Front Office Moves Are Hampering Rocco Baldelli's Preferred Strategy. Good?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

30 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Is it fair to say that 356 times, the Twins did their best to put batters into a favorable matchup (more often than not), and time after time those batters failed to come through?

They didn’t pinch hit 356 times in a 162 game season, on average a pinch hitter got 1.5+ plate appearances. The PH appearances raised the bar a little bit, but the subsequent plate appearances lowered it a lot.

[ashbury]

On 2/10/2025 at 2:18 PM, Richie the Rally Goat said:

They didn’t pinch hit 356 times in a 162 game season, on average a pinch hitter got 2+ plate appearances. The PH appearances raised the bar a little bit, but the subsequent plate appearances lowered it a lot.

It can't have been an overwhelming factor, out of 6123 PA during the season, because they had the fewest unfavorable L/L matchups in the majors, and well below average rates of unfavorable R/R matchups.

Meanwhile the failures of multiple L/R matchups across 2000+ PA look pretty overwhelming to me.

[sweetmusicviola16]

6 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Who's idea was it to pinch hit with Margot? Was it Rocco or Falvey? IMO it was Falvey as always wanting to showcase his brilliant acquisitions. Rocco is one of Falvey's yes-men. This year is no different than last year where Desclavani was going make a huge impact in the rotation, Paddack was taking Gray's place & pitch 140+ innings. And Margot was to be our great defense replacement for Buck & RH OF bat to platoon & pitch hit for Larnach & Wallner. I don't know how acquiring Bader changes anything. Instead of expensive Margot going to be our great defensive Buxton replacement & RH OF bat to platoon & PH for Larnach & Wallner, it's now expensive Bader. Falvey will tell Baldelli to bat Bader as much as possible against LHPs & Rocco will do it.

What difference is there between Bader and "the expensive Margot?" The expensive Margot was cheaper than Bader. lol

[Richie the Rally Goat]

43 minutes ago, ashbury said:

It's can't have been an overwhelming factor, out of 6123 PA during the season, because they had the fewest unfavorable L/L matchups in the majors, and well below average rates of unfavorable R/R matchups.

Meanwhile the failures of multiple L/R matchups across 2000+ PA look pretty overwhelming to me.

It was consequential when you brought it up, but when the same data sliced differently disputes your narrative it doesn’t?

You’re not wrong, it’s 350 plate appearances, or, if the averages hold up, the Twins avoided about 75 sub optimal matchups, but subbed into just as many.
 

the easy cherry to pick here is Manny Margot, he led the team with 30 pinch hit appearances but had 75 plate appearances (also team lead) as a substitute for a .349 OPS.

unfortunately the split doesn’t have WPA, it would be helpful to know how much the futility mattered when Manny came to bat as a substitute.

[Blyleven2011]

5 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

I've been shocked for 2 years running that Rocco still has a job....

Thought experiment: Do you think Rocco will ever manage for another team again?  

Hard no for me... so why do the Twins cling to a negative WAR manager like he is a prize. 

Because he is a yes man , the front office should stay out of the game and let a manager manage his own game  , but Rocco hired on knowing he had to be a follower of FO  ....

The blame is on both of them and their philosophy of the game today  , sure wish they implement some old methods of the game , and by the way , resting players regularly is not helping our players stay healthy ...

If you want energy , you have to burn energy to make energy but today's dollars zap the energy out of today's players  , if only they had a passion for the game , if you have passion in everything you do , you will succeed in life ...

when i cleaned the barn i didn't like it , but it had to be done  , so i did it knowing my family counted on me and helped put food on the table , i did it with passion and i miss the farm I grew up on ...

It would be nice if the front office  worked with a passion and would communicate truthfully  instead of the mularky they always try to make us fans believe  ...

[Squirrel]

1 hour ago, T.O. said:

Maybe I was trying to be too clever. Often people combat frustration with an attempt at humor. I see Baldelli as the worst part of the Twins organization and their current situation. I don't care about his time as a player. Beyond him not being the best manager I think he is so awful I think he is ruining the game. Not everyone agrees, maybe very few agree. I've read a lot of comments I thought were ridiculous. Many people here are passionate about their beliefs. That's mine. Sometimes if I don't laugh I'll cry.
I do appreciate your comment though.

That’s fine. Many don’t like him, and I’m not suggesting you need to like him. But he was a fine player, so he does have good baseball sense. That doesn’t always translate into being a good manager. Many people here who dislike him as a manager claim he doesn’t know baseball. That’s just not true. There’s a reason that some of the best players of the game don’t always become the best managers of the game. Given the player he was I find some of his managerial decisions even more perplexing. And it’s not because he doesn’t know game. Thats all I’m saying, that I think it’s ridiculous to claim he has no sense of the game.

[Mike Sixel]

28 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

I grew up on the farm too. Miss the community most. I still do farm. But hated milking. That's OK, milking it is now Rocco's job.

What are you saying? 

