early in their career ages 21, 22, 23,

Festa has struggled in age 24 and age 25 season, Oh same with Matthews, SWR was decent his age 23 season but is struggling again at age 24.

I don't think anybody is looking for them to dominate, But wouldn't it be nice if they were a bit further along then they are? By the time the three you mentioned were in their prime years, 26-29 they were proven and humming along, These three still huge question marks.

Maybe compare them to the Scott Baker's, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Kyle Lohse, Adalberto Mejia, Scott Diamond, Brian Duensing's of the world because they are WAY, WAY closer to them then the three you mentioned. If you want to be generous maybe Kyle Gibson (maybe he is the best comparison)

 

 

I'm not comparing at their chronological ages.  I'm comparing their first couple of years in the league.  I'm not suggesting that the two of them will become these star pitchers.  I'm merely suggesting that Viola, Radke, and Santana weren't world beaters the first year or two they were in the majors.  As I said earlier, if you want guys who are going to dominate the competition (or even be really competitive) right out of the gate, it's going to be a mostly disappointing endeavor, but I will applaud greatly if the Twins uncover one.  Bert Blyleven was pretty dominant at 19 years old, but he's in the Hall of Fame.  I'll be very happy with good solid MLB starting pitcher as my measure.  

[TwinsDr2021]

10 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Why are we looking at ages, and not years in the league?

ummm, because history tells us pretty accurately how good a player is going to be based on when they first see the majors. Is it 100%, no for sure not. But the list of players that come up after age 24 and succeed (for multiple years) in a full time/starter type player is a heck of a lot shorter than those that come up earlier. Looks at the names I mentioned that are better comparisons for a few example. You and others might not like using age as a stat to predict how players careers will most likely end up but it isn't any different than any other stat that is used in the game today. I mean why do teams shift? 

Should it be strange that Castro is a pretty good player? I mean the Detroit thought he was going to be pretty good he was up at age 22, yes it took him a couple of years to figure out, but since he was up early he was given the chance and was an all star at age 27, christ half of the Twins players they are still trying to figure out is his age or close to it. 

I mean I keep hearing any player in the Twins minor league that is 22 is a couple of years away. 

[Mike Sixel]

6 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

ummm, because history tells us pretty accurately how good a player is going to be based on when they first see the majors. Is it 100%, no for sure not. But the list of players that come up after age 24 and succeed (for multiple years) in a full time/starter type player is a heck of a lot shorter than those that come up earlier. Looks at the names I mentioned that are better comparisons for a few example. You and others might not like using age as a stat to predict how players careers will most likely end up but it isn't any different than any other stat that is used in the game today. I mean why do teams shift? 

Should it be strange that Castro is a pretty good player? I mean the Detroit thought he was going to be pretty good he was up at age 22, yes it took him a couple of years to figure out, but since he was up early he was given the chance and was an all star at age 27, christ half of the Twins players they are still trying to figure out is his age or close to it. 

I mean I keep hearing any player in the Twins minor league that is 22 is a couple of years away. 

It's very hard for a college player to be in their third year in the league at 24...... Especially if they are mid round picks. I think we should celebrate they are getting value from mid to late round picks. Ymmv, of course. I'm just not giving up on guys that haven't even been in the league for a year. 

[Mike Sixel]

20 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Culpepper turns 23 in the off season, there is no reason he can't be a regular someplace next season, if it is 27 he will just be another in the line of 24 year olds the Twins are still trying to figure out. 

He could be, but that means one of Lewis, CC, or Keaschell, and maybe Lee too, are gone. To be a regular less than two years in baseball is not common, but not unheard of. Which of those do you expect him to replace next year as a regular?

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, 1985Fan said:

The benefit of selling off expiring contract players isn’t what they get in return, it’s freeing up roster spot for the next group of players to get playing time to evaluate organization talent level. Let’s see what ERod, Sabato, McCusker, Holland, ,and others can do if given playing time.

Sabato and Holland are still down in the pecking order. This is who I see getting the playing time if they move players:

Bader -> Martin

Castro -> Keaschall

France -> Gasper

Coulombe-> Funderburk

Vazquez -> Camargo

Paddack -> Matthews

That doesn't even figure in a possible return of Julien or Miranda.

There's also the players they receive from the trades to consider. I doubt they will prioritize getting A-ball prospects in return.