Is Rocco Baldelli a Lame Duck Manager in 2025?

[Nick Nelson]

We know the Twins manager is under contract for this coming season. After that, it gets murkier.

Image courtesy of Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

At the end of the 2024 season, following an all-out collapse that saw them fumble away their surefire playoff bid, the Minnesota Twins announced that both chief baseball exec Derek Falvey and manager Rocco Baldelli would be returning in 2025. In fact, the Twins deepened their commitment to Falvey by elevating him to a new role leading both the baseball and business sides of the organization.

The vote of confidence in Baldelli was not quite as pronounced, but Falvey made clear he intended to stick with his guy. “Rocco is my manager,” Falvey said. “I believe in his process, I believe in him, I believe in the partnership I have with him. That is how I feel, and ultimately, that's the way we're going to go forward.”

Baldelli will be back this year. We know that. What does the future hold beyond 2025? That is less clear, and maybe by design.

Because coaches and executives are not under the purview of the players union, we don't have transparency into the same details about their salaries and contracts as we do with players. However, we do have some info at hand based on what's out there in the public sphere. 

In 2023, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that Baldelli's original contract with the Twins ran from 2019 through 2022 with multiple club options. "Before last season," Rosenthal wrote at the time, "the Twins exercised the options and extended Baldelli for an unknown period beyond that, putting him under contract through at least 2025."

As far as I'm aware, that's the last we've heard about Baldelli's contract situation, meaning he could well be entering his final year under contract with Minnesota. 

As Mark Polishuk wrote recently at MLB Trade Rumors, "If Baldelli is indeed heading into a lame-duck year, the ownership situation might prevent the skipper from getting at least another season added to his deal, just so a new owner could potentially have a clean slate in evaluating things once they take over the team."

One thing to make clear here is that managerial contracts and lame-duck status are not necessarily all the meaningful. I distinctly recall the level of chatter around Ron Gardenhire heading into his final season under contract back in 2013, coming off back-to-back last-place finishes. It was enough that Terry Ryan felt compelled to address the topic directly. 

"I expect Ron to be on this job for a long time," the former Twins general manager told Yahoo! Sports early that season. "I don't consider it lame duck at all."

Sure enough, despite leading the club to 90-plus losses in a third straight season, Gardenhire was extended for two more years, through 2015. Exactly 12 months later, however, he was fired in the wake of another lousy campaign.

So the idea of Baldelli being a "lame duck manager," if indeed he is in that position, should be taken with a grain of salt. That being said, it's a worthwhile topic to discuss here as we turn our attention to the season ahead, and the future of the Twins franchise. 

 

As mentioned above, the potential for an upcoming ownership transition could be motivating the Twins to maintain maximum flexibility with their leadership structure (aside from entrenching Falvey at the center of everything). Also, as Rosenthal wrote at the end of last season, Baldelli ranks highly among MLB managers deserving of scrutiny. 

"Baldelli, 43, has appeared more frustrated in the past six weeks than at any point during his six years as manager," Rosenthal observed. "His team’s lack of edge, though, would appear partly his own doing."

If you've followed my commentary on him in the past, then you're probably aware I consider myself a fan of Baldelli. Players love him, he's extremely competitive (despite the laid-back demeanor), and I think his decision-making processes are generally sound.

Objectively, though, one can't help but at least wonder if Rocco is really resonating and getting the most out of his guys at this point. The freefall experienced by the Twins in August and September was astonishing, and it has to reflect on the skipper to some degree. What really strikes me is how helpless and lost this team looked in the absence of its on-field leaders Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton. In his manager hot-seat article, Rosenthal specifically noted Correa's remarks about teammates lacking urgency.

Beyond those intangible factors, Baldelli's tactical approach also greatly deteriorated in the second half of the season. From my view, there was a certain stubbornness in his steadfast refusal to deviate from a preset philosophy – e.g. pull starters early, play matchups obsessively, pinch-hit Manuel Margot whenever possible – even when it no longer made sense.

Baldelli's decision to turn to waiver pickup (now KBO pitcher) Cole Irvin against Boston in late September, with the season on life support, stands out in my mind as perhaps the worst decision I've ever seen him make. It was baffling, and representative of the ill-fated overthinking we saw from him time and again as the club spiraled.

 

But you know what? That decision didn't cost the Twins their season. None of Baldelli's decisions did. And while he certainly owns some of the blame for what happened, the players shoulder far more. Collectively, they all went through that hell together, and hopefully they will ultimately come out better for it. 

"This will bother me forever," Baldelli said after the 2024 season's bitter end. “There will be no way around that. I will think about it a lot and I will use it to motivate myself in a lot of different ways going forward, because I never want to experience that again.”

Well, here's his chance. Maybe his last one. I'm eager to see how Rocco Baldelli and the Minnesota Twins respond.

