Is the Ty France Deal Riskier Than It Seems for the Twins?

[Cody Pirkl]

The Twins spent a meager $1 million to bring in a new first-base candidate, on a non-guaranteed deal. It feels like the investment of playing time and faith will be greater than that, though. Should we be concerned about how the Twins are handling first base?

Image courtesy of © John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

The last time Ty France put up a strong offensive stat line for a first baseman was in 2022. When the Twins signed him to a minuscule, non-guaranteed deal this week, it made good sense. At 30 years old, France could have a bounce-back performance, and the Twins needed some competition for José Miranda at first base. Now that more information is coming out, it seems as though the Twins are enormous fans of France. That could be a problem.

It sounds like France’s non-guaranteed deal was only classified that way as a formality. After France couldn’t find a job all offseason and 29 other teams declined to guarantee him a deal, the Twins see him as a near-everyday player. It’s great that the Twins have high hopes for France, but him being a perceived veteran option could turn out to be a problem, based on the track record of the Derek Falvey regime.

At this point, it’s safe to say that the Twins value veteran status exceptionally highly. Having strong leadership and a wealth of experience is undoubtedly valuable, but the Twins have taken it a bit too far at times. It seems that every season, there are at least a few veterans who receive opportunities beyond what they’ve earned through their performance. These occasions often come at the expense of younger players with more hypothetical upside, or just wind up feeling like poor uses of roster spots. 

To be clear, there’s nothing wrong with giving France an opportunity. The problem is in the Twins' history of handling these types of players. There is little evidence of this regime being able to have a quick hook when it comes to poor-performing veterans. In France’s case, it sounds like he’s already been awarded a significant role with the team, despite being two full seasons removed from being an impact player. Miranda, admittedly, doesn't have a wealth of experience playing first base. Still, many defensive metrics indicate that France is a worse defender.

The Twins must turn a new leaf and be well prepared to make a difficult decision if France isn’t right to begin the season. His experience and the team’s lack of a well-prepared alternative would make it difficult for them. Getting poor offensive and defensive output at first base for a significant chunk of the season would simply be too damaging to a roster that didn’t have the capital to make major additions elsewhere this winter. 

We do have to wonder, too, whether this amounts to an important schism between Baldelli and the front office. There's no way for an executive to more clearly send the message that a player is fungible than by signing them to a rare, uniquely low-ceiling and team-friendly contract. For Baldelli to signal an expectation of plugging in such a player every day creates some unavoidable cognitive dissonance. How much of this problem, over the years, has been about the front office—and how much has been Baldelli cleaving too tightly to veterans, perhaps using his own influence to fight off Falvey's efforts to move out non-producers? Is this a source of real or potential friction between the skipper and his bosses?

Hopefully, France will have a resurgent season, and the Twins' belief in him will be justified. If that isn’t the case, the team needs to do what they’ve struggled to do in the past and not let their miscalculation cost them too significantly. Whether that comes down to the manager or the front office, however, is hard to discern—and that makes it hard to feel much confidence that they'll break their pattern if things go poorly.

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[Cory Engelhardt]

I don’t understand the hand-wringing on this when it relates to both Miranda and to Julien: neither of them have showed that they can be healthy and productive for even 3/4th of a season before. Hopefully they can get to that point, and if that’s the case that’s a good thing.

France isn’t the guy I was hoping for this offseason either, but if he is over his heel injury, there is a chance he can get back to 2021-2022 levels right? If not, there truly isn’t a loss here unless Keaschall or Rodriguez are blocked, which I don’t see happening

[Gamblerssoftball]

It seems to me that the Twins believe that his heel injury is completely behind him, and his approach at the plate will be much improved as well. He has talked about his simplified attitude about hitting, which sounds refreshing to me. Sometimes too many voices crowd out your own. 

I have fairly high hopes...

[GNess]

France will likely improve if healthy from last year's injury plagued season for him.

I get the anxiety about Rocco's clinging to veterans even poor performing ones. If France is over used and under performing it still won't be an absolute disaster - having Correa out again for a long stretch or Royce Lewis playing in 2025 like he did the last two months of 2024 season - now those are examples of absolute disasters.

I like Miranda a lot, but he has much to prove and there are DH at-bats and some turns at 3B and 1B if he is hitting - whi.ch I think he will.

Julien in my mind has much still to prove, and may not even open the season with the Twins.

[nicksaviking]

50 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I don’t understand the hand-wringing on this when it relates to both Miranda and to Julien: neither of them have showed that they can be healthy and productive for even 3/4th of a season before. Hopefully they can get to that point, and if that’s the case that’s a good thing.

