Twins 3, Cardinals 5: St. Louis Swamps Twins in Quiescent Opening Day Defeat

[Matt Braun]

I blame the rain. 

Image courtesy of © Jeff Curry-Imagn Images

Box Score
Pablo López: 5 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
Home Runs: Harrison Bader (1)
Bottom 3 WPA: Pablo López (.199), José Miranda (-.185), Carlos Correa (-.112)
Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

It’s here. It’s finally here, and only an hour and a half late. The long winter silence gave way to the greatest two words in the English lexicon: Play ball. A time for purple prose, nostalgia, and swearing at our favorite players, whom we haven’t seen in real action for months. Nothing else in life will ever beat it. 

Pablo López earned first-game honors for the third straight season. Somehow, all three starts have come in the state of Missouri. Fate is a funny thing. While those previous starts were successes, this one was laborious. He pitched… a lot. Too much, really. St. Louis’s hitters refused his attempts at subterfuge and, in fact, punked the one who usually tricks: twice, the Venezuelan was caught unable to handle a stealing runner at first base. The first set up the game's opening run; the second preceded a disastrous two-run homer off the bat of Lars Nootbaar.

The Cardinals added a fourth and final run in the 3rd, after which López settled in marvelously. Getting through the first inning or two was his bugaboo throughout last season. Sadly, it doesn't look like he's found the remedy for that problem yet.

Starting against López was Sonny Gray, his former partner in crime. In 2023, they worked as one of the best 1-2 punches in baseball. Now, Gray remains one of the trickiest pitchers in baseball. “Yeah, that’s what he does,” this author thought, following a number of his offerings on Thursday. Fastballs sliced the corners as breakers dipped and dotted just outside the zone—enticing all the same, they were, and Twins hitters often bit. He ended the game as the superior hurler.

But, he wasn’t perfect. With a man on first, one of those classic Gray off-speed pitches found too much of the zone, and Harrison Bader—making a homecoming against the team that drafted and developed him—drove the pitch out to left field. So much for a glove-only signing.

Following Gray's sixth-inning exit, Minnesota rallied for a third run, thanks to an RBI double from Willi Castro. 

That very rally was somewhat bittersweet, though, as St. Louis’ center fielder, Victor Scott II, robbed Ty France of a potentially game-tying knock smacked deep into the right-center gap. This one is not to be confused with France’s other potentially game-tying knock smacked deep into right-center caught by Scott just two innings later. So it goes. 

A Nolan Arenado homer in the bottom of the eighth capped the scoring, and the Twins, despite some minor drama created by Bader in the ninth, fell to the Cardinals in 2025's season opener. They'll have to be a bit more ready when the first pitch is thrown Saturday.

Notes:

Thursday saw Harrison Bader's first career homer against his old team, the Cardinals. 

DaShawn Keirsey Jr. stole his first career MLB base.

Trevor Larnach reached base three times in a game for the first time since September 25th, 2024, which isn't as impressive a stat as this author expected it to be. 

Post-Game Interview:

 

What’s Next?
The Twins and Cardinals will enjoy a free Friday before returning to action on Saturday. Joe Ryan will start opposite Erick Fedde with first pitch coming at 1:15 PM.

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

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[Patzky]

Rain will be a thing for Saturday and Sunday too..

[h2oface]

That Lopez and Correa. They really know how to prepare for the season. Respected vets. Don't worry about them.

When the unearned runs are caused by the pitcher's own futility and error, since a kid, I have always thought they should count as earned. 

[Peter]

Tough loss to start out season 😭 is it to early to hit panic button yet? Seriously after last year I feel this is very important year for us to win division/go deep in playoffs! 

[#3Killer]

Top three guys in the lineup go 0-12.Wallner( our leadoff guy???) did draw a walk tho..,,   

[SteveLV]

Different season, same story.

Lopez mediocre, hardly an ace.  He is ok, not dominant in any way.

Anemic offense, and 1-8 with RISP.  

Heading for another average season.

Meanwhile, Dodgers are already 3-0 and heading for > 100 wins.

Baseball remains broken.

[Jocko87]

Why only bottom three WPA?

[DJL44]

Can I get a few more down votes in the lineup thread about the decision to start Bader over Dashawn Keirsey? Clearly a stupid idea to start the veteran, former Cardinal on Opening Day instead of the 28-year old rookie with less than 20 at-bats in his career.

[USAFChief]

Last place in the ALC! And I don't see any way we're climbing out of last place tomorrow either!!1

[Blyleven2011]

Same old thing , errors and lack of situational hitting with bases loaded and 1 out , nothing to show for it ...

St Louis is a class act on opening day , I always tune in on the cardinals opening day festivities each year ...

Now if you were watching carefully when the announcer announced our twins reserves  , our player's looked apprehensive to take the field and line up , no enthusiasm for the first game of the season ...

This team has no emotion , no spark and that's another knock on the manager  , I miss our spark plug ignitor arraez , he brought a spark to the lineup  ...

Sonny gray and the cardinals defense was good for the win ...

Twins hitters against good pitching are left helpless , you can't beat good pitching during the season,  you won't win in the playoffs , I know it's only 1 game that counts but it's worth taking notice of this as we play through the season ...

[Parfigliano]

Lack of RISP hitting.  Lack of contact with runner on 3rd less then 2 outs.  Nothing new.

