Should the Minnesota Twins Reunite with Veteran Starter Rich Hill?

[Nick Nelson]

At 44, the well traveled left-hander is ramping up to join a contender for a late-season push. The Twins have history with Rich Hill, and a very clear need in the rotation, so it's no surprise they are rumored to be among his suitors.

Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

In so many ways, 2020 feels like a lifetime ago. Those memories have become distant: The explosion of the COVID-19 pandemic, the delayed start to an abbreviated MLB season, the strange dynamics of playing a limited regional schedule in empty ballparks. Generally speaking, it's a period most of us would like to forget.

But one fun element of that Twins season was the presence of Rich Hill, a veteran left-hander who was joining his eighth team at age 40, looking to reinforce a team coming off a 100-win season with championship aspirations. Even then, Hill needed to be managed carefully, struggling to stay healthy and throwing only 38 innings as a Twin. Still, he was useful, posting a 3.03 ERA for the repeat division winners.

It was a good show, watching him craftily navigate big-league lineups with an upper-80s fastball thanks to command, grit, and his trademark curve. Hill would grunt with effort and shout with competitive emotion on the mound. He was valued in the clubhouse and liked by his teammates.

These qualities have helped Hill stick around for three more seasons since, accumulating 430 innings from 2021 through 2023 for the Rays, Mets, Red Sox, Padres and Pirates. He's been a mercenary, rotating through different pitching staffs at a dizzying pace. Now, Hill is looking for one last job, and he wants to make it count.

Could a return to the Twins be the perfect fit for both sides?
Hill signaled to teams ahead of the season that he intended to sit out the first half. As Steve Adams explains at MLB Trade Rumors: 

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"Waiting until later in the season affords MLB’s elder statesmen some perks beyond potentially keeping him fresh. Most importantly, Hill has spoken on record before about the additional time he was able to spend with his family, coaching his son’s team. Signing in August also ensures that he’s able to land with a club that has a good shot at making the postseason."

The time has come. Hill hosted a showcase for scouts last week, in hopes of demonstrating his readiness. Afterward, Dan Hayes of The Athletic tweeted that the Twins "are in contact" with Hill and his representatives. It's a logical inquiry given not only Minnesota's history with the veteran, but also their increasingly dire need for starting pitching depth.

 

Joe Ryan is likely out for the season after suffering a muscle strain in his shoulder. Chris Paddack remains sidelined indefinitely, and seems tough to count on going forward as a rotation member. The Twins currently find themselves depending on an exorbitant number of rookies and young arms, starting Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, Zebby Matthews and Louie Varland in the span of five crucial games against division rivals.

Relying on a rotation with little collective experience in crunch time is a perilous thing, and the situation is even more dicey when you consider the ramifications of even one more injury to a starter. As a byproduct of their inactivity at the trade deadline, the Twins have as great a need for a pitcher like Hill as any contender in the league. 

And they are a bona fide contender, meaning Minnesota fits Hill's chief criterion. He wants to throw meaningful innings during what may be his last hurrah. He'd certainly have that opportunity for a Twins team that is in the thick of a tight, three-team division race, currently possessing the second Wild Card spot in the American League.

So, should the Twins make a push for Hill? I can't see why not. It's important to keep expectations in check – we're talking about a 44-year-old who, even back in 2020, was far from dominant. Since then, he has a 4.51 ERA and 4.40 FIP. Last year, he was downright bad, posting an 81 ERA+ with his worst WHIP in over a decade. 

But it bears noting that Hill was vastly better in the first half (4.45 ERA in 16 starts through June) than the second (6.91 ERA in 16 starts after June), as fatigue evidently set in. The first number might not wow you, but it'd be just fine for the Twins' needs, especially since Hill completed five or more innings in 14 of those 16 first-half starts.

Theoretically, 10 months of downtime and a four- or five-week season could help Hill maximize whatever he's got left. If he can give the Twins even a handful of starts at something approximating league-average effectiveness, it'd go a long way toward relieving the burden on Minnesota's rookie starters and beleaguered bullpen.