[stringer bell]

I read the first page of comments and don't have time to read the same thing repeated ad infinitum. I have no problem with Larnach/Wallner not starting when a lefty starts for the opposition. My second thought is that guys like Miranda who have shown that they can hit same-side pitching also shouldn't be hit for. The final thought is that early pinch hitting does take away key moves later and leaves sub-optimal matchups late in games. 

Platoons work if done properly, but the results are on the margins, not a dramatic change, most of the time. Resting a LH hitting starter most or all of the time against a left handed starter provides protection and rest for developing players, but shielding these players so totally is malpractice as a manager. 

I don't complain about lineup changes--the Twins haven't had enough hitters for Baldelli to make slots where hitters would stay and I don't think there are many teams that do. 

[Riverbrian]

10 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Many times making the right decision doesn't result in a positive consequence.  There is a thought process that the middle innings are just as important as the end innings.  This is why the Save statistic is pretty worthless.  What is more important/valuable: coming in to pitch with the bases loaded and 1 out in the 7th up by 1, or coming in to start a 9th inning up by 1?  The same argument can be made for positional changes.

I agree... there are moments in the 5th inning where a pinch hitter makes sense... such as based loaded... up or down by whatever margin. However, IMO... this is not what Rocco was doing. He would simply pinch hit when the lefty came in regardless of the situation. It didn't matter if there were two out and nobody on. The lefthanded hitter was coming out... most of the time. There were a few times that he surprised me. 

However... in response. The middle innings can be critically important but they are typically not as important as the end innings for one simple reason.

The end of the innings are the end of the game. Now or never... do or die... you can't try again next inning.

If you don't score in the 5th... there are 4 more innings to take a shot at it. If you don't score in the 7th... there are 2 more innings to take a shot.

The ninth... that's it. You are out of time. I'd rather have Larnach at the plate than Margot to face Erceg or Clase or whoever Detroit is going to give the ball to in the ninth. 

[Riverbrian]

10 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

It was.  Doesn't matter though because Rocco will still PH in the 4-5 inning seeking his ambush matchup.  It wii fail and come back to bite in the 8-9 inning.

It's his one trick and other teams see it coming like thunderclouds on the horizon.

I've always wondered why Rocco would stack his left handers together. He would frequently put Julien in the 1 spot, Larnach in the 2, Wallner in the 4. For the life of me... I don't understand why he wouldn't space them out 3, 6 and 9. 

It's like he's daring the manager to bring the left hander by lining them up in a row to make it easy for the opposing manager. And when the opposing manager did... He would take them all out and our bench moves were gone by the 6th inning.

If you only have three of them to put in the lineup... Space them out, 1,4,7 in the order or 2,5,8 in the order or 3,69 in the order. That way the left handed weapon deployedment is going to have to face a couple of right handers before getting to the 2nd left hander.

Maybe then we won't lose them all in one fell swoop inning. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

11 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I am sure I will get hammered for this, but I have a few questions:

Why is everyone so sure that the rotational philosophy is 100% Baldelli, or that it is his preferred method?  The Twins have been hammered by injuries the past few years to go with some pretty poor performances from players expected to more strongly contribute... sometimes you need to play the hand you are dealt.

Many times making the right decision doesn't result in a positive consequence.  There is a thought process that the middle innings are just as important as the end innings.  This is why the Save statistic is pretty worthless.  What is more important/valuable: coming in to pitch with the bases loaded and 1 out in the 7th up by 1, or coming in to start a 9th inning up by 1?  The same argument can be made for positional changes.

That being said, I would also like to see if the Wallner/Larnach/Miranda group can learn to improve their splits and become better hitters.  I also thought that continuing to run Margot out there as a PH did nothing for his confidence.  Could things be done better?  Every team would tell you yes.  I am sure the inconsistencies of many of the younger position players is not helping Baldelli's confidence in extending some rope to the younger players.

Hammer time. Rocco did not have to pinch hit Margot over and over and over and over, 30 times. That is not playing he hand he was dealt. It is doing the same unsuccessful thing over and over and expecting a different result due to the law of averages saying someday Margot will get a hit. That's similar to Rocco putting me in to hit 30 times because the law of averages says I'm  bound to get a hit eventually.  Mark Twain said: "Facts are stubborn, but statistics are more pliable." 

[Riverbrian]

17 hours ago, ashbury said:

This is going to be unpopular.  But basic stats show that the platooning worked.  The key players failed.

b-r.com provides league splits, on which you can drill down to an individual team's splits.  For L/R pitchers and L/R batters there are 4 combinations, and I clicked on each then sorted by Plate Appearances and by OPS.  Here are the Twins' rankings against the rest of the majors:

RPvRB: 2102 PA (24th), OPS .733 (5th)
RPvLB: 2394 PA ( 7th), OPS .716 (17th)
LPvRB: 1433 PA ( 4th), OPS .746 (9th)
LPvLB:  194 PA (30th), OPS .630 (20th)
totals 6123 PA ( 9th), OPS .726 (11th)

Their platooning had them near the bottom of the majors in opportunities with unfavorable matchups, and near the top in the favorable ones.  (These numbers include switch-hitters batting the way they prefer against a given pitcher.)

