Has Waiting Out the Market Every Winter Been Successful for the Twins?

[Greggory Masterson]

In the eight offseasons since Derek Falvey took the helm in Minnesota, the Twins have averaged three major-league signings or trades after Feb. 1. All signs point to a similar late charge in 2025, but is it a good strategy?

Image courtesy of © Kim Klement-Imagn Images

There are a few reasons why waiting until late in the offseason to make moves can be seen as doing smart business. Some big names may fall through the cracks and have to settle for less money after their other (often more spendy) suiters have already run through their budgets. Suddenly, those big names have to decide whether they want to play for less money than expected or not play at all.

But even if the names aren’t big, the same idea applies. Say 10 teams started the offseason looking for a back-end starter, and in February, eight of the fifteen free back-end starter agents had already signed. Those last seven players are trying to get jobs with the last two teams. Those two teams now get to grab their favorite at the right price.

The same happens with trades. Your veteran might be worth a little more when the free-agent pool gets thin. Conversely, a team desperate to shed salary might be more willing to give you their guy at a bargain. It’s all a push and pull, and being patient can open the door to deals that weren’t possible in December.

But there is a downside. If you’ve had the privilege of picking over the last seven back-end starters in free agency, you might need to ask yourself why these seven, specifically, fell to you. Sure, you can pick the best of them, but even at a discount, are they actually a better deal than going out and getting your guy before Christmas?

Let’s review the 24 February and March acquisitions that Falvey and Co. have made since 2017.

2017: The Matt Belisle Year (slight success)
I almost left this year off because the pattern truly didn’t start until the following offseason. It was Falvey’s first season, and they signed Belisle as a setup-ish pitcher for $2.05 million. He had a solid year, so it was a success, but probably only in spirit.

2018: The Messy Year (failure with one bright spot)
This is the year that could have scared a lot of GMs off this strategy. The headliners everyone thinks of when 2018 comes up are Lance Lynn and Logan Morrison. Lynn signed a one-year, $12-million deal on Mar. 10. Morrison signed a one-year, $6.5-million contract two weeks earlier, on Feb. 25.

Lynn was one of the top pitchers on the market, but because of a historically bad year for free agents, he needed Minnesota’s paltry offer. Morrison was coming off a breakout 2017 campaign, but he still didn’t get the market he expected. Both players were described as disgruntled, and their on-field performance matched those rumors. Lynn had his worst year as a pro before being traded at midseason, and Morrison basically played his way out of baseball in 2018.

The strategy did work to some extent, as they signed starting pitcher Anibal Sánchez a week before Morrison on Feb. 17, and he had two very good years in 2018 and 2019—just not for the Twins. Compounding the error of signing Lynn, the Twins cut Sánchez a month after signing him to clear roster space for Lynn.

The true bright spot was their trade for Jake Odorizzi. The Twins had been going back and forth with the Rays, negotiating a deal to acquire a starting pitcher for much of the offseason. When the Twins truly had a need arise (an Ervin Santana injury), they pulled the trigger, sending Jermaine Palacios to Tampa Bay in what was largely a salary dump for their trading partners.

Odorizzi was a consistent force in the rotation through 2019, and the Feb. 18 trade is one of the crown jewels of Falvey’s tenure. Sometimes, being patient and getting the right deal for a guy you want does pay off. Beyond that, still having resources to add when needs arise late in the offseason (both prospect and monetary capital) is beneficial.

Also, they traded Luis Gil for Jake Cave on Mar. 16, another opportunistic failure—the Yankees needed to clear 40-man roster space and Cave was on the chopping block. We all know how this one turned out.

2019: The Marwin González Year (success)
González was still sitting around after spring training had started. On Feb. 22, he signed a two-year, $21-million deal. There were question marks around Miguel Sanó following a miserable year and an offseason injury that would keep him out of the lineup for the season's first two months.

In reflecting on the disastrous 2018 season, Falvey and Levine had specifically mentioned feeling they were overbalanced with players on one-year deals, particularly because Lynn and Morrison came in somewhat unhappy. Between those two and Brian Dozier, the front office felt they had allowed a "mercenary" mentality to overtake the clubhouse. Many assumed that would be the end of the Twins backstopping the market for high-profile free agents, but instead, they plunged right back into the same waters one year later.