France isn’t the guy I was hoping for this offseason either, but if he is over his heel injury, there is a chance he can get back to 2021-2022 levels right? If not, there truly isn’t a loss here unless Keaschall or Rodriguez are blocked, which I don’t see happening

Ok, but why would you give France a job before Miranda?

The thesis of the article was clear, the hand wringing is due to this front office's?? managers??? extreme and irrational aversion to pulling the plug in a timely manner on poorly performing veterans.

[EPEZRider]

Hopefully, he doesn't turn out to be Manuel Margot 2.0.

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Ok, but why would you give France a job before Miranda?

The thesis of the article was clear, the hand wringing is due to this front office's?? managers??? extreme and irrational aversion to pulling the plug in a timely manner on poorly performing veterans.

Because Miranda hasn’t ever shown he can hold up for a full season and be productive? Plus he is only 3 years younger than France.

If Miranda can show he can be productive there is a place for him. Hopefully he goes out and proves it

[Wizard11]

Seems like it might be worth letting the guy take a few ST swings before we decide this was a mistake.  27 year old Miranda is not being blocked by anybody but himself.  Same with 26 year old Julien.  The appetite to pick nits and find “possible” fault with the manager and FO on this website is insatiable.  
In fairness to TD readers, it is just another clickbait headline and article.
 

 

[Doctor Gast]

"We do have to wonder, too, whether this amounts to an important schism between Baldelli and the front office. There's no way for an executive to more clearly send the message that a player is fungible than by signing them to a rare, uniquely low-ceiling and team-friendly contract. For Baldelli to signal an expectation of plugging in such a player every day creates some unavoidable cognitive dissonance. How much of this problem, over the years, has been about the front office—and how much has been Baldelli cleaving too tightly to veterans, perhaps using his own influence to fight off Falvey's efforts to move out non-producers? Is this a source of real or potential friction between the skipper and his bosses?"

I don't think there is any schism. For years Falvey makes these deals & Baldelli showcases them. From Happ to Gallo to Margot. These have been a few failures that Baldelli tries to showcase. I've been against all of them from the beginning. I could be wrong about Falvey but my gut feeling tells me otherwise. In France's case, I hope he does work out & help at DH & secondary 1Bman. But making him sole 1Bman is going way too far. France had his time at 1Bman & he's been bad. It's time for Baldelli to do the best for the team & let Miranda finally get the chance to get better at 1B & stay healthy. It's time to put our own players ahead these outhouse veterans instead of these other guys chance after chance after chance & not our own guys. If you want to produce good chemistry among our capable guys you give them every opportunity. Competition is fine but naming France as the sole 1Bman doesn't sound like competition to me. It sounds like the same old, same old.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

5 minutes ago, Wizard11 said:

Seems like it might be worth letting the guy take a few ST swings before we decide this was a mistake.  27 year old Miranda is not being blocked by anybody but himself.  Same with 26 year old Julien.  The appetite to pick nits and find “possible” fault with the manager and FO on this website is insatiable.  
In fairness to TD readers, it is just another clickbait headline and article.
 

 

Disagreed, this team has a long history of hanging on to washed vets far too long.

agreed, better to wait for results before declaring failure. I hope France is a 3 fWAR player, but I am skeptical and fear a repeat of Margot and Gallo

[silverslugger]

As someone who spent the better part of my childhood in the Great White North, I have only one word to say about this...Uff Da!

Okay, perhaps more.  Why does it seem the longer he's around the more Derek Falvey runs the club just like Terry Ryan.  Gotta Love us some washed up veterans.

[Otwins]

The only risk in this deal that I see is if Headrick turns out to be a useful pitcher

Quote

 

 

[Post-Concussive Blues]

We’ll all be laughing at this when France wins MVP and we issue a qualifying offer!

[mnfireman]

Very easy for the team to write off/walk away from a $1 MM contract if it comes down to it, let's hope they don't wreck the season before doing so.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Because Miranda hasn’t ever shown he can hold up for a full season and be productive? Plus he is only 3 years younger than France.

If Miranda can show he can be productive there is a place for him. Hopefully he goes out and proves it

But Miranda has been more productive more recently than France. It should be the other way around. If France can show he can be productive, there could be a place for him. 

This is the struggle with this front office and manager; they look at a Miranda and think that he hasn't proven enough to earn a job, but then they go and sign a vet who also hasn't proven enough recently that he deserves a job. For some reason they seem to think the number of birthdays you've had is meaningful counting stat.

[Cory Engelhardt]

2 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

But Miranda has been more productive more recently than France. It should be the other way around. If France can show he can be productive, there could be a place for him. 

This is the struggle with this front office and manager; they look at a Miranda and think that he hasn't proven enough to earn a job, but then they go and sign a vet who also hasn't proven enough recently that he deserves a job. For some reason they seem to think the number of birthdays you've had is meaningful counting stat.

