How the Twins Stack Up in the AL’s Tiebreaker Tangle

The American League playoff picture is getting increasingly difficult to figure out. That isn't necessarily a bad thing, especially for Twins fans. 

With the regular season entering its final stretch, several teams remain firmly in the postseason conversation, but very few have separated themselves enough to make the final weeks feel predictable. There is even a realistic possibility that at least one team with a losing record could qualify for the playoffs. Depending on how the final weeks unfold, the AL West champion could potentially finish below .500.

It is a strange year. But baseball has never required a team to have a pretty record once October arrives. The standings reset when the postseason begins, and a team that sneaks into the playoffs can suddenly become the team nobody wants to face.

That is why the Minnesota Twins still have reason to pay close attention to the American League playoff picture. Minnesota has put itself in the conversation, and the next several weeks could come down to more than simply who finishes with the most wins. Head-to-head records and other tiebreakers could become extremely important.

Remember Game 163?

There was a time when baseball fans could circle the calendar for a potential Game 163. Before the current playoff format, a tie at the end of the regular season could produce a winner-take-all tiebreaker game. Twins fans have some particularly memorable history with that setup.

In 2009, the Twins and Detroit Tigers met at the Metrodome for Game 163 to determine the AL Central champion. Minnesota won 6-5 in an unforgettable 12-inning game that remains one of the most memorable contests in franchise history. A year earlier, the Twins were on the other side of the equation. Minnesota faced the Chicago White Sox in a 2008 tiebreaker for the AL Central, but Jim Thome's home run gave Chicago a 1-0 victory. 

Those games are gone now. Under the expanded playoff format, baseball has eliminated the traditional Game 163. If two teams finish with identical records, the winner is determined by a series of predetermined tiebreakers. And if the AL playoff race remains this crowded, Twins fans might want to know exactly how those rules work.

How MLB Breaks a Playoff Tie

The league essentially works its way through five levels of tiebreakers.

1. Head-to-head record: This is the first and most straightforward method when two teams are tied. The team that performed better against the other club gets the advantage.

For a tie involving multiple teams, MLB looks at the teams' combined winning percentages against the other clubs involved in the tie. If that doesn't settle everything, the process continues by resolving the remaining teams through the applicable head-to-head records. The important point is that games played against one another can carry significant weight late in the season.

2. Intradivision record: If the head-to-head results don't settle the matter, the league moves to a team's record against opponents within its own division. This can become particularly important in a multi-team tiebreaker or when comparing Wild Card teams from different divisions.

3. Intraleague record: Next comes the team's overall record against the rest of the American League. That means every AL game matters, even if it isn't against a direct Wild Card competitor.

4. Record over the final half of intraleague games: If the previous three methods still haven't separated the teams, MLB goes deeper into the schedule. The league examines winning percentage over the second half of a team's intraleague schedule.

5. Continue working backward through intraleague games: Still tied? The league keeps moving backward, adding one game at a time to the sample until a difference emerges. So, no, there isn't going to be a Game 163. There could, however, be a lot of scoreboard watching.

How the Twins Stack Up

This is where things get particularly interesting for Minnesota. The Twins have already played a large portion of their schedule against several of the teams competing for postseason positioning. And in many cases, they have done quite well.

Here is how Minnesota has fared against some of the key AL contenders:

• Houston Astros: Twins lead the season series 4-2, with no games remaining.
• Texas Rangers: Twins lead 3-0, with three games remaining on the final weekend of the regular season at Target Field
• Toronto Blue Jays: Twins lead 4-3, with no games remaining.
• Cleveland Guardians: Twins lead 6-4, with three games remaining at Target Field from September 11-13.
• Detroit Tigers: Twins lead 5-2, with six games remaining — three in Detroit and three at Target Field.
• Baltimore Orioles: Series is tied 3-3, with no games remaining.
• Seattle Mariners: Seattle leads 4-2, with no games remaining.

That is a pretty favorable collection of results. The Mariners are the obvious exception, while the Orioles series ended evenly. Against several of the other teams Minnesota could potentially be battling for a postseason spot, however, the Twins have already established an advantage. And there are still opportunities to improve those numbers. The three remaining games against Texas could be particularly important. So could the six games against Detroit and the three against Cleveland.

Those games aren't simply chances to add wins to the standings. They could also provide Minnesota with another layer of protection if the final records end up being identical.

The Twins Have One of the Better Intraleague Records

There is another reason for Minnesota to feel relatively comfortable about its position in a crowded AL race. Among the Wild Card contenders listed above, the Twins are the only team with a winning record both within their division and against the American League as a whole. Minnesota is .514 within the AL Central and .547 against the entire American League.  That .547 intraleague mark is particularly notable because it is the best among the group.

That doesn't guarantee anything. The Twins could win their intraleague tiebreaker and still miss the postseason because another team finishes with more victories. But in a race where several teams could finish within a game or two of one another, having a strong record against the rest of the league could become extremely valuable. And Minnesota has already taken care of business against several potential postseason opponents.

Everything Is Still on the Table

That is probably the best way to describe the American League playoff picture. Everything is still on the table.

A team with a losing record could potentially reach October. A division winner could potentially finish below .500. Several Wild Card contenders are separated by relatively little, and the final standings could come down to tiebreakers rather than a dramatic Game 163.

For the Twins, the good news is that they have already built some advantages. Now they simply need to keep winning. That part is considerably easier to understand than the tiebreaker rules.

Minnesota doesn't need to worry about who wins the head-to-head tiebreaker if it finishes several games ahead of everybody else. It doesn't need to worry about intraleague records if it simply accumulates more victories than the teams chasing it. But if the AL race stays this chaotic, those details could matter. And unlike the old days, there won't be another game at the end of the season to settle everything on the field.

The Twins may have to settle it in the standings. And if they can keep themselves in the race long enough, those early-season wins against the teams around them could end up being every bit as important as the ones they collect in September.

What sticks out about the tie breaker scenarios? How do you feel about the Twins' position? Leave a comment and start the discussion.