The lefty hitters were putrid when they faced lefties, but they had the fewest opportunities of any team so it wasn't as much of a burden.  Among righty batters against righties, Buxton and Correa are pretty good hitters. so they weren't part of any platooning which arguably held the PA higher, while Miranda did well too, and the OPS is overall really quite good.

It's the FAVORABLE matchup for the left-handed batters that held the team down.  It was the most frequent matchup and they didn't do much clobberin'.  Sorting by PA, Willi Castro did okay (.733 OPS) for a guy who is here for his versatility on the field and who by rights shouldn't be leading the team in plate appearances period.  Next was Carlos Santana and his OPS was .676 - that's just unplayable at a bat-first position, but they played him anyway (in fairness he was signed as a Plan B).  Larnach was good (.784) but Kepler was frustrating (.672) and again at a bat-first position was objectively unplayable.  Next is Julien, at an even more unplayable .620 and they did finally take steps with him.  Wallner was the only guy who clobbered, .972, in limited playing time at the major league level.  Kiriloff was at .663 and we know he wasn't right physically. Finally is Brooks Lee with .580 in 133 chances from the favorable matchup; I'm all for starting him at St Paul this season and have him work his way back up.

That's a bunch of guys, too many guys, underperforming when put into favorable matchups.  You can't fix that by demoting or cutting them all, though three of the prime offenders are no longer with the team.  It's the number one thing that the new batting coach needs to figure out, among the holdover players.

This is a strategic look.  Getting down to specific tactics such as pinch-hitting isn't covered by this analysis.  And it ignores the perhaps bigger-picture aim of letting left-handed batters get more experience against LHP and (perhaps) improve with time.  But management achieved what they set out to do in-season, and we might be singing a different tune if the lefty batters didn't let them down big time.

Ash... This is the stuff that I come to Twinsdaily for. This is why you are one of the best. Comparing and contrasting with other teams provides points of reference for those inclined. It's valuable stuff and it has my attention. Thank you. 

This may surprise you considering the loudness and consistency of my dissidence on this very subject. Despite my steadfast disapproval of what appears to be a locked in method to the madness, I acknowledge the possibility of it helping a little. I have acknowledged that possibility before and I may acknowledge it again in the future. 

I just happen to believe that the future cost is too expensive for the little that it helps.... if it does help. 

Back to your numbers... I don't dispute them... I can see them on the link that you provided... but I do admit that I don't understand how it's possible that the Twins were ranked 24th RP vs RB nor do I understand 7th RP vs LB.

We were so right handed batters box heavy... it doesn't make sense to me. There were just a couple of times last year that the roster exceeded 3 pure lefties on the 26 man roster. I get that the switch hitters Santana, Castro and Lee) could pull the number to 6 lefties if all were inserted into the lineup. 

The solution though is pretty easy. 13 Switch Hitters. We will lead the league in favorable and unfavorable matchups. 

 

 

[DocBauer]

Here's a couple of truths that a history of MLB numbers indicate are pretty much indefutable,

1] There is a proven metric that i can't recall the name of exactly. It's something like "PH bias" or "PH adjustment" where it's been proven a hitter coming off the bench...despite player reports and I-Pads in the dugouts...that statistically states ANY batter coming in to PH has to have something like 50 points plus immediately removed from their "normal" AVG and OB% ability coming in to the game cold in that moment.

That DOESN'T MEAN there aren't times to PH. It means the law of averages are generally against the PH in question. But said might still be the best option in certain circumstances. 

2] History also shows, in very real numbers, that LH batters, generally, perform at a lower level against LHP. It's an undeniable FACT based on the history of MLB who counts numbers like a kid counts change in a coin jar.

HOWEVER, there is a BIG DIFFERENCE in a LH batter ONLY producing an OPS of say .680 against LHP vs a mediocre RH batter who is a relatively average producer to begin with, much less PH with the aforementioned history of PH losing so much AVG and OPS in that role.

In other words, PH in the 5th inning in a big situation might seem like a good idea...and it can be at times...but it can restrict the opportunities the rest of the game.

PLATOONING here are there is SMART BASEBALL. It's been going on since the game was invented. And it should be embraced. But there's a difference from platooning a single spot or two in your lineup to making it a MANTRA that you build your roster around! ESPECIALLY since 75% of ALL pitchers are not only RH, but many teams don't have but ONE good LHRP, much less TWO.

I have ZERO problem with Rocco putting Bader in the lineup to start a game against a LHP. One of Larnach or Wallner sits, and is available as a weapon later in the game in the 5th or 6th inning to come in. They might not PH successfully, but they're ready for the next opportunity. 

But the idea of a mediocre RH hitter actually starting a bulk of games really depresses me. Bader should be a Buxton fill in, a PR, a late game defensive replacement, and an occasional start against a LHSP. PERIOD!

Again, MOST LH hitters have issues against LHP. But there's a HUGE difference from a low or sub .600 OPS vs a .670-.680 or better OPS. But how in hell do you know if your LH hitters can be "decent" against LHP unless you give them the OPPORTUNITY to do so?