Miranda from July on last year was really bad though right, just like France was. From July 10th through the end of the season, Miranda’s wRC + was 47, France was 75. And there is a real scenario where neither are on the team in June or July of this year:

Im hopeful they both can perform: we will see

[Wizard11]

5 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

But Miranda has been more productive more recently than France. It should be the other way around. If France can show he can be productive, there could be a place for him. 

This is the struggle with this front office and manager; they look at a Miranda and think that he hasn't proven enough to earn a job, but then they go and sign a vet who also hasn't proven enough recently that he deserves a job. For some reason they seem to think the number of birthdays you've had is meaningful counting stat.

There is no conflict here between Miranda (DH) and France (1B).  There could be a Bader/Miranda conflict if Baldelli decides Bader is his LF and Larnach is the DH.  Similarly with Julien the only likely person that can block him from the roster is Brooks Lee or perhaps Martin.  Only 2 of those 3 make the roster.  

[Wizard11]

25 minutes ago, Otwins said:

The only risk in this deal that I see is if Headrick turns out to be a useful pitcher

 

Exactly.  This may be the regrettable part of signing France.  

[stringer bell]

People on the team will get plenty of at-bats. With Rocco, everybody plays, so it's not like Miranda won't get a chance. When Miranda was hitting he was in the lineup almost every day. If he is as hot as he was last year, he'll play. 

On the flip side, I do fear the slack allowed to France will be substantial and I'm not convinced he will miraculously revert to 2022.  I'm not much of a fan of a one-tool player and he's slow and not a skillful fielder.

[Vanimal46]

France was immediately put on the 40 man even with the structure of the contract. Tells me all I need to know. The FO is intending on him making the opening day roster. 

[Twins_Fan_For_Life]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Miranda from July on last year was really bad though right, just like France was.

Injuries suck.

[DocBauer]

You know, it's one thing to bring in a guy you hope will be healthy, rebound, and be the guy he was 2 years ago after a pair of medioce seasons. But it's another thing to declare that same guy...more or less ignored by the other 29 teams...a full time starter from day ONE.

This just makes no sense to me at all. The only thing that should have been said would be something along the lines of "we think he's healthy and looks good. He's going to have every opportunity to compete for a spot on our team and hopefully be a productive member." And that's basically it. Period.

 

 

[bean5302]

6 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I don’t understand the hand-wringing on this when it relates to both Miranda and to Julien: neither of them have showed that they can be healthy and productive for even 3/4th of a season before. Hopefully they can get to that point, and if that’s the case that’s a good thing.

France isn’t the guy I was hoping for this offseason either, but if he is over his heel injury, there is a chance he can get back to 2021-2022 levels right? If not, there truly isn’t a loss here unless Keaschall or Rodriguez are blocked, which I don’t see happening

Btw, Miranda has two 3/4 seasons (125 G and 121 G) and he hit .268/.325/.426 OPS .751 wRC+ 116 in the first one and .284/.322/.441 OPS .763 wRC+ 115 in the second one.

I see you changed the goalposts to needing a full season. Well, hate to break this to you, but Rocco "Broken Macro" Baldelli platoons his guys. Getting to a "full season" under Baldelli is nearly impossible.

 

[dxpavelka]

Actually if this guys does anything close to what Solano & Santana have done the last two years I'll be ecstatic.  If there'd been indication that Miranda might have done that, we wouldn't be here.  Same goes for the last two years.

 

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

France was immediately put on the 40 man even with the structure of the contract. Tells me all I need to know. The FO is intending on him making the opening day roster. 

I fear that's the plan no matter what he does in spring training.  Good or bad he is definitely getting a head start in the race to see who starts at 1B.

[Pdxtwins]

It's still only 1 mill and it's not guaranteed until he makes the team.  It's the definition of little or no risk. 

If he finds his swing this spring and makes the team it's a bonus.  If not I'm pretty sure this current ownership will gladly keep that 1 million in their pocket.  

 

There are many more things to get angry about than France basically being invited to spring training.  

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, Twins_Fan_For_Life said:

Injuries suck.

What injury did he have? A low back strain for 10 days? 

[Vanimal46]

3 minutes ago, Pdxtwins said:

It's still only 1 mill and it's not guaranteed until he makes the team.  It's the definition of little or no risk. 

Then why is he on the 40 man roster today? The definition of little to no risk is him not being on the 40 man roster until he actually earns it in spring training. 

[David HK]

Yes.

[Pdxtwins]

2 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Then why is he on the 40 man roster today? The definition of little to no risk is him not being on the 40 man roster until he actually earns it in spring training. 

Whose spot is he taking on the 40 man roster?