Joe Ryan, Jose Berrios, and the Twins' Next Homegrown Pitching Gamble

There is something appealing about developing a starting pitcher, watching him become an All-Star, and keeping him in the organization for the prime years of his career. Homegrown players can become the foundation of a successful team, and few positions are more difficult to fill than the top of a starting rotation. However, paying pitchers for their future performance is one of the most dangerous investments a team can make.

The Minnesota Twins have already faced this situation with José Berríos. They eventually traded the homegrown right-hander to the Toronto Blue Jays when the two sides couldn't find common ground on an extension. Now, Joe Ryan is approaching a similar point in his career.

Ryan has become one of Minnesota's most recognizable players and an important part of its rotation. He also has one year of team control remaining. Should the Twins make a significant financial commitment to keep him around, or should they repeat the pattern established by their previous experience with Berríos?

The José Berríos Situation

Berríos was one of the most important homegrown players the Twins developed during the 2010s. After selecting him in the first round of the 2012 MLB Draft, Minnesota watched him develop into a reliable major-league starter. He earned two All-Star selections and became the organization's Opening Day starter in multiple seasons.

However, contract negotiations never reached a successful conclusion. The two sides discussed a potential extension, but they were unable to agree on the financial commitment. As Berríos approached the end of his team control, Minnesota decided to move him at the 2021 trade deadline.

The Blue Jays acquired Berríos on July 30, 2021, sending top prospects Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson to Minnesota. Toronto clearly had an interest in keeping its new starting pitcher beyond the remainder of the season. Just a few months after the trade, Berríos agreed to a seven year, $131 million contract.

That was a substantial commitment, but it represented a reasonable market value for a 27 year old starting pitcher with his track record. Toronto was willing to pay for his durability and establish him as a long term piece of its rotation.

His performance with the Blue Jays has included some significant highs and lows. Berríos struggled during his first full season in Toronto, posting a 5.23 ERA across 32 starts in 2022. However, he bounced back over the next two seasons. He recorded a 3.65 ERA in 2023 and followed that with a 3.60 ERA in 2024. He also made 32 starts in each season, providing the type of consistency teams want from a veteran starter.

His performance slipped again in 2025, when he finished with a 4.17 ERA in 31 appearances. Unfortunately, his durability finally became a significant concern. Elbow problems carried into 2026, and Berríos eventually underwent Tommy John surgery in May and missed the rest of the season. 

Looking at the entire situation, the Twins were not necessarily wrong to move Berríos, and Toronto was not necessarily wrong to extend him. The Blue Jays received several productive seasons from their investment, but they also assumed the financial risk associated with a long term pitching contract.

Minnesota received two prospects for a pitcher who was approaching free agency. That return provided the organization with additional young talent, although neither player was a guaranteed replacement for the production Berríos could have provided. The larger lesson is that keeping a homegrown pitcher can be valuable, but it comes with considerable risk. Even durable starters can experience performance fluctuations and significant injuries.

Joe Ryan Is Approaching the Same Crossroads

Ryan is entering a similar stage of his career with Minnesota. He has established himself as a dependable major league starter, earned two All Star selections, and become one of the most important pitchers on the Twins' roster.

There is no question that Ryan provides value. He finished the 2026 season with a 3.79 ERA, and 159 strikeouts across 144 2/3 innings. His strikeout ability (25.9 K% in 2026) and overall track record make him an important piece of Minnesota's rotation.

However, his 2026 campaign included some warning signs. Ryan carried a 2.85 ERA into the All Star break, but his first three starts afterward were disastrous. He surrendered 16 earned runs across 15 1/3 innings before the Twins placed him on the injured list with a left glute strain on August 7.

He returned to the rotation on September 7 after a rehab outing. His first three starts back resulted in eight earned runs over 12 innings, including two losses. Ryan did finish the season on a more encouraging note, allowing two runs while striking out eight across six innings against the Texas Rangers in his final start.

The injury does not erase everything Ryan has accomplished, but it raises questions about what Minnesota should expect moving forward. The Twins have seen how effective he can be when everything is working. They also have seen how quickly things can change when he struggles or deals with an injury.

Minnesota finished 77-85 in 2026, placing third in the American League Central and eight games behind the Cleveland Guardians. The club remained in the postseason picture until the final month, but there are still significant roster questions heading into the next season.

Ryan has one year of team control remaining before he can reach free agency following the 2027 season. That gives Minnesota another year to evaluate his health, consistency, and ability to lead the rotation.

There is also a financial component to consider. Committing to Ryan now would mean guaranteeing future money to a pitcher coming off an injury interrupted season. It could also complicate Minnesota's ability to pursue a trade if the team falls out of contention during the 2027 season. A healthy Ryan would be an attractive option for a contender looking to strengthen its rotation, potentially bringing back valuable prospects or controllable talent.

For an organization that needs to improve several areas of its roster, maintaining that flexibility is important.

Replace the final section with this version, which puts more emphasis on Ryan's age and why a long-term extension may not fit the Twins' plans.

An Extension Is Unlikely

The Twins should not rush into a long term commitment with Ryan simply because he is a homegrown player. In fact, an extension might be unlikely, especially when considering where he is in his career. Ryan was a late bloomer who took a less conventional path to becoming an established big league starter. He is already 30 years old and will turn 31 next June.

That age is an important factor when discussing a potential contract. A typical extension for a younger starting pitcher can buy out several seasons of arbitration and potentially secure the player's prime years. Ryan is in a different situation. Any significant extension would likely cover seasons when he is already well into his 30s. The Twins would be guaranteeing money to a pitcher whose long-term durability is still an important question.

There is also the organization's financial situation to consider. Minnesota has several areas of its roster that need attention, and committing substantial resources to an aging starting pitcher could limit its ability to address those needs. Ryan has earned the right to pursue a significant contract, but the Twins might not be the organization willing to provide it.

Berríos provides an interesting comparison. Toronto was willing to make a seven-year commitment to a pitcher who was still in his 20s. Ryan is already past that point, making the financial calculations considerably different. Even if Ryan returns to his previous form in 2027, the Twins would have to determine whether they want to invest in his early-to-mid 30s. An extension might not be realistic, but that does not eliminate the possibility of keeping Ryan for another season or exploring a trade if the team falls out of contention.

The Twins learned with Berríos that homegrown pitchers do not always remain with an organization for their entire careers. Ryan could eventually follow a similar path, particularly with free agency approaching and his age becoming a larger part of the contract conversation. Minnesota should appreciate what he has accomplished, but it also needs to recognize the financial and performance risks of paying a starting pitcher into his mid-30s.

Sometimes the best decision is recognizing when a player's value to the organization is greater than the contract it would take to keep him.

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