I'm HOPING Rocco understands he has an expensive ROLE PLAYER in Bader...no slight intended...who shouldn't play every day and shouldn't be used AS a role player for defense, speed, and as an occasional starter against LHP.

If he's seen and used more than that, then we have a serious issue in how the team is constructed and how the players are being used. 

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, DocBauer said:

Bader should be a Buxton fill in, a PR, a late game defensive replacement, and an occasional start against a LHSP. PERIOD!

The thing is...that's 100+ games on this team. 

70+ filling in for Buxton 

15+ making starts against LHP while Buxton is healthy 

15+ coming in as defensive replacement, PR and PH in event Larnach and/or Wallner don't show any improvement against LHP 

And that's not even counting any playing time in event Larnach or Wallner are hurt or benched. 

[ashbury]

6 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

It was consequential when you brought it up, but when the same data sliced differently disputes your narrative it doesn’t?

I'm sorry/disappointed you saw my reply in that light.

In that MLB split page, you're right that the Twins had about 100 more PA by their substitutes than an average team.  Their subs managed to compile an OPS very slightly higher than the league as a whole, which mitigates the damage just a little.  But I'm not here to defend the work of the subs, who clearly let the manager down with their performance.

Still, this is to me a second-order effect compared to the field staff trying their best to maximize the favorable L/R matchups, only to be undone by the hitters' ineptitude from the left-hand batter's box.

Do you know the recipe for Elephant-Rabbit Stew?  You take one medium sized elephant, and cut it into bite sized pieces; this will take a couple of weeks.  Then take a medium sized rabbit and also cut it up, which will go much quicker.  Put them in a 500 gallon pot with just enough water to cover the meat.  Let it come to a boil, and then simmer it for approximately 8 days until tender.  Serves 1360.  I've heard that it tastes mostly like elephant. But all people want to talk about is the rabbit.

That's kind of how I'm seeing the article that led off this discussion.

 

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Ash... This is the stuff that I come to Twinsdaily for. This is why you are one of the best. Comparing and contrasting with other teams provides points of reference for those inclined. It's valuable stuff and it has my attention. Thank you. 

This may surprise you considering the loudness and consistency of my dissidence on this very subject. Despite my steadfast disapproval of what appears to be a locked in method to the madness, I acknowledge the possibility of it helping a little. I have acknowledged that possibility before and I may acknowledge it again in the future. 

I just happen to believe that the future cost is too expensive for the little that it helps.... if it does help. 

Back to your numbers... I don't them dispute them... I can see them on the link that you provided... but I do admit that I don't understand how it's possible that the Twins were ranked 24th RP vs RB nor do I understand 7th RP vs LB.

We were so right handed batters box heavy... it doesn't make sense to me. There were just a couple of times last year that the roster exceeded 3 pure lefties on the 26 man roster. I get that the switch hitters Santana, Castro and Lee) could pull the number to 6 lefties if all were inserted into the lineup. 

The solution though is pretty easy. 13 Switch Hitters. We will lead the league in favorable and unfavorable matchups.

Thanks for the kind words.  Terry Ryan seemed to place a really high priority on switch-hitting, and that's something I liked about him.  I'd say the FalVine regime* has carried on in that tradition.  Last season there were 17 Twins batters with significant playing time (Kirilloff at #17 with 178 PA and a steep dropoff to Keirsey at #18 with only 14), and of them, 3 were switch-hitters, which I won't bother to research but will guess to compare pretty favorably to most other teams - our two guys with the most PA were of this persuasion.  4 other batters were pure left-handers.  So that's 10 guys who face RHP from the right-hand batter's box and 7 who face the other way.  (Well, not toward the catcher and some expensive seats down front - you know what I mean.)  If a manager wants to, and pretty clearly Rocco did, he can stack his lineup against righty pitchers - Correa and Buxton and Third Baseman and Catcher Du Jour bat right handed and you could fill the other 5 spots from the other side.  There were times during the season, especially once Lee was called up, he had the means to do it.  And it helps to remember how spread-out the Plate Appearances were across the roster, due to injuries and demotions.  All of this is the long way of saying I find the plate appearance stats I quoted to be pretty plausible.

It's also a long way of saying that roster construction has a whole lot to do with those PA numbers.  Pinch hitting can't be separated from roster construction, as it all comes down to the plan coming into a season.  Rocco has a voice in this planning, even if he doesn't decide and certainly doesn't execute.

Switch hitting is great of course, but is only a means to an end.  The real goal for almost any player who isn't elite but wants to play full time is: do damage against opposite-handed pitchers (.800 OPS?) and be at least playable (.700 OPS?) against same-handed. That's actually a pretty potent player I just described, so it can be shaded downward a little, but not too much.  And a switch-hitter in theory ought not to have any consistent splits anyway.  And that's my complaint about Santana in particular - he's nominally a switch-hitter but his L/R splits are about the same as if he weren't.  He hasn't been effective against RHP in years.   My memory of his acquisition was incorrect - I thought he was intended as Kirilloff's emergency Plan B, but I took a look at Kirilloff's game log and even before he started to show signs of injury he rarely played at 1B.  That making the signing of a glove-first guy at 1B even harder for me to stomach.