Want to learn about Baldelli's place in the historical lineage of Twins managers? Check out my recent article: A Brief History of Twins Managers

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[dxpavelka]

Hard for some to accept but they can't "will" their way into a managerial change.

 

Edited January 2, 2025 by Squirrel
Edited out name calling

[Craig Arko]

I’d say it depends on the status of the sale. New ownership would probably clean house and find their own people.

[Whitey333]

Baldelli is a poor situational manager.  Probably one of the worst we've had.

[Aerodeliria]

Just drop the 'duck' part....

[insagt1]

I can't think of another organization not named 'orioles' who has done less to improve their team so far for 2025. Don't know how Rocco can do much better with a roster that disappeared collectively in 2024. It's frustrating bring a fan of 2 teams that 'could' do more but continue to play the small market card and shop the basements and dumpsters hoping to find a misplaced diamond in the rough.

[T.O.]

23 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

Baldelli is a poor situational manager.  Probably one of the worst we've had.

Baldelli makes me think about the definition of insanity, doing the same thing over and over expecting a different result, like pinch hitting Margo 30 times because he puts faith in the match up but not the reality of what's happening on the field.
He also is clueless how to develop promising new players that aren't quite there yet.
If he's liked by the players is it because he's too laid back. too mechanical, too disconnected ?

If I had to choose between making logical roster changes and keeping Baldelli or dumping Baldelli and keeping the same roster I'd go with the later.

[old nurse]

The price paid for the collapse of 2024 was paid by Levine who was the architect of a flawed roster. Baldelli, or any other manager, is only as good as the talent they have to work see. See Tom Kelly 

[LambchoP]

I think this may be his last year. If Twins get a new owners next year, they may want to clean house and get a "new look team" out there with new players and new coaches. I'm all for it. We can't continue to do the same exact things year after year and expect to do better somehow. Refuse to invest in the team, build no depth, refuse to change coaching strategies that don't work, make bad managerial decisions, cut more payroll, trade off core guys, and then try to tell us fans "this year will be different, we'll be better. Just spend your money at the ballpark and all will be well." New owners cannot get here soon enough, we've suffered for too long now :)

[Doctor Gast]

I like Falvey & really like Baldelli. Falvey was signed to develop a pitching pipeline, he has slowly but surely done so. But IMO he is almost in everything else incompetent yet he wants to control everything. So he has put yes men in key positions- Zoll, Baldelli, Tinglers, Conger & Watkins. Analytics is very important but it's not the end all. Analytics, w/o the right philosophy or fundamentals, is useless also IMO there has to be a balance & MLB experience & feel for the game are more important. We are imbalanced where weird analysis rules & we need to clean house, that means Tinglers, Conger & Watkins are gone. Falvey's duties are limited to the business & pitching departments., Keep Zoll where he was & get a GM who is able to initiate & close essential trades, IMO that is the most important duty of a GM the rest can be delegated.

I said all that to emphasize that Baldelli was put in a position to fail. Baldelli has the potential to become a very good manager. In '19, it'd have been more beneficial to have kept Molitor, let him run the show & put Baldelli as bench manager to help Molitor with the analytics & at the same time glean from Molitor's baseball knowledge. Baldelli's early success came from balanced bench coaches Derek Sheldon & Mike Bell's guidance. Tingler was the extreme opposite. IMO the best solution is to demote Baldelli to bench coach & let him learn to be a manager the right way. But for that to happen, there needs to be changes. 

[TopGunn#22]

The focus of this article is on Rocco and I will say that unless we have a very fun year as Twins fans, and the possibility is there with the core talent we have and the expected bounce back by certain key players like Lewis and Lopez to name just 2, there is also the real chance we finish 3rd or 4th and out of the playoffs again.  

In that scenario, Rocco is toast.  New ownership will probably want a fresh start with "their guy."

But I don't think anybody can make the assumption that Derek Falvey is secure in any way.  Again, if the Twins battle for the division crown and make the playoffs, both Rocco and Falvey probably stick around, but on a short leash.  If we finish 3rd or 4th and out of the playoffs once again, I expect Falvey to be packing his bags as well.

Many of us don't think Rocco is a good "in game" manager.  I've never liked the way he handles his bullpen and the 2nd inning pinch hitting drives me crazy, especially after the opposing manager changes pitchers and renders the platoon PH move null the next inning.

But with all the "holes" the Twins need to fill this off season and the lack of action as we hit the New Year, a failure to make the playoffs will fall squarely on Falvey's shoulders.  New ownership could rightfully determine that Falvey should have pushed the Pohlad's harder to allow him to fortify the weak areas.  I'm not really sure Falvey himself understands that HIS JOB is more at risk than Rocco's.  

