Has Waiting Out the Market Every Winter Been Successful for the Twins?

[Dawgzilla]

Hello no!  The parity of MLB is horrendous!  Sell the team or move it.  If you are in business, you want to always make money, sometimes that doesn't, then adjust.  Now, if you are hemorrhaging money continuously, reset, remodel, revamp, etc.....or sell the losing proposition, like to a winner.  Like the captain of the w w. 2 battleship Washington said, "move aside, I'm coming through"!  His ship was the only battleship to sink another in straight conflict with another.  The haves and have not have waaaayyy to much discrepancy in payrolls.  Yes, having the highest payroll doesn't always win you a championship, but it surely increases your odds of not only making the playoffs (every year), not to mention always be in contention; the same can't be said for the "small market teams".  And don't give me this how many championships the Yankees have won, let alone Dodgers and the likes, most titles were bought through free agency spending, some withstanding!!!

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

It's not Falvey's fault that the Twins enter the offseason every year with $20M to spend.

Maybe it is the FO fault, because the haven't been very good at developing starting players? I am not defending the owners in any way but it might be easier to spend money if the cheap guys (drafted/traded) where better? (There have been a few, Duran, Jax, Ryan, Jeffers? and Ober) but everybody is still kind of waiting on what is Lewis, Larnach, Wallner, Martin, Julien, Miranda, Lee, Festa, Matthews, and on and on.

Last year the Twins could have cut/saved over 16 million simply by not picking up Polanco and Farmer. Told Larnach or Wallner (I would have preferred Larnach) to get a first basemen glove and that they were going to platoon with Miranda until one proved better. Started the season with the starters being Wallner/Buxton/Kepler/Lewis/CC/Julien/Jeffers/Wallner/AK(DH)

Bench - Martin/Castro/Vazquez/Miranda,

Used some of the 16 million to improve the offense before the season or the money at the trade deadline.

Instead they spent the money on Santana, Topa, Margot, and DeSclafani.

Lets praise this FO for being creative shall we.

[tony&rodney]

Please no Laurenao, Grichuk, Rizzo, Canha, Turner, Merrifield, etc. None of these guys will suddenly be the 2019 versions.

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

37 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Used some of the 16 million to improve the offense before the season or the money at the trade deadline.

Instead they spent the money on Santana, Topa, Margot, and DeSclafani.

The Dodgers spent twice that amount of money on players who weren't on the 2024 roster last year. So did the Yankees. The Mets spent five times that amount. Even the cash-strapped Guardians spent twice that amount on Jean Segura, Scott Barlow, Ramon Laureano, and Shane Bieber last season. Those are your four championship series teams, you'd be hard-pressed to complain about those clubs being inefficient in their use of $16M.

I'm pretty sure Carlos Santana was worth more than $16M to the Twins last year. Overall, those four players contributed a combined 1.8 bWAR, which is $8.89M/bWAR which is good. Without Santana manning 1B last year, I don't think we would have gotten into September with a realistic chance of going to the playoffs.

The difference between our club and those clubs is that we're in a position where the front office is being chastised for turning $16M (which they had to create by trading away Polanco) into 1.8 bWAR, and three of those four clubs are spending $160M/year every offseason on new free agents. 

 

[silverslugger]

But you were analytical before analytics were a thing!  When you played your "seasons" back in the day you and I were both stats-nerds.  Is it just Falvey you don't trust?  Or, is it more Rocco with the way he makes daily decisions?

[thelanges5]

Vázquez, Paddack, and Castro are worth more to us than other teams. No one out there worth spending FA $$ on. (In our price range)
 

Time to let the kids play! ⚾️

[BillyBallLives]

Enjoyed the article. 

A monkey throwing darts would probably perform better as a GM.

[ashbury]

I suppose if you analyze any team, and focus solely on the transactions made after Feb 1 each season, you could conclude that the team only picks up the scraps that are left over.

[sweetmusicviola16]

37 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Please no Laurenao, Grichuk, Rizzo, Canha, Turner, Merrifield, etc. None of these guys will suddenly be the 2019 versions.

I honestly don't think you'll have anything to worry about in that regard tony. I believe the roster is pretty set. The only real question is who gets the final bench spot. Hellman or Kiersey? Or who will get cut if they think Emrod is ready. Martin or Julien? A hunch tells me that they have made the big move that many have been clamoring for. That was the trade for Gasper. I think Gasper is ahead in the cut pecking order of Kiersey, Hellman, Julien and Martin. The way I'm seeing it through their eyes is that Gasper platoons at 1B. Is an emergency C. Fills in at 2B at times and gets some of the reps in COF as a RH bat. I also see the Gasper thing as Falvey's at least once yearly need to see himself as the smartest man in the room. He has an ego that gets in his way and if he would get it out of his way I think he could actually be really really good at what he does.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

...It's not Falvey's fault that the Twins enter the offseason every year with $20M to spend.