The difference was that they gave their quarry a multi-year deal this time. González made some money, likely less than he’d hoped, but filled a role. This one probably wasn’t as intentional as others on the list, because it was spurred by a late need arising, but they probably couldn’t have gotten González for that price any earlier than they did. It's somewhat similar to the Odorizzi trade.

2020: The Maeda-Betts-Graterol Debacle (slight success)
A team preferring opportunism doesn’t preclude them from getting a little fixated on their guy. Initially, a deal that sent Mookie Betts and David Price to Los Angeles, Kenta Maeda to Minnesota, and Brusdar Graterol and Dodger prospects to Boston broke down over the Red Sox's concerns about Graterol. The three teams then arranged their moves separately. Instead of Boston, Graterol was sent to Los Angeles on Feb. 9, along with Luke Raley and a competitive balance pick, for Maeda, Jair Camargo and $10 million.

Maeda had a solid run in Minnesota, including a Cy Young runner-up abbreviated season in 2020, but he also lost significant time to injury. Graterol has been a very good reliever when healthy, but you generally take a good starter over a great reliever.

2021: The Freakin’ Offseason (failure with one bright spot)
Sometimes, even the most low-risk purchases can be devastating. On Feb. 3 and 15, the Twins signed Alex Colomé and Matt Shoemaker, respectively, for a combined $8.5 million. Similar to Lynn and Morrison, it’s not entirely unfounded to point at these two as a significant reason that the Twins had the season that they did. At times, picking over the leftovers only returns leftovers.

Nelson Cruz also came back for his third year in Minnesota, signing Feb. 3. He put together a good first half, well worth the $13 million investment, and he was the centerpiece in the trade that brought Joe Ryan to Minnesota at the trade deadline. In this case, gambling and waiting worked, as Cruz had limited suiters despite a terrific 2019 and 2020.

Also, they traded LaMonte Wade Jr. for Shaun Anderson on Feb. 5. This might have been a case of waiting too long to decide on a trade that the team knew it “needed” to make (after choosing Cave over Wade as their fourth outfielder). However, I'm not sure if it counts.

2022: The Lockout Year (definitely doesn’t count)
It’d be a little disingenuous to include these moves in their “wait it out” plans, because everyone was waiting it out. The league had a months-long freeze on any transactions over a labor dispute, so every team made a flurry of moves in March. In order, the Twins traded Mitch Garver for Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Ronny Henriquez; traded Chase Petty for Sonny Gray and Francis Peguero; traded Kiner-Falefa, Josh Donaldson, and Ben Rortvedt for Gary Sánchez and Gio Urshela; signed Carlos Correa; signed Joe Smith; and signed Chris Archer in a span of 16 days in March. If we remove the seven trades and signings this year, the team has still averaged 2.4 February-or-later moves per offseason, or 2.7 if you also throw out 2017.

I will isolate one trade that shows just how long Falvey is willing to wait for a “good deal.” On Opening Day, Apr. 7, he completed a trade, sending Taylor Rogers, Brent Rooker, and $6 million to San Diego for Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagán. By that point, Falvey had been shopping Rogers for something close to eight months, and he finally got a deal he saw as good on the first day of the season. We don’t need to get into all the details, but this one is mixed, to say the least, with ardent critics and defenders on both sides. I'm sure some will show up in these very comments.

2023: The Donnie Barrels Year (success)
Honestly, Donovan Solano is probably the best bang-for-your-buck player on this 31-player list. At just $2 million, the Feb. 22 signing was brought in as infield depth and a bench righty. He ended up with the third-most plate appearances on the team, was one of the most consistent bats in the lineup for the full year, and really excelled as a pinch-hitter. If the Twins could hit on another one like this in 2025, it’d go a long way.

2024: Ballin’ on a Budget (failure, with one success)
Days after dumping Jorge Polanco’s contract to Seattle (which happened in late January, so it didn’t make the cut here), the Twins reallocated his money to Carlos Santana on Feb. 3 ($5.25 million) and Jay Jackson on Feb. 4 ($1.5 million). Santana worked, effectively a step up from Solano with a slightly greater payday. Jackson didn’t. But that’s what happens when you’re constrained to filling holes with the $6 million cleared from your starting second baseman’s trade.

They essentially did a salary swap with Miami, flipping Nick Gordon for Steven Okert, a trade that had no winners. Then they spent the last $4 million earmarked for outfield help on a trade for Manuel Margot, prospect Rayne Doncon, and cash, sending Noah Miller to Los Angeles. I sure hope Doncon pans out.