[killertwinfan]

If he was worth anything he wouldn’t want to come back to an ownership group that routinely underinvests in its roster.  Frankly I don’t care if he comes back or not. 

[old nurse]

If Baledi were to be replaced it would have been at the end of last season. The fifth starter fiasco started it.. Then the 4th outfielder Margo. There was not a single analytic that would ever point to Margo being a pinch hitter.  The left handed side of the bullpen collapses. When the trade deadline came and went without any correction I felt like Baldelli put up a finger to the FO and pitched the rookie pitchers up to their pitch limit., irregardless of the score. Margot got to pinch hit more. Falvey fired the architect, not the shop foreman 

[Otaknam]

Rocco’s dogmatic adherence to analytics has always frustrated me. His inflexibility ignores a manager’s intuition and showing situational confidence in players. I think Rocco and the front office agree on the obsessive focus on  analytics. Whenever the future ownership assumes control, I don’t think they will make immediate managerial and front office changes until they have time to review every aspect of the operation. It is generally believed that the players really like Rocco and have confidence in him as a manager, so that should carry some weight.

[USAFChief]

Baldelli can't be gone soon enough.

 

 

[Vanimal46]

When all else fails, and engagement is needed on this website, write an article about Rocco Baldelli. A fool proof way of getting comments. 

[jmlease1]

well, the idea that a manager can't be effective if they're in the last year of their contract is a myth that's been promulgated by...managers and coaches, across almost every sport. It's self-serving at best, complete BS at worst.

But I'm not all that surprised that an extension hasn't happened for several reasons. The team had an epic collapse to end the season, the second one in three years (although Baldelli was hardly to blame for the first one) and it's not unfair to wonder whether he was starting to lose his grip on the team. With the current ownership group selling the team, not extending the manager is a gift to the next ownership group, who may want to put their own guy in place, not because it's always the smart decision but it's just the sort of thing new owners do. new owners always want to make a splash, show they're in control, that there's a new sheriff in town, blah blah blah ownershipcakes. Picking a new manager is a nice high profile move, and usually easier than anything on the player side of it.

I think Baldelli is...fine. When his players are healthy and playing well, he looks great, and when they're not he doesn't. he's not a disaster, despite the loathing he engenders from some of the folks around here (the hatred is almost comical at times, especially as people make up things about him to fit their narrative, pretend to be able to read his mind, or act as if the modern style of baseball is something uniquely related to "Baldelli Ball" or something). he was overrated when he won Manager of the Year (which much like in the NFL goes to the manager who is believed to have overachieved from what their perceived talent was in the preseason more than any kind of objective "best"), underrated when the team finished last, and falls into the mushy middle of baseball managers. In terms of managers that win more games than they "should" because of their consistently superior game management; that number is perishingly small, and most fans drastically overestimate the impact of managerial in-game decisions. A lot of what constitutes the modern managerial role is behind the scenes in handling the egos, player development, strain of the long grinding season, etc and fans have less information about that now (despite the internet) than ever, because players are much more carefully handled by their own management teams and management doesn't talk about it.

I won't be crushed if Baldelli gets moved on by a new ownership (he's plenty rich, he'll be just fine), but i won't be rejoicing either. (Baldelli is fine and baseball managers are frequently overrated).

[CRF]

I invoke my 5th amendment rights...I refuse to answer on the grounds that it may incriminate me. 

[purplesoldier4u]

2 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Hard for some to accept but they can't "will" their way into a managerial change.

 

That being the case, Rocco must be feeling the same as most fans in wondering what the FO is doing to help make his job easier. The Twins seems like a handful of teams that seem to have no interest in winning, nor do they care about their fans. In the words of Joe Mauer, "it's frustrating." 

[sweetmusicviola16]

46 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

The focus of this article is on Rocco and I will say that unless we have a very fun year as Twins fans, and the possibility is there with the core talent we have and the expected bounce back by certain key players like Lewis and Lopez to name just 2, there is also the real chance we finish 3rd or 4th and out of the playoffs again.  

In that scenario, Rocco is toast.  New ownership will probably want a fresh start with "their guy."

But I don't think anybody can make the assumption that Derek Falvey is secure in any way.  Again, if the Twins battle for the division crown and make the playoffs, both Rocco and Falvey probably stick around, but on a short leash.  If we finish 3rd or 4th and out of the playoffs once again, I expect Falvey to be packing his bags as well.

Many of us don't think Rocco is a good "in game" manager.  I've never liked the way he handles his bullpen and the 2nd inning pinch hitting drives me crazy, especially after the opposing manager changes pitchers and renders the platoon PH move null the next inning.

But with all the "holes" the Twins need to fill this off season and the lack of action as we hit the New Year, a failure to make the playoffs will fall squarely on Falvey's shoulders.  New ownership could rightfully determine that Falvey should have pushed the Pohlad's harder to allow him to fortify the weak areas.  I'm not really sure Falvey himself understands that HIS JOB is more at risk than Rocco's.  