I want our pure lefty batters to be good enough to play full time.  Unfortunately, all the small-sample results keep pointing in the same wrong direction, when they face LHP.  Different players have different skill sets.  It's much more plausible to me that a lefty could be simply untrainable against LHP, than the reverse for righties.  That's because of the sheer numbers of L vs R pitchers as the player comes up through the minors - a righty who is unplayable against RHP probably won't make it to the majors, no matter how well he mashes LHP.  (I don't even want to think about Kyle Garlick.)  A lefty hitter could manage to slide by during his formative years, by loading up against RHP since there are so many of them.  It could be that no amount of practice would fix it, for certain individuals.  It's plausible to me, like I said.

That said, I have a lot of confidence in Matt Wallner in particular.  I've previously related the experience at Arizona Fall League with Chief seeing Wallner take one off his chin, courtesy of a LHP of course.  I don't think he lost any teeth, but there was blood, and my assumption was it was the end for his AZFL season.  But just a few days after I left town, Wallner was back in the lineup, and his OPS in the league was above 1.000.  In my book, the guy's got guts - amazing how personal experience at a game will shape one's views.  With guts, he should be able to learn the tricks of the trade to hit LHP.  Wallner's minor league L/R splits were generally reasonable, whereas at the major league level the splits have been beyond anything normally seen.  Kepler's presence on the roster interfered with Wallner's opportunities and kept the sample size small (although I imagine Rocco tried to bias those opportunities away from the toughest LHP), which was a reason I had hoped for a trade-deadline deal to send Max and his expiring contract away.  In 2024 Wallner finally managed to raise his OPS against LHP above .600.  If there's still a little more to his learning curve, he will surpass the threshold of being "playable" versus LHP.  If I were in charge, I'd tell him, "Kepler's gone now, you're my guy in RF.  You start every game unless you tell the trainer you can't go.  Lefties, righties, I don't care.  Go get'um."

Probably I'd do the same for Larnach in LF/DH, though his splits have been as extreme if not more so.  Julien, if he makes the squad, I just dunno, he was just such a mess last year that maybe a little protection will help his morale.  Everything is a case by case situation, when you really come down to it.

 

*I just got done giving the recipe for Elephant-Rabbit Stew in another post.  In retrospect, Falvey-Levine Stew seems to have had approximately the same proportions.

[stringer bell]

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I've always wondered why Rocco would stack his left handers together. He would frequently put Julien in the 1 spot, Larnach in the 2, Wallner in the 4. For the life of me... I don't understand why he wouldn't space them out 3, 6 and 9.  

I think he wanted to use the three batter minimum to his advantage.

[stringer bell]

22 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Thanks for the kind words.  Terry Ryan seemed to place a really high priority on switch-hitting, and that's something I liked about him.  I'd say the FalVine regime* has carried on in that tradition.  Last season there were 17 Twins batters with significant playing time (Kirilloff at #17 with 178 PA and a steep dropoff to Keirsey at #18 with only 14), and of them, 3 were switch-hitters, which I won't bother to research but will guess to compare pretty favorably to most other teams - our two guys with the most PA were of this persuasion.  4 other batters were pure left-handers.  So that's 10 guys who face RHP from the right-hand batter's box and 7 who face the other way.  (Well, not toward the catcher and some expensive seats down front - you know what I mean.)  If a manager wants to, and pretty clearly Rocco did, he can stack his lineup against righty pitchers - Correa and Buxton and Third Baseman and Catcher Du Jour bat right handed and you could fill the other 5 spots from the other side.  There were times during the season, especially once Lee was called up, he had the means to do it.  And it helps to remember how spread-out the Plate Appearances were across the roster, due to injuries and demotions.  All of this is the long way of saying I find the plate appearance stats I quoted to be pretty plausible.

It's also a long way of saying that roster construction has a whole lot to do with those PA numbers.  Pinch hitting can't be separated from roster construction, as it all comes down to the plan coming into a season.  Rocco has a voice in this planning, even if he doesn't decide and certainly doesn't execute.

Switch hitting is great of course, but is only a means to an end.  The real goal for almost any player who isn't elite but wants to play full time is: do damage against opposite-handed pitchers (.800 OPS?) and be at least playable (.700 OPS?) against same-handed. That's actually a pretty potent player I just described, so it can be shaded downward a little, but not too much.  And a switch-hitter in theory ought not to have any consistent splits anyway.  And that's my complaint about Santana in particular - he's nominally a switch-hitter but his L/R splits are about the same as if he weren't.  He hasn't been effective against RHP in years.   My memory of his acquisition was incorrect - I thought he was intended as Kirilloff's emergency Plan B, but I took a look at Kirilloff's game log and even before he started to show signs of injury he rarely played at 1B.  That making the signing of a glove-first guy at 1B even harder for me to stomach.