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This is the new way of the MLB offseason. The Twins aren't alone in taking this approach; they just stretch the strategy toward an extreme other teams are more reluctant to reach. The results are often decent; that's why waiting things out has become such a popular paradigm.

The crime of which they're guilty isn't being dumb; it's being uninspiring and underwhelming. Top free agents will always sign early, and blockbuster trades nearly always happen in November and December. Confining themselves to February means voluntarily losing the winter in an effort to win the summer and fall. Again, all 30 teams are increasingly comfortable with that. The Falvey front office is just more patient (and more willing to underwhelm you, if it comes to that) than most.

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[Mark G]

While success and failure can be a matter of opinion, the one thing that is a verifiable fact out of all of it is they have been incredibly successful at underwhelming me.  😏

(But I did appreciate the history review, Greggory; thanks for a good article).

[karcherd]

The overall philosophy of this front office has produced one good season and a combined .500 record over the other non-Covid years.  So based on overall results no it is not working to wait out the crowd.  This is where I want new ownership, we need new leadership driving the bus.  Their analytics driven operations and trying to play the odds will create .500 plus or minus a few wins over the course of a season.  Get quality players, give them a position and tell them to play everyday, that is what will contend for more than the playoffs.  But by waiting out the market, you again are just trying to get another role player that will be put into spots where they won't be successful overall.

[Russ]

You give the front office too much credit when it keeps the Twins mediocre.

[dxpavelka]

You can say 2022 doesn't count but are you doing so for the sake of one side of an argument?You certainly can't overlook the results, which were significant.

[Original_JB]

To me, the question here is who did they miss out on by not scooping out of the barrel early, and waiting for the dregs to settle? Compared to what we ended up with, who spent early, say, up to 10% more, and got much better results? Ultimately, that is what you're asking, isn't it?  (I'm not going looking, but you must have all that data more or less at hand since you just did this article)

[Otaknam]

The Twins are swimming in the infants pool, not where the big boys swim. The bad news is that the big boy pool is getting wider and deeper, restricted to the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, and a few others who have almost unlimited funds. We know it’s a problem when the Yankees are complaining about how much the Dodgers are spending. The YANKEES, who have bludgeoned most teams for years with their own over spending on free agents. 

[Coach Wheels]

Their goal every off season to get the best of the leftovers. Correa fell into their lap but the rest of this is just about getting a deal on guys no one else really wants. 

I can't imagine going to work every day and knowing I'm leading the "best of the worst." #Common man 😉

[dxpavelka]

53 minutes ago, karcherd said:

The overall philosophy of this front office has produced one good season and a combined .500 record over the other non-Covid years.  So based on overall results no it is not working to wait out the crowd.  This is where I want new ownership, we need new leadership driving the bus.  Their analytics driven operations and trying to play the odds will create .500 plus or minus a few wins over the course of a season.  Get quality players, give them a position and tell them to play everyday, that is what will contend for more than the playoffs.  But by waiting out the market, you again are just trying to get another role player that will be put into spots where they won't be successful overall.

I hope you realize that new ownership is NOT a guarantee of different results.  Maybe not even different means of trying.

 

[tony&rodney]

Well said - uninspiring. 

[beckmt]

11 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

I hope you realize that new ownership is NOT a guarantee of different results.  Maybe not even different means of trying.

 

I am hoping the new owners want to win and will spend some money (do not expect crazy money)  Still waiting to see what the market brings (if anything), but just improved health will probably be a win this year.  That with some growth to the players that come up last year.

[mikelink45]

I am completely underwhelmed by this summary but appreciate having you lay it out.  When did we sign Happ (Jan 22 2021) and Shoemaker-(Feb 28, 2021) do they fit in?  

While I am pleased we went with Correa I have to say the rest of the league handed him to us!

We signed Martin Perez Jan 30, 2019.  Why has he been better for other teams than for us?

We signed Homer Bailey earlier - the end of Dec 2019, but what a transaction!

And the list of RP we picked up would fill the grocery cart - most were not low hanging fruit, but rather fruit that had fallen to the ground.

 

[NYCTK]

10 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Well said - uninspiring. 

Somewhere along the way the Twins forgot that they need to sell a product to consumers. They just assume they have a loyal fan base that will reward them for being a well disciplined business. 

Shockingly, attendance doesn't reflect that. 

[thelanges5]

Health, young guys taking a step forward, new owners that want to win. That’s what we Twins fans have to look forward to/hope for at the moment. 
 