The thing is this has not been a fun team to watch for four full seasons now. Whether that's on Baldalli, Falvey, the analytics Department or all of the above.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I believe Rocco's contract status is more dependent on the current ownership situation more than anything else.  It will be interesting to see how this get's addressed as the season goes on.

Signing an extension or being let go (especially if the team underperforms), either option would not really surprise me. 

[mnfireman]

46 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

When all else fails, and engagement is needed on this website, write an article about Rocco Baldelli. A fool proof way of getting comments. 

I prefer these types of articles compared to the non-sensical trade for/sign player X trash that has been on here most of this winter. As long as posters can keep their arguments logical and point out actual shortcomings and not just their individual biases and/or "Rocco sucks" it could lead to some interesting discussions.

[MMMordabito]

Please, let it be so.

[jmlease1]

35 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

The thing is this has not been a fun team to watch for four full seasons now. Whether that's on Baldalli, Falvey, the analytics Department or all of the above.

the 2023 team was very fun. I like winning, and the playoffs were amazing. Loved the starting pitching, Duran nuking people as the closer, and the sheer joy of Mr Grand Slam in the second half. But if you're pining for a return to the baseball of the late 70's early 80's with lots of bunting, starters throwing 300+ innings, and astro turf as far as the eye can see, then you're not going to have any fun watching baseball these days.

[Doctor Gast]

As far as being a lame duck, it isn't really pertinent when it comes to baseball. Players in the last year of their contract don't just float through, they try their best so they can resign or sign for a better contract. If Baldelli really loves baseball, which I think a prerequisite for a manager should be, he'll do his best to get resigned or make it easier to find the next job. 

[mikelink45]

I'm always wondering how much difference a manager makes but the pinch hitting and the yanking of pitchers drives me crazy. I think they need somebody with more fire and I will ask the question that I've put out many times without getting a good answer. What are the bench coaches and the assistant bench coaches doing?  I just don't understand how we can have all of those coaches 12 total and not get some better decisions at times. Does Balldelli just overruled them

[sweetmusicviola16]

7 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

the 2023 team was very fun. I like winning, and the playoffs were amazing. Loved the starting pitching, Duran nuking people as the closer, and the sheer joy of Mr Grand Slam in the second half. But if you're pining for a return to the baseball of the late 70's early 80's with lots of bunting, starters throwing 300+ innings, and astro turf as far as the eye can see, then you're not going to have any fun watching baseball these days.

Many posters were saying as of the first week of August of 2023 that the team wasn't fun to watch. I also felt that way. The last 7 weeks of 2023 the team finally got kick started.

[karcherd]

We don't know if Baldelli has been extended or not, when they extended him in 2022 it did not become public for a year and a half.  For some reason we don't need to know the status of the manager per the front office actions.  As for Baldelli staying or not, I really think we need a new manager.  His strategic moves are more of an organizational philosophy which I believe is unbalanced towards analytics.  So I don't put all the blame on him for those.  But where he is falling short is in player development.  Very few players come to the majors as a complete player, there still needs to be development.  And who has been developed and gotten better especially on the position side.  Is it his style, he likes to say the players know what needs to be done to get ready for a game, maybe younger players need more guidance to learn what it takes.  Not sure if that is happening or not.  Our fundamentals are lacking, that is on the coaching staff and the manager.  Stop moving players around, let them become good at one position and become comfortable.  You don't win with 13 utility players.  Lewis not knowing his position at this point of the offseason is ridiculous, he could be the face of this franchise.  He needs a position so he can learn and get comfortable, let's see if the results are better then.

[Schmoeman5]

5 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

As far as being a lame duck, it isn't really pertinent when it comes to baseball. Players in the last year of their contract don't just float through, they try their best so they can resign or sign for a better contract. If Baldelli really loves baseball, which I think a prerequisite for a manager should be, he'll do his best to get resigned or make it easier to find the next job. 

He'll do his best? So he can get re-signed? And then what? Go back to being mediocre at best 👌 Every ML coach loves baseball. Thats why they do it.A prerequisite? Is that a question on the job application? Or does that question get asked during the face to face interview part?

[Doctor Gast]

10 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I'm always wondering how much difference a manager makes but the pinch hitting and the yanking of pitchers drives me crazy. I think they need somebody with more fire and I will ask the question that I've put out many times without getting a good answer. What are the bench coaches and the assistant bench coaches doing?  I just don't understand how we can have all of those coaches 12 total and not get some better decisions at times. Does Balldelli just overruled them

I believe Tingler's main job is to pre-analyze possible future situations so they can promptly have the analytical solution if & when they occur.