Front Office Moves Are Hampering Rocco Baldelli's Preferred Strategy. Good?

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins manager famously liked to go to his bench early and often for subs last year. Ultimately it's hard to say the tendency proved effective. This season, the front office seems to be pushing Rocco in a different direction based on the roster setup.

Image courtesy of Eric Canha-Imagn Images

It was fairly clear going into the 2024 season what Rocco Baldelli and the Twins were going to do: play matchups to the extreme, with mid-game substitutions intended to ambush opponents and capitalize on key moments.

The front office collectively spent about $10 million of its limited funds last year on two bench players — Kyle Farmer and Manuel Margot — who were not really capable of playing shortstop or center field. The idea was that these veteran right-handed bats could be defensively useful enough while serving as frequent pinch-hitting and platooning options in a lineup featuring numerous lefty hitters.

We saw how it went. Twins pinch-hitters slashed .186/.268/.273 in a league-leading 183 plate appearances. Margot was historically inept, posting an 0-for-30 egg in his 35 pinch-hitting appearances. Beyond the shoddy production Minnesota got from their hitting subs, the other ramification was that the team's best bats were often unavailable in crucial late-game spots. 

The logic behind Baldelli's philosophy made sense — platoon advantages are undeniably legitimate — but in practice it just didn't play. This owed partially to sample-size luck, partially to the quality of the players being subbed, and partially to the pinch-hitting penalty, which seemed to be drastically under-weighed.

During his appearance on-stage at the Twins Daily Winter Meltdown last month, TV announcer Cory Provus offered up some light but fair criticism of Baldelli's steadfast commitment to this subbing strategy in 2024, noting that it made the team predictable and "easy to manage against." I'm guessing even Rocco would agree with this assessment to some degree in hindsight. Provus suggested that it's one fundamental aspect of the Twins' approach he expects to change this year. Indeed, the front office appears to be giving their manager little choice in the matter.

Farmer and Margot exited via free agency and haven't been functionally replaced. The Twins signed a defensive specialist as their fourth outfielder in Harrison Bader, and they are reportedly targeting a glove-first veteran infielder to round out their infield mix. Other candidates for bench spots right now would appear to include Christian Vázquez, Mickey Gasper, Austin Martin and DaShawn Keirsey. 

Yes, on some days you'll have someone like like Trevor Larnach or Willi Castro or Edouard Julien available on the bench, but the Twins basically have one starting lineup's worth of good hitters on the 40-man roster. Unless additions are coming or prospects rise fast, Baldelli isn't going to be able to often summon an offensive threat in mid-game situations. Even Bader, who is ostensibly a good fit because he hits right-handed, is not someone I'd be inclined to pinch-hit for the likes of Larnach or Matt Wallner against a lefty unless it was a specifically terrible match-up.

One could argue this is a good thing, and many fans probably will view it as such. I myself would love to see key hitters like Larnach and Wallner get more chances to survive a tough sixth-inning AB so they can remain in the lineup when a righty reliever swings around three innings later. We're trending in that direction.

But this conversation does underscore the lack of depth present in Minnesota's offensive mix here at the doorstep of spring training. The sparsity of proven bats behind their planned starters means that even a few injuries could force the Twins into starting subpar hitters regularly. Already we're seeing talk of Castro starting at first base, which is a grim omen. 

Rejoice, frustrated Twins fans: It doesn't look like Rocco Baldelli will be equipped for nearly as many mid-game lineup subs this year. But be careful what you wish for.

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[thelanges5]

 

[LastOnePicked]

I can't speak for others, but I'll "rejoice" when this organization finally turns the page from a manager whose output is so easily guessed and gamed by the competition. It was refreshing to hear this honest, pointed critique from Provus. 

[rv78]

Rocco may not have as many options this year but that doesn't mean he'll abandoned the idea or even tone it back a little. Mentally he doesn't have what it takes to be a Manager. Anyone who can't figure out how to avoid scheduled off-days for Correa and Buxton when they fall on the same day by simply adjusting one of them 1 day in either direction, when he is the one who sets the schedule, doesn't seem to be very intelligent. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

I hope this plan helps get the core players to the end of season and into the playoffs as healthy as possible.

I also have to imagine there is a plan in place to allow for Keaschall, Rodriguez and eventually Jenkins up here when they are ready to produce. 

[Mark G]

It may turn out that the final roster will put these limitations on how Rocco maneuvers through the game, but was it a thought process?  Or did it just fall that way because they waited so long and were left with who they finally signed?  Somehow I can't help but feel it was the latter.  

[Road trip]

I'll be pleasantly surprised if Bader isn't pinch-hitting for Wallner/Larnach whenever a lefty reliever arrives mid-game...  and I'll believe it when I see it.  