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I say: why the heck not? What are your thoughts: Should the Twins get aggressive in their pursuit of the grizzled veteran lefty? Or would you prefer to stick with the in-house options?

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[William K Johnson]

No.  I would rather we throw some young arms in there and see what happens.

[tony&rodney]

Hill has mountains of experience but his margin for error on every pitch is so small that he needs a field of shamrocks surrounding him to escape 5 innings of MLB at this point. It's an easy no.

[CRF]

No, no, NO!!!

[miracleb]

William nailed it!

[Heistyman]

I say yes it's like adding another pitching coach

[Whitey333]

No.  I'd much rather stick with the young pitchers.  

[Karbo]

I would swim or sink with the rookies. This team has enough hitting to cover up some rookie pitching mistakes most days, so let them go. The experience they gain this year can only help them in the future, and with ownership pinching pennies they will need the youngsters and their lower salaries!

[JDubs]

On the one hand, I absolutely want someone to sign Hill so there's still at least one professional athlete older than me. On the other hand, it's probably best for the Twins to let the young guys get a run and see what we have -- even if we signed Hill, would anyone think he's in line to start a playoff game? It wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to have someone to eat the many innings we still need to fill to get through the season, but I'm just not sure he's any better than the young guys right now, and he obviously doesn't have the long term upside.

[Doctor Gast]

Rich Hill is a well-seasoned & smart veteran who knows what he can do & what he can't do. That is one reason why he uniquely opted out of going the whole season (so you can throw last season's stats out the window because they don't apply to this season). He will eat innings but more importantly, he'll be a stabilizing force to help navigate young rookies through some potentially turbulent times. What impresses me the most about Rich Hill is his ability to mentor young pitchers which will be very valuable for a rookie-dominant (Matthews, Festa, SWR & Varland) rotation that could pay dividends for many years beyond this season. Should the Twins sign Rich Hill? Unequivocally, yes, if we want to win. I didn't see the need to sign veterans Margot & Santana but I definitely see a need here, especially a Rich Hill.

We can hope that nobody else will get burned out or hurt & that volatile rookies will magically act like veterans where we can totally depend on them. But I don't like to operate solely on hope w/o anything to back it up. Plus the LHP Hill could be used in the pen come postseason.

[Linus]

The time to add starting pitching depth was last off season. The Twins have made their bed - let’s roll with the young guys and see how it works out. There is value in the young guys gaining experience for next year even if we miss the playoffs. 

[Peter]

Yes yes yes!!! 

[mickster]

29 minutes ago, JDubs said:

On the one hand, I absolutely want someone to sign Hill so there's still at least one professional athlete older than me. On the other hand, it's probably best for the Twins to let the young guys get a run and see what we have -- even if we signed Hill, would anyone think he's in line to start a playoff game? It wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to have someone to eat the many innings we still need to fill to get through the season, but I'm just not sure he's any better than the young guys right now, and he obviously doesn't have the long term upside.

I think it is a good idea for depth.  This can push Varland to the BP and allow us to compensate for short starts from Festa and Zebby.   

[hitterscount]

No thanks, the young arms can match his ceiling/poor production which and potentially blow by it. 

[JD-TWINS]

The guy is 44….the Pirates didn’t re-sign him.

The mentoring thoughts are nice but if he gets signed, the assumption is he pitches for the Big Club per some predetermined conversation, as I assume he’s looking to help and be part of a MLB club with only 43 games remaining in the season…… He may never meet Zebby Matthews let alone mentor him.

His stuff hardly plays as well as Matthews, as evidenced last night.

He would displace Matthews in any rotation spot and he needs a 40 man spot immediately even if he starts in St Paul for a week or two.

All these same things could be said about Varland as well. Varland twice through the line-up is way more suited to MLB competition v. Rich Hill twice through the line-up.…..in 2024.

A guy throwing 3 2/3 or maybe 5 1/3 on a good day, isn’t eating innings. He’s a stress on the Pen! TWINS need to be as competitive as possible and don’t need “a guy” to throw out there every 5 days.

