Should the Minnesota Twins Reunite with Veteran Starter Rich Hill?

[nicksaviking]

2 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Just throw the young guys in there & see what happens. It sounds like we got the division all wrapped up, so why not? I'm all for giving our young guys experience, that's what I've been advocating all season. But we haven't even clinched a playoff berth yet. Things can go south very quickly. Paddack was supposed to take Gray's place & pitch 150+ innings, DeSclavani was to be our savior. Ryan was supposed to lead us well into the postseason. Lopez was to win the CYA. How long can Lopez, Ober & SWR keep up this pace? W/O running out of gas or getting injured? Can we depend on Festa & Matthews to pitch like seasoned MLB veterans? when they aren't even seasoned MiLB players or even high level of college playoffs. We can't depend on Varland to pitch more than 2X through the order. Festa & Matthews are going to get a lot more experience than anybody could have imagined just a short time ago. So I wouldn't worry about taking innings away from them. I want Festa & Matthew's experience to be a very positive one. Putting too much pressure on them isn't the way. Being mentored by Hill is the way.

Should they sign Hill? The answer is yes. Are they going to? IMO, no. Why? IMO the FO doesn't feel they have to do something, so they'll play it safe & do nothing

My question with these takes is why would you assume Rich Hill will be better than what's currently available? Just because he's a veteran?

Here's how I see it. Do I want Hill (or Paddock) starting on the mound in an elimination game in the playoffs? Hell no. Do I want Matthews or Festa on the mound? Probably not. But at least there's a probably in there. They have a month and a half to change my mind; if you stick them in AAA and go with Hill, that option is off the table.

[NYCTK]

5 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

My question with these takes is why would you assume Rich Hill will be better than what's currently available? Just because he's a veteran?

Here's how I see it. Do I want Hill (or Paddock) starting on the mound in an elimination game in the playoffs? Hell no. Do I want Matthews or Festa on the mound? Probably not. But at least there's a probably in there. They have a month and a half to change my mind; if you stick them in AAA and go with Hill, that option is off the table.

So you can guarantee no further injury to the rotation? Nice, I'm relieved then.

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, NYCTK said:

So you can guarantee no further injury to the rotation? Nice, I'm relieved then.

If the goal is to win a championship, it's too late in the year to bench potential for safety. This is an April move, not a mid August move. The team made their bed in the offseason, it's time to lie in it.

[NYCTK]

1 minute ago, nicksaviking said:

If the goal is to win a championship, it's too late in the year to bench potential for safety. This is an April move, not a mid August move. The team made their bed on the offseason, it's time to lie in it.

No one's talking about benching potential. We're looking to remove Varland from the rotation because he's simply not a starting pitcher at this point in his career. Maybe he's like Lugo, and after some time in the big leagues he figures out how to face a batter a second time, but he should not be starting on a contender. 

I repeat again...there's over a quarter of the season remaining! 

[Doctor Gast]

9 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

My question with these takes is why would you assume Rich Hill will be better than what's currently available? Just because he's a veteran?

Here's how I see it. Do I want Hill (or Paddock) starting on the mound in an elimination game in the playoffs? Hell no. Do I want Matthews or Festa on the mound? Probably not. But at least there's a probably in there. They have a month and a half to change my mind; if you stick them in AAA and go with Hill, that option is off the table.

Where do you get that I ever said to keep Festa & Matthew in AAA? & overload Hill, SWR, Lopez & Ober with Varland in the rotation? With Hill in the rotation, we'll be free to put Varland in the BP & evenly distribute innings to keep all arms including Festa & Matthews fresh & healthy.  Our objective now isn't who'll start the elimination game in the playoff (that'll work itself out, whether it's a BP game or other). It has to be to nail down a playoff berth by adding to all our options on the table not to limit them, when things don't work out the way they say it will.

[mikelink45]

I suspect this article is doing what you expected and getting tons of posts - I would add my NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOo and suggest we go after Sandy Koufax - he is still alive and breathing.

[nicksaviking]

15 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Where do you get that I ever said to keep Festa & Matthew in AAA? & overload Hill, SWR, Lopez & Ober with Varland in the rotation? With Hill in the rotation, we'll be free to put Varland in the BP & evenly distribute innings to keep all arms including Festa & Matthews fresh & healthy.  Our objective now isn't who'll start the elimination game in the playoff (that'll work itself out, whether it's a BP game or other). It has to be to nail down a playoff berth by adding to all our options on the table not to limit them, when things don't work out the way they say it will.