[chpettit19]

I don't get the same read on things. I think having only 2 for sure lefties on the team means we're going to see even more platooning of those guys. If they carry 3 (Julien most likely) they'll still have a righty (or switch hitter) to pair with each and every one of them for every AB. Now if/when Emma pushes his way into the lineup, and the other 3 are all still healthy and playing, then Rocco won't be able to platoon them all. But I'll believe Rocco isn't going to platoon and pinch hit the lineup to death when I see it. Bader doesn't have to be great against lefties, just perceived to be better than Larnach or Wallner against them. 

In this interview, at the 28:03 mark, Rocco is asked about lefty/righty matchups in pinch hitting situations. You guys can all listen and draw your own conclusions, but I'm not hearing a manager who's planning to change his approach drastically. I'll believe he's backed off the platooning and pinch hitting in a meaningful way when I see it.

 

[Blyleven2011]

You can wish in one hand and c**p in the other and see which one weighs  more ,..

Speaking of weighing more , Rocco and FO has weighted down the twins players , our prospects are showing that once they reach the MLB level ...

Arraez was the last player to run with the opportunity and he wasn't even a prospect on the radar , Lewis has shown flashes in 3 injury filled seasons , but his collapse last season in second half for now has fans wondering what to expect ...

[Twins GFP]

I am sure I will get hammered for this, but I have a few questions:

Why is everyone so sure that the rotational philosophy is 100% Baldelli, or that it is his preferred method?  The Twins have been hammered by injuries the past few years to go with some pretty poor performances from players expected to more strongly contribute... sometimes you need to play the hand you are dealt.

Many times making the right decision doesn't result in a positive consequence.  There is a thought process that the middle innings are just as important as the end innings.  This is why the Save statistic is pretty worthless.  What is more important/valuable: coming in to pitch with the bases loaded and 1 out in the 7th up by 1, or coming in to start a 9th inning up by 1?  The same argument can be made for positional changes.

That being said, I would also like to see if the Wallner/Larnach/Miranda group can learn to improve their splits and become better hitters.  I also thought that continuing to run Margot out there as a PH did nothing for his confidence.  Could things be done better?  Every team would tell you yes.  I am sure the inconsistencies of many of the younger position players is not helping Baldelli's confidence in extending some rope to the younger players.

[jmlease1]

I think the front office and manager are in lockstep about some of these overarching in-game strategies for lineups; assigning Rocco the blame for what was an organizational decision to try and jump on teams and generate a big inning earlier in the game through a platoon advantage seems silly to me. That said, I thought it was vastly over-utilized last season, so moving on from it seems to be a benefit to me. The concept wasn't terrible, but a) was overused, and b) didn't have effective enough RH hitters to execute it.

(also? I think the Twins expected Margot to be able to play CF as he had in the past, and Farmer not being able to play SS as a bench player wasn't necessarily a problem; it's not like we were looking to sub for Correa when he was playing? the problem was neither of them hit, and Margot couldn't play defense worth a damn for the first time in his career.)

I'd like Wallner and Larnach to get more opportunities to survive against LHP in the middle innings so they're available to hit in close and late situations against RHP. I think the bench is constructed more now to have speed/defense guys coming in late to hold leads rather than try to get them in the first place.

I don't think this is a front office strategy designed to limit Rocco; I think this is collective action for a different direction based on the results of last season and the limits of the payroll and roster. Not for one second do I think that the front office makes moves designed to change Rocco's in-game strategy, because they decide these together. (It's why the "Fire Rocco!" crowd will be utterly disappointed with the next manager for as long as this front office team is in place...if you want drastic changes to the on-field decision-making, you'll need to clean house in the front office too)

[Fatbat]

Wasn’t Bader signed for 2 reasons? Plus defense and right handed bat to add platooning and pinch hitting to the roster?  Sounds like Falvey gave Rocco half of what he has been asking for in the defense/lineup end. Add in a LH RP and Rocco has 2/3 of his roster needs filled. 

[Fatbat]

30 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I think the front office and manager are in lockstep about some of these overarching in-game strategies for lineups; assigning Rocco the blame for what was an organizational decision to try and jump on teams and generate a big inning earlier in the game through a platoon advantage seems silly to me. That said, I thought it was vastly over-utilized last season, so moving on from it seems to be a benefit to me. The concept wasn't terrible, but a) was overused, and b) didn't have effective enough RH hitters to execute it.

(also? I think the Twins expected Margot to be able to play CF as he had in the past, and Farmer not being able to play SS as a bench player wasn't necessarily a problem; it's not like we were looking to sub for Correa when he was playing? the problem was neither of them hit, and Margot couldn't play defense worth a damn for the first time in his career.)

I'd like Wallner and Larnach to get more opportunities to survive against LHP in the middle innings so they're available to hit in close and late situations against RHP. I think the bench is constructed more now to have speed/defense guys coming in late to hold leads rather than try to get them in the first place.