Would Team rather have Matthews start 3-4 more games between now and October in order to give guys a break v. Hill?

To me, this being considered is not a realistic path for the Club…….just my opinion.

Lopez - Ober - SWR - Festa - Varland …… Matthews, as needed.

I get these guys are young and unproven over long stretches but I cannot come up with any desire to have Rich Hill displace any of the 4.

[Mortimerkenny21]

[Old Crow]

Only if he pays us to play.

[USAFChief]

I'd say yes.

But I also suspect, if this was gonna happen, it already would have. 

[nicksaviking]

Please advise: which current pitcher loses a rotation spot to the guy who's heater tops out at 88 MPH?

[Fat Calvin]

He could take the place of Thielbar.

[Otaknam]

A scrap heap addition instead of developing a young starter? This screams of desperation that won’t spend money. No thanks!

[Trov]

If they think he is the best of what we could send out there sure, but I think leaning on the kids would be better move. 

[USAFChief]

6 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Please advise: which current pitcher loses a rotation spot to the guy who's heater tops out at 88 MPH?

Varland, or Festa.

Then proceed as events dictate. 

But again, if this was gonna happen, it already would have. 

[jorgenswest]

If they had already signed Hill would they have brought up Matthews?

[NYCTK]

Is he better than Dobnak? If so, he yes of course. If not, there's no need. But I'm leaning towards yes. 

[IndianaTwin]

38 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

....He would displace Matthews in any rotation spot and he needs a 40 man spot immediately even if he starts in St Paul for a week or two....

 

He could easily sign a minor league deal with opt out after a two weeks. That's what they did with Keuchel last year. He wouldn't need the 40-man spot until (if) he gets called up. 

I'm guessing that's how most teams would address it with him. I don't see a contender starting him without at least a couple tune-ups. If he's willing to go that route, I'm all on board. A minor league deal doesn't guarantee you use him. If he pitches well, but they don't need him, let him walk. If he pitches poorly, let him walk. But if he pitches well and Varland/Festa don't give what you want, he's an available body. Meanwhile, St. Paul gets an extra pitching coach.  

But I agree with Chief in thinking that if it was going to happen, it would have been done by now. 

[Jeff K]

7 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

He could easily sign a minor league deal with opt out after a two weeks. That's what they did with Keuchel last year. He wouldn't need the 40-man spot until (if) he gets called up. 

I'm guessing that's how most teams would address it with him. I don't see a contender starting him without at least a couple tune-ups. If he's willing to go that route, I'm all on board. A minor league deal doesn't guarantee you use him. If he pitches well, but they don't need him, let him walk. If he pitches poorly, let him walk. But if he pitches well and Varland/Festa don't give what you want, he's an available body. Meanwhile, St. Paul gets an extra pitching coach.  

But I agree with Chief in thinking that if it was going to happen, it would have been done by now. 

i suppose a minor league contract doesn't hurt; however, the fact that this is a conversation makes me sad.  Between the off season and the trade deadline, the Twins missed their opportunity for starting pitching depth.

[NYCTK]

 

32 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Please advise: which current pitcher loses a rotation spot to the guy who's heater tops out at 88 MPH?

Depth is important. We have 3 rookies in our rotation right now and our 6 and 7 aren't even AAAA quality. 

[Dman]

It kind of feels like the Twins are done with retreads, but if they want some insurance in case the kids implode I could see them bringing in Hill.  The thing is as we've seen these young guys can hold teams to just a few runs it's just that their starts could be more variable than you would like with implosions along the way.

They did nothing of note at the deadline and they don't want to add salary.  I'd say the odds are low they end up with Hill, but we'll see.

[nicksaviking]

27 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Varland, or Festa.

Then proceed as events dictate. 

But again, if this was gonna happen, it already would have. 

Festa's last four starts are better than any four start stretch Rich Hill has had in four years.

I'm under no illusion that Festa's recent run is an omen for stardom, but the odds that a 44-year-old who hasn't pitched in a year and can no longer strike anyone out will put this team in a better position seems extremely unlikely.