I do like this roster overall. I fear that 1B and RH corner bat will have to come from within. 

[chpettit19]

21 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I am completely underwhelmed by this summary but appreciate having you lay it out.  When did we sign Happ (Jan 22 2021) and Shoemaker-(Feb 28, 2021) do they fit in?  

While I am pleased we went with Correa I have to say the rest of the league handed him to us!

We signed Martin Perez Jan 30, 2019.  Why has he been better for other teams than for us?

We signed Homer Bailey earlier - the end of Dec 2019, but what a transaction!

And the list of RP we picked up would fill the grocery cart - most were not low hanging fruit, but rather fruit that had fallen to the ground.

 

Martin Perez hasn't been much better with anyone else outside of his first year in Texas that's an extreme outlier. He had a 2.89 ERA that year. He hasn't had a single other year with an ERA under 4.50 since 2016. His FIP his year with us was actually his second best since 2016. He's basically been the same guy outside of his extreme outlier 2022 season.

[Parfigliano]

Limited money leads to signing limited players.

[DJL44]

They haven't been particularly adept at picking over the leftovers. This year there seems to be a lot of players available in February who can help. Perhaps having an open roster spot will allow them to grab a couple useful players who want to avoid a minor league contract.

[karcherd]

53 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

I hope you realize that new ownership is NOT a guarantee of different results.  Maybe not even different means of trying.

 

I do realize that, but I am hoping that there will be a fresh review of the results of the last eight years.  And that they will hopefully not want to settle to be a .500 team.  The Pohlads have signaled their support for Falvey via his promotion and there is no accountability for the results.

[Doctor Gast]

Good job Gregg, very interesting. I think there is some difference between FA & trade offseason & if you are buying or selling at the deadline. IMO if you want to dump salary like this year, you are at a disadvantage. Because when you put up a "fire sale sign" up, sit back & wait for other FOs give you a reasonable offer it's not going to happen. If you are proactive, you find many teams that need what you are selling & give them reasonable offers, IMO you are in a much better situation. Paddack for an example. He is the easiest player to replace with a cheaper replacement. His market was very high in the beginning of the offseason but now all those would be buyer have already filled out their rotation with FA SPs & trades. Now his market is practically zero.

We were lucky with Odorizzi (TB) '19, & Lopez (MIA) '23 where they had a surplus of arms. TB was fortunate before with MN trades before filling out their SP & SS needs (Garza & Bartlett). MIA needed a bat. Disgruntal Maeda '20, LAD  was desperate to move. These years when we were lucky we came up with successful seasons. The others years we were victim of being vulnerable to other FOs & to get something done they scrambled & made rash trades & resulting in failed seasons. Depending on luck & hope is no way to do business.

Picking up quality FA SP like Lynn late usually ends up in a disgruntled & out of shape pitcher. Picking up any SP late is disruptive especially after spring training starts. We were lucky in '22 to sign Correa but because of bad trades & direction change it didn't result in any success. When we bought at the deadline we almost always lost. When we sold we normally came out on top. Sorry, Gregg. There is no discounting on any transaction.

 

 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

Somewhere along the way the Twins forgot that they need to sell a product to consumers. They just assume they have a loyal fan base that will reward them for being a well disciplined business. 

Shockingly, attendance doesn't reflect that. 

I was going to add this on my comment above. Both fanatic Twins fans and casual fans are generally not too excited by the team. Why is that missed by the owners and front office? I go to games and am put off by a lack of fundamental execution as much as the boring station to station play.

Then there are some mind numbing substitutions in the 4th and 5th innings which wind up being awkward in the late innings. The noise from the PA system is just intrusive for this old man, but I have been asked by people in the 20s and 30s why the Twins pump so much pointless noise into the game.

Between the lack of actions by the team and the unusual public relations a new ownership group cannot come fast enough. I'm expecting sweeping change in the next 12 months.

The Twins are the guy who lives next door who never painted his house or cleaned up his yard for years and then put the house on the market and still made a decent profit. Many of us are eager for a new neighbor.

[NYCTK]

53 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Perhaps having an open roster spot will allow them to grab a couple useful players who want to avoid a minor league contract.

Technically they don't have an open roster spot, as their 40 man roster is full. Not that it wouldn't be DFA any of about a dozen people. Micheal Tonkin probably already has his bags packed. 