I don't think this is a front office strategy designed to limit Rocco; I think this is collective action for a different direction based on the results of last season and the limits of the payroll and roster. Not for one second do I think that the front office makes moves designed to change Rocco's in-game strategy, because they decide these together. (It's why the "Fire Rocco!" crowd will be utterly disappointed with the next manager for as long as this front office team is in place...if you want drastic changes to the on-field decision-making, you'll need to clean house in the front office too)

Not to hijack the thread but if the new owner decides to clean house of a FO that has a top 3 bullpen and top 5 Farm system, what are we going to get with a new front office? 

[USAFChief]

Honestly, the lengths some people will travel to make excuses for Baldelli is nauseating. 

 

The front office isn't pinch hitting Manny Margot for the team's best hitter in the 6th inning. That's 100 percent the manager. One hundred percent. 

Not to mention Nelson's OP claims the front office has had to assemble a roster designed to PREVENT their manager from managing. 

Which, for the record doesn't seem likely. Rocco's gonna Rocco. I guarantee you'll see  Bader PHing for Wallner and/or Larnach. Early.

 

 

[nicksaviking]

So basically it's; 'You want to over-platoon with below average right handed hitters?'

'I know how to fix that and make the team better, I'm going to give you even WORSE right handed hitters!'

 

[Parfigliano]

53 minutes ago, Mark G said:

It may turn out that the final roster will put these limitations on how Rocco maneuvers through the game, but was it a thought process?  Or did it just fall that way because they waited so long and were left with who they finally signed?  Somehow I can't help but feel it was the latter.  

It was.  Doesn't matter though because Rocco will still PH in the 4-5 inning seeking his ambush matchup.  It wii fail and come back to bite in the 8-9 inning.

It's his one trick and other teams see it coming like thunderclouds on the horizon.

[NYCTK]

46 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

This is why the Save statistic is pretty worthless.

Anyone still looking at Saves in the age of WPA and the derivatives Shutdowns/Meltdowns is a dinosaur. 

But you pose good questions. Whose decision was it to keep Margot? Was it the Front Office? But Rocco kept playing him, so was it his? Were both of them incompetent and to blame? We'll never know. 

[Parfigliano]

5 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Anyone still looking at Saves in the age of WPA and the derivatives Shutdowns/Meltdowns is a dinosaur. 

But you pose good questions. Whose decision was it to keep Margot? Was it the Front Office? But Rocco kept playing him, so was it his? Were both of them incompetent and to blame? We'll never know. 

The "save" is a largely meaningless stat pimped by agents to get their client more money.

[NYCTK]

1 minute ago, Parfigliano said:

The "save" is a largely meaningless stat pimped by agents to get their client more money.

And it works. Duran got $1.8M more than Jax. 

[PatPfund]

Well, hopefully there is more of a concerted strategy between the manager and FO on in-game strategy, because giving him poor options doesn't really stop Rocco from doing the splits thing. (I remember listening to a KC broadcast last year, and they were chortling about Rocco loading up on opposite-sided hitting against a starter who had reverse splits.)

Also, I wouldn't put Martin in the "shown no ability" hitting category; he had a rookie season hitting .253 with a decent eye and an 89 OPS+ in scattered playing time. That is a decent start; it is one of the reason I hate the Bader move (his veteran status means he will get lots of time in the lineup when healthy, and the gross overpay on money make him difficult to cut or trade). Martin bats RH, is faster than Bader and has more upside offensively, would be much better defensively if he could put focus on OF, and gives more roster/payroll flexibility if Rodriguez pushes for MLB time.

[Doctor Gast]

40 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I think the front office and manager are in lockstep about some of these overarching in-game strategies for lineups; assigning Rocco the blame for what was an organizational decision to try and jump on teams and generate a big inning earlier in the game through a platoon advantage seems silly to me. That said, I thought it was vastly over-utilized last season, so moving on from it seems to be a benefit to me. The concept wasn't terrible, but a) was overused, and b) didn't have effective enough RH hitters to execute it.

(also? I think the Twins expected Margot to be able to play CF as he had in the past, and Farmer not being able to play SS as a bench player wasn't necessarily a problem; it's not like we were looking to sub for Correa when he was playing? the problem was neither of them hit, and Margot couldn't play defense worth a damn for the first time in his career.)

I'd like Wallner and Larnach to get more opportunities to survive against LHP in the middle innings so they're available to hit in close and late situations against RHP. I think the bench is constructed more now to have speed/defense guys coming in late to hold leads rather than try to get them in the first place.