I want our pure lefty batters to be good enough to play full time.  Unfortunately, all the small-sample results keep pointing in the same wrong direction, when they face LHP.  Different players have different skill sets.  It's much more plausible to me that a lefty could be simply untrainable against LHP, than the reverse for righties.  That's because of the sheer numbers of L vs R pitchers as the player comes up through the minors - a righty who is unplayable against RHP probably won't make it to the majors, no matter how well he mashes LHP.  (I don't even want to think about Kyle Garlick.)  A lefty hitter could manage to slide by during his formative years, by loading up against RHP since there are so many of them.  It could be that no amount of practice would fix it, for certain individuals.  It's plausible to me, like I said.

That said, I have a lot of confidence in Matt Wallner in particular.  I've previously related the experience at Arizona Fall League with Chief seeing Wallner take one off his chin, courtesy of a LHP of course.  I don't think he lost any teeth, but there was blood, and my assumption was it was the end for his AZFL season.  But just a few days after I left town, Wallner was back in the lineup, and his OPS in the league was above 1.000.  In my book, the guy's got guts - amazing how personal experience at a game will shape one's views.  With guts, he should be able to learn the tricks of the trade to hit LHP.  Wallner's minor league L/R splits were generally reasonable, whereas at the major league level the splits have been beyond anything normally seen.  Kepler's presence on the roster interfered with Wallner's opportunities and kept the sample size small (although I imagine Rocco tried to bias those opportunities away from the toughest LHP), which was a reason I had hoped for a trade-deadline deal to send Max and his expiring contract away.  In 2024 Wallner finally managed to raise his OPS against LHP above .600.  If there's still a little more to his learning curve, he will surpass the threshold of being "playable" versus LHP.  If I were in charge, I'd tell him, "Kepler's gone now, you're my guy in RF.  You start every game unless you tell the trainer you can't go.  Lefties, righties, I don't care.  Go get'um."

Probably I'd do the same for Larnach in LF/DH, though his splits have been as extreme if not more so.  Julien, if he makes the squad, I just dunno, he was just such a mess last year that maybe a little protection will help his morale.  Everything is a case by case situation, when you really come down to it.

 

*I just got done giving the recipe for Elephant-Rabbit Stew in another post.  In retrospect, Falvey-Levine Stew seems to have had approximately the same proportions.

Quite a while ago, @Riverbrian started a thread about "five guys" who could be written in ink every day they could run out a ground ball. The Twins haven't had a left hander in that role since probably Arraez, although Kepler played most of the time against lefties coming down the stretch in '23. Having one of the three--Larnach, Wallner, Julien--step up would really help the roster construction and remove a lot of griping about pinch hitting and lineup construction IMHO. 

I believe Brooks Lee can emerge this year as a regular and I have hopes for Wallner also establish himself as an everyday guy. Add in full-time work for Miranda and the Twins have a much more regular lineup and potential for a good offense despite not that much power and a real lack of speed. Ideally, Castro could become a tenth regular, playing a game or two a week at several positions, but not locked in anywhere until the inevitable injuries. 

Currently, I guess I see one of Lee or Julien starting the season in the minors, with Castro the ninth regular, starting mostly at third and left field while Larnach or Lewis is the DH. If Julien is the second baseman, Willi could replace him and move Julien to the DH role. 

[Riverbrian]

5 hours ago, stringer bell said:

I think he wanted to use the three batter minimum to his advantage.

How is it his advantage? Stacking all your pure lefties within 4 spots in the order... draws out the lefthander.

Are you saying it was his advantage to draw out the lefty? 

[Fezig]

18 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

I've been shocked for 2 years running that Rocco still has a job....

Thought experiment: Do you think Rocco will ever manage for another team again?  

Hard no for me... so why do the Twins cling to a negative WAR manager like he is a prize. 

I think Falvey clings to the mgr because if he were to fire him, he'd have to then admit he was wrong in hiring him. Evidently, that would be large of a pill to swallow.  

In regard to managing again...The Dundas Dukes might be looking for a new skipper. 

[Riverbrian]

8 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Quite a while ago, @Riverbrian started a thread about "five guys" who could be written in ink every day they could run out a ground ball. The Twins haven't had a left hander in that role since probably Arraez, although Kepler played most of the time against lefties coming down the stretch in '23. Having one of the three--Larnach, Wallner, Julien--step up would really help the roster construction and remove a lot of griping about pinch hitting and lineup construction IMHO. 

I believe Brooks Lee can emerge this year as a regular and I have hopes for Wallner also establish himself as an everyday guy. Add in full-time work for Miranda and the Twins have a much more regular lineup and potential for a good offense despite not that much power and a real lack of speed. Ideally, Castro could become a tenth regular, playing a game or two a week at several positions, but not locked in anywhere until the inevitable injuries. 

Currently, I guess I see one of Lee or Julien starting the season in the minors, with Castro the ninth regular, starting mostly at third and left field while Larnach or Lewis is the DH. If Julien is the second baseman, Willi could replace him and move Julien to the DH role. 

A left handed hitter can be (actually has to be) one of the 5 guys if they exceed 3 left handers on the roster. Because they can't shield more than 3. 