If we're talking a 6 man rotation, then fine, they can add Hill over Varland.

But I don't have interest if the goal is simply to nail down a playoff spot just to be happy to be invited as an underdog. That plan hasn't worked for this franchise in 40 years. The goal needs to be to roster the highest upside players so this team is one of the favorites should they get to the post season.

I'll take aiming for the top with the downside of missing the playoffs over accepting a no-chance-in-hell early round exit.

[Azviking101]

I say yes. Add hill to the rotation, that will allow Varland to move to the pen 

Instant upgrade to the bullpen and probably a little more consistent of a rotation 

[Captain]

 Just say no old Dick Mountain

[Mike Sixel]

40 minutes ago, Azviking101 said:

I say yes. Add hill to the rotation, that will allow Varland to move to the pen 

Instant upgrade to the bullpen and probably a little more consistent of a rotation 

Six man rotation?

[Rufus]

No the Karma seems to be flowing just fine right now, why mess with it

[dex8425]

No. I'd rather sign Trevor Bauer if signing someone outside the organization at this point.

[nicksaviking]

27 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Six man rotation?

I could be talked into a six man rotation to shorten the innings workload of the young arms, but only if Rich Hill AND BALDELLI understand that his seniority buys him absolutely nothing.

But if that's the path, is a rusty Rich Hill really any better of an option than Randy Dobnak, whom I also have no interest in?

[NYCTK]

3 minutes ago, dex8425 said:

No. I'd rather sign Trevor Bauer if signing someone outside the organization at this point.

Great way to ruin the entire season. At least the Twins would replace the Yankees or Dodgers as every other fanbase's most hated team that way. 

[Mike Sixel]

17 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I could be talked into a six man rotation to shorten the innings workload of the young arms, but only if Rich Hill AND BALDELLI understand that his seniority buys him absolutely nothing.

But if that's the path, is a rusty Rich Hill really any better of an option than Randy Dobnak, whom I also have no interest in?

I have zero interest in Hill. I'm happy to go with what they have. My question was adding Hill would give them six starters even with varland to the pen....

[bean5302]

Steamer projections:
Randy Dobnak** - 3.92 ERA, 7.39 K/9, 2.95 BB/9
David Festa - 4.00 ERA, 9.09 K/9, 3.03 BB/9
Zebby Matthews - 4.03 ERA, 7.43 K/9, 1.73 BB/9
Caleb Boushley - 4.26 ERA, 6.47 K/9, 1.81 BB/9
Andrew Morris - 4.47 ERA, 6.59 K/9, 2.53 BB/9
Adam Plutko* - 4.60 ERA, 7.16 K/9, 2.58 BB/9
Rich Hill - 4.64 ERA, 7.31 K/9, 3.17 BB/9
*Plutko is on the 7 day IL with a forearm strain. No word I've seenon how bad it is or expected return.
**Other projections are much more pessimistic than Steamer with ERA's from 4.26 just over 5.00

I really don't get why people are so convinced Hill will be even serviceable at the MLB level. Or ready before September for that matter. He'd also have to be better than a number of options in the system already.

Projection tools are hardly perfect, but for a seasoned veteran like Rich Hill, they're certainly worth noting, and they're not biased by people's opinions, fond memories or ideology. He's dead last among the pitchers listed above in Steamer projections for ERA. I didn't include Varland since steamer projects him as a reliever.

[USAFChief]

I think IndianaTwin's point needs to be re-emphasized: a team signing Hill is going to want at least one AAA start, probably more, before a big league start. 

What's the downside of 2 or 3 St Paul starts for Hill? 

If there's a later need, at least you have a option.

And I'd be surprised if he's not better than Varland, BTW

 

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, USAFChief said:

I think IndianaTwin's point needs to be re-emphasized: a team signing Hill is going to want at least one AAA start, probably more, before a big league start. 

What's the downside of 2 or 3 St Paul starts for Hill? 

If there's a later need, at least you have a option.