I don't think this is a front office strategy designed to limit Rocco; I think this is collective action for a different direction based on the results of last season and the limits of the payroll and roster. Not for one second do I think that the front office makes moves designed to change Rocco's in-game strategy, because they decide these together. (It's why the "Fire Rocco!" crowd will be utterly disappointed with the next manager for as long as this front office team is in place...if you want drastic changes to the on-field decision-making, you'll need to clean house in the front office too)

Who's idea was it to pinch hit with Margot? Was it Rocco or Falvey? IMO it was Falvey as always wanting to showcase his brilliant acquisitions. Rocco is one of Falvey's yes-men. This year is no different than last year where Desclavani was going make a huge impact in the rotation, Paddack was taking Gray's place & pitch 140+ innings. And Margot was to be our great defense replacement for Buck & RH OF bat to platoon & pitch hit for Larnach & Wallner. I don't know how acquiring Bader changes anything. Instead of expensive Margot going to be our great defensive Buxton replacement & RH OF bat to platoon & PH for Larnach & Wallner, it's now expensive Bader. Falvey will tell Baldelli to bat Bader as much as possible against LHPs & Rocco will do it.

[Mark G]

6 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

And it works. Duran got $1.8M more than Jax. 

It is working in more ways than that.  It is the latest craze in electing relievers to the HOF as well.  😏

[Jocko87]

I think Bader will play much more than we are hearing, for several reasons. Most days he's one ot the top 9 hitters even if it's 8 or 9.  He'll already be in a lot of starting lineups with Larnach and Waller with the DH rotation. The platoon opportunities are dramatically decreased if he's basically a starter. Should Larnach play any first base he's a full time player.

He's well ahead of Castro in the outfield rotation by my figuring. 

[Doctor Gast]

18 minutes ago, PatPfund said:

Well, hopefully there is more of a concerted strategy between the manager and FO on in-game strategy, because giving him poor options doesn't really stop Rocco from doing the splits thing. (I remember listening to a KC broadcast last year, and they were chortling about Rocco loading up on opposite-sided hitting against a starter who had reverse splits.)

Also, I wouldn't put Martin in the "shown no ability" hitting category; he had a rookie season hitting .253 with a decent eye and an 89 OPS+ in scattered playing time. That is a decent start; it is one of the reason I hate the Bader move (his veteran status means he will get lots of time in the lineup when healthy, and the gross overpay on money make him difficult to cut or trade). Martin bats RH, is faster than Bader and has more upside offensively, would be much better defensively if he could put focus on OF, and gives more roster/payroll flexibility if Rodriguez pushes for MLB time.

MN hasn't had a decent lead-off hitter for a long time. You could argue that Arraez was pretty good since he had high OBPs which I agree but what separates Martin from Arraez is his speed & ability to take & steal an extra base & intimidate pitchers to make mistakes to following batters or walks that spark rallies. Martin has always had a high OBP, he had high OPS in college & AFL it doesn't matter much between RHPs or LHPs so he could start every day. So many players with higher OPS often hit a bunch of solo HRs when we don't need them & normally SO when we do. So OPS doesn't tell the whole story also OPS doesn't take into consideration stolen or taken extra bases that is the same thing as hitting a double or triple or harassing a pitcher when the game is on the line. Martin's stats will improve with time & frequency on the field. Seems like many look for reasons to keep Martin off the field but for the Twins to really be competitive they need to take advantage of Martin's abilities & find reasons to keep him on the field. I'm not advocating for him to spend a lot of time in CF.

[D.C Twins]

2 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

I can't speak for others, but I'll "rejoice" when this organization finally turns the page from a manager whose output is so easily guessed and gamed by the competition. It was refreshing to hear this honest, pointed critique from Provus. 

this....This....aaaaaaaaaaaaand......THIS!

[silverslugger]

Well, we are talking about Rocco's ability to in-game manage, or lack thereof.  Why does this seem so obvious to all of us and so, not obvious, to the front office?  I guess we should just stick to the subject, but don't even get me started on the lack of fundamentals this team has shown since Rocco's arrival.

[Doc Lenz]

2 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

I can't speak for others, but I'll "rejoice" when this organization finally turns the page from a manager whose output is so easily guessed and gamed by the competition. It was refreshing to hear this honest, pointed critique from Provus. 

I would add that almost if not all Managers have a regular batting order. Helps guys get comfortable. Not Rocco…different almost every day.

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, Doc Lenz said:

I would add that almost if not all Managers have a regular batting order. Helps guys get comfortable. Not Rocco…different almost every day.

You think a veteran can't hit the same if he bats fifth or sixth in the order? Based on what?

[mikelink45]

I keep asking what the Bench coach and assistant bench coach are doing?  Are they just there to nod in agreement with Rocco?  Why are they there?  Did Casey Stengel or Walt Alston have bench coaches?

[D.C Twins]

I've been shocked for 2 years running that Rocco still has a job....

Thought experiment: Do you think Rocco will ever manage for another team again?  

Hard no for me... so why do the Twins cling to a negative WAR manager like he is a prize.