Yes, it 100% is Falvey's fault considering the Twins have run a $120-150MM payroll for years and years now. Why does Falvey only have $20MM to spend at a payroll higher than 3 of the other 4 teams in the division?

[Rod Carews Birthday]

It is pretty difficult to refute that the Twins haven't made a lot of amazing last minute additions to the team by waiting out the market in the past few years, but I would argue that no one else has either - at least not while shopping in the same budget range as the Twins.  They have had a few successes though, so I suppose they have played that game about as well as anybody else has.  If the Twins had the budget to go after higher levels of free agents or be more willing to take on larger salaries, it would be much simpler to acquire players of impact for the team.  However, given their current situation, I really doubt that the reason for their lack of success is a lack of strategic timing.  It's $$$.

[bean5302]

I think 2022 definitely counts. Free Agency started at the beginning of The lockout didn't start until December while free agency began more than a month earlier. Tons of players were signed before the lockout.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Please no Laurenao, Grichuk, Rizzo, Canha, Turner, Merrifield, etc. None of these guys will suddenly be the 2019 versions.ror

Signing guys like them is counter productive.  It's DeScalfina level dumb.  It's just throwing money away which they can't afford

[TwinsDr2021]

51 minutes ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

The Dodgers spent twice that amount of money on players who weren't on the 2024 roster last year. So did the Yankees. The Mets spent five times that amount. Even the cash-strapped Guardians spent twice that amount on Jean Segura, Scott Barlow, Ramon Laureano, and Shane Bieber last season. Those are your four championship series teams, you'd be hard-pressed to complain about those clubs being inefficient in their use of $16M.

I'm pretty sure Carlos Santana was worth more than $16M to the Twins last year. Overall, those four players contributed a combined 1.8 bWAR, which is $8.89M/bWAR which is good. Without Santana manning 1B last year, I don't think we would have gotten into September with a realistic chance of going to the playoffs.

The difference between our club and those clubs is that we're in a position where the front office is being chastised for turning $16M (which they had to create by trading away Polanco) into 1.8 bWAR, and three of those four clubs are spending $160M/year every offseason on new free agents. 

 

So yes excuse the the FO for picking up salaries they didn't need to, because of what the Yanks, Dodgers, Mets and Guardians did, that doesn't even make sense.

They could have signed Santana without picking them up and still had spent 10 million less, and maybe or maybe not they Twins could have had a chance with him, I think it is just as likely to say without Margot, Farmer and the money spent on the Polanco trade they could have been in a better position.

My point in my first post was that because this FO hasn't developed enough viable starters (Or given them a chance to be viable) they are being forced to fill those needs with FA money instead of using the money saved from viable Pre Arb players on starter quality players. That was understandable (kind of) their first few years here because of what they inherited from the previous FO but they have been here long enough that it should be required drafted players or players traded for (Ryan and Duran for example) are filling more needs. If this FO was working for the Mets, Yanks, Dodgers it probably would be enough because of their resources to fill needs, but they don't they work for the Twins!

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

Vázquez, Paddack, and Castro are worth more to us than other teams. No one out there worth spending FA $$ on. (In our price range)️

Paddack has negative worth to the Twins. The kids in AAA are probably better. Trading him is addition by subtraction.

[Rhyno006]

Quote

Has Waiting Out the Market Every Winter Been Successful for the Twins?

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Maybe it is the FO fault, because the haven't been very good at developing starting players? I am not defending the owners in any way but it might be easier to spend money if the cheap guys (drafted/traded) where better? (There have been a few, Duran, Jax, Ryan, Jeffers? and Ober) but everybody is still kind of waiting on what is Lewis, Larnach, Wallner, Martin, Julien, Miranda, Lee, Festa, Matthews, and on and on.

Last year the Twins could have cut/saved over 16 million simply by not picking up Polanco and Farmer. Told Larnach or Wallner (I would have preferred Larnach) to get a first basemen glove and that they were going to platoon with Miranda until one proved better. Started the season with the starters being Wallner/Buxton/Kepler/Lewis/CC/Julien/Jeffers/Wallner/AK(DH)

Bench - Martin/Castro/Vazquez/Miranda,

Used some of the 16 million to improve the offense before the season or the money at the trade deadline.

Instead they spent the money on Santana, Topa, Margot, and DeSclafani.

Lets praise this FO for being creative shall we.

I hear ya ... but all of this is marginal compared to the top markets.  How much did the Dodgers payroll go up this year?  These marginal moves are highly unlikely to keep pace with what the top revenue teams spend.  Spending another $30M/year is a poor solution to catching teams spending an incremental $150M. 