Kepler was one of the 5 guys because they had 3 other left handed lambs. Kepler fell out of the 5 guys last year when they ran out of pure left handed hitters last year with the Wallner, Julien demotions and Kirilloff injury. We had moments where we were low on pure left handers and that's when Kepler got sucked into the vortex. 

The Vortex? You can't escape the system. Once you pay 10 million dollars for Margot and Farmer to face left handed pitchers. Someone has to sit against left handed pitchers so Margot and Farmer can play against them. Kepler the left hander now has to feed Margot and Farmer because Julien is no longer around to feed them. Once you start this system... you can't get out of it. 

When Kepler finally started to lose AB's against left handers last year... when Kepler finally got exposed to the same fate of Wallner, Larnach, Kirilloff and Julien. At the time of his crash landing into this land of the shielded, Ironically... almost comically... Kepler actually had reverse splits. How about that... Kepler had better numbers against left handed hitters when they finally got yanked from him. That's the lunacy of the strict adherence of this system. 

In 2023... we opened the season with Gallo, Gordon, Larnach and Kepler. Plus we had Kirilloff on the IL for a potential 5 pure lefties... with Wallner and Julien yet to come.

That's why I don't believe the Twins had this philosophy entering 2023. It showed up as a during the season adjustment in 2023... it seemed to arrive with Wallner and Julien. 

Last year for the Twins... Castro and Santana were two of the five guys. Wallner was not. That's another lunacy of this thing. We have found a way to justify Castro leading the team in AB's. We have found a way to make Castro our most important player.

We have found a way to minimize a .900 OPS. 

 

[Riverbrian]

6 hours ago, ashbury said:

*I just got done giving the recipe for Elephant-Rabbit Stew in another post.  In retrospect, Falvey-Levine Stew seems to have had approximately the same proportions.

You know I love parables, metaphors, relatable stories. Elephant-Rabbit Stew is perfect. 

I use the glass of wine is good for you so the front office is drinking two bottles a night. Both work. 

[Riverbrian]

20 hours ago, ashbury said:

RPvRB: 2102 PA (24th), OPS .733 (5th)
RPvLB: 2394 PA ( 7th), OPS .716 (17th)
LPvRB: 1433 PA ( 4th), OPS .746 (9th)
LPvLB:  194 PA (30th), OPS .630 (20th)
totals 6123 PA ( 9th), OPS .726 (11th)

Back to your numbers. 

You are actually supporting a point that I make quite frequently. Others don't seem to understand my point but I'm pretty sure you do. 

When I say... By playing the splits right... we are actually playing them wrong. This is what I'm talking about. 

Our left handed hitters produced a .716 OPS against right handed pitchers. The favorable match up wasn't taken advantage of. We set up the pins and didn't knock them down. By playing the splits right... we are actually playing them wrong. 

There hasn't been much in the rumor mill this off-season but what were the rumors?

Despite the numbers that you post that show our left handed hitters being a problem against right handed pitchers. The rumors this off-season were and are that the Twins are searching for? (Dramatic Music Here) Right Handed This... Right Handed That. Bader predictably signed for 6.5 million to take one of them right handed this or that spots. We will go get another one to play infield. 

They are not going to address the left handed hitters? Your numbers show the need to address left handed hitters. 

Despite Castro being average at best against RHP, Despite Santana being well below average against RHP and the pair of them leading the team in PA's against right handed pitchers... leading the team against all pitching... period. 

Despite Kepler being what Kepler has been for a long long time with no consequence.

Despite Julien unfortunately crashing and burning.

Despite witnessing the end of Kirilloff as we know him. The front office feels fine and is searching for RIGHT HANDED HITTERS! The same thing they were searching for in the 2023-2024 off-season when they kept Farmer and traded for Margot. The template was set and here we go again. The Train just keeps a rollin.  

The two left handed hitters that actually did their job against the 75% of pitching that is right handed... Wallner and Larnach. Those are the two that are being managed consistently away from left handed pitchers, those are the two that are being managed away from being self sufficient, those are the two that are being managed toward requiring a 4 to 6 million dollar player attached to them for the rest of their baseball lives just to take those 25% of AB's away.  

By playing the split right... they are playing it wrong.

Maybe we should add some left handed hitting instead. Maybe we should focus on the 75% instead of the 25%. 

This is all I can see in regards to roster construction. It dominates every facet of our roster construction. Nick Nelson mentioned that Corey Provous said that Baldelli became too predictable. Corey is right... but let me say... the front office has become predictable. Another small potatoes right hander hitter is coming. Bank on it. 

The Twins are going to live or die on this hill. 

[Whitey333]

The Twins play boring and predictable ball under Rocco.  They don't steal,they run the bases like the three stooges, and play very poor defense.  Rovcos platooning and stupidity when resting more than one star player at a time at home especially is aggravating.   Plus it shows lunacy.  I can't think of any other major league team that would hire him to be manager if the Twins let him go.  He brings very little to the table.