[NYCTK]

8 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Then there are some mind numbing substitutions in the 4th and 5th innings which wind up being awkward in the late innings.

Even the way Rocco managed the finale of the season, one of the only days fans actually did come out in September in order to send off the boys of summer into their winter hibernation. He didn't even play Buxton and Correa. 

Is that the biggest deal? No, of course not. But you're not playing for anything and the few loyal Twins fans you still have left showed up and don't even get to see the stars of the franchise play for a token inning or plate appearance? I'd have been insulted if I were in the stadium. 

[jmlease1]

I would argue 2020 was a success: Maeda was great for us, exactly what we needed. (and following 2019, which had been an unqualified success with the "early" signings of Cron, Schoop, and the big one Nelson Cruz, adding on Marwin late worked out very nicely)

but that's also part of the question; Twins didn't really wait out the market in 2019, did they? sure, they added Marwin late, but they signed Cron, Schoop, and Cruz early to normal in the FA window.

I don't really think the Twins have a defined strategy for waiting out the market. I suspect they're simply a team with limited resources and haven't always been able to compete earlier on, not without taking on more risk. Nelson Cruz is a good example of this: very good hitter with a long track record coming off a down season at 38. A 2-year deal for a DH-only player with that profile has some risk, but the Twins paid it and landed him. 

I'm betting they could have landed Goldschmitt this year if they'd had the money to go to 2 years and $25M...but they didn't. When the market for aging 1Bs bumped over $10M for 2025, the twins were pushed out. I'm sure they were talking to 1B options in December, but no one was signing for $6M at that point and the twins didn't have more to play with because of the ownership's payroll limitations.

[PatPfund]

Like this, because it gives some solid perspective. But... You can't totally discount the lockout year, because several teams DID act early in making deals before the league shuttered transactions. Plus, "top free agents" don't always sign early; ask Bregman about that, or some Boras clients who waited until late, then settled for short contracts with opt-outs. The deadline also fits today's date, but the pressure starts before Feb 1; the Twins essentially scored Carlos Correa twice by waiting (the Boras thing, then after the big spenders backed out, on Carlos's current deal).

It is also worth looking around at others playing the game; the Twins COULD have signed Lorenzen last year for roughly Margot money, and they likely win the division if they do (he pitched well was flipped for assets at the trade deadline, and then helped another team in our division make the playoffs). 

Edited January 31, 2025 by PatPfund
Hilarious typo

[High heat]

There is a lot of outside factors that go into a successful campaign and a complete failure in a season for a player.  
 

I hope they have learned from some of there many blunders.  It seems that making moves just to make a move has been the biggest issue and been to focused on a “good deal” even if they player doesn’t fit.  
 

I actually think there are some decent players that would fit still left in free agency if they squeeze ownership for a few million. (Rizzo, Ramon Laureano) 

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

I'm sure if you looked at any mid-market club, you'd find similarly disappointing offseasons for each of them.

When is the last time the Rays, Guardians, Mariners, Rockies, Reds, Pirates, Brewers, or Marlins had an "exciting" offseason? The Royals were exciting last winter after 10 years of sitting on their hands. The only mid-market teams that make "splashy" offseason moves, the Cardinals and Diamondbacks, have ownership groups that invest in the team when they are doing well, not reduce the payroll be $30M the year after winning their first playoff game in 19 years.

It's not Falvey's fault that the Twins enter the offseason every year with $20M to spend.

[David Maro]

The biggest problem with the deals made on the pitching side is and has been too many dead arm pitchers. It all started with Big Mike and kept going on from there. It needs to change or they will have problems like last year finding arms to finish the season.

[Craig Arko]

I guess it depends on what the expectations are.

[ashbury]

If Solano is the best "bang for the buck", put me down for just maximum "bang".  You can't build a winning roster $2M at a time, so a signing like this is nothing more than filler when a hole in the roster is perceived.

[sweetmusicviola16]

At this point in the off season I hope that Falvey/Zoll do nothing rather than a reactionary panic move.  Sign a Laureno type to a one-year deal for low dollars and call it good if you really need to.. Go with what we have. Polanco signing for almost 8 mil shows that anybody of use isn't coming cheap. Bader, Grichuk, Canha are not signing for minimum dollars. We just have to realize that no flash move is coming. Unless they are willing to trade a top prospect or two. Please just don't trade Vazquez or Castro at this point to dump salary. This team can't afford to lose them and replace them with who is left on the board.