The revenue gap has to be addressed in the next CBA and that will get ugly.  No-way the players accept a cap.  Last time they dug in hard on the amount they wanted the Luxury Tax increased because the big market teams having way more money means $300M+ deals.    A model that spreads the money out is feasible but sharing would mean lower revenue teams would have more to spend.  Those teams would still be less likely to give out the really giant deals.  It would probably mean more money for the middle tier free agents and that has not been the union's focus.  At least that's what it looks like.

[Parfigliano]

1 minute ago, Major League Ready said:

I hear ya ... but all of this is marginal compared to the top markets.  How much did the Dodgers payroll go up this year?  These marginal moves are highly unlikely to keep pace with what the top revenue teams spend.  Spending another $30M/year is a poor solution to catching teams spending an incremental $150M. 

The revenue gap has to be addressed in the next CBA and that will get ugly.  No-way the players accept a cap.  Last time they dug in hard on the amount they wanted the Luxury Tax increased because the big market teams having way more money means $300M+ deals.    A model that spreads the money out is feasible but sharing would mean lower revenue teams would have more to spend.  Those teams would still be less likely to give out the really giant deals.  It would probably mean more money for the middle tier free agents and that has not been the union's focus.  At least that's what it looks like.

Maybe the middle tier guys need to start raising a stink or form their own union.  The top 10-20 players totally running the union isn't such a great deal for mid or lower level guys.

[NYCTK]

11 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

It would probably mean more money for the middle tier free agents and that has not been the union's focus.

8 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Maybe the middle tier guys need to start raising a stink or form their own union.  The top 10-20 players totally running the union isn't such a great deal for mid or lower level guys.

This implies that there's not a lot of money for the middle tier guys right now. That comes as a surprise for Joc Pederson (2yrs/$37M), Frankie Montas (2yrs/$34M), Matthew Boyd (2yrs/$29M), Clay Holmes (3yrs/$38M), Tyler O'Neill (3yrs/$49M) etc, etc, etc. 

And this hasn't really changed in 15 years. They top tier get looks at 5+ year deals while the second tier guys have to settle for 2-3 years. In 2010 that meant the Twins signing Carl Pavano for 2 yrs $16.5M, and that contract value seems to have about doubled in that time. 

Unless we're looking at a tier below that, then we're looking at a player like Josh Bell getting $6M for 1 year, compared to someone like Jim Thome getting $3M for 1 year. 

I just see no evidence, none whatsoever, that the top players getting paid their fair value has hurt players below them. 

[thelanges5]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Paddack has negative worth to the Twins. The kids in AAA are probably better. Trading him is addition by subtraction.

Paddack + FCL pitcher type for Mountcastle. We need hitting and the O’s need pitching  

[weitz41]

The frustration of these late to no attempts to improve the team overwhelm the late moves if any. To be holy crap my team signed so and so. Compared to my team finally did something is significant when it comes to fan base enthusiasm and ticket sales.

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Yes, it 100% is Falvey's fault considering the Twins have run a $120-150MM payroll for years and years now. Why does Falvey only have $20MM to spend at a payroll higher than 3 of the other 4 teams in the division?

Do the other teams in the division have more than $20M/year to spend every offseason? I must be missing something because save for last year's Royals' spending spree, I don't know any teams (besides the CWS) in the division who enter November every year $20M in the black.

I would argue that the Twins have a very sustainable payroll structure. Correa, Buxton, and Lopez make a combined ~$75M. Then you have ~$25M invested in role players with one year left like Vazquez, Paddack, Castro, and Alcala. That leaves all of the guys in Arb or Pre-Arb making ~$30M.

Every team in our division has that same model. 50%-60% on three or four stars, 20%-35% on short-term, cheap veteran deals and Arb3 players, and the rest on controllable young players. The Cardinals, Reds, Mariners, and Brewers all have the same pay structure as well. The year the Diamondbacks won the NL pennant, they also followed this payroll structure. It's the way mid-market teams operate with any realistic chance of success.

We've been unable to do anything the last couple of offseasons, because the 2024 and 2025 budgets were/are $25M less than the 2023 budget. The Pohlads essentially forced the front office to give up their free agency budget. Being 4.5 wins away from a playoff spot, I'm almost certain that a Sonny Gray, Teoscar Hernandez, Sean Manaea, Jack Flaherty, or Joc Pederson would have made up the 4.5 game difference for the Twins last year. I have a feeling that we'll be having similar conversations about Walker/Santander/Scott/O'Neill/Pederson next offseason. 