And I'd be surprised if he's not better than Varland, BTW

 

Last year Hill had a 5.4 era.... I'm not sure varland is that bad. Could be.... But varland is currently the sixth starter. So I'm not sure that matters.

[USAFChief]

7 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Last year Hill had a 5.4 era.... I'm not sure varland is that bad. Could be.... But varland is currently the sixth starter. So I'm not sure that matters.

1. Louie was at 6.46 going into today. With a WHIP over 1.6

2. "Currently." Can we count on nobody else leaving the rotation?

 

What would it hurt to put him in St Paul for a few weeks?

[jud6312]

6 hours ago, NYCTK said:

I get what you're putting down, but that's just not even close to true. 

It's closer than you'd think.

Hill

2020: 0-0, 2,84 ERA, 19 IP, 16/9 K/BB

2021: 2-1, 1.02 ERA, 26.1 IP, 26/9 K/BB

2022: 1-0. 0.94 ERA, 19 IP, 15/4 K/BB

2023: 3-1, 1.92 ERA, 21.1 IP, 19/7 K/

 

Festa

24: 1-1, 2.84 ERA, 17.2 IP, 25/8 K/BB

[NYCTK]

45 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

 

And I'd be surprised if he's not better than Varland, BTW

Varland had a "good" day today, second and third time through the order batters only had an OPS of 823! But important to note only 2 Ks in 17 PAs. If I'm not mistaken that's a BABIP of 0.154.

[NYCTK]

1 minute ago, jud6312 said:

It's closer than you'd think.

Hill

2020: 0-0, 2,84 ERA, 19 IP, 16/9 K/BB

2021: 2-1, 1.02 ERA, 26.1 IP, 26/9 K/BB

2022: 1-0. 0.94 ERA, 19 IP, 15/4 K/BB

2023: 3-1, 1.92 ERA, 21.1 IP, 19/7 K/

 

Festa

24: 1-1, 2.84 ERA, 17.2 IP, 25/8 K/BB

I mean...that's not even close to close? 

Which isn't to say I don't like Festa! 

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

1. Louie was at 6.46 going into today. With a WHIP over 1.6

2. "Currently." Can we count on nobody else leaving the rotation?

 

What would it hurt to put him in St Paul for a few weeks?

I'm fine sticking him in St. Paul from now until he turns 80, but will he even sign with the Twins without a guaranteed contract?

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I'm fine sticking him in St. Paul from now until he turns 80, but will he even sign with the Twins without a guaranteed contract?

Didn't have enough money to trade for a RP, and we think they'll sign Hill?

[USAFChief]

5 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I'm fine sticking him in St. Paul from now until he turns 80, but will he even sign with the Twins without a guaranteed contract?

Dunno. I'd imagine any team, if any actually liked what they saw, would expect at least a short AAA stint. So he might not have a choice. 

In any case, to repeat, this would have already happened. 

There's no money anyway.

[jud6312]

Just now, NYCTK said:

I mean...that's not even close to close? 

But it puts into context how poorly Hill pitched in his other 28 outings. When he was a year younger than he currently is. 

 

 

 

[nicksaviking]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Didn't have enough money to trade for a RP, and we think they'll sign Hill?

You risk alienating all the Trevor Richard fans on this site.

[Shaitan]

If the rookies have an innings cap, sign him to a Dallas Kuechel role.

Of course, last year DK was awful and they'd clinched the division.

And I think Hill was holding out for a bigger role than mopup innings.

But I think it's smart to be "in contact." One more injury and...who the hell knows what happens.

[D.C Twins]

9 hours ago, NYCTK said:

Honestly, I am very worried about Correa now. It's been over a month and there's no reason to believe he'll be better in another month. I will say though, Rosario might be worse than Castro at SS. 

I wonder if Correa's feet were what caused the other teams to back off signing him....

[Rosterman]

No matter how good he may think he is, he would still need 10-12 days in the minors, making either three appearances or two starts to prove some worth. That and whatever his asking price would be...time is running out.

Could the Twins use him? Sure. Because the Twins have to start watching the innings of their youngstarters, maybe even sending SWR down for some 3-inning stints at AAA just to pitch and stay fresh, but not have the pressure of the major leagues.

Festa and Matthews could still plunge backwards. Putting more pressure on a bullpen.