[Twinsgypsy]

21 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Not to hijack the thread but if the new owner decides to clean house of a FO that has a top 3 bullpen and top 5 Farm system, what are we going to get with a new front office? 

A good honest question that needs to be asked.  Just like we need to wonder what the new owners of the Timberwolves are going to be like ? I have my concerns that they would move the team out of town ASAP if the could just from watching how they have acted over the last few years.

[Otaknam]

23 hours ago, rv78 said:

Rocco may not have as many options this year but that doesn't mean he'll abandoned the idea or even tone it back a little. Mentally he doesn't have what it takes to be a Manager. Anyone who can't figure out how to avoid scheduled off-days for Correa and Buxton when they fall on the same day by simply adjusting one of them 1 day in either direction, when he is the one who sets the schedule, doesn't seem to be very intelligent. 

That’s a fair point on Rocco resting his star players on the same day. I think he dogmatically sets up a resting schedule for each player in advance, regardless of how it hamstrings the lineup on a specific day. It’s reminiscent of Tom Kelly playing two or three backups on getaway day, producing an inept lineup of Denny Hockings. I always avoided getaway day for that reason because the chance of winning was slim. 

[JD-TWINS]

23 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

You can wish in one hand and c**p in the other and see which one weighs  more ,..

Speaking of weighing more , Rocco and FO has weighted down the twins players , our prospects are showing that once they reach the MLB level ...

Arraez was the last player to run with the opportunity and he wasn't even a prospect on the radar , Lewis has shown flashes in 3 injury filled seasons , but his collapse last season in second half for now has fans wondering what to expect ...

How is it the FO’s fault when essentially the entire line-up shuts down for the last 6 weeks of the season in ‘24?

[TopGunn#22]

I think Riverbrian encapsulated this discussion with his last comment.  The Twins, from the FO to the manager seem to be obsessed with defeating the drop in productivity when a LH hitter has to face a LH pitcher.

There are tons of examples where RH hitters actually hit better against RH pitchers.  Miranda is just the most recent example, but if you went back to Harmon Killebrew, you'd see he hit the vast majority of his 573 HR's off of RH pitchers.  And that makes sense because there are a lot more RH pitchers than there are lefties.  

I'm not thrilled about the Bader pickup because he's a limited asset for $6 million that we've been told over and over is a HUGE expense for current ownership.  I would have been fine if they would have just had Keirsey as the 4th OF.  That way if Buxton is hurt for any length of time, Keirsey would be hitting against RHP 75% of the time anyway. 

The FO's failure to add any kind of RH bat that would help balance the offense is concerning, but as tony&rodney has mentioned many times, the Twins are not a good defensive team.  At least Bader makes their OF defense BETTER.  

They still desperately need offense though.  Julien is not a major league hitter after what I witnessed last season.  He has no business making the team out of spring training even if he hits .400.  He's got to absolutely RAKE at St. Paul for half the season before I even consider bringing him up.

They may indeed get a mid season boost from E-Rod and Keaschall but that would be more hope than certainty.  Health will always be first and foremost with this roster as the key players (Correa & Buxton) while talented, are often unavailable.  You can Royce Lewis to that group. 

I'm not convinced Jeffers is a "major league hitter" because he's too inconsistent.  I would have preferred to see the Bader $6 million used in a trade that might have added some salary...a Yandy Diaz or Ryan Mountcastle at 1B.  Both of them can be everyday players even though Baltimore has used Mountcastle in a bit of a platoon with Ryan O'Hearn the last couple of years.  

I'm convinced we can pitch well.  I'm a little nervous about the lineup top to bottom if Buxton, Correa and Lewis all play 100 or more games (and it seems absurd to me that out of a 162 game schedule, that is how LOW the bar is).  But if Buxton, Correa and Lewis all miss 60-70 games I don't like what our lineup looks like at all.  

The "hope" is that if the Twins are in the mix come the trade deadline, new ownership will identify a hitter (or more) and aggressively make the trade to give the ballclub a jolt.  

[stringer bell]

Harmon had a good OPS against righties (.869), but he was better across the board against lefties in OBP, Slugging and OPS. There are few exceptions with players who have substantial careers that they were better against same-side hurlers. 

I don't know what the criteria for a major league hitter is, but Jeffers put together a fine year in 2023 and the first third of 2024 was also All-Star level. Maybe he was nursing an injury, maybe he hit in bad luck or maybe he just hit a funk. He still was an above-average hitter (especially for a catcher) for 2024. In his career, he has an OPS+ of 104. The questions come next year, presumably without Vázquez, if he should play more and whether he should be extended. Given the dearth of projectable catching depth, I would think the Twins will try to hang on to him.

[stringer bell]

5 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

How is it his advantage? Stacking all your pure lefties within 4 spots in the order... draws out the lefthander.

Are you saying it was his advantage to draw out the lefty? 

Not sure if I agree, but it would guarantee a shot for the right handed hitters to pinch hit against a lefty. Going back two years, Solano and Farmer were the primary pinch hitters hitting for maybe Julien and Kirilloff against the first guy out of the BP for the opponents, so probably a marginal talent.