[Blyleven2011]

10 hours ago, PatPfund said:

Like this, because it gives some solid perspective. But... You can't totally discount the lockout year, because several teams DID act early in making deals before the league shuttered transactions. Plus, "top free agents" don't always sign early; ask Bregman about that, or some Boras clients who waited until late, then settled for short contracts with opt-outs. The deadline also fits today's date, but the pressure starts before Feb 1; the Twins essentially scored Carlos Correa twice by waiting (the Boras thing, then after the big spenders backed out, on Carlos's current deal).

It is also worth looking around at others playing the game; the Twins COULD have signed Lorenzen last year for roughly Margot money, and they likely win the division if they do (he pitched well was flipped for assets at the trade deadline, and then helped another team in our division make the playoffs). 

Lorenzo was a starting pitcher , but what about puk for relief , puk a lefthanded reliever and with some control ,,

The front office hasn't made the right decision at a deadline yet ...

2022 they had no reason to believe the twins were contenders but made trades that didn't work out , and alot of us fans knew it ...

  now they begin being gun shy , 2023 we are a much better team and we don't make the push to be better and sit and do nothing  , 2024 we are 17 games over approximately at the deadline and again we do nothing and we know how the season  turned and finished out ...

When are we going to have some qualified intelligent people working in our system  , I will not cut this FO any slack , nor the manager  , they are not qualified to contruct a winning team , they are qualified to construct a limited payroll team   ...

This current FO  has been given an opportunity with a larger payroll  than Ryan  , I still have respect for Ryan  ...

Have a nice day ...

Go twins , and all we can hope for is finishing 3rd or 4th in the division  ...

 

 

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

Do the other teams in the division have more than $20M/year to spend every offseason? I must be missing something because save for last year's Royals' spending spree, I don't know any teams (besides the CWS) in the division who enter November every year $20M in the black...

Oh, here I was thinking you were complaining the Twins didn't spend enough, and because the Twins didn't spend enough, that hamstrung Falvey to a lowly $20MM of free cash.

The Twins have lost money since 2019. They were massively in the red in 2020, barely scraped by in 2021, massively in the red again in 2022, scraped by in 2023, and I don't know the estimated end results in 2024.

Rawr!!!!!

[old nurse]

13 hours ago, NYCTK said:

This implies that there's not a lot of money for the middle tier guys right now. That comes as a surprise for Joc Pederson (2yrs/$37M), Frankie Montas (2yrs/$34M), Matthew Boyd (2yrs/$29M), Clay Holmes (3yrs/$38M), Tyler O'Neill (3yrs/$49M) etc, etc, etc. 

And this hasn't really changed in 15 years. They top tier get looks at 5+ year deals while the second tier guys have to settle for 2-3 years. In 2010 that meant the Twins signing Carl Pavano for 2 yrs $16.5M, and that contract value seems to have about doubled in that time. 

Unless we're looking at a tier below that, then we're looking at a player like Josh Bell getting $6M for 1 year, compared to someone like Jim Thome getting $3M for 1 year. 

I just see no evidence, none whatsoever, that the top players getting paid their fair value has hurt players below them. 

That is because you are not looking at the players who have not produced with the large contracts 

[Major League Ready]

16 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Yes, it 100% is Falvey's fault considering the Twins have run a $120-150MM payroll for years and years now. Why does Falvey only have $20MM to spend at a payroll higher than 3 of the other 4 teams in the division?

They don't have much to spend because they signed Correa, Lopez, and Buxton in previous years.  Would you prefer they had not signed them?  We also had quite a bit in arbitration increases.   

The Twins are spending $84M this year on players that were extended or signed as free agents.  Also, TV revenue went down by $20M compared to the years they had higher payroll.  We could say it's Falvey's fault for signing Correa but it sure seems like most people here were very much in favor of that signing and the idea of trading him this off-season to make payroll room was very unpopular.   

[USAFChief]

8 hours ago, bean5302 said:

The Twins have lost money since 2019. 

HA!! Good one.

[old nurse]

20 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Signing guys like them is counter productive.  It's DeScalfina level dumb.  It's just throwing money away which they can't afford

Grichuck was a 2 war player last year as a part time platoon player, rh pinch hitter. If he could have maintained that while getting Margot’s playing time he would have come out as the Twin’s best player. How would have that been counter productive? 

[NYCTK]

5 hours ago, old nurse said:

That is because you are not looking at the players who have not produced with the large contracts 

Eh, I guess there could be an argument for a maximum deal length like the NBA, but the AAV will just jump up as a result. Soto would probably be something like a 5 year $350 million contract.

Does that help the middle tier guys? 

[bean5302]

5 hours ago, USAFChief said:

HA!! Good one.

The best sources on the information show it. If you have a more reputable source than Forbes/Statista, please provide it.

The blind fan rage and jealousy gets so old for me.