[Sjoski]

[Dman]

Kind of felt like last years Twins just good enough to lose.  Completely handcuffed with RISP.  It's gonna be a long season.

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, Jocko87 said:

Why only bottom three WPA?

I know we have goldfish memories these days, but that’s been the case since this post game format was implemented years ago. Win = top 3 WPA, Loss = bottom 3 WPA

[Vanimal46]

Gonna need a little bit more than 0-12 from 1-3 in the batting order. 

[Vanimal46]

Also, what’s everyone’s thoughts seeing the Progressive logo throughout the broadcast on the upper right corner of the screen? No bueno from me. 

[Jocko87]

28 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

I know we have goldfish memories these days, but that’s been the case since this post game format was implemented years ago. Win = top 3 WPA, Loss = bottom 3 WPA

My goldfish is fine, I just disagree with that format.  Bader and Larnach need called out as well.  No wonder everyone is so negative.

1 minute ago, Vanimal46 said:

Also, what’s everyone’s thoughts seeing the Progressive logo throughout the broadcast on the upper right corner of the screen? No bueno from me. 

Meh, I like the thing on the mound less.  I’m just waiting for Progressive TV from Progressive Field.  Like the rivalry needed any more spice. 

Egregious (or elite) double dipping by Progressive.

[AlLagoon]

Doom and gloom, just what I expected to find here. 

Only 161 games to go. Gee, they might win a few.

[Schmoeman5]

1 hour ago, Sjoski said:

I think they beat KC the last 2 openers

[knothole61]

Okay, that whole Opening Day thing in St.Louis (one heck of a baseball town!) is over. Now, rest up and take the series. I like our pitching match ups the rest of the way against the Cards, and there's a good chance we'll head into our showdown with the high flying White Sox at a respectable 2-1.

I consider Lopez to be a fragile ace. Like an old Austin-Healey I used to have, he's magnificent when things are in perfect sync, but one is always waiting for that cough and sputter that is bound to appear, often at the most inopportune times. 

 

[VivaBomboRivera!]

The White Sox lead the Central.  It's all over, folks.

[Sjoski]

6 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

7 hours ago, Sjoski said:

I think they beat KC the last 2 openers

They beat kc 2-0 last year....but they have gone 4-12 in the last 16 seasons. 

[Karbo]

They were sure aggressive at the plate to start the game. Gray still looks like a winner out there. Too bad the Twins couldn't keep him. Bader looked good as did France. That CFer for the Cards sure can play.

[CRF]

Really don't like Wallner in the 1 spot. I suppose Rocco will put him there most of the season too. 

[Riverbrian]

Good games from Bader, France and Larnach!!!

That balk call still bothers me. Where was the hand flinch? 

[Doctor Gast]

One bright spot yesterday. After prolonged playing on an injured knee in '22, Polanco (Mr Clutch) is finally healthy. He got 3 of 5 SEA hits, 3 for 3 with a game-winning HR in the bottom of the 8th. Congratulations Polanco! I miss him.

Congratulations to Keirsey on his 1st of many SB,

 

[Doctor Gast]

Sonny Gray's velo is down, so you know he was going to throw a lot of junk. So I don't understand the Twins' aggressiveness at the plate.

[Doctor Wu]

10 hours ago, SteveLV said:

Different season, same story.

Lopez mediocre, hardly an ace.  He is ok, not dominant in any way.

Anemic offense, and 1-8 with RISP.  

Heading for another average season.

Meanwhile, Dodgers are already 3-0 and heading for > 100 wins.

Baseball remains broken.

Is it possible to buy a whole set of voodoo dolls for the entire Dodgers team? I can't put into words how much I have come to hate that organization. But as another poster just noted; baseball is indeed broken. 

[TwinsDr2021]

It is one game, I am not worried about one game.

I will say this though, everything about yesterday screamed same old Twins. 11 K's, 8 hits, 1 - 8 with RISP, 5 pitches used, and a few guys looking foolish trying to pull balls they had no business pulling. Jeffers had a few swings that make him look like a minor league hitter, him and Miranda need to watch France's approach.

Finally France looked pretty good at first as did Willson Contreras, who by the way has played first a grand total of 11 times in his career with 4 starts, can we stop with how hard it is to play first?

 

[jmlease1]

It's just one game, so I refuse to overreact. But this might be the template for Twins losses this season: starter isn't sharp early, defense does us no favors, offense never really gets going, other team plays pretty well. But that's always going to be a losing formula?

Some good and bad out there for sure:

• Ty France looks meh fielding out there...but did a nice job on scoops.
• Correa was a bit unlucky at the plate and didn't get the hits we needed...but also started a great DP
• Jax just looked a little off and really labored, but Topa's velocity looked up
• Wallner didn't get it going at all, but didn't look lost like he did at the start of last season either
• Larnach had good ABs which led to good results
• Bader looked great. Hope I'm wrong about him at the plate; it's just one game, but he did great.
• Miranda handled 3B pretty well (with some help from France); he made a really nice play charging in with a runner dancing in front of him that was good to see
• Varland looked just fine in the bullpen; I suspect he might have gone an additional inning if there wasn't an off day today?

Twins just started a little flat. Maybe it's the rain delay, but StL had to deal with that too. (though it might be easier to handle when you're at home?) Need to